Canadian Pipelines finally getting built

[worntorn + 11]

After years of battle the approvals have come through. Trans Mountain is full speed ahead, pipe going in ground

Enbridge line 3 also has go ahead

Keystone XL got some good news as well.

I've read many articles here discussing setbacks and often stating that it was doubtful these pipelines would ever go ahead. Now they are going ahead and there hasn't been a single news article about that on Oilprice?

These are big pipelines connected to the largest energy reserves in North America, by far. Canada has the third largest oil reserves on the planet. Saudi Arabia is second, Venezuela is first. Canada currently ships about 4.4 mmbbls oil per day to the US,last I checked.

 

 

Glen

Some info on the pipelines. Most of this happened this week.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/enbridge-line-3-oil-pipeline-clears-hurdle-minnesota-regulator-rules-environment-statement-adequate-2/amp

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/commodities/trans-mountain-pipeline-challenge-dismissed-federal-court-of-appeal/amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/keystone-xl-wins-green-light-from-u-s-to-plow-ahead-on-project/amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.detroitnews.com/amp/4602081002

 

[BLA + 1,666]

On 2/6/2020 at 12:14 PM, worntorn said:

Now they are going ahead and there hasn't been a single news article about that on Oilprice?

These are big pipelines connected to the largest energy reserves in North America, by far. Canada has the third largest oil reserves on the planet. Saudi Arabia is second, Venezuela is first. 

 

Bitumen does not = Crude Oil . . . 

when it comes to reserves.  

I am glad the pipelines were approved.  

Edited February 8, 2020 by BLA

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, BLA said:

Bitumen does not = Crude Oil . . . 

when it comes to reserves.  

I am glad the pipelines were approved.  

Barrel equivalents, essentially the same.

[worntorn + 11]

The Gulf Coast Refineries certainly like it. Many of them are geared up for it as they know  Canadian heavy oil from bitumen will be their main source going forward.

Shale oil doesn't work for many of them. 

That's what Keystone XL is all about.

The Canadian reserves are real and being produced now.

Canada is the fourth largest exporter of oil in the world, ninety odd percent of which goes to the US. And most of it is out of the Oil Sands.

 

Glen

Edited February 8, 2020 by worntorn

[BLA + 1,666]

On 2/7/2020 at 11:31 PM, Enthalpic said:

Barrel equivalents, essentially the same.

BUT NOT PRICE EQUIVALENT 

Costs 2 1/2 as much to Mine, Process and Transport the Bitumen.

Yes, they love in Gulf Coast because oil majors invested over $400 Billion (Sunk Cost) in Tar Sands Oil after OPEC/Saudi squeezed the U.S. producers in 1998 to 1999 and an Autocratic Socialist Dictator Nationalized the Venezuela oil industry.  They then spent Ten's Billions extra to upgrade half the Gulf Coast refineries to be able to refine the crap.

If oil settles around $50 bbl as CITI commodities analyst believes Bitumen won't be able to compete. They'll continue to produce and squeeze a little cash flow out of sales due to the hefty non-cash depreciation and tax loss carry forward expenses. 

I like that.  Send all the dilbit to U.S.   More supply equals lower oil prices per bbl. 

Edited February 9, 2020 by BLA

[BLA + 1,666]

On 2/7/2020 at 11:44 PM, worntorn said:

The Gulf Coast Refineries certainly like it. Many of them are geared up for it as they know  Canadian heavy oil from bitumen will be their main source going forward.

Shale oil doesn't work for many of them. 

That's what Keystone XL is all about.

The Canadian reserves are real and being produced now.

Canada is the fourth largest exporter of oil in the world, ninety odd percent of which goes to the US. And most of it is out of the Oil Sands.

Many Gulf Refiners now adding Condensate Splitters to process shale oil.

Exxon last year completed major expansion at their largest refinery .  Expansion processes light oil

When Venezuela comes back online (Trump tightening the sanctions noose around Venezuela's  neck) the world will need even less Canadian Tar Sands Bitumen. 

All Bitumen is not the same.  There are 18 different grades of Bitumen in Canada alone. A large portion of Venezuela's reserves is Bitumen.  However there is a big difference btw Cd and Vz Bitumen. VISCOSITY.   The Vz Bitumen actually "flows" its a liquid. A very heavy liquid, but still a liquid.  It's a very heavy oil that can be Mined, Processed and Transported at much lower cost than Cd Bitumen.  More like crude as opposed to the Canadian sludge that has the consistency of peanut butter. 

Like I said more oil is great, BUT I WOULD NOT INVEST IN ANY TAR SAND COMPANIES BECAUSE OF THE GOOD NEWS REGARDING PIPELINES. It is a losing proposition. 

 

Edited February 9, 2020 by BLA

[worntorn + 11]

I suspect the Oilsands will keep supplying major amounts of oil to the US for decades.

For the US there is no multi trillion dollar war cost, full security of supply and 130 years of reserves at current production rates, all right next door. You may call it sludge, the refiners just keep calling for more.

Glen

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

After all of the anti-Trudeau hysteria in Alberta, he manages to push their pipeline through. For 10 years the Stephen Harper Tories couldn't get that done.

Anyway, Alberta needs to work hard because this might be it's last chance to make decent money off oil. They have to spend that money on diversification.  It's still some of the more expensive oil on the planet, so any slowdown that happens hits them really hard.

Thus far I'm not convince they can. They've had two oil rushes in the last 50 years and squandered them both. It's been a long time since a provincial government really showed ambition there.

[BLA + 1,666]

7 hours ago, worntorn said:

 

For the US there is no multi trillion dollar war cost, full security of supply and 130 years of reserves at current production rates, all right next door. You may call it sludge, the refiners just keep calling for more.

No multi Trillion war costs in Venezuela

130 year reserves in Canada. WHO CARES.  PEAK DEMAND 2025. It's all a decline from there. At least 97% of Canadian bitumen will stay in the ground.

Gulf Refiners (Valero, Exxon) starting to convert to allow for light oil. 

Go ahead, invest in tar sands.  Good Luck.

Edited February 12, 2020 by BLA

[Boat + 1,324]

Trump may have failed on coal but seems to be the winner on Canadian tar sands. Maybe some FF oligarchs know the inside reason but it has nothing to do with US transportation consumption needs. Years down the road if a Dem wins the White House will all this activity become stranded assets? Only time will tell. But conventional wisdom from the greens worried about FF emissions will certainly make any tar sand export a target.

[worntorn + 11]

2 hours ago, BLA said:

No multi Trillion war costs in Venezuela

130 year reserves. WHO CARES.  PEAK DEMAND 2025. It's all a decline from there. At least 97% will stay in the ground.

Gulf Refiners (Valero, Exxon) starting to convert to allow for light oil. 

Go ahead, invest in tar sands.  Good Luck.

I've always avoided the Oilsands in favour of dividend paying Canadian Conventional oil as the production cost of the Conventional was very low. Even when oil crashed, they could still pay a dividend, albeit reduced. There have been lots of ups and downs, but overall it has worked out quite well over the last 30 years.

It might be time for me to add some Oilsands. When things are pounded down and out of fashion but still needed despite all the noise, that's often the time to jump in.

I remember the popular viewpoint in 1998 with oil at $12 a bbl was that it would go to $6 a bbl and stay there for fifty years. Pundits said get rid of trees and rocks from your portfolio, those were the old economy and they are no longer needed. The new economy is in these Dotcom stocks like Nortel that soar. Nortel went to zero in the Dotcom bust. Oil went to 147 as we now know.

Probably more luck than brains, I bought the oilstock and pipeline stock that was being dumped.

My thought was that oil would be needed and it could go as high as $20 some day!

I'm getting deja vu in 2020, this time on the Oilsands.

Glen

 

[Chris Kanaan + 22]

Company's like Suncor and CNRL have lowered their costs to compete with anybody, which is why their stocks have been so strong despite lack of pipe and even a historical blowout of WCS differentials last year.  Suncor, CNRL, Cenovus and even embattled heavily debted MEG have outperformed most US shale companies on paper over the past year.

Some have a vested interest to crush Canadian crude, we can see that on here with the "tar sands" label.  Canadian company's have the highest ESG standards in the world.  If you want to use ethical oil, you'll want to use Canadian - if you don't your support oil which isn't as environmentally friendly as that found in Alberta.

Bitumen mines like Teck's Frontier project have a higher initial capital requirement, after it's built, costs go down significantly and they are amongst the most competitive sources of oil in NA.

[BLA + 1,666]

1 hour ago, Chris Kanaan said:

Company's like Suncor and CNRL have lowered their costs to compete with anybody, which is why their stocks have been so strong despite lack of pipe and even a historical blowout of WCS differentials last year.  Suncor, CNRL, Cenovus and even embattled heavily debted MEG have outperformed most US shale companies on paper over the past year.

Some have a vested interest to crush Canadian crude, we can see that on here with the "tar sands" label.  Canadian company's have the highest ESG standards in the world.  If you want to use ethical oil, you'll want to use Canadian - if you don't your support oil which isn't as environmentally friendly as that found in Alberta.

Bitumen mines like Teck's Frontier project have a higher initial capital requirement, after it's built, costs go down significantly and they are amongst the most competitive sources of oil in NA.

Costs have come down but it really is about the cash flow.  Ask Warren Buffet.

Re tecks Frontier project.  It will never go forward.  $15 Billion is a big risk.  

Edited February 10, 2020 by BLA

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 2/9/2020 at 2:25 AM, worntorn said:

I suspect the Oilsands will keep supplying major amounts of oil to the US for decades.

For the US there is no multi trillion dollar war cost, full security of supply and 130 years of reserves at current production rates, all right next door. You may call it sludge, the refiners just keep calling for more.

Glen

I would prefer to see the U.S  import heavy tar sands crude oil from Canada - a friendly ally - than import crude oil from Venezuela or the Middle East, which essentially hate the U.S. and would prefer to see "The Great Satan" dead.

If the U.S. could / would shift its heavy crude import supply over to Canada and away from Venezuela / Middle East, then it would be beneficial for Canada and the U.S.

(Yes, the U.S  still imports quite a bit of crude oil, despite what much of the media says otherwise.(

Anyway, then the Socialist Paradise of Venezuela and the Religious Dictatorships of the Middle East could be left to their own devices and mostly ignored by the U.S. and Canada.

Just a thought.

[specinho + 470]

pipeline above the ground??

Quote

Calgary's surge in frozen pipes worst in 40 years 

http://www.cbc.ca › frozen-pipes-homeowners-frosted-calgary-1.5051182

Remembered a member calling for climate warming over there the other month......

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

On 2/9/2020 at 3:31 AM, Geoff Guenther said:

After all of the anti-Trudeau hysteria in Alberta, he manages to push their pipeline through. For 10 years the Stephen Harper Tories couldn't get that done.

1) WHO opposed them just for spite? Liberals/NDP

2) Who got the process approved just to see Trudope and company cancel them?  Hrmm?

Is everything opposite world in your universe?

[Keith boyd + 178]

80% of the bitumen reserves in alberta Is off the books. Oops giving out not so secret secrets again. The oil sands deposit stretches right through Saskatchewan and Manitoba and north Dakota. It's too deep to mine and not rich enough for S.A.G.D. extraction for now. 

 

In b4 haters calling it uneconomical reserves. I present to you....american shale. Bitumens retarded little cousin who was also "uneconomical" 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

1) WHO opposed them just for spite? Liberals/NDP

2) Who got the process approved just to see Trudope and company cancel them?  Hrmm?

Is everything opposite world in your universe?

1) NDP and the green party sure. Lib no.

2) The original review / approval (under the conservatives) was considered inadequate by the courts (not the liberals).  The cons tried to cheat by stacking the NEB review group with a bunch of biased oil men.

3) The liberals bought the entire project, got the new approval, and this review was considered good enough that the courts rejected the appeal this time.

Argue all you want... fact is the pipe is finally going in the ground and it is under the Liberals.

Edited February 10, 2020 by Enthalpic

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

3) The liberals bought the entire project, got the new approval, and this review was considered good enough that the courts rejected the appeal this time.

Argue all you want... fact is the pipe is finally going in the ground and it is under the Liberals.

Damn, where is the rolling on the floor award for narcissism... 🤣🤣🤣

[Boat + 1,324]

None of these foreign and foreign oil commenters mention that 30% of refinery capacity in the US is foreign owned. So we will have an influx of foreign oil going through foreign refineries then exported to foreign countries. That’s Trump patriotism doing back door deals at the expense of American land and air. 
Typically over 3 mbpd of refined products are exported every day above and beyond what the US needs for consumption. This is about as smart as China buying the worlds trash to sort to make a buck. A practice that has been ended I read. It would be smart to end this same liquid trash practice. 
Kill those foreign refineries and we wouldn’t need much foreign oil imported now would we. 
Saudi oil to Saudi refinery. Venezuela oil to Venezuela refinery. Russian oil to who? 
Meanwhile back at the ranch, domestic oil produced by American workers is criticized by lovers of foreign oil. Hmmmmmm, then you wonder why I ask if this is a Russian propaganda site. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 minutes ago, Boat said:

None of these foreign and foreign oil commenters mention that 30% of refinery capacity in the US is foreign owned. So we will have an influx of foreign oil going through foreign refineries then exported to foreign countries. That’s Trump patriotism doing back door deals at the expense of American land and air. 
Typically over 3 mbpd of refined products are exported every day above and beyond what the US needs for consumption. This is about as smart as China buying the worlds trash to sort to make a buck. A practice that has been ended I read. It would be smart to end this same liquid trash practice. 
Kill those foreign refineries and we wouldn’t need much foreign oil imported now would we. 
Saudi oil to Saudi refinery. Venezuela oil to Venezuela refinery. Russian oil to who? 
Meanwhile back at the ranch, domestic oil produced by American workers is criticized by lovers of foreign oil. Hmmmmmm, then you wonder why I ask if this is a Russian propaganda site. 

True, but the foreign companies that own those refineries hire US workers. Those are good paying jobs.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

11 minutes ago, Boat said:

then you wonder why I ask if this is a Russian propaganda site. 

Confirmed, this is indeed a Russian propaganda site.  And I am a Russian bot.  

[Chris Kanaan + 22]

21 hours ago, BLA said:

Costs have come down but it really is about the cash flow.  Ask Warren Buffet.

Re tecks Frontier project.  It will never go forward.  $15 Billion is a big risk.  

Warren Buffet bought into Suncor again last year.

Buffet also made a huge mistake and got caught by the shale quicksand with OXY.

I believe the "sweetener" deal which resulted in Buffet getting warrants are now worthless.

Also, the common shareholder now gets more then his preferreds at the time of the deal!

CNRL and Suncor are raking in massive amounts of FCF.  Even MEG is a FCF machine.

Look out OPEC after Keystone XL and Line 3 come online, let alone TMX.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Chris Kanaan said:

Warren Buffet bought into Suncor again last year.

Buffet also made a huge mistake and got caught by the shale quicksand with OXY.

I believe the "sweetener" deal which resulted in Buffet getting warrants are now worthless.

Also, the common shareholder now gets more then his preferreds at the time of the deal!

CNRL and Suncor are raking in massive amounts of FCF.  Even MEG is a FCF machine.

Look out OPEC after Keystone XL and Line 3 come online, let alone TMX.

Any ideas about why Baytex is so cheap? 

[Chris Kanaan + 22]

5 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Any ideas about why Baytex is so cheap? 

Not sure how you define cheap.  I never liked Baytex, never did and don't now.

Although they were recently re-financed at a costly $, they'll remain a risky play unless oil prices jump much higher, like $60 or higher and stay there for years to come.

Last month I bought some Baytex calls for Feb 20 thinking it would jump on re-financing and that oil was going above $60, which it was, until the Wuhan virus.  Luckily, I didn't buy the stock.

But last time they fell to this level a couple months ago, they were up over 60% within a month.

Still, I wouldn't buy Baytex but a good stock to swing trade when oil spikes indeed.