Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

For lurkers who may read similar stuff that I do:

Here.  Deep dive.

"... The facts presented herein compel an alternative theory as to the origin of the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak. The truth remains to be formally investigated whether infected viral bio-matter from the National Biosafety Laboratory at Wuhan Institute of Virology — the only lab of its kind in all of China and under expressed safety concerns for almost a year — somehow escaped. And, if so, it also remains to be seen whether such a viral release and subsequent viral infection was accidental or intentional. In any event, the following observations and concerns seem to place considerable suspicion on the laboratory — and its Senior Scientist and Principal Investigator, Prof. Zhengli Shi — and its contemporaneous coronavirus research activity at the exact time of the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak officially reported at a location conveniently just 8.6 miles distant at Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, just across the Yangtze River:  ..."

 

 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Evil looking little bastard, isn't it?

Those glycoprotein spikes are similar to the ones the Influenza virus has--the ones that mutate at the drop of a hat. 

Those of you who took genetics recall the common fruit fly: Drosophila melanogaster. Remember how quickly they mutated? During my semester studying them, our lab got filled with smoke from someone's Bunsen burner cooking something bizarre. Well, the entire population mutated wildly. That's about how fast these glycoprotein-spiked viruses change. 

Hopefully, with a little luck, this snake flu is going to be just another pesky viral illness. Thing is, if these outbreaks of new strains are shared internationally, the CDC has the expertise to really get at the thing quickly. We don't often give them credit, but the CDC stands between us and biological disaster each and every day. 

[Otis11 + 551]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

"In any event, the following observations and concerns seem to place considerable suspicion on the laboratory — and its Senior Scientist and Principal Investigator, Prof. Zhengli Shi — and its contemporaneous coronavirus research activity at the exact time of the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak officially reported at a location conveniently just 8.6 miles distant at Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, just across the Yangtze River:  ..."

 

Quite the coincidence!

...Seriously... read Tom's Link.

https://medium.com/@siradrianbond/coronavirus-2019-ncov-part-1-d6a338eed7c5

That's just crazy...

[0R0 + 6,251]

10 hours ago, wrs said:

Infection rate appears to be declining.

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177941.shtml

Confirmed cases up 30%, slower than 50%+ yesterday. Note that cases in Hubei are growing more slowly but cases outside Hubei are still growing fast. 

60k are in quarantine and observation as suspected contacts. Down 6k from yesterday. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 hours ago, Otis11 said:

Quite the coincidence!

...Seriously... read Tom's Link.

https://medium.com/@siradrianbond/coronavirus-2019-ncov-part-1-d6a338eed7c5

That's just crazy...

Not really crazy, just a not quite ready for primetime biocontainment facility working with dangerous viruses exactly like the one involved in this outbreak. Without reference to conspiracies, this is most likely an accidental release by a carrier who contracted the virus in the Biosafety Lab unbeknownst to themselves and went shopping or for lunch at the Wuhan Wet Market.  

The facility got low safety marks in the viral research community and for its proximity to the big city of Wuhan. 

Seems like par for the course wild Chinese action disregarding risk in pursuit of CCP or commercial or scientific goals. 

If I were the Chinese government, I would press on anyone to keep the story under wraps. 

Consider the question of origin answered. 

[luca mattei + 15]

from Reuters:

- All Nippon Airways says flight bookings to and from China plunge due to virus outbreak

   The Japanese airline also said its bookings to China from Japan plunged 60% in the same period.

 

- China urges #food producers to resume production amid virus outbreak

  The coronavirus has led to a jump in prices and insufficient supply of food due to panic buying and disruptions  to    transportation.

Edited January 30, 2020 by luca mattei
Update

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

The overall trend is starting to become apparent.  Again, the width spacing on this graph is wonky, straight out of the classic book "How to Lie with Statistics".

 

Lemme fix this ^ graph spacing a bit by compressing the image to a more suitable scaling:

 

And the map:

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

For your consideration.

Wuhan: A Human Catastrophe.

The coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan exposes the dangers of central planning.

On January 21, 34 days after the Chinese government released the first official report on the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, the number of infected patients had increased dramatically. At the same time, numerous Hubei government officials organized and attended an ornate Lunar New Year gala at the Hongshan Grand Auditorium. Amid a public health crisis, Hubei’s government press release praised an actress, Fengshuang, for having a cold yet “performing in the show with pull perseverance.” (They deleted the post after media backlash—but you can see a screenshot below).

Hubei government press release, now deleted.

Across the Donghu lake, that very week, the Wuhan government told the public that they have enough medical supplies to contain and fight this virus. But while the Wuhan media continues to remain composed, all the hospitals in Wuhan are in a state of pandemonium, facing a shortage of medical resources.

Given that the allocation of medical resources is a bureaucratic matter in China, the crisis is only multiplying. It seems the Wuhan state government is not reporting the facts on the ground to the Chinese central government—which is likely why the Health Commission Ministry is refusing to do much more than quarantine residents.

The tension between what the Chinese people are being told and the coronavirus crisis in Wuhan is a case study in the horrific consequences of central planning and China’s authoritarian system of government.

PUBLIC HEALTH GOVERNANCE IN A CENTRALLY PLANNED BUREAUCRACY 

In China’s centrally planned system, hospitals like Wuhan Fifth Hospital and Wuhan Union Hospital are public hospitals and are trusted to manage local outbreaks on their own. If additional medical resources are needed, protocol demands that those on the front line will contact those in charge to ensure requests for further supplies are made to the relevant national departments.

In Wuhan, however, the lack of public acknowledgment from the local government has forced desperate doctors to turn to social media to ask for donations for medical supplies. It was a risky move; most of them have risked their jobs by going public.

In response, the Ministry of Health Commission issued an order that blocked all hospitals from accepting any overseas donations and most other donations. Despite that fact, all hospitals in the region bravely chose saving lives over capitulating to the government’s demands.

My friend Medwin Zhu, a Chinese-American student at UCLA, cut his quarter short in order to become one of the chiefs of affairs for the largest student volunteer group in North America mobilizing against the medical crisis. When I asked him how I could help, he gave me a list of hospital contractors and asked if I could make some calls. “It is simple,” he instructed, “ask them if the contractor is alive. Because some hospitals have multiple contractors, when we’re checking information, they told us some of them are under quarantine or dead. Then ask them how many supplies they need. If they can’t say the number, ask them the order of magnitude. That’s it.”

During my phone campaign, I spoke with one of the contractors from Wuhan Union hospital, Yan Yi. Yan told me that all hospitals in Wuhan are under a critical medical supply shortage, saying, “We need medical supplies, anything.” When I asked how much, he told me, “Many. Tens of Thousands. The more, the better. The average daily consumption of disposable medical masks in each hospital amounts to 100,000. The shortage gap of disposable masks across Wuhan is currently around 32 million.”  ...

 

... According to the information shared by Dr. Huang, however, many doctors from ‘first-and second-grade hospitals’ in major cities along the southeast coast have reached a consensus. They believe that the definite number of infections is five to six times the number officially announced by China, including those who have not been confirmed. The number of deaths, they estimate, is two to three times the official announcement.

“A Wuhan doctor told me that they have no choice. There are no more beds in hospitals. They can only refuse to accept patients. With or without confirmation, they can only send patients home. The doctor’s order is self-quarantine. This is an advanced warning of the scarcity of Wuhan medical resources,” Dr. Huang said. The number of deaths is still being counted. According to Dr. Huang, many of the unreported deaths were located in other small cities of Hubei, such as

     Map of Wuhan with surrounding cities.

To meet patient demands, at least four hospitals, the non-respiratory-related offices or departments in many hospitals have become quarantine wards. Yet the Hubei provincial government is still trying to cover up most information from the public.

On Weibo, posts from Wuhan people seeking help can be seen everywhere, most of which stem from their family members being sick but refusing to take medical treatments because they’ve been placated by the Chinese government’s lackadaisical attitude. We can only conclude from these desperate pleas that the medical system in Hubei is paralyzed.  ...

 

          < more in the link >

 

[GunnysGhost + 157]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The overall trend is starting to become apparent. 

Doubling every 2 days.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

24 minutes ago, GunnysGhost said:

Doubling every 2 days.

Bingo.

[notsonice + 1,255]

The report out in the last few hours showsthe Coronavirus has the upper hand. Will it be contained to China? To date the answer looks like a yes. China is in lockdown mode. Would you step outside and go to the markets or to work if you lived in China? if you are poor most likely, Good luck to those in China. This said the Coronavirus will definitely affect Chinas 1st and 2nd quarters GDP substantially and my drag it into a recession. The virus as everyone can see is creaming oil and nat gas and may lay victims in the US. Oil shale players can not be happy today. Will it affect US GDP? it will not help. Stock markets are in a reactionary mode and any bit of news can finally pop the giant bubbles that exists in the US markets. Good Luck

 

[luca mattei + 15]

12 minutes ago, notsonice said:

The report out in the last few hours showsthe Coronavirus has the upper hand. Will it be contained to China? To date the answer looks like a yes. China is in lockdown mode. Would you step outside and go to the markets or to work if you lived in China? if you are poor most likely, Good luck to those in China. This said the Coronavirus will definitely affect Chinas 1st and 2nd quarters GDP substantially and my drag it into a recession. The virus as everyone can see is creaming oil and nat gas and may lay victims in the US. Oil shale players can not be happy today. Will it affect US GDP? it will not help. Stock markets are in a reactionary mode and any bit of news can finally pop the giant bubbles that exists in the US markets. Good Luck

 

Nat Gas and Oil are living a downward from years, and the Coronavirus there wasn't.

Oil never waked up after the 2014 crisis.

Nat Gas till the end of February is relegated to the south,

The Virus's impact on these two commodities is marginal in the long time view.

On a weekly or daily basis, maybe, but it's helping the price to do faster something that was already in the sights

[notsonice + 1,255]

18 minutes ago, luca mattei said:

Nat Gas and Oil are living a downward from years, and the Coronavirus there wasn't.

Oil never waked up after the 2014 crisis.

Nat Gas till the end of February is relegated to the south,

The Virus's impact on these two commodities is marginal in the long time view.

On a weekly or daily basis, maybe, but it's helping the price to do faster something that was already in the sights

On a weekly or daily basis? good luck if your long oil or gas. Try to reflate the price, OPEC and Russia has taken notice already and you can bet a production cut will not move the price upward. Oil and Gas Juniors in the shale will have a hard time telling their financiers that they need more time will the Virus runs its course. The Virus is wreaking havoc in the oil and gas markets. And a vaccine?

[luca mattei + 15]

4 minutes ago, notsonice said:

On a weekly or daily basis? good luck if your long oil or gas. Try to reflate the price, OPEC and Russia has taken notice already and you can bet a production cut will not move the price upward. Oil and Gas Juniors in the shale will have a hard time telling their financiers that they need more time will the Virus runs its course. The Virus is wreaking havoc in the oil and gas markets. And a vaccine?

No, sorry Notsonice, I badly explained

I don't talk about "longs" on Gas or Oil...

I said that Oil & Gas are downward with or without the coronavirus...

[Otis11 + 551]

9 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Not really crazy, just a not quite ready for primetime biocontainment facility working with dangerous viruses exactly like the one involved in this outbreak. Without reference to conspiracies, this is most likely an accidental release by a carrier who contracted the virus in the Biosafety Lab unbeknownst to themselves and went shopping or for lunch at the Wuhan Wet Market.  

The facility got low safety marks in the viral research community and for its proximity to the big city of Wuhan. 

Seems like par for the course wild Chinese action disregarding risk in pursuit of CCP or commercial or scientific goals. 

If I were the Chinese government, I would press on anyone to keep the story under wraps. 

Consider the question of origin answered. 

The thing I'm referencing as Crazy is that they compelled Google to cooperate and change both Google Maps and Google Earth.

Also, how the US Government is involved in the professors funding...

The actual loss of containment isn't terribly surprising given the warnings they've had about the facility.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 hours ago, Otis11 said:

The thing I'm referencing as Crazy is that they compelled Google to cooperate and change both Google Maps and Google Earth.

Also, how the US Government is involved in the professors funding...

The actual loss of containment isn't terribly surprising given the warnings they've had about the facility.

I think Google is easy. Remember, they long since abandoned "don't be evil"…

The funding was a pittance, but probably enough to get a sneak preview of the papers before they got published. 

So a level 4 bio containment facility is really only a level One facility? With enough corrupt inspectors, sure. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

5 hours ago, Otis11 said:

The thing I'm referencing as Crazy is that they compelled Google to cooperate and change both Google Maps and Google Earth.

Also, how the US Government is involved in the professors funding...

The actual loss of containment isn't terribly surprising given the warnings they've had about the facility.

The US military/government funds huge amounts wherever the experts are. They are also price conscious and in less security related issues that are of global interest they will fund a cheaper offshore research team. Viruses of pandemic potential are exactly that kind of research target. Dr. Jhingli  (I am not checking the spelling so forgive me if it is off) is the leading researcher in this area and as far as location, I am sure this outbreak demonstrated why the US government decision for a NIMBY research facility is appropriate. At least it wasn't here. 

Google's succumbing to pressure is likely due to big threats and major inducements. The government would face a huge backlash if the truth comes out that their irresponsible half way safety measures at the Biosecurity Lab at Wuhan led to the pandemic. The potential death of 2-3% of their people is a small cost to the party to retain power, so imagine what they would would do to Google. 

They are covering up the spread, the number of deaths and suspected cases as well as the degree of chaos. While the older generation is drinking the government kool-aid ,the younger people are not, and the government is going to suffer in the future as the younger generations are going to actively sabotage it, targeting the upper levels of the party and the politburo, making their projects blow up in their faces in the most embarrassing public way. They are not going to forgive the illness and deaths of their parents and grandparents. I am sure the info on the Wuhan Biosecurity Lab is already a well established fact in Wuhan and quickly being established in the rest of the country as the root cause, along with CCP's and government's reckless behavior and putting face saving the party over the health of their people. Only issue is that the younger generation is only 1/3 of the country. 1/4 if you take out the country bumpkins who are not screwed into the Chinese dark web and its VPN out-connections to the open global web. 

When the China financial crisis (already ongoing) puts the economy to a hard stop as investment financing becomes impossible, that is >40% of their economy, the younger generation is not going to accept any excuses from the CCP. They will strike randomly at the party.. They will not think like their boomer parents that the enormous economic boom was the CCP's doing, they were born into it and don't know a world without rapid growth. The party can't hide from that. And the Wuhan virus outbreak is going to fill the younger adults with a deep vengeance to the party. It will not look good. The only way the party survives this is by becoming a S. Korea. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I think Google is easy. Remember, they long since abandoned "don't be evil"…

The funding was a pittance, but probably enough to get a sneak preview of the papers before they got published. 

So a level 4 bio containment facility is really only a level One facility? With enough corrupt inspectors, sure. 

I did analytical support for our toxicology and microbiology departments. 

I don't know all the details but I know we had a fancy at least level 1 microbial fume hood and autoclave disinfection procedures, UV lamps, incubators sterilized with powerful gases, etc.

What really bugged me is we cultured unknown samples all the time.  Who says some human didn't cough on that bottle of water and now we are culturing chlamydia, SARS, or something stupid in a low level facility.  I am probably biased because I thought the manager of that section was a moron. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Enthalpic

[notsonice + 1,255]

These are numbers from the The Beijinger

Total reported coronavirus cases in China (as of 1.17am Fri Jan 31)

• 8,163 confirmed
• 12,167 suspected
• 136 recovered
• 171 deaths

Please note the Dead are beating the Live (recovered) 171 to 136

Good luck to all in China and hope the spread worldwide is stopped fast and hard

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

5 minutes ago, notsonice said:

These are numbers from the The Beijinger

Total reported coronavirus cases in China (as of 1.17am Fri Jan 31)

• 8,163 confirmed
• 12,167 suspected
• 136 recovered
• 171 deaths

Please note the Dead are beating the Live (recovered) 171 to 136

Good luck to all in China and hope the spread worldwide is stopped fast and hard

 

The more who die, the Happier the billionaire boys club is

[notsonice + 1,255]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

The more who die, the Happier the billionaire boys club is

Huh? I was just pointing out how lethal the virus is. Instead you try to divert to some crackpot article

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Huh? I was just pointing out how lethal the virus is. Instead you try to divert to some crackpot article

Welcome to Oil Price. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Huh? I was just pointing out how lethal the virus is. Instead you try to divert to some crackpot article

Would you prefer the Wall Street Journal? I could add a link from there saying essentially the same thing. I'm well aware of the lethality of the virus. I just received a message about someone I met last summer who has died of the virus in Wuhan. I'm not convinced he's counted in that 171 either. Figure ten times published numbers. 

WSJ link

Edited January 31, 2020 by Ward Smith
Added link

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 1/25/2020 at 2:12 AM, Anthony Okrongly said:

Utter Claptrap Clickbait BS. Have you heard of The Flu?  Every year 300,000 to 600,000 DIE, dead, tits-up from the flu. About 60,000 - 80,000 people died in the U.S. last year from the Flu. A billion people at least get the flu each year. Yet people keep flying. 

It's hilarious to me how much people freak out when one of these novel viruses comes out. The Ebola scare was the best. SARS was fun as well. The U.S. media acts like the world is coming to an end because a few hundred or thousand people catch a novel virus and a few (dozen?) die.  People buy duct tape and plastic.... Yet Every Single year 60,000-80,000 Americans die all around you from the Flu and nobody gives it a second thought.   Your neighbors go in the front door of the hospital upright, come out of the basement in a black body bag at the rate of 450 people every day (450 because the flu is a Winter Sport... it happens over about 6 months).

The word NOVEL is the key.  It's new, so freak out!  Oil prices will collapse, world travel will stop, people will stop going to work, sure.... Why? Because it's not the old way 600,000 people per year die from a virus... It's a NOVEL Way that a few hundred or even a few thousand people will die. HIDE YOUR CHILDREN!!!

P.S. I look at the Flu Vaccine every year (and I get one). They are anywhere from 10-20% effective. If your car was 10-20% effective you would sue the car maker and there would be federal hearings. But, somehow the flu vaccine industry can make garbage and get free advertising scaring everyone into getting a shot, that doesn't work.  I get one because my doctor gives it to me for free, but they are basically a placebo. 

Good Luck... hope you survive this CoronaVirus Scourge!  If a Coronavirus became a worldwide "plague" and killed 100,000 people a year it would still only be 1/6th as bad as the flu.  If it went crazy and killed 2 million people a year by year 3 it wouldn't even make the news anymore. People would just get used to it. "They" all die of something and "I" will never die. Human nature. Governments are happy to let people be afraid of nothing (like ebola) in order to scare up a hundred billion in spending, but something that's actually endemic like Flu is considered "under control" because everyone get's a placebo shot that makes them feel like it can't affect them. If coronavirus gets truly bad the "scare tactics" will be replaced with "nothing to worry about" tactics and a fairly useless shot to make you feel immune. 

If 1 billion ppl get the snake flu, then 30 MILLION ppl die! There would be virtually no-one on the planet that didn't lose a friend or a loved one?

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

37 minutes ago, Wombat said:

If 1 billion ppl get the snake flu, then 30 MILLION ppl die! There would be virtually no-one on the planet that didn't lose a friend or a loved one?

I'm thinking bat, not snake. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Ward Smith