CCP holding back virus data . . . . . . Spanish Flu 1918 MUTATED, Came in 3 waves, Lasted 14 months and killed upward 5% World population

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

3 hours ago, Wombat said:

The counter-argument... The Spanish Flu increased poverty in 1918 but had 'no discernible affect on corporate earnings."   That is a valid counter argument.

Plus I said that

 

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

You will eventually get a job

I employ 250 people!

You??

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

6 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

3 hours ago, Wombat said:

The counter-argument... The Spanish Flu increased poverty in 1918 but had 'no discernible affect on corporate earnings."   That is a valid counter argument.

Plus I said that

Well done!

Pat yourself on the back, crack open the champagne!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

20 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Then start a new thread called "Calm down mate."

Okey dokey.

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

9 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Okey dokey.

Haha you beat me to it Tom!

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I employ 250 people!

You??

Great you win!  I work 2 days a week and don't need money. I win. A homeless guy never works at all. He wins!  

I'm sure you have no debt, your company has no debt and a 30% downturn in the economy is okey dokey with the 250 people who you think worship the ground you walk on. 

[J.mo + 165]

21 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Great you win!  I work 2 days a week and don't need money. I win. A homeless guy never works at all. He wins!  

I'm sure you have no debt, your company has no debt and a 30% downturn in the economy is okey dokey with the 250 people who you think worship the ground you walk on. 

 

21 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Great you win!  I work 2 days a week and don't need money. I win. A homeless guy never works at all. He wins!  

I'm sure you have no debt, your company has no debt and a 30% downturn in the economy is okey dokey with the 250 people who you think worship the ground you walk on. 

People always ask me why I live the way I live. the answer is, i dont know the unknown. I have a small business, 3 employees. 0 household debt. I can make the payment on my building for 5 years without a drop of income if I pull a corona lockdown tomorrow and board it up. I can also operate the operation solely by myself when things kick back up until I acquire new help. 

Can most of the big whigs say that? So who is really better off..

Situations like THIS are exactly why I dont gorge myself in traditional american lifestyle 

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

1 hour ago, J.mo said:

 

People always ask me why I live the way I live. the answer is, i dont know the unknown. I have a small business, 3 employees. 0 household debt. I can make the payment on my building for 5 years without a drop of income if I pull a corona lockdown tomorrow and board it up. I can also operate the operation solely by myself when things kick back up until I acquire new help. 

Can most of the big whigs say that? So who is really better off..

Situations like THIS are exactly why I dont gorge myself in traditional american lifestyle 

Amen to that. In 2002 I was named one of the top 5 I.T. Executives in the U.S. by Computerworld Magazine (Premiere 100 then "Best in Class"). But had to work my ass off, supervise an entire department, and deal with shit every day. I was only 30, so it wasn't a big deal. But who wants to spend their life doing that?  It turns out that we all sit on the same toilet and use the same bidet... (If you don't have a bidet you are missing out... add this one to your toilet for $40. It's worth every penny for a clean ass. (https://www.amazon.com/Luxe-Bidet-Neo-120-Non-Electric/dp/B00A0RHSJO/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?keywords=bidet&qid=1583524874&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEzTzFDTkM0TDlTR01SJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwNTY2NTU2MjZIM0U2SkpUOEswMSZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUEwOTE1NDI4MTcyVUlDS01MNFhFMyZ3aWRnZXROYW1lPXNwX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU=)

My 400,000 mile Prius goes the same speed on the tollway as every brand new Mercedes. You can only sit in one chair, watch one TV, use one laptop at a time. Rich people's wives are just as much a pain in the ass as poor people's. Life with zero debt, paid off farm, and the ability to have the entire world go to crap around you without losing any sleep is the life. The milk I drank this morning I got from my goats last night. Nothing more secure than that. 

Cheers!

Here's a new chart from CNBC on where the jobs are.   Let's look:

Education and Health Services will survive Corona. 

Leisure and Hospitality - A Zombie Apocolypse

Government - those lazy useless people have nothing to fear

Construction - See ya! Wouldn't wanna be ya!

Professional and Business Services - White guys who think they do things... Heavily effected... Once you get them to "work from home" they won't need to clean out their desk when they are laid off.

Financial Activities - Depends on who you are. How many "mortgage brokers" will there by in 9 months?

Manufacturing - Will come back once the factories re-open. but they can't work from home in the meantime.  They won't get paid for staying home.

Mining and logging - Sure they'll be fine.

Wholesale trade - 25% of cargoes from China disappeared. 

Transportation and Warehousing - 25% of cargoes from China disappeared.

Retail Trade - if you're an Amazon.com slave you're job is safe.  If you stand on a sales floor or behind a register, you don't have far to fall from your $10 an hour job, but it will still hurt nonetheless.

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[0R0 + 6,251]

11 hours ago, Wombat said:

I here you Oro, but rest assured, the West is "cookin the books" even worse than China? Do u really believe US no longer has household debt problem? They count rise in share price and house prices as "assets", hence things sound hunky dory. Until they don't?

Yes, there are shenanigans, Italy is by far the worst extend and pretender. You need only make one payment over 9 mo to have your loan in good standing. 

US is orders of magnitude better shape. The core remaining problem is a book of jumbo loans from California's housing bubble that is still being prevented from foreclosure liquidation and recognition of losses. About 15 mil houses with varying degrees of negative amortization. As the loans keep rising relative to the value of the underlying property, the banks have no motive to get them liquidated. It is extremely concentrated, the nominal amount is $6 Tril, embedded loss is about $1-2T. About 5-10% of GDP ultimately if they get foreclosed.

China's implied NPLs from Debt/GDP stats, particularly corp SOE and SIV. financial and households is 25-30%. According to Charlene Chu's (formerly Fitch head of China credit ratings) estimates based on global historical credit statistics. In the SOE sector and SIVs it ranges around 80% by my attempts to estimate it from official stats most of the years since 2012, except 2016-17 and 2013-4. If you include off the books numbers then it looks better as NPLs in the private sector were in the ~17% level (from memory) before the coronavirus. I don't know how bad it is now, but I assume it would be at least 30% for now and concentrated in WMP and AMP not associated with banks, meaning that it would be hard to rescue that sector with bank policy. 

The big illusion in China's housing sector is the values, as in Hong Kong and in 1989 Japan, leverage is 50% by regulatory cap. But family and street level finance is rampant  and can't be captured in the stats. By price to income, the problem is about 5X higher than the peak of the US housing market in CA. It is as bad as Japan's housing bubble. The losses in Japan were 80% in real estate. The same is due in HK and China. That is about a 60% loss potential on bank's mortgage books - which is still less than corp and provincial SIV debt losses.. And most substantially, a huge knock off of China's large soon to be retired boomer generation who have most of their assets in unaffordable real estate. 

I am assuming that China is going to try and dilute this credit with monetary inflation, which would be forgiven by their people and general int'l markets as prices, particularly of food, rise sharply. The virus opportunity is for having good PR cover as they induce an inflationary monetary impulse so that they don't get a social backlash. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by 0R0

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

20 hours ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

Great you win!  I work 2 days a week and don't need money. I win. A homeless guy never works at all. He wins!  

I'm sure you have no debt, your company has no debt and a 30% downturn in the economy is okey dokey with the 250 people who you think worship the ground you walk on. 

Yep no debt, no mortgage

we had a 10% downturn in the global recession and 15% downturn when oil hit $30 so a fairly resilient business.

i don’t want to be worshipped by anyone.

i just want to provide 250 families with an income that supports them. Is that wrong?

Anthony it was you that said I needed a job for some reason, I don’t need to work but I enjoy it. It looks like it’s actually you that needs one if you work 2 days a week, maybe you don’t need to, but man you must be bored!

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 3/5/2020 at 9:56 AM, Rob Plant said:

ORO has presented some pretty damning financial statistics on the financial health of China going forward, are you refuting these stats??

If ORO is correct I cannot see China getting anywhere near USA in 20 years, so you needn't be worried about security in Eastern Europe from Russia. Your Eu friends should start paying their way into NATO and the US may actually be happy to continue to foot most of the bill.

Admittedly Poland do and Canada is actually the worst culprit. It looks like the US in particular and the UK to a lesser extent subsidize NATO, Greece and Estonia arent a consideration as their GDP arent that significant in the first place.

https://money.cnn.com/2016/07/08/news/nato-summit-spending-countries/index.html

Let me tell you a secret about Poland.

Poland is one of the few countries in NATO in which military pensions are paid out of the military budget. My father does not complain because these are very decent pensions consuming some 0,5 % of the total 2% spent on the army.

For this we have about 50,000 officers and non-commissioned officers and 70,000 privates so I think that should look a little strange composition of army for everyone.

I do not want it to turn out that living in Poland I am anti-Polish but the equipment at the disposal of the Polish army is very often  the subject of mockery in all Polish forums.

50-year-old BWP-1 combat vehicles, 50-year-old submarines, 40-year-old T-72M tanks (not to be confused with the Russian T-72B), 40-year-old Su-22 planes, anti aicraftaft  kits S-200 Newa successful in fighting the Americas dating back to the Vietnam War.

In general, the combat condition of the Polish army is rather  generally weak.

Basically, the Polish army will spend most money on salaries and pensions and on F-35 style toys.

I do not mean that Poland should not have an F-35 but is not doing very well with the F-16 and Mig-29 so far, which is also the subject of press articles.

Recently, the press panicked, as it turned out that the MIg-29 are out of service and by the not-very-careful service of those already in a fight 6 out of 48 F-16..

 

It is common opinion that instead of buying the F-35 it was necessary to buy the F-16 and instead of buying the latest reinforcing toys, the overall state of the army should be improved. Because on the one hand we have the F-35 and the airspace is an S-200 weapon remembering the Vietnam War and what to do with the information provided from the latest F-35 commander on average 40-year-old T-72 or 50-year-old BWP-1

Edited March 8, 2020 by Tomasz

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/7/2020 at 12:38 AM, Rob Plant said:

I employ 250 people!

You??

Got room for one more?😂

[El Nikko + 2,145]

1 minute ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Got room for one more?😂

Make it two 🤣😂

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Got room for one more?😂

Douglas you’re a very bright guy with a large skill set and would be a good addition to most businesses IMO

However I can’t see you relocating to the UK unfortunately 😂

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Douglas you’re a very bright guy with a large skill set and would be a good addition to most businesses IMO

However I can’t see you relocating to the UK unfortunately 😂

Ah well, was worth a shot...😂

[Anthony Okrongly + 114]

On 3/7/2020 at 9:35 AM, Rob Plant said:

Yep no debt, no mortgage

we had a 10% downturn in the global recession and 15% downturn when oil hit $30 so a fairly resilient business.

i don’t want to be worshipped by anyone.

i just want to provide 250 families with an income that supports them. Is that wrong?

Anthony it was you that said I needed a job for some reason, I don’t need to work but I enjoy it. It looks like it’s actually you that needs one if you work 2 days a week, maybe you don’t need to, but man you must be bored!

 

It certainly isn't wrong. 

This proves that only the smartest people are on oilprice.com. I'll stop arguing. No I'm not bored. I paint, and when I get too bored I paint naked women. I milk my goats, make cheese, write articles (I get paid for my unsubstantiated opinions), etc. I'm not great at painting naked life models, but do I really need to be?

Edited March 9, 2020 by Anthony Okrongly

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

11 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

I'm not great at painting naked life models, but do I really need to be?

Practice, practice, practice.

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

34 minutes ago, Anthony Okrongly said:

It certainly isn't wrong. 

This proves that only the smartest people are on oilprice.com. I'll stop arguing. No I'm not bored. I paint, and when I get too bored I paint naked women. I milk my goats, make cheese, write articles (I get paid for my unsubstantiated opinions), etc. I'm not great at painting naked life models, but do I really need to be?

I think you are pretty good to be fair!

Sounds like a nice set up you've got

I cant paint for shit 😂

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/national-security-adviser-china-covered-up-outbreak-of-new-coronavirus_3268168.html

China Covered Up Outbreak of New Coronavirus, US National Security Adviser Says

BY ZACHARY STIEBER

 

March 11, 2020 Updated: March 11, 2020

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 3/8/2020 at 7:14 AM, Tomasz said:

Let me tell you a secret about Poland.

Poland is one of the few countries in NATO in which military pensions are paid out of the military budget. My father does not complain because these are very decent pensions consuming some 0,5 % of the total 2% spent on the army.

For this we have about 50,000 officers and non-commissioned officers and 70,000 privates so I think that should look a little strange composition of army for everyone.

I do not want it to turn out that living in Poland I am anti-Polish but the equipment at the disposal of the Polish army is very often  the subject of mockery in all Polish forums.

50-year-old BWP-1 combat vehicles, 50-year-old submarines, 40-year-old T-72M tanks (not to be confused with the Russian T-72B), 40-year-old Su-22 planes, anti aicraftaft  kits S-200 Newa successful in fighting the Americas dating back to the Vietnam War.

In general, the combat condition of the Polish army is rather  generally weak.

Basically, the Polish army will spend most money on salaries and pensions and on F-35 style toys.

I do not mean that Poland should not have an F-35 but is not doing very well with the F-16 and Mig-29 so far, which is also the subject of press articles.

Recently, the press panicked, as it turned out that the MIg-29 are out of service and by the not-very-careful service of those already in a fight 6 out of 48 F-16..

It is common opinion that instead of buying the F-35 it was necessary to buy the F-16 and instead of buying the latest reinforcing toys, the overall state of the army should be improved. Because on the one hand we have the F-35 and the airspace is an S-200 weapon remembering the Vietnam War and what to do with the information provided from the latest F-35 commander on average 40-year-old T-72 or 50-year-old BWP-1

Interesting information. I'd always assumed the US military pensions were part of our military budget as well. Turns out they're not. I know a retired major, commander and a naval captain who have been making north of $60k per year for the past 35 years, and only the captain (my uncle) served more than 25 years. Not only have they made more in retirement than they ever made while active, they're making more per year than they ever made while active. 

As for the military equipment, it's a historical fact that Poland had the greatest Calvary in the world, by far, right up until the German blitzed them in WWII. Brave soldiers (and even braver horses) charged the German tanks, until they were no more. 

[specinho + 440]

On 3/4/2020 at 2:40 PM, frankfurter said:

  US troops pushed Japan troops out of China?  prove this please. 

the story went like this: Japan tried to build empire state over the East and its compatriot somewhere else. They challenged, bombed and destroyed even US military base in Hawaii. US retaliated. Japanese military bases were destroyed by the previously unheard of nuclear bombs. Repercussion from the radiating heat waves flushed Jap out from all other locations............. Just an impression, how powerful a nuclear bomb is......... at the right place.......

On 3/5/2020 at 2:59 PM, Michael Jones said:

i dont know why but how come HK hasnt had major outbreaks like other places?  Were they more prepared expecting it to happen and took precautions (learnt from SARs)? Many more people went back and fore to the PRC after the outbreak than any other country in the world.  not one or two plane loads a day to milan

the virus might have been completely toasted during the few months long riots, filled with fire, water, tear gas etc.............. and may be stuck on the ground by thick and massive amount of saliva.......... from shouting, cheering etc.....

[PTakacs + 59]

On 3/6/2020 at 4:39 PM, 0R0 said:

Yes, there are shenanigans, Italy is by far the worst extend and pretender. You need only make one payment over 9 mo to have your loan in good standing. 

US is orders of magnitude better shape. The core remaining problem is a book of jumbo loans from California's housing bubble that is still being prevented from foreclosure liquidation and recognition of losses. About 15 mil houses with varying degrees of negative amortization. As the loans keep rising relative to the value of the underlying property, the banks have no motive to get them liquidated. It is extremely concentrated, the nominal amount is $6 Tril, embedded loss is about $1-2T. About 5-10% of GDP ultimately if they get foreclosed.

China's implied NPLs from Debt/GDP stats, particularly corp SOE and SIV. financial and households is 25-30%. According to Charlene Chu's (formerly Fitch head of China credit ratings) estimates based on global historical credit statistics. In the SOE sector and SIVs it ranges around 80% by my attempts to estimate it from official stats most of the years since 2012, except 2016-17 and 2013-4. If you include off the books numbers then it looks better as NPLs in the private sector were in the ~17% level (from memory) before the coronavirus. I don't know how bad it is now, but I assume it would be at least 30% for now and concentrated in WMP and AMP not associated with banks, meaning that it would be hard to rescue that sector with bank policy. 

The big illusion in China's housing sector is the values, as in Hong Kong and in 1989 Japan, leverage is 50% by regulatory cap. But family and street level finance is rampant  and can't be captured in the stats. By price to income, the problem is about 5X higher than the peak of the US housing market in CA. It is as bad as Japan's housing bubble. The losses in Japan were 80% in real estate. The same is due in HK and China. That is about a 60% loss potential on bank's mortgage books - which is still less than corp and provincial SIV debt losses.. And most substantially, a huge knock off of China's large soon to be retired boomer generation who have most of their assets in unaffordable real estate. 

I am assuming that China is going to try and dilute this credit with monetary inflation, which would be forgiven by their people and general int'l markets as prices, particularly of food, rise sharply. The virus opportunity is for having good PR cover as they induce an inflationary monetary impulse so that they don't get a social backlash. 

Let me slightly counter your real estate argument by stating that there are, IMO, three factors that can keep the real estate price high in the foreseeable future: (1) the large population base which is not too aging yet; (2) the migrate-to-cities drive where everyone wants to be in the cities; and (3) zero property tax. I have always argued that if the Chinese gov really wants to lower real estate price, just implement property tax. But nah, they will never do that. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

3 hours ago, PTakacs said:

Let me slightly counter your real estate argument by stating that there are, IMO, three factors that can keep the real estate price high in the foreseeable future: (1) the large population base which is not too aging yet; (2) the migrate-to-cities drive where everyone wants to be in the cities; and (3) zero property tax. I have always argued that if the Chinese gov really wants to lower real estate price, just implement property tax. But nah, they will never do that. 

I always take that suggestion seriously, as the Gave brothers are serious people and make that argument all the time. 

The issue is that of the 520 million rural folks left. 360 million already live in the cities, 160 million as migrants in factory dorms, and the other half as permanent migrant city dwellers with their own or rented property. When you go to rural areas it is kids and grandparents. That leaves 160 million kids and old folks who are going nowhere. Any further migration out of the rural areas will result in the loss of food production, as Chinese agriculture is remarkably labor intensive and its productivity has not improved in 6 years. It will get worse, as the aquifers are heavily contaminated and water needs to be purified before it can be used for irrigation in ever more locations . 

Finally, the price to income of Chinese city real estate is 5 times higher than in the US at the height of the real estate bubble. It is not far from the peak values of the Japanese home price to income ratios in 1989, before they crashed about 80%. The Chinese hunger for real estate speculation has spiked global central city real estate prices into the absurd.