CCP holding back virus data . . . . . . Spanish Flu 1918 MUTATED, Came in 3 waves, Lasted 14 months and killed upward 5% World population

[Wombat + 1,028]

11 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope.  Unless you have actually lived in the South China Sea region, then I would say you are inventing a false narrative.

I lived in Malaysia (part of the South China Sea region) for almost 2 decades.  China is a huge bully to its neighbors there, but the smaller countries must kowtow meekly to China as their largest trade partner, and no country in the South China Sea region can go head to head against China's military.

China is way out of bounds with its 9 dash line land (sea) grab.  CCP (China Communist Party) is living up to its name, as Communists, seizing economic control over other countries.  CCP's Communist expansionist compulsions may very well be the biggest existential threat there is to Asia. 

China's One Belt One Road is a predatory debt trap, pure and simple.  Designed to extract natural resources from other countries as impossible loans are defaulted on.

9 Dash Line is a predatory economic invasion into the economic sea zones of other countries.  Parasitic feeding off of the sovereign economic zones of other countries.

CCP is a menace.  CCP is a parasite.  You don't like my words?  Well, then you might be part of the problem if you support and glorify the China Communist Party.

I would add that CCP fast becoming an existential threat to entire world, including the US. We gonna need one helluva coalition to oppose them, hence the Quadrilateral defence talks between US, Australia, India and Japan?

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

That sounds like wishful thinking to me! Let me assure you, the Pentagon and any serious foreign policy analyst does not share your optimism. I have heard many reasons as to why China will fail over the years, all of which have turned out to be wrong. They are well on their way to global domination and the US is set to become a very distant 2nd. Indeed, India may displace the US as 2nd within 25 years.

I think China has the makings of a great power in a bipolar world some day in the future. IF it isn't led by the CCP. The pervasive presence of the CCP aparat within all organizations means that your company's innermost proprietary secrets from designs to sourcing through production techniques, QA practices, and key personnel. and fresh discoveries are available to anyone with "guanxi" in the party or the checkbook to get them. Second issue is a clear rule of law and functional process not geared to favor the CCP or its particular high ranking member's interests. That to enable reparations and a halt when IP or proprietary information are stolen, bids are rigged, contracts broken. That means that there is no possible way for China to become a high margin economy. Without this, China remains a medium income country. So the precondition for China's continued ascendance is removal of the CCP aparat from all organizations. Second is to allow criticism of policy and leadership so that crucial information is available to the decision makers and the people at large. That way, reasonable decisions can be reached. 

Having no competitive advantage from proprietary items like original R&D, design, process optimization, QA practices etc. means that you can never obtain more than the cost of capital materials and labor for your margin. Thus "going up the value chain" in the CCP manner yields squishing of margins in the industry globally, not a hike up the income ladder for China. Those were THE things that allowed Britain to make its puny island into the largest actual empire ever (the US is a virtual empire and does not possess territories in which it is present militarily).  Those practices provided the income for Britain to  control a population over 10 times its own. It would all have been worthless on CCP terms, and would not pay its way. 

If China were able to feed itself and power itself then it would have a cushion against these kinds of errors. But it can't. That is unlike the US in a N. American context. 

By looking at China's ability to invest profitably, you find that it just isn't happening any longer. Not for a decade. What the lack of profitability means is that investment is producing less output than its inputs cost. How do you get the margin from which you pay for your military expenditure? Buy favors? Outbid others for resources? Why would you take over control of another country's resources if you can't make a profit out of it? 

So in the charts below we see visible default rates in China (labeled "chart 12") and how they popped up when the shadow banking credit wave was stomped down by China regulators (Third chart with shadow and official debt to GDP) and we can see that China industrial profits were crimped for all but the short 2016-2017 shadow credit boom in the second chart, which is incongruent with  the chart next to it. How can you increase your debt and keep profits stagnant for most of a decade while defaults remain low, obviously you extend credit to non performing credits and pretend they paid their interest, a benefit if you are an SOE. We all know how SOEs are bastions of sharp capital allocation  and "productivity" of labor, don't we. (Note to frankfurter - that was sarcasm) 

Finally, we see in the last chart that total factor productivity has collapsed to recessionary levels even with the much gussied up official numbers. Yet there is no apparent recession in the numbers,Despite much makeup and lipstick on the pig economy, the output is not increasing relative to investment (credit growth). If you use Prof. Xiang's estimates for 2018 and 2019 then the TFP figures look as bad as the 1990s bank crisis and bailout period. Then China had an inflation outburst and a sharp drop in the currency. 

 

 

To put it in other terms, China has shifted from growing real economic values before 2011 to propping up the economy with "great leap forward" types of low quality growth where you invest allot and get little. Numbers grow with little benefit but for the increasing pay checks, which are spent on investments in empty housing (pre virus PMI for construction was over 60 - very robust). 

This does not make for the basis of an empire or hegemony. 

It is like the BRI predatory lending and inflated cost projects  that China is discovering does buy you control and assets but loses you money that you find hard to replace, particularly when a large portion of  it is forex. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

9 minutes ago, Wombat said:

I would add that CCP fast becoming an existential threat to entire world, including the US. We gonna need one helluva coalition to oppose them, hence the Quadrilateral defence talks between US, Australia, India and Japan?

We only need to have an economic pact to curtail them, and back it up with such a pact as you are suggesting to cover it militarily. Has been in the works for years, Japan is onboard and I presume Aussies as well. India is still trying to get a deal out of it. But Europe has to join in it and all of us have to be able to accept some of the NIMBY kind of industrial activity that China took over to be rebuilt in the West. Greens would hit the roof, but the cost of having all this basic supply sole sourced from China puts the whole world into a difficult bind. 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Only a moron, or a particular brand of sausage would claim the USA is sitting with an army in the Golan Heights. You'd think a person making such an abject mistake would slink away in humiliation. I certainly hope he gets paid extra to reng dao lian. 

When the US was ordered out of the Philippines, we left. The citizens immediately looted the bases, leaving a wreck behind. The impact to their economy was devastating with all those dollars no longer being spent on rent and bar girls.  

Given how we were treated, Trump did exactly the right thing. The Philippines would be even bigger morons to invite China to build military bases there, the invasion would be half over before it started. They're already having trouble with China over fishing and offshore oil. China's case for "owning" that water is even more laughable than @frankfurter's ridiculous rambling posts here. He's a good little wumaodang, I'll give him that. 

Frankfurter doesn't get that the US does not "occupy" the way China does. Its presence in air bases and navy ports is in common interest with the allies hosing them. China does not understand cooperative relationships apparently. I don't think China has any real ones. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 3/3/2020 at 2:00 PM, 0R0 said:

China could always supply them, as could Russia, the sanctions don't cover medical equipment, they cover financing of them. Since China and Russia have no problem trading munitions for oil with Iran, they should have no problem trading medical supplies too. The current circumstance is entirely the result of Iran's preferences for arms and funding of Hezbollah and Syria. The sanctions have no effect on that. 

Compared to the mad Mullah's and Jihadi's, I actually do think the Yanks are god-like creatures that deserve to decide who lives and who dies! Saved us from the Japanese and most Aussies will be forever grateful. (That is in response to Frankfurter but I ignore him so can't speak to him direct. His friggin comments still appear when someone responds to him as u did).

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Wombat said:

I would add that CCP fast becoming an existential threat to entire world, including the US. We gonna need one helluva coalition to oppose them, hence the Quadrilateral defence talks between US, Australia, India and Japan?

Yet our allies want to ‘invite’ Huawei into the 5 Eyes program by incorporating their software/hardware...unbelievable!

[Wombat + 1,028]

19 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

The US pays cold hard cash for rental of the lands where those bases are. Places like the Philippines, who demanded the US abandon Clark Airbase got their wish, then came begging for us to return. The Chinese on the other hand aren't invited anywhere, with the possible exception of Iran, and look at the wonderful disease the Chinese were happy to share with their friends there. Even Iran isn't stupid enough to allow the Chinese to have an army on their soil. The US has abandoned bases all over the world and as @0R0 aptly demonstrated above has done more to deliver freedom to other countries than every other power combined. Meanwhile Pax Americana is a real thing. Even the tremendous trade advantage China has enjoyed these past decades since they bribed Clinton is only possible because the US, from all those bases you're complaining about, keeps the sea lanes clear for those container ships to freely ply their trade. 

As for fish, China has destroyed their entire country, now it gets to create ecological havoc on the rest of the world, starting in Asia? 

I would love to here how Frankfurter justifies the recent Chinese mapping of the seabed off the coast of Western Australia in order to help find our subs? Maybe he thinks the Aboriginals are descendants of the Chinese?!?

[frankfurter + 562]

18 hours ago, 0R0 said:

US aid and bombing of Japan and eliciting its surrender brought China's independence. It own fighting didn't result in getting the Japanese out.

Yes, US forces were involved in fighting against Chinese communist and other forces in the 1920s. But aligned with China during WWII. Airlifting military supplies after the "Burma Road" was captured by Japan. 

China was awarded its official recognition in its current border in the 1943 Cairo Conference and got independence as a Big Four Allied power in 1945 with a permanent seat on the UN Security council. But throughout WWII China was occupied by Japan, and did not dislodge the Japanese on its own.  They simply left after the general surrender. Leaving the Kwomintang and the Communists and Soviets to fight it out. China didn't win the battle. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War

Thank you for clarifying [ie admitting], the US did not fight Japan for and on behalf of China. 

But you are false to say the US aligned with 'China'.  The US aligned with the Kuomingtang, which the US hoped would be the puppet government. ChiangKaiChek was responsible for the loss of Mongolia and millions of murdered non-combatant citizens. Despite US declarations, the KMT never had the consent of the majority and was never the government of the people. (sound familiar today with US and Venezuela, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc?)  True, after the US defeated Japan, the US kept troops away from China, but continued to support the KMT with cash and equipment. The US did not simply leave the KMT, Communists, Soviets alone to their own devices.  The Chinese descended into civil war: with peasants against the US-funded KMT. Despite US support, the peasants won and drove out all belligerents and foreigners.  The US turned vindictive and stopped human aid to the Chinese, prevented the China Yuen from being traded to purchase goods, embargoed China for oil imports, and placed economic sanctions. 

To say the USA is responsible for China's independence is simply false. 

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

11 hours ago, El Nikko said:

I might get shouted at for saying this but flu season is almost over, the spread of Coronavirus is going to slow right down in the coming weeks as we enter spring if it's similar to the spread of flu which I would imagine it will be.

I know it's 'worse' than flu, it spreads quicker, there's no vacine to protect people who are more vulnerable to pulminary disease, and it does seem to kill at a higher rate but so far there's still only 40-50k uncured cases (if we believe the figures) and less than 15k known cases outside of China half of which are in Korea.

I also read it dies in temps over 26/27 degrees so the likelyhood of a massive epidemic in Africa seems unlikely...again if we are to believe that is true.

I personally think the panic will be over in 3-4 weeks.

Crap. It is spreading in Australia (our summer), not to mention Singapore (in the tropics). Won't be over for several years.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Marmite should kill it!!!😂

[Wombat + 1,028]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I think China has the makings of a great power in a bipolar world some day in the future. IF it isn't led by the CCP. The pervasive presence of the CCP aparat within all organizations means that your company's innermost proprietary secrets from designs to sourcing through production techniques, QA practices, and key personnel. and fresh discoveries are available to anyone with "guanxi" in the party or the checkbook to get them. Second issue is a clear rule of law and functional process not geared to favor the CCP or its particular high ranking member's interests. That to enable reparations and a halt when IP or proprietary information are stolen, bids are rigged, contracts broken. That means that there is no possible way for China to become a high margin economy. Without this, China remains a medium income country. So the precondition for China's continued ascendance is removal of the CCP aparat from all organizations. Second is to allow criticism of policy and leadership so that crucial information is available to the decision makers and the people at large. That way, reasonable decisions can be reached. 

Having no competitive advantage from proprietary items like original R&D, design, process optimization, QA practices etc. means that you can never obtain more than the cost of capital materials and labor for your margin. Thus "going up the value chain" in the CCP manner yields squishing of margins in the industry globally, not a hike up the income ladder for China. Those were THE things that allowed Britain to make its puny island into the largest actual empire ever (the US is a virtual empire and does not possess territories in which it is present militarily).  Those practices provided the income for Britain to  control a population over 10 times its own. It would all have been worthless on CCP terms, and would not pay its way. 

If China were able to feed itself and power itself then it would have a cushion against these kinds of errors. But it can't. That is unlike the US in a N. American context. 

By looking at China's ability to invest profitably, you find that it just isn't happening any longer. Not for a decade. What the lack of profitability means is that investment is producing less output than its inputs cost. How do you get the margin from which you pay for your military expenditure? Buy favors? Outbid others for resources? Why would you take over control of another country's resources if you can't make a profit out of it? 

So in the charts below we see visible default rates in China (labeled "chart 12") and how they popped up when the shadow banking credit wave was stomped down by China regulators (Third chart with shadow and official debt to GDP) and we can see that China industrial profits were crimped for all but the short 2016-2017 shadow credit boom in the second chart, which is incongruent with  the chart next to it. How can you increase your debt and keep profits stagnant for most of a decade while defaults remain low, obviously you extend credit to non performing credits and pretend they paid their interest, a benefit if you are an SOE. We all know how SOEs are bastions of sharp capital allocation  and "productivity" of labor, don't we. (Note to frankfurter - that was sarcasm) 

Finally, we see in the last chart that total factor productivity has collapsed to recessionary levels even with the much gussied up official numbers. Yet there is no apparent recession in the numbers,Despite much makeup and lipstick on the pig economy, the output is not increasing relative to investment (credit growth). If you use Prof. Xiang's estimates for 2018 and 2019 then the TFP figures look as bad as the 1990s bank crisis and bailout period. Then China had an inflation outburst and a sharp drop in the currency. 

 

 

To put it in other terms, China has shifted from growing real economic values before 2011 to propping up the economy with "great leap forward" types of low quality growth where you invest allot and get little. Numbers grow with little benefit but for the increasing pay checks, which are spent on investments in empty housing (pre virus PMI for construction was over 60 - very robust). 

This does not make for the basis of an empire or hegemony. 

It is like the BRI predatory lending and inflated cost projects  that China is discovering does buy you control and assets but loses you money that you find hard to replace, particularly when a large portion of  it is forex. 

I wish it were as simple as that, but if u replace SOE with US public debt, u get the same graph? Indeed, similar with US corporate debt? Here in Australia, it is household debt. Pretty much every country is in trouble.

[Wombat + 1,028]

21 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Yet our allies want to ‘invite’ Huawei into the 5 Eyes program by incorporating their software/hardware...unbelievable!

Not Australia, we banned them before you did. In fact, you got the idea from us. Of course, the Chinese have punished us by reducing the amount of coal they buy from us, but we don't care

[Wombat + 1,028]

11 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Marmite should kill it!!!😂

It's Vegemite Doug! Vegemite is fermented Yeast. Marmite is British (made from vegetables), and not quite as strong

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

42 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Not Australia, we banned them before you did. In fact, you got the idea from us. Of course, the Chinese have punished us by reducing the amount of coal they buy from us, but we don't care

Perhaps, but if a single entity within the 5 Eyes allows Huawei in, the whole program is compromised...

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

41 minutes ago, Wombat said:

It's Vegemite Doug! Vegemite is fermented Yeast. Marmite is British (made from vegetables), and not quite as strong

Oops! I stand corrected. That said, the corona virus, and most humans, would RUN from Vegemite! That stuff is NASTY!😂

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

I wish it were as simple as that, but if u replace SOE with US public debt, u get the same graph? Indeed, similar with US corporate debt? Here in Australia, it is household debt. Pretty much every country is in trouble.

Not even in the same solar system. China's system went beyond what any have done before. Only financial centers like Austria have higher leverage, but their external assets and external liabilities are the vast bulk of it. China is leveraged internally with weakly performing assets. The only clear bit of balance sheet is the central government, which still has 40% of GDP in balance sheet space before they reach trouble. But that is not the issue in economic and financial terms. What matters is the overall Total Debt to GDP of all sectors and particularly of the corporate sector and household sector that matter. The corporate sector is over leveraged and only grow profits in short spurts of a year or two. 

The financial sector is over leveraged spectacularly due to the WMPs and trust products they sell to the public and the main bank's 150 Trillion Yuan in holdings of each other's bonds on an M2 of 200 T Yuan. While the PBoC has direct numbers from asset management products sold by banks, Other non bank institutions like finance companies and insurers (particularly HNA who's CEO was assassinated by his minders/bodyguards). The debts they took on and what they financed is not always registered with the regulators. But the 60% of the economy that is private has been financed that way. The official bank and bond finance are about 90% SOEs and provincial and municipal SIVs. I think the stat is that the SOEs do 20% of China's GDP and 80% of the corporate debt on the books. 

Household debt in China has exceeded US household debt already but their incomes are lower by quite a large margin.

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, frankfurter said:

Thank you for clarifying [ie admitting], the US did not fight Japan for and on behalf of China. 

But you are false to say the US aligned with 'China'.  The US aligned with the Kuomingtang, which the US hoped would be the puppet government. ChiangKaiChek was responsible for the loss of Mongolia and millions of murdered non-combatant citizens. Despite US declarations, the KMT never had the consent of the majority and was never the government of the people. (sound familiar today with US and Venezuela, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc?)  True, after the US defeated Japan, the US kept troops away from China, but continued to support the KMT with cash and equipment. The US did not simply leave the KMT, Communists, Soviets alone to their own devices.  The Chinese descended into civil war: with peasants against the US-funded KMT. Despite US support, the peasants won and drove out all belligerents and foreigners.  The US turned vindictive and stopped human aid to the Chinese, prevented the China Yuen from being traded to purchase goods, embargoed China for oil imports, and placed economic sanctions. 

To say the USA is responsible for China's independence is simply false. 

 

The US cut a deal with the Japanese to stand against the Soviets and the Communists in China. The US could have insisted that Japan hold its ground in China under a new republic form of government. But they got them out. 

The KMT was the US and Western recognized China government. The Communists had to conquer the country with cooperation of the warlords before they could claim to represent it as the defacto rulers. Just as the Mongols had done. The KMT had an elected representative legislative body. Whatever your misgivings about it. Yes. The Chinese communists were enemies of the United States and the Western world at large, having occupied China on  the Soviet's behalf just as the communist party of Poland occupied the country of Poland whether the Poles wanted it or not. 

China is still an occupied country ruled by a rogue faction of the defunct Soviet communist empire. The CCP are the modern Mongols. 

Yes, the US is indeed responsible for China's independence. The US (and allies) defined its borders and recognized it while it was under Japanese rule. The US folded the Japanese occupation after Japan's defeat. You can not criticize the US opposing the communists in the first hot war of the many proxy wars between the Soviet communists and the West. The CCP is the exact opposite of an independent China. They are the external occupying force the Soviets helped install there. 

The "peasants" were in the Long March, but it was the communists' alliances with local warlords to give them the landed gentry's property that got them fighting and defeating the KMT.  

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Just now, 0R0 said:

The US cut a deal with the Japanese to stand against the Soviets and the Communists in China. The US could have insisted that Japan hold its ground in China under a new republic form of government. But they got them out. 

The KMT was the US and Western recognized China government. The Communists had to conquer the country with cooperation of the warlords before they could claim to represent it as the defacto rulers. Just as the Mongols had done. The KMT had an elected representative legislative body. Whatever your misgivings about it. Yes. The Chinese communists were enemies of the United States and the Western world at large, having occupied China on  the Soviet's behalf just as the communist party of Poland occupied the country of Poland whether the Poles wanted it or not. 

China is still an occupied country ruled by a rogue faction of the defunct Soviet communist empire. The CCP are the modern Mongols. 

Yes, the US is indeed responsible for China's independence. The US (and allies) defined its borders and recognized it while it was under Japanese rule. The US folded the Japanese occupation after Japan's defeat. You can not criticize the US opposing the communists in the first hot war of the many proxy wars between the Soviet communists and the West. The CCP is the exact opposite of an independent China. They are the external occupying force the Soviets helped install there. 

The "peasants" were in the Long March, but it was the communists' alliances with local warlords to give them the landed gentry's property that got them fighting and defeating the KMT.  

The CCP didn't fight the Japanese, the KMT did

Chairman Mao even thanked the Japanese for making his job easier. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

If you study history, during WW2 the CCP and the KMT both spent an inordinate amount of time fighting each other and hoarding weapons/ammunition for the civil war they knew was coming once the Japanese were defeated. If they had joined forces and fought the Japanese, their common enemy, history would have been different.

It is also true that the Russians, who had never really been in combat with the Japanese, in China or anywhere else, crossed into Japanese controlled China,AFTER Germany had been defeated, in a bold attempt to gain territory in China, before the inevitable Japanese surrender.

[Marcin2 + 726]

17 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

@Marcin2 and @frankfurter
 

Are you gentlemen suggesting and supporting the idea that the US should remove itself from ALL it’s overseas endeavors? It is apparent that you both disagree with the US foreign policy, so I am assuming that you support the US following an isolationist agenda, is this correct?

If you do not suggest a total exit from the world stage by the Americans, which policies or programs would you like to remain in place?

This is not an attempt to start an argument, I am interested in your views regarding the above.

Douglas you know where i stand but short repetition:

US is in demise caused mainly by domestic political problems that cause economic problems. I do nit like this and will write about it extensively because it changes security situation in Europe.

China is on The rise and Will reach developed country status in 20 years. It is 4 times more Chinese than Americans so China is going to be stronger than US by large margin.

Above situation further changes negatively security situation in Europe cause US is concentrated on hegemony conflict with China

I like present situation with US hegemony but I think it is gonna change.

I do not like Chinese rise because it makes Russia stronger.

But currently I am more concerned how bad conflict can get than Chinese rise.

[Marcin2 + 726]

I do perceive CCP negatively but not that negatively as Americans do.

I think that US actions and generally foreign policies are just  very large country policies , services mainly US interests and that China starts to act the same US way and that they are just building their sphere of influence that overlaps US sphere of influence. Chinese sphere of influence is going to be East, North and Central Asia and US mainly Americas and Australia.

Europe, rest of Asia, Middle East , Africa to some extent independent .

I think that both US and Chinese policies are mainly about hydrocarbons and spheres of influence economic ( China) and security ( US)

I think that Chinese are not more stupid than Americans, 4 times more of them and thus they will close technology gap. I think that current embargo policies would be effective 10 years ago but not now and US is also harmed by them, many people in the industry observe dual supply chains created 1 for US ( small ) and 2 for the rest of the world ( big). Companies try to get rid of US tech components where they can to decrease current and future embargo risks. 
I do not believe in regime change in China in near future like 30-40 years. Later China would be stronger, much stronger than US so becoming nominal democracy and aristocracy in fact would be even more dangerous for US as democracies are more effective than autocratic forms for developed countries.

I am concerned with US education and that culture in China is more education concentrated.

I am concerned with US migration policies do not understand this chaos they same as recent bad EU migration policies.

I do not like pro American bias at this forum although understand this.

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Marcin2
Typo

[Wolfgang Horn + 7]

So great you pointed at the spanish flu. We have to learn from history to react in a proper way today.

Indeed, 5% of the world population was killed - and this model is actual today as well for us.  

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

 

“China is on The rise and Will reach developed country status in 20 years. It is 4 times more Chinese than American so China is going to be stronger than US by  large  margin.”

Historically, the size of your population does not have a bearing on your place on the world stage or your power globally.

Furthermore, if you China has four times the population, then they have four times the number of people to feed and clothe, four times the amount pf people to provide jobs for, and four times the number of people to provide a ‘safety net’ for as well as four times the number of people to take care of once they are perceived as ‘too old to work’.

This is a drain on the coffers of government, which will only get worse with an aging population. 

 

[Michael Jones + 34]

i live in hong kong. BP 24 years, HK family office since 2010.  Interesting although first case was 23rd January but has now only reached 104 infected now. NB the border to the mainland was kept open long after many other countries put restrictions on people from the PRC and on a typical monday morning in jan 70,000 people crossed from the mainland.  There were 200,000 mainlanders came to HK from China for CNY. Why no outbreaks like Korea or Italy?  Im a Brit. Everyone wears a mask and washes their hands so I am too.  There are disinfectant bottles by lifts and entrance to apartment blocks.  This maybe what everyone else should be doing. It has worked so far.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Michael Jones

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

27 minutes ago, Wolfgang Horn said:

So great you pointed at the spanish flu. We have to learn from history to react in a proper way today.

Indeed, 5% of the world population was killed - and this model is actual today as well for us.  

How can any model of the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 be relevant to the corona virus now? Medicine has evolved quantum leaps since 1918 and so has the ability to travel either domestically or internationally. Furthermore, the planet is much more crowded now than it was then, roughly by a factor of 8.