Europe’s Green Deal: Same Hysteria, Same Destruction

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“You do need different fuel tanks which are superior to the old heavy steel ones.”

Ron, just to ‘bust your chops’ a little, the tank on my bike is a 5 gallon molded thing out of some sort of plastic...works fine!😂

[Boat + 1,323]

17 hours ago, Wombat said:

My definition of conventional oil is "traditional" onshore + shallow-water offshore. Production peaked years ago. Now we rely heavily on fracking, tar sands and deep-water, all expensive.

Yea, it’s so expensive it dropped prices from $100 to today’s $55 which by the way is price supported by OPEC and Russia cutting production. Which btw took us from the worlds crashing economy to one of the longest stable economic periods the world has seen in modern history. 

[Boat + 1,323]

8 hours ago, ronwagn said:

This is a really crucial point. What we need is ENERGY to run machines. It can come from any fossil fuel or biologically produced fuel. There is no shortage and I cannot see any coming for a hundred years or beyond. Meanwhile let the other renewables do whatever they can economically. Just use the best available options. This requires the ability to think rationally and to examine all options rigorously and completely while maintaining an unbiased view. 

P.S. You do not need a different engine to use natural gas you just need different fuel injection and small modifications. You do need different fuel tanks which are superior to the old heavy steel ones. 

While I attract many negative comments for my green views no one gives credit for the practical side of green. I will go with numbers from recent posts. 160 billion/renewable vrs 500 billion/FF per year is not extreme, 300 billion a year would be a better number. But in no way would it be smart to put in windmills where there is poor wind or solar where there is little sun. People and industry still need to compete on price with their products so the rollout of renewables needs to be smart and measured. 
The history of solar and wind has pretty good so far in the US. Just in the last couple of years scale and tech has improved to the point additional investment is smart and can grow. But 5 years from now the environment of competitive renewables will be even better. This is a trend you can’t stop. But investment over time can grow to match or beat FF as tech improves. As mentioned this is still a several decade length process and trying to jump to fast would be inefficient. End rant.

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

While I attract many negative comments for my green views no one gives credit for the practical side of green. I will go with numbers from recent posts. 160 billion/renewable vrs 500 billion/FF per year is not extreme, 300 billion a year would be a better number. But in no way would it be smart to put in windmills where there is poor wind or solar where there is little sun. People and industry still need to compete on price with their products so the rollout of renewables needs to be smart and measured. 
The history of solar and wind has pretty good so far in the US. Just in the last couple of years scale and tech has improved to the point additional investment is smart and can grow. But 5 years from now the environment of competitive renewables will be even better. This is a trend you can’t stop. But investment over time can grow to match or beat FF as tech improves. As mentioned this is still a several decade length process and trying to jump to fast would be inefficient. End rant.

Want to see what happens when I give you the power figures for hydrogen production?  

                  

 

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by KeyboardWarrior

[NickW + 2,714]

15 hours ago, Wombat said:

Oil + Gas investment still approx. $500bn, coal investment collapsing.

Interesting particularly given that the capital investment in renewables is front end loaded. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

It's amazing how rapidly things are changing in Europe. The Tesla Model 3 is now cheaper to own than a Toyota Camry, and it's significantly more luxurious. Now we've gotten Jaguar and others entering the market to pick up the slack that Tesla can't fulfil.

January share as a pct of market share:
Norway - 64%
Sweden - 31%
Switzerland - 18.5%
Finland - 13.4%
Portugal - 11%
France - 8.2%
Netherlands - 7.6%
Denmark - 7%
Germany: 6.5%
UK - 5.9%
Belgium - 5.5%
Spain - 4.1%
Ireland - 3.4%
Italy - 2.1%

Europe is, of course, different to the rest of the world. It prefers and affords luxury vehicles, like the US, but is densely populated, like most of the world. As costs come down I'd expect EVs to move more into developing countries. As range extends you should see more in the US.

I see a lot of mechanics going out of business as car reliability improves significantly.

(source: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/02/flash-news-january-pev-market-shares-in.html?spref=tw)

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/9/2020 at 9:25 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

“You do need different fuel tanks which are superior to the old heavy steel ones.”

Ron, just to ‘bust your chops’ a little, the tank on my bike is a 5 gallon molded thing out of some sort of plastic...works fine!😂

I am thinking of spun fiberglass tanks that are suitable for long range 18 wheelers or smaller vehicles. There are many codes involved and they keep getting better. Some are conformable to various shapes needed. 

https://www.cngunited.com/cng-tanks-2/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/10/2020 at 1:12 PM, Geoff Guenther said:

It's amazing how rapidly things are changing in Europe. The Tesla Model 3 is now cheaper to own than a Toyota Camry, and it's significantly more luxurious. Now we've gotten Jaguar and others entering the market to pick up the slack that Tesla can't fulfil.

January share as a pct of market share:
Norway - 64%
Sweden - 31%
Switzerland - 18.5%
Finland - 13.4%
Portugal - 11%
France - 8.2%
Netherlands - 7.6%
Denmark - 7%
Germany: 6.5%
UK - 5.9%
Belgium - 5.5%
Spain - 4.1%
Ireland - 3.4%
Italy - 2.1%

Europe is, of course, different to the rest of the world. It prefers and affords luxury vehicles, like the US, but is densely populated, like most of the world. As costs come down I'd expect EVs to move more into developing countries. As range extends you should see more in the US.

I see a lot of mechanics going out of business as car reliability improves significantly.

(source: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/02/flash-news-january-pev-market-shares-in.html?spref=tw)

Aren't there a lot of subsidies involved in the price though? Will the governments impose taxes to have these cars pay for their fair share of the road costs? How much will it cost to dispose of and replace the batteries? What fuel will produce the electricity for them? What will be the cost of the additional electrical infrastructure needed? 

I am not against electrical vehicles for those that want them, but Americans mostly like to drive larger vehicles. I prefer using natural gas vehicles. They are twice as prevalent around the world as electric vehicles and can replace diesel trucks and ship engines.

If electric vehicles can be charged fast enough I can see them taking over the small car market if they are truly economical. They will have to prove that they are though. Not for the wealthy buyer, but for the average family. I would only buy one if I thought it would save me money, and as a second car to use locally. Areas that do not suffer from air pollution might not be as motivated as urban dwellers either. I am one of those. After all, they are only as clean as the fuel used to produce their electricity. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Aren't there a lot of subsidies involved in the price though? Will the governments impose taxes to have these cars pay for their fair share of the road costs? How much will it cost to dispose of and replace the batteries? What fuel will produce the electricity for them? What will be the cost of the additional electrical infrastructure needed? 

Today there are subsidies. Even without the subsidies, though, the costs are pretty comparable because of the low maintenance and fuel costs - few moving parts means fewer repairs and longer life. The subsidies will go away as governments replace carrots with hammers, enforcing reduction of ICE sales.

Batteries can be recycled, and need to be for the cobalt and lithium. The cost of recycling will be lower than the cost of building from scratch.  The designs today could well last for 1,000,000 miles, making them suitable for trucks.

The cost of the infrastructure is significant. It means replacing almost every plant in the next 20 years (needed anyway), almost doubling generation capacity and increasing the load the networks can bear.  So yes, there is large infrastructure cost.  There are a huge number of possibilities of where the energy will come from - I can't see either gas or nuclear going away in the mid-term.

We used to use propane for hauling vehicles in Western Canada, but that petered out when oil prices collapsed. Even so, electric trucks can be more efficient in mountainous regions as the energy you spend going up gets recovered coming back down. But I'd sooner replace city busses and diggers motors rather than long-haul trucks.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“...as the energy you spend going up gets recovered coming back down.”

Ahhhh....the old perpetual motion machine! 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

The subsidies will go away as governments replace carrots with hammers, enforcing reduction of ICE sales.

This part scares me.  Goverments enforcing the elimination of ICE vehicles in the name of the Climate Panic Scaremongering Wannabe Dictatorships.  The lust for power, control and money by governments dovetails very nicely with the Climate Communism.

Yes, I'm using hyperbole to make a point.  Feel free to fire back, the Chicken Little panic amuses me.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 2/8/2020 at 6:31 AM, Enthalpic said:

People love to hate on California but without their strong environmental stance most of the US would be far more polluted today.  For example lawn mowers would run on 2 stroke; they banned that so all the manufactures who wanted to sell to Californians changed to 4-stroke.  Everyone benefits from cleaner air due to a California law and the market pressure they can exert.

I wouldve thought they would have all been nice green electric lawn mowers??

Oh wait I forgot about all the power cuts after they sent the main utility bust (PG&E) from over regulation.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

On 2/9/2020 at 10:14 AM, Boat said:

Who cares about conventional oil. That is so 1990. Biofuels run the same machines, nat gas liquids run the same machines, tar sands and LTO run the same machines. Restaurant grease can run the same machines. Nat gas with a different motor can run the same machines. 
If you want to be intellectually fair you look at the pool of products that supply transportation energy. And yes this includes coal.

The quickest way to die is to use vegetable oil for cooking: it produces trans-fats like you wouldn't believe. When we use corn oil as biofuel, we're spewing that into the air--it may actually be worse than coal. And restaurant grease? Now you're really getting a two-for-one whammy. Just saying . . . 

There's a guy on another thread who keeps pumping these models out showing "peak oil supply." He's a bright fellow but man, has he overlooked an important factoid: conventional oil. And here I'm not really getting into offshore, about which I know nothing. I do know, however, that the number of conventional onshore wells is phenomenal. Those old wells from, say, 1980, were barely exploited: perhaps 5% yield. They drilled these things and moved on quickly, put in some gathering stations, and from then on it's just a guy driving around in a pickup collecting data for gauge reports and looking for problems. This is mostly done electronically these days.

My point? There's a massive amount of oil left behind in old conventional wells. When such a well becomes end-of-life, it pulls in salt, then water. Some of these old brine wells (western Canada, for example) are very rich in "Petrolithium," which would be an interesting by-product. Anyway, with new techniques, rather than plugging them at a cost of $30,000 per, I predict that a new industry of old oil well resuscitation will become a go-getter. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

The quickest way to die is to use vegetable oil for cooking: it produces trans-fats like you wouldn't believe. When we use corn oil as biofuel, we're spewing that into the air--it may actually be worse than coal. And restaurant grease? Now you're really getting a two-for-one whammy. Just saying . . . 

^ this.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

The quickest way to die is to use vegetable oil for cooking: it produces trans-fats like you wouldn't believe. When we use corn oil as biofuel, we're spewing that into the air--it may actually be worse than coal. And restaurant grease? Now you're really getting a two-for-one whammy. Just saying . . . 

Jeez I'm an ignorant fool, never heard of trans-fats before. 

Thanks Gerry for educating me!

just read this

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/why-trans-fats-are-bad

This states that vegetable oils that are chemically altered artificially to form a solid will cause dangerous trans-fats.

Surely conventional vegetable oils in their natural state such as olive oils are good for you (ie better than saturated fats)?? And why would an unaltered vegetable oil be bad as a biofuel?

Sorry as I say I'm a dullard and need educating.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Goverments enforcing the elimination of ICE vehicles in the name of the Climate Panic Scaremongering Wannabe Dictatorships.  The lust for power, control and money by governments dovetails very nicely with the Climate Communism.

This is more likely to happen in densely populated countries where the government has support for such measures - i.e. almost all of Europe. Smog and noise are bigger problems in more urbanised settings. I doubt you'd see that in the US, as NOx emissions in the countryside aren't as big an issue.

It does become an issue in an autocratic state where people can't vote a government out when they don't like a policy. Like in your other thread on coronavirus - India is more stable than China right now because if coronavirus spreads in India at least the people chose the government rather than having it imposed.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

This states that vegetable oils that are chemically altered artificially to form a solid will cause dangerous trans-fats.

I'd never really considered that vegetable oil bio-fuel could cause my lungs to fill up with margerine before. Safer to go back to smoking.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Olive oil is great for you, because it's a monounsaturated fat. You are what you eat applies here because all cell membranes are about 90% fat. If you eat a lot of saturated fats, they make up your cell membrane. Problem is, they don't fit together well and "leak" to the point where you develop arteriosclerosis. If you eat olives and use olive oil, you replace those fats with monounsaturated. And it's amazing what a difference the absence of a hydrogen makes.

You kind of made me ponder this, Mr. Plant, because hmmmm, was does spewing out cooked vegetable oil do to the environment? I have to be honest here and admit that I may have gotten over my skis. I would PRESUME that it's toxic, but you know what they say about presume. I'll bet there's something somewhere on what biofuels do. I'm going to believe it's bad---much worse than hydrocarbon emissions---until I learn different.

In my humble opinion, the burning of corn oil is the moral equivalent of not feeding a hungry child.

[specinho + 467]

On 2/4/2020 at 11:46 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You know that graph you published is complete and utter BS when we know from HISTORY/Geology/Archeology, actual personal eyewitnesses that around ~1000AD-->1300AD,

1. grapes were being grown in Scotland/Iceland,
2. Greenland was actually... Green and so was Iceland,
3. certain types of warm weather trees grew throughout Europe which cannot grow today,
4. Upper Canada had trees half meter in diameter where today only scrub brush or tundra grows,
5. the Rivers Ran Dry in N. Europe,
6. the Great Plains in the USA had moving sand dunes, Australia did as welI(more than it does today)
7. And yet today NONE of the above are true because the earth is too danged cold, yet the "graph"(wholly made up BS) shows 0.5C... to the lowpoint of the little ice age which was NOT man made which happened in both Hemispheres and yet, no one can figure out why(in reality with an actual MODEL)

There might be some truth in those................

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

This part scares me.  Goverments enforcing the elimination of ICE vehicles in the name of the Climate Panic Scaremongering Wannabe Dictatorships.  The lust for power, control and money by governments dovetails very nicely with the Climate Communism.

Yes, I'm using hyperbole to make a point.  Feel free to fire back, the Chicken Little panic amuses me.

And, in America at least, taxes for reasons such as these have a way of sticking, forever!  Drain the swamp and get off my lawn!

[NickW + 2,714]

10 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

“...as the energy you spend going up gets recovered coming back down.”

Ahhhh....the old perpetual motion machine! 

The trains my company operate recover 36% of the energy they use through regenerative braking. 

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

The quickest way to die is to use vegetable oil for cooking: it produces trans-fats like you wouldn't believe. When we use corn oil as biofuel, we're spewing that into the air--it may actually be worse than coal. And restaurant grease? Now you're really getting a two-for-one whammy. Just saying . . . 

There's a guy on another thread who keeps pumping these models out showing "peak oil supply." He's a bright fellow but man, has he overlooked an important factoid: conventional oil. And here I'm not really getting into offshore, about which I know nothing. I do know, however, that the number of conventional onshore wells is phenomenal. Those old wells from, say, 1980, were barely exploited: perhaps 5% yield. They drilled these things and moved on quickly, put in some gathering stations, and from then on it's just a guy driving around in a pickup collecting data for gauge reports and looking for problems. This is mostly done electronically these days.

My point? There's a massive amount of oil left behind in old conventional wells. When such a well becomes end-of-life, it pulls in salt, then water. Some of these old brine wells (western Canada, for example) are very rich in "Petrolithium," which would be an interesting by-product. Anyway, with new techniques, rather than plugging them at a cost of $30,000 per, I predict that a new industry of old oil well resuscitation will become a go-getter. 

As far as solid fats go I'd agree. Butter used in moderation is a natural product whereas margarine is the Devils Jizz and I wouldn't use it to grease fence posts...…..

However unhydrogenated rapeseed (Canola), Sunflower, soya oil etc are fine. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/10/2020 at 11:48 PM, Boat said:

Yea, it’s so expensive it dropped prices from $100 to today’s $55 which by the way is price supported by OPEC and Russia cutting production. Which btw took us from the worlds crashing economy to one of the longest stable economic periods the world has seen in modern history. 

You forgot to mention the $200bn debt of shale companies that falls due over the next 24 months and can't be re-paid?

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 2/12/2020 at 8:37 AM, ronwagn said:

Aren't there a lot of subsidies involved in the price though? Will the governments impose taxes to have these cars pay for their fair share of the road costs? How much will it cost to dispose of and replace the batteries? What fuel will produce the electricity for them? What will be the cost of the additional electrical infrastructure needed? 

I am not against electrical vehicles for those that want them, but Americans mostly like to drive larger vehicles. I prefer using natural gas vehicles. They are twice as prevalent around the world as electric vehicles and can replace diesel trucks and ship engines.

If electric vehicles can be charged fast enough I can see them taking over the small car market if they are truly economical. They will have to prove that they are though. Not for the wealthy buyer, but for the average family. I would only buy one if I thought it would save me money, and as a second car to use locally. Areas that do not suffer from air pollution might not be as motivated as urban dwellers either. I am one of those. After all, they are only as clean as the fuel used to produce their electricity. 

In Australia, they are already talking about switching to a "Road User Surcharge". Because we will eventually all be driving EV's, the govt will lose fuel excise revenue. So they gonna put GPS in our cars to track our "miles travelled", (and god knows what else). The police want the capability to remotely immobilise an engine to prevent car chase/speeding driver. Sounds scary to me!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

In Australia, they are already talking about switching to a "Road User Surcharge". Because we will eventually all be driving EV's, the govt will lose fuel excise revenue. So they gonna put GPS in our cars to track our "miles travelled", (and god knows what else). The police want the capability to remotely immobilise an engine to prevent car chase/speeding driver. Sounds scary to me!

The governments can only do this nonsense if the people let them! If you want to be a victim, you will be.