Crude Oil Historical Chart from 1946 to Now

[ronwagn + 6,290]

<a href='https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart'>Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart</a>            Inflation adjusted

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

Does anyone think that this chart is correct. $20 was worth a lot more than $51 dollars is today IMHO. Inflation charts often seem unreliable to me. What do you think?

[0R0 + 6,251]

It is a realistic picture

It correlates perfectly with economic activity and employment. I can only hope that the costs of transport energy fall to the pre 1970 levels in real terms. The economic benefit of it would blow your mind. My biggest hope is that the renewables adoption now happening will result in a drop of transport energy costs to the equivalent of $20 crude. We can already do that with NG cars/trucks and when enough cheap renewables are installed we can do it with EVs. 

Do you remember what it was like to have those low energy prices at 1970 and 1997-8? What it did for employment and economic growth?

[0R0 + 6,251]

I should add that I prefer using CPI less shelter, as housing is also a long lived asset so while it is someone's cost it is also someone's capital gain or rental income, and it is held broadly by "consumers".

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

My biggest hope is that the renewables adoption now happening will result in a drop of transport energy costs to the equivalent of $20 crude.

As you well know, we are in a time of almost nonexistent core inflation. The cost of borrowing money for new exiting technology is close to zero and also energy prices track inflation, more or less. So yes, energy costs--all the way around--are very low.

This can't go on indefinitely. Why? Well, I'll take hydrocarbons, since I know more about them. At crashing oil and gas prices, with bankruptcy already looming for close to 500 companies, the coronavirus and its implications and real effects are going to push many more companies to the wayside. The rig count in the US is only about 750, and probably another 250 rigs will be laid down. The NG glut has bottlenecked not only shale but also Guyana . . . if you consider the gas handling plants on the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity. 

So, this could be the ideal environment for the rise of renewables--as many on this board seem to think. The only thing is, the world is nowhere near prepared for a takeover by renewables. We are hereby setting the stage for a shortage of oil. Not gas, but oil. The renewables crowd like to talk about "stranded assets." Well, oil is, in many places, a stranded asset already . . . but stranded by NG. 

What's the end result of all this pushing and pulling for energy hegemony? Eventually a rising price of oil against a persistently low price for NG. And, of course, if LNG falls low enough, it won't be economical for many places that are gearing up for renewable energy to actually switch to it. And there will then be "stranded assets" on both sides of the aisle. 

All of this, possibly against the backdrop of contagion. If it turns out that this was a genetically engineered virus that had been effectively weaponized to use against a country that had imposed economic sanctions against which the Chinese couldn't win, then there will be more nationalization and possibly even a war. In that case, all bets are off.

As Mark Twain always said, history never repeats itself but it often rhymes. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

As you well know, we are in a time of almost nonexistent core inflation. The cost of borrowing money for new exiting technology is close to zero and also energy prices track inflation, more or less. So yes, energy costs--all the way around--are very low.

This can't go on indefinitely. Why? Well, I'll take hydrocarbons, since I know more about them. At crashing oil and gas prices, with bankruptcy already looming for close to 500 companies, the coronavirus and its implications and real effects are going to push many more companies to the wayside. The rig count in the US is only about 750, and probably another 250 rigs will be laid down. The NG glut has bottlenecked not only shale but also Guyana . . . if you consider the gas handling plants on the Liza Destiny and Liza Unity. 

So, this could be the ideal environment for the rise of renewables--as many on this board seem to think. The only thing is, the world is nowhere near prepared for a takeover by renewables. We are hereby setting the stage for a shortage of oil. Not gas, but oil. The renewables crowd like to talk about "stranded assets." Well, oil is, in many places, a stranded asset already . . . but stranded by NG. 

What's the end result of all this pushing and pulling for energy hegemony? Eventually a rising price of oil against a persistently low price for NG. And, of course, if LNG falls low enough, it won't be economical for many places that are gearing up for renewable energy to actually switch to it. And there will then be "stranded assets" on both sides of the aisle. 

All of this, possibly against the backdrop of contagion. If it turns out that this was a genetically engineered virus that had been effectively weaponized to use against a country that had imposed economic sanctions against which the Chinese couldn't win, then there will be more nationalization and possibly even a war. In that case, all bets are off.

As Mark Twain always said, history never repeats itself but it often rhymes. 

Well, the beauty of it is that once you installed the renewables and have nat gas fill in and peaker plants then the grid will see renewables merchant producers go under as NG plants even undercut them if your scenario works out, then the renewables will be FREE after bankruptcy. 

As to the weaponized bat coronavirus with various bits of HIV in its DNA, it would be in line with the  published research work Prof Jhingli  (sp?) was doing at the Wuhan Biosecurity lab to see what recombinant crosses that are possible in natural conditions would do. Just like the recent publication where she showed the ACE2 attachment could happen in just two mutation steps that are likely in natural conditions. She was warning that it was essentially just a matter of time till it happened - just that someone in her lab got infected and passed it round his neighborhood.. That is what you get for constructing a ramshackle biocontainment lab and doing cutting edge recombinant research in viruses with  pandemic potential across the river from a metro area of 16 million people. Prof. Jinli Shi should have written that one up too. 

I am sure that Trump has been made aware that this was a case of a "blew up in their faces" bioweapon that was meant for the US. I don't know what the Trump administration would do about it. After all, the CCP and PLA were entirely explicit about their plan and gave public speeches about it. It wasn't used against us, so in Trump's accounting it "doesn't count". Just like the Iranian missile strikes that initially only seemed to do damage to empty buildings. Later it turned out that they caused brain injuries yet Trump hasn't done anything visible about it yet. He is running on a non-military adventurism platform. So we have to see what makes it to the retribution scorecard after the election. 

 

[Boat + 1,324]

Without looking at numbers, energy, produce and consumer goods seem cheap enough but it’s the big ticket items that suck away the funds of the common man. Housing is crazy high, cars and repairs/cost per mile and healthcare costs. If you live in a box, walk and don’t mind dying early you can live pretty cheap.