OPEC and Russia could discuss emergency cuts

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

This is the first I have heard about it being infectious after recovery. My wife is a nurse practitioner and says that common flu is not normally spread by patients post recovery.

Yep who knows at this point, I'm a very sceptical person and because of the 'boy that cried wolf' effect caused by previous virus scares I totally dismissed this one as a joke/fake MSM story but if that guy is genuine it's interesting. Having said all that it's so early on no one can be sure and we don't really knmow what's happening inside China. I have a friend that is in contact with someone there, they say that they live 800 miles from Wuhan and are locked down for 23.5 hours per day and only allowed out for 30 minutes per day for shopping...a pretty stupid thing to do in my opinion, surely that increases the chance of contagion by forcing everyone out to mix in such a short period of time.

That guy's youtube channel is getting a lot of traffic now, it doesn't mean he's right though. I believe they expect the peak will be in another month, maybe April.

At least it's a welcome break from the global warming lunatics for a while 😂😂

[El Nikko + 2,145]

50 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Not quite.  Look at the EDIT in my original post (Youtube).  The mortality rate might be .2% or even .02%, comparable to the flu.  The issue is how many people got infected by the corona virus but didn't get sick and showed no symptoms.  These people won't show up in the initial mortality ratios, skewing the current mortality rate to be too high.  

Still, given the scale of the Chinese government's response, a lot more people died from this corona virus then the government is willing to admit.

There are reports from reputable scientific sources like Nature that corona virus is 99% identical to another virus found in pangolins.

I think there's probably 300k infected and around 6k dead from what I've been reading but something like this, in the current climate...it's just impossible to tell

[El Nikko + 2,145]

This is wierd..putting people into boxes?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I posted a comment over on the China Gets Caught subject a couple of hours ago.  I think it's relevant here:

It is very interesting what industrious human beings can and do accomplish, especially when conditioned to consider the group more important than the individual. Combine that with indoctrination, yes it's a strong word; but it fits, that leads the group to believe that the entire world outside your borders has gravely wronged your great country throughout history and is in fact responsible for most of the woes that have befallen your Great nation (read Party, and now President for Life), or will do so into the future.  It seems that this all too often evolves into a mass group of individuals carrying out the bidding/ideology of the few at the top of what is called "leadership", or government, or CEO/C-suite, etc.

Did anyone else notice that the protesters in Hong Kong, and any supporters they may have had, have been made impotent by all of this?  Does anyone in the Middle Kingdom doubt the State's power and control at this stage?  Do you think it is lost on the citizens that the government claims all rights to being the saviour, and that argument about this point could cost you your life?  The figures vary, but somewhere around 100 million citizens have been effectively imprisoned in and around a number of Chinese cities, and what goes on inside the prison is virtually unverifiable.  I'd wager that no other country on earth could carry out such a "quarantine" at such a scale as the Chinese.  

It is my opinion that this whole affair, when it is boiled down to nuts and bolts, is a warning from the ruler(s) to the ruled.  And, to a certain extent, to the world at large.  You can call this conspiratorial madness, but you have not seen the forces of the government of China unleashed upon its own people the way I have, and you have not seen how the world at large was impotent at doing a damn thing about it.  This is not China of 1890 anymore.  This is evolution in a dangerous direction.

(rant over!)

 

Dan, you may think this is Taiwanese unfounded propaganda but I would like you to tell us what your take is on all new coronavirus information.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Dan, you may think this is Taiwanese unfounded propaganda but I would like you to tell us what your take is on all new coronavirus information.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

Thanks for asking.  The article points out many valid arguments and realities, including the reality of WHO(?).  Who does WHO get their information from?  Do they have boots on the ground to the extent of confirming each death and the accurate diagnosis of the deceased?  I don't think so.  How many WHO's are currently in China, and more specifically in and around Wuhan?  I did a search to find out and the best article I could find was this one from 6 days ago:

American experts to join WHO delegation in China to study coronavirus

Although telling that the U.S. and Britain are sending delegations to join a planned WHO delegation, against the wishes and with protest from both China and the WHO, that is not the most important detail.  That important detail, which it turns out is missing, is that nowhere in any article I could find or even the February 8th (latest) WHO Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Situation Report - 19, is it mentioned how many people WHO already had or have on the ground in or around Wuhan, leading me to believe the number is small to zero.  If someone has other information, please share it.

The end of the article you linked showed Taiwan's true intentions of publishing such information when they stated that China has to be stopped, even by drastic (militaristic, financial?) means if necessary.  Okay, no surprises there.

Finally, I'll share the gist of a conversation I had with my wife today.  Ultimately, where are any of us getting our information/statistics from?  The answer can include a few foreigners who are there and some number of Chinese citizens that have found their way around the Great Firewall of China to get their individual experiences out.  Most of this information would seemingly still only lead to serious underreporting, since most if not all of these individuals are also restricted in movement and communications, and they certainly would not be able to count the bodies and confirm the diagnoses in every corner of the city and its surroundings.  That leaves us with the WHO, who reportedly is getting their information from Beijing, NOT Wuhan.  At every chance the WHO touts that they are in direct contact with President Xi, who is not in Wuhan; he is in Beijing (normally).  What medical authority in Wuhan would report to ANYONE except Beijing after what happened to their unfortunate colleague, Dr. Li?

People in Wuhan don't know the full extent of what's the reality or the true tallies/totals.  There have been a few videos like the following, which does nothing to instill confidence in the information coming out:

Funeral Van outside of Wuhan Hospital piling up with body bags | NTDTV

So, my take on the article out of Taiwan is that it is probably stating some good data estimations, and certainly many realities as they exist within China.  As I said in my previous comment, that city is on lockdown, and Beijing holds the keys to the media, social media, the medical authorities, the police, the military, and most certainly the citizens.  If the people in Wuhan don't know what's going on, how can any one of us truly state that we know what's going on?  I'd argue that one should take care to lead our comments with "what I've read" or "what I've seen reported" rather than stating such information as fact.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/2/2020 at 7:22 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Does anyone else feel that this whole corona virus thing is being blown out of proportion?

Nope. There are 8000 cases outside Wuhan area and that number is growing. Shanghai might be in lockdown as well soon. That would really smash the global economy. So far, share markets are in "denial" phase.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

15 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Nope. There are 8000 cases outside Wuhan area and that number is growing. Shanghai might be in lockdown as well soon. That would really smash the global economy. So far, share markets are in "denial" phase.

When I wrote that comment the number of cases reported and the number of fatalities were much lower than they are now. It definitely does not seem to be overblown at this point.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/3/2020 at 8:02 PM, Hotone said:

According to this article, which was published a few days ago, none of the Germans who have been infected by the Coronavirus suffered any serious illness.  The effect on one of the victims was a sore throat, muscle pains and fever, but he recovered after 2 - 3 days.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/study-reports-first-case-of-coronavirus-spread-by-asymptomatic-person/

I think u need to read between the lines. When Zhong Lu (who sounds like a member of the Chinese Communist Party), says not to worry coz death rate only 0.2%, and Merkel bangs on about being kind to China over travel restrictions, you gotta join the dots...

[Hotone + 412]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

I think u need to read between the lines. When Zhong Lu (who sounds like a member of the Chinese Communist Party), says not to worry coz death rate only 0.2%, and Merkel bangs on about being kind to China over travel restrictions, you gotta join the dots...

It's not only those Germans who were mildly affected after infection, here is another video of an American who didn't even have any illness or symptoms.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/02/10/coronavirus-outbreak-us-patient-diamond-princess-ship-quarantine-ripley-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

So it seems that this virus only causes serious illness and death among East Asians.  The Russians believe that America created this Coronavirus to sabotage China. 

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/russian-scientists-believe-america-created-the-wuhan-coronavirus-to-sabotage-china

While Americans may be involved, I don't think that Trump is behind this.  More likely, fringe right wingers such as Bannon (who has been openly boasting about being able to take down the CCP) or vulture capitalists such as Kyle Bass may engineer an attack  like this.

 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

What's probably more likely is that this is a case of "Andromeda Strain", where the mutated virus is much less severe than the original and it is spreading rapidly because infected hosts show few symptoms.  If this is the case, we've gotten lucky since we will be partially immunized to any future strain.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Russia breakeven oil price last year was only  47,7 $  according to  BC.ru Saudi Arabia about 80 $  So I decided to bold this numbers.

Thats why Russia prefers higher oil production over higher oil price and Saudis are much more desperate nowadays.

An official responsible for this is called Mishustin-Russia new prime minister which previously took care for tax reform.

PS

According to newest EIA STEO  brent price will be 61 $ this year and 67 $ next year.

They predict  a demand growth of 350.000 barrels for China- only 150.000 less than in January.

So according to EIA I would not call this a catastrophe or dramatic situation for oil producers especially as long as Libya oil productions is shut down.

But lets wait for IEA OMR and Opec oil report .

Edited February 11, 2020 by Tomasz

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

What's probably more likely is that this is a case of "Andromeda Strain", where the mutated virus is much less severe than the original and it is spreading rapidly because infected hosts show few symptoms.  If this is the case, we've gotten lucky since we will be partially immunized to any future strain.

Get out the Sterno and Aspirin for the next rogue virus, eh?

[Bob D + 562]

I don't think it's overblown Douglas.

Hopeful that the Total Recovered continues to outpace the Total Deaths.

But the 43,141 Total Confirmed cases must eventually fall into either Death or Recovered category so we will see!

 

 

This ` 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 2/8/2020 at 10:26 PM, Dan Warnick said:

I posted a comment over on the China Gets Caught subject a couple of hours ago.  I think it's relevant here:

It is very interesting what industrious human beings can and do accomplish, especially when conditioned to consider the group more important than the individual. Combine that with indoctrination, yes it's a strong word; but it fits, that leads the group to believe that the entire world outside your borders has gravely wronged your great country throughout history and is in fact responsible for most of the woes that have befallen your Great nation (read Party, and now President for Life), or will do so into the future.  It seems that this all too often evolves into a mass group of individuals carrying out the bidding/ideology of the few at the top of what is called "leadership", or government, or CEO/C-suite, etc.

Did anyone else notice that the protesters in Hong Kong, and any supporters they may have had, have been made impotent by all of this?  Does anyone in the Middle Kingdom doubt the State's power and control at this stage?  Do you think it is lost on the citizens that the government claims all rights to being the saviour, and that argument about this point could cost you your life?  The figures vary, but somewhere around 100 million citizens have been effectively imprisoned in and around a number of Chinese cities, and what goes on inside the prison is virtually unverifiable.  I'd wager that no other country on earth could carry out such a "quarantine" at such a scale as the Chinese.  

It is my opinion that this whole affair, when it is boiled down to nuts and bolts, is a warning from the ruler(s) to the ruled.  And, to a certain extent, to the world at large.  You can call this conspiratorial madness, but you have not seen the forces of the government of China unleashed upon its own people the way I have, and you have not seen how the world at large was impotent at doing a damn thing about it.  This is not China of 1890 anymore.  This is evolution in a dangerous direction.

(rant over!)

 

The official quarantined geographies are home to 400 million people, and they can't travel out and travel into their provinces and cities is minimal. They only figured out last week that letting food trucks through the quarantine block is necessary, and isn't just undue infection risk.

It appeared for a while that Wuhan was going to be forced into starvation. Till they figured out that perhaps letting food in is a better idea. Still restricting it mostly to the harbor.

I am certain that the CCP was considering to be done with the problem by cutting off the centers of infection altogether and letting the people die of starvation. But that is speculation on my part. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 2/10/2020 at 9:21 AM, Hotone said:

It's not only those Germans who were mildly affected after infection, here is another video of an American who didn't even have any illness or symptoms.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/02/10/coronavirus-outbreak-us-patient-diamond-princess-ship-quarantine-ripley-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

So it seems that this virus only causes serious illness and death among East Asians.  The Russians believe that America created this Coronavirus to sabotage China. 

https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/russian-scientists-believe-america-created-the-wuhan-coronavirus-to-sabotage-china

While Americans may be involved, I don't think that Trump is behind this.  More likely, fringe right wingers such as Bannon (who has been openly boasting about being able to take down the CCP) or vulture capitalists such as Kyle Bass may engineer an attack  like this.

 

I think it is a typical case of Chinese selfcenteredness or navel gazing,  and typical CCP focus on attack and lack of concern with safety and survival of the attacking force. Lets assume for the sake of this argument, that they develop a bio-warfare coronavirus and they test it on conveniently available Chinese dissident prisoners who are predominantly male. Needless to say, it would be the one that works best against them that would be chosen for further development. 

But, as posted on the Coronavirus thread, the Han Chinese male has ACE2 receptors (what nCoV attaches to) in 2.5% of their cells, while Chinese women and those of  European descent have 0.5% or a bit less. Obviously, The disease would be far more virulent for Han Chinese men and thus their infectious capacity to spouses who would be exposed to a 5 fold larger initial viral infection than if they came in contact with an infected female. Thus the potential CFR ratio is far lower for those of  European descent and Chinese women. If they don't get a really large initial infection, then they will likely not get any symptoms or only light ones and to the extent they get ill, they have a good chance of recovering quickly. 

I had commented before, on the discussion of China's military, naval ambitions, that typical Chinese military designs focus on delivering an initial blow and discount safety concerns. That is old info and may not be current, but I suspect it is an ingrained mode of thought and is not easily reformed. I said that Chinese ammo is as much a danger to the user as it is to the target. I even went to the extent of calling their Navy's destroyers tailing the US and other foreign navy groups in the S China sea as matchsticks. I think this is a similar case of all offensive and no defense. 

Their careless Biosafety lab and its position in a city of 11 million, the apparent lax procedures and likely accidental release would all explain this outbreak to the little extent we know details of it.

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, Bob D said:

I don't think it's overblown Douglas.

Hopeful that the Total Recovered continues to outpace the Total Deaths.

But the 43,141 Total Confirmed cases must eventually fall into either Death or Recovered category so we will see!

 

 

This ` 

Still, that is 25% mortality so far. The Tencent leak showed 25k dead and 200 recovered. 99% mortality. But since that was old data, I don't believe that those numbers held. 

Perhaps Wuhan will finally get some antivirals in quantity and see as good an outcome as the cities where the initial seeding of the disease didn't follow the outbreak path in its development as treatment was available since hospitals were not overwhelmed. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

I think we are going to have some substantial cuts from OPEC. I would be surprised if Saudi didn't cut production for the spot market to 0 and already had 2 MMBbl/d contracts to China petrochem majors that don't have staff to restart their plants. I don't believe they will release that excess oil to the market. 

Russia can't really cut production at this season because of temperatures in Siberian fields. So we will have to see who else in OPEC cuts. 

SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3049833/coronavirus-chinas-small-firms-risk-while-outbreak-poses

China is losing credibility as a reliable source for supply chains. What was an economic cost issue and trade war drive to exit China is going to become a gigantic exodus. It is a terminal condition. If the Quarantine spreads to Shanghai, then China as an industrial power has just peaked last year, and it is downhill from here.  

Arthur Kroeber, head of research at consultancy Gavekal, said Beijing will pay for more than just economic loss after authorities in Wuhan were exposed of withholding information about the outbreak “until it was far too late to contain it”.

“Much of the outside world will be reinforced in its conviction that China is an untrustworthy actor, and that this untrustworthiness is baked into its opaque, authoritarian and over-controlled political system,” Krober wrote in a note. “This could impose several long-run costs”.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 2/8/2020 at 8:39 AM, Capt. Lauren Dowsett said:

WE DO NOT IMPORT crude from any country we are independent NOW!!  

Incorrect.

I'm not going to address or rebut the rest of your comment, but will say that it makes my head hurt.

[Hotone + 412]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I think it is a typical case of Chinese selfcenteredness or navel gazing,  and typical CCP focus on attack and lack of concern with safety and survival of the attacking force..

The opinion of American involvement comes from Russian scientists and bioweapon experts.  There are a few source articles in Russian which have been cited in the above link. I don't think the Trump administration is involved because this would be an act of war. In my opinion, Trump is not a war monger.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Hotone

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Hotone said:

The opinion of American involvement comes from Russian scientists and bioweapon experts.  There are a few source articles in Russian which have been cited in the above link. I don't think the Trump administration is involved because this would be an act of war. In my opinion, Trump is not a war monger.

I am proposing a hypothetical mechanism in line with what we do know of CCP and PLA attitudes and methods, whereby they created and accidentally released a virus bioweapon that appears to be optimized to selectively kill their own people. Tragic, and a CCP blunder of unforgivable proportions at all phases and in every way possible, being negligent and unconcerned with their people, 

The Russian claptrap is just that and nobody would believe any of it.  

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

16 hours ago, Hotone said:

I don't think the Trump administration is involved because this would be an act of war. In my opinion, Trump is not a war monger.

I would agree with you that Trump is not a war monger.   BUT, if he becomes convinced that one needs to happen AND he gets Congress to declare the war, so they could share the inevitable repercussions, I pity the fools that he goes after.  I fully believe he would accept nothing less than a General Stormin Norman Schwarzkopf War!  Get in, smash the enemy, declare unconditional victory, and go home, in less than a year total if at all possible.

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 2/11/2020 at 3:43 PM, Tomasz said:

Russia breakeven oil price last year was only  47,7 $  according to  BC.ru Saudi Arabia about 80 $  So I decided to bold this numbers.

Thats why Russia prefers higher oil production over higher oil price and Saudis are much more desperate nowadays.

An official responsible for this is called Mishustin-Russia new prime minister which previously took care for tax reform.

PS

According to newest EIA STEO  brent price will be 61 $ this year and 67 $ next year.

They predict  a demand growth of 350.000 barrels for China- only 150.000 less than in January.

So according to EIA I would not call this a catastrophe or dramatic situation for oil producers especially as long as Libya oil productions is shut down.

But lets wait for IEA OMR and Opec oil report .

TomasZ only post seeming to be on topic, getting back to heading, why do the US always look to OPEC to cut or look to derail a foreign country to make space for the US oil play, why not cut back in USA, we all know why, these well cannot be stopped in LTO sector and storage plus transport just adds to the dilema. So the taps are open if full choke, let’s see how long it endures , well engineering tells you that any well at full choke will half the life span or drastic affect the longevity of the well. This doesn’t seem to matter in the US LTO sector, the get out is punch more holes but guess what, that model has been found out and will not sustain, let’s get prepared for one swift move for OPEC and non OPEC producers and the US could find themselves knee deep in LTO Dookie very quickly. 
“well by god, there going to be an ass whooping here a 45 gallon worth of asswup” In The famous words of RD Mercer out of Tulsie Oaklahoma... Thats Mercer M.E.R.C.E.R mam and I need a cheque or........

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

When you are talking oil cuts for the US versus say Russia and OPEC, you need to keep in mind that national oil companies OR oil companies controlled by the government can be forced/ordered to cut production while that is not possible, in fact would be illegal, in the US or any other ‘free market economy’ - the goverment can not fix prices or demand that an industry varies its production.

Yes, I think that the dough heads in the US shale game should ‘do their part’, but it is a totally different mechanism as opposed to national oil companies.

[dboxtv.info + 1]

On 2/3/2020 at 10:06 PM, ronwagn said:

Lets pray so, but read this https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-cant-let-my-mom-die-home-desperate-patients-swarm-wuhan-hospital-hong-kong-closes

Yes. How oil drop to 48 isn't due to virus and war threat spike to 66 when Iran blew beoing plane . Oops 

[J.mo + 165]

13 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

When you are talking oil cuts for the US versus say Russia and OPEC, you need to keep in mind that national oil companies OR oil companies controlled by the government can be forced/ordered to cut production while that is not possible, in fact would be illegal, in the US or any other ‘free market economy’ - the goverment can not fix prices or demand that an industry varies its production.

Yes, I think that the dough heads in the US shale game should ‘do their part’, but it is a totally different mechanism as opposed to national oil companies.

You're delusional man. Who is going to do their part? The guys barely making it, or trying to get bigger? Or the fat cats, who eventually feed the competition both domestically and abroad.