On Venezuela

[jose chalhoub + 388]

 

For anyone interested or following the situation in Venezuela, here's whats been unfolding in the last recent days:

1.) Allegedly the opposition and members of official party in the Assembly agreed on members to nominate the new electoral council. (no presidential elections but parliamentary elections is whats brewing)

2.) Shootout in one of the main highways in Caracas between security and police officials and criminals keeping drivers in the middle.

3.) A silent Juan Guaido..

4.) An oil tanker captain killed in a venezuelan oil port.

5.) A divided somewhat artificial economy between those dollars haves and those dollars have nots (only earning minimum wages in devaluated bolivars) 6.) Capital city of Caracas a bubble (for how long?) of stability in the middle of a critical rest of the country.

7.) A nationwide protest and march called recently by Juan Guaido to the National Assembly for the coming March 10th. (crucial to see the attendance)

8.) PDVSA still facing critical moments amid protracted US sanctions againt venezuelan oil and secondary sanctions against ROSNEFT and other companies trading venezuelan oil and a restructuring process inside the industry. In sum, despite many labelling Venezuela showing a slight economic recovery, this if far from true and without real macro and microeconomic measures and a real political revamping, this year will be even worse than 2019 for the country, amid fears of potential cases of coronavirus in the middle also of a deep public health services crisis. 

Gasoline shortages countrywide except the capital Caracas, power blackouts common, critical public services overall. 

[BLA + 1,666]

7 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

 

For anyone interested or following the situation in Venezuela, here's whats been unfolding in the last recent days:

1.) Allegedly the opposition and members of official party in the Assembly agreed on members to nominate the new electoral council. (no presidential elections but parliamentary elections is whats brewing)

2.) Shootout in one of the main highways in Caracas between security and police officials and criminals keeping drivers in the middle.

3.) A silent Juan Guaido..

4.) An oil tanker captain killed in a venezuelan oil port.

5.) A divided somewhat artificial economy between those dollars haves and those dollars have nots (only earning minimum wages in devaluated bolivars) 6.) Capital city of Caracas a bubble (for how long?) of stability in the middle of a critical rest of the country.

7.) A nationwide protest and march called recently by Juan Guaido to the National Assembly for the coming March 10th. (crucial to see the attendance)

8.) PDVSA still facing critical moments amid protracted US sanctions againt venezuelan oil and secondary sanctions against ROSNEFT and other companies trading venezuelan oil and a restructuring process inside the industry. In sum, despite many labelling Venezuela showing a slight economic recovery, this if far from true and without real macro and microeconomic measures and a real political revamping, this year will be even worse than 2019 for the country, amid fears of potential cases of coronavirus in the middle also of a deep public health services crisis. 

Gasoline shortages countrywide except the capital Caracas, power blackouts common, critical public services overall. 

Jose

How do you think this is going to play out.

I guess Trump may end the Chevron reprieve ?

Pres Trump was asked about Vz during press conference in India.  

He kinda hinted that something coming soon.

Any thoughts ?

Thanks

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by BLA

[Marcin2 + 725]

US, Russia and China just want to grab this 18 trillion dollars underground bounty.

The rest is just bullsh*t ( not your post just the topic of human rights etc., US cares about human rights in 10 countries and does not care in 160 countries, somehow first group is rich in hydrocarbons)

Chinese and Russian narrative is about sovereignty, just because they are still weaker than US, and this solution gives access to oil for everyone.

US on the other hand could and will block oil exports if convenient.

Not directly, some strikes or unhappy event at installations will occur, or red tape, or whatever.

The curse of oil again.

[jose chalhoub + 388]

15 hours ago, BLA said:

Jose

How do you think this is going to play out.

I guess Trump may end the Chevron reprieve ?

Pres Trump was asked about Vz during press conference in India.  

He kinda hinted that something coming soon.

Any thoughts ?

Thanks

 

In my view ending the waiver to CHEVRON, HALLIBURTON, SCHLUMBERGER which are still operating with PDVSA will deal an important blow to the industry and if there are concerns over the possible replacement of CHEVRON by ROSNEFT and CNPC they will have troubles as ROSNEFT is being chased also by the US government. Meanwhile Juan Guaido after his arrival has been rather quiet and with less fanfare than before his trip and meeting with Donald Trump suggesting and hinting at potential changes of strategies by the Trump administration against Maduro in the coming days, weeks and months before the presidential elections in the U.S. Sincerely i dont see how for much longer Maduro could hold on without sufficient oil production and refining while gasoline shortages in the inner country continue as the country is running out of forex reserves and all its macro indicators are in critical shape despite the help from many allies of Maduro such as Russia, China, Turkey being China rather quiet and not much able to continue throwing out money as it used to during Chavez era seeing the mess Venezuela has gotten into especially under Maduro. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

Also PDVSA is not faring well at all, with miserable wages for workers, many resignations expected after many already done, its refining sector in shambles, added to this the electric crisis the country is going through which impacted heavily oil production from wells. Overall Venezuela will need a massive inflow of money from multilateral institutions, a deep revamping of PDVSA from zero if its possible, focusing on recovering production and refining, the 2 most critical areas affected, also taking huge steps against corruption inside the industry, demilitarise the sector and crucial, keeping it away from politics and from the direct decisions of the president of the country which has the power to name the president of PDVSA, which i dont believe its healthy at all. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

And right after Trump's visit to India, here is the news on Reliance and Nayara planning to stop oil purchases from Venezuela starting April: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-sanctions-venezuela-india-exclusi/exclusive-indian-refiners-plan-to-wind-down-venezuelan-oil-buys-in-april-sources-idUSKCN20M16H

[jose chalhoub + 388]

In other ideas, Maduro seems to be handling more control of PDVSA to private hands and especially to russian control. Here it is important to underscore the fact that in recent months former PDVSA workers have left the company and now are working for companies such as ROSNEFT offering them better wages and salaries hinting at the strategy followed by Russia in gaining more and more control of the venezuelan oil sector in its geopolitical chess game against the U.S. where Maduro is being a puppet. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Maduro is giving the country to the Russians, Cubans, and the Chinese.  Or at least what remains of it.  We're looking at a civil war if this continues.

[jose chalhoub + 388]

41 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Maduro is giving the country to the Russians, Cubans, and the Chinese.  Or at least what remains of it.  We're looking at a civil war if this continues.

venezuelan people dont want civil war simply is not our nature but Maduro has handed out many weapons and created ipopular militias and urban gangs coupled with his deals with guerrilla groups in Colombia which could be a dangerous cocktail for any potential civil war. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

10 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

US, Russia and China just want to grab this 18 trillion dollars underground bounty.

The rest is just bullsh*t ( not your post just the topic of human rights etc., US cares about human rights in 10 countries and does not care in 160 countries, somehow first group is rich in hydrocarbons)

Chinese and Russian narrative is about sovereignty, just because they are still weaker than US, and this solution gives access to oil for everyone.

US on the other hand could and will block oil exports if convenient.

Not directly, some strikes or unhappy event at installations will occur, or red tape, or whatever.

The curse of oil again.

i just dont see any overt military intervention of the US in Venezuela but an escalation of sanctions, potential total naval blockades and who knows, maybe a specific action of "extraction" of high levels officials of venezuelan government in a surgical operation but not this year before the elections in the U.S. Russia still will want its share of the pie as long as Putin remains in power as he views the world today and Russia's role in it. China remains busy stabilising coronavirus and wont lend any more money to Venezuela. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

22 minutes ago, jose chalhoub said:

i just dont see any overt military intervention of the US in Venezuela but an escalation of sanctions, potential total naval blockades and who knows, maybe a specific action of "extraction" of high levels officials of venezuelan government in a surgical operation but not this year before the elections in the U.S. Russia still will want its share of the pie as long as Putin remains in power as he views the world today and Russia's role in it. China remains busy stabilising coronavirus and wont lend any more money to Venezuela. 

Russia is 100% on de-dollarization now. Russian oil is sold in euro. They do not carr about any US sanctions. This the stage at the moment.

It also means Maduro could not be toppled and Venezuela could not be subject of naval blockage or extraction or of course overt military operation. This would mean war. Russia can easily deploy nuclear weapons in Venezuela to check mate US, I think a lot of support of Maduro is to keep this option afloat.

Washington is 2000 miles away off Venezuelan shores. Russian nuclear tipped missiles make this in 8 minutes.

 Support of Venezuela is relatively cheap and very long term investment. Rosneft could indefinitely import Venezuelan oil and assure enough revenues for Maduro to keep current status quo. Russia can „invest” up to 10 billion dollars each year. The bill will be footed by China.

Venezuela is key for keeping US occuppied in America and for de-dollarization. Another 5 m bbl/d sold in Euro or yuan could start domino.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[BLA + 1,666]

On 2/28/2020 at 12:15 PM, Zhong Lu said:

Maduro is giving the country to the Russians, Cubans, and the Chinese.  Or at least what remains of it.  We're looking at a civil war if this continues.

Now hearing Trump administration trying to work with Vz military to oust Maduro and share power with Guaido. 

Companies like EXXON, CONOCO and Chevron have a claim to oil assets they owned before Nationalization.

Also, Guaido could void Russian and Chinese agreements as illegitament .

 

Edited February 29, 2020 by BLA

[jose chalhoub + 388]

For now there is not a chance since this has been a failed script in the past even if there is indeed discontent in the lower ranks of the armed forces towards the well connected generals and colonels making fortunes out of controlling key sectors of the economy and even if they think about turning against Maduro it could be trusting they wont be touched or jailed or chased and they dont trust Guaido either, unless they see there is no more chances to get advantages of an already crippled economy in a critical state as is now venezuela's. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

2 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Russia is 100% on de-dollarization now. Russian oil is sold in euro. They do not carr about any US sanctions. This the stage at the moment.

It also means Maduro could not be toppled and Venezuela could not be subject of naval blockage or extraction or of course overt military operation. This would mean war. Russia can easily deploy nuclear weapons in Venezuela to check mate US, I think a lot of support of Maduro is to keep this option afloat.

Washington is 2000 miles away off Venezuelan shores. Russian nuclear tipped missiles make this in 8 minutes.

 Support of Venezuela is relatively cheap and very long term investment. Rosneft could indefinitely import Venezuelan oil and assure enough revenues for Maduro to keep current status quo. Russia can „invest” up to 10 billion dollars each year. The bill will be footed by China.

Venezuela is key for keeping US occuppied in America and for de-dollarization. Another 5 m bbl/d sold in Euro or yuan could start domino.

In the end i think the world will end up being divided into spheres of influence between Russia, the U.S. and China also maybe Turkey, India and Iran, and here Venezuela falls or will fall as it traditionally has been under U.S. zone of influence since other spots such as Ukraine or Georgia or Eurasia as a whole represents a spot of much more relevance to Moscow's geopolitical objectives and much closer than what Venezuela is and considering the situation where Russia is now under constant sanctions by the U.S. i think in the end when Maduro stops being useful or a puppet, Putin will simply let go off him. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

Nope, Russia got clear directives, Venezuelan oil will be Russian , this means Chinese.

Russia will got Putin state of dictatorship for Venezuelan oil for 150 years in return. Russians will do anything China will order them to do. 
just straight junior and senior guys relations.

[Marcin2 + 725]

Russia is nuclear and good military, and China their protector, 10 times bigger, the military alliance have 30 million square km to rule.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 minute ago, Marcin2 said:

Nope, Russia got clear directives, Venezuelan oil will be Russian , this means Chinese.

Russia will got Putin state of dictatorship for Venezuelan oil for 150 years in return. Russians will do anything China will order them to do. 
just straight junior and senior guys relations.

You are claiming that Russia is a puppet of China?

You are severely underestimating Putin.

 

[Marcin2 + 725]

Vladimir vladimirowicz Putin is going to be here till about 2032 , 2027 at least. This is already planned in Russia. Xi will leave the stage about 2030.

[Marcin2 + 725]

3 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

You are claiming that Russia is a puppet of China?

You are severely underestimating Putin.

 

Unfortunately this is 100% true , Russia gets full protection for any Russian dynasty, even a goat could become PM, in return Russia is a mad dog to bite US.

[Marcin2 + 725]

China plays this with Russia for 20 years, many books, astonishingly good books onthe subject. 

[Marcin2 + 725]

8 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

You are claiming that Russia is a puppet of China?

You are severely underestimating Putin.

 

Just a junior partner with teeth.

Welcome to the Chinese century.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

31 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Just a junior partner with teeth.

Welcome to the Chinese century.

The totalitarian CCP will inevitably shoot itself in the foot.

The only way that there is any possibility that this can become the "Chinese Century" is if the CCP gets removed from power by its own citizens, like removing a cancer.

Socialism / Communism inevitably ends extremely badly, with many, many people dead at the hands of their own totalitarian governments.

China with CCP in power will likely be headed for a similar fate as Venezuela soon, where Socialism destroyed a developed country in the span of a single generation.

While you are free to glorify the CCP, I am also free to ridicule the CCP's inherent totalitarian nature, and obscene over-censorship, and heavy-handed crackdown against Orwellian Though Crimes.

Social Credit Score, coming soon to a Pre-Crime Thought Police Station near you, and on your mobile phone.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Russia is 100% on de-dollarization now. Russian oil is sold in euro. They do not carr about any US sanctions. This the stage at the moment.

It also means Maduro could not be toppled and Venezuela could not be subject of naval blockage or extraction or of course overt military operation. This would mean war. Russia can easily deploy nuclear weapons in Venezuela to check mate US, I think a lot of support of Maduro is to keep this option afloat.

Washington is 2000 miles away off Venezuelan shores. Russian nuclear tipped missiles make this in 8 minutes.

 Support of Venezuela is relatively cheap and very long term investment. Rosneft could indefinitely import Venezuelan oil and assure enough revenues for Maduro to keep current status quo. Russia can „invest” up to 10 billion dollars each year. The bill will be footed by China.

Venezuela is key for keeping US occuppied in America and for de-dollarization. Another 5 m bbl/d sold in Euro or yuan could start domino.

You do remember the Cuban Missile Crisis, don’t you?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

venezuelan people dont want civil war simply is not our nature but Maduro has handed out many weapons and created ipopular militias and urban gangs coupled with his deals with guerrilla groups in Colombia which could be a dangerous cocktail for any potential civil war. 

Jose, I understand you when you say ‘civil war simply not our nature’, but if you want your country back...you may need to develop and nurture this ‘nature’.

At the end of the day, it is not the responsibility of ANY other country to get rid of Maduro and get back on an even keel.

I also understand that the Venezuelan people are ‘outgunned’ at the moment and will need help toppling Maduro and his regime...this is where the Venezuelan people need to be careful, VERY careful. When everything is said and done, the Venezuelans need to ensure that ‘Venezuela is for Venezuelans’, not a puppet of the US, China, Russia or anyone else! Choose your allies wisely.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

Also PDVSA is not faring well at all, with miserable wages for workers, many resignations expected after many already done, its refining sector in shambles, added to this the electric crisis the country is going through which impacted heavily oil production from wells. Overall Venezuela will need a massive inflow of money from multilateral institutions, a deep revamping of PDVSA from zero if its possible, focusing on recovering production and refining, the 2 most critical areas affected, also taking huge steps against corruption inside the industry, demilitarise the sector and crucial, keeping it away from politics and from the direct decisions of the president of the country which has the power to name the president of PDVSA, which i dont believe its healthy at all. 

How about the oil glut and low price and poor future outlook on prices? Venezuelan oil is more needed in the next decade it seems to me. That is a long time requiring financial support. Low oil prices hurt the Russian economy far more than the United States economy. 

https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/chinas-coronavirus-crisis-hits-russian-energy-sector-02282020111833.html

Edited February 29, 2020 by ronwagn
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