Blogs

Permian – update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 19,523 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards December oil production came in at around 3.1 million bo/d (after revisions), 1 million bo/d higher than a year earlier. Close to 4,400 horizontal wells were completed in 2018, 23% more than in 2017. As is represented by the blue area in December 2018, about 2/3rd of December production came from wells that began production in 2018. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you’ll find that natural gas production increased to almost 10 Bcf/d, which is even more than is produced in the Haynesville Basin. The final tab shows the production histories of the 5 largest operators of horizontal wells. They all have strongly increased output in the past 2 years, and are at or near production highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The wells that started in Q2 2016 (dark brown curve) have now recovered the most oil, with just over 200,000 barrels of oil produced on average. Newer wells are on a slightly higher trajectory. In the 2nd tab you’ll find all counties in the Permian, ranked by cumulative production, from horizontal wells since 2008. Reeves has taken over the 1st spot from Lea County, with 340 million barrels of oil cumulative production. Close to half a million barrels of oil per day were produced in Reeves in December. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by an update on all covered states in the US early next week.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2I0WJhy   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Utah – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 424 horizontal wells in Utah that started production since 2008, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard We’ve just included Utah in our coverage of horizontal drilling in the U.S., bringing the total number of covered states to 12. These 12 states are responsible for 99% of recent horizontal drilling activity based on the Baker Hughes horizontal rig count. Although the absolute amount of oil & gas produced in this state is relatively is low, compared with the other basins you’ve read about here, the growth rate has been pretty high in the past 2 years. Oil production from horizontal wells was 33 thousand bo/d in January this year, while it was only 14 thousand bo/d 2 years earlier. Activity during this period has been concentrated in Duchesne and Uintah County, heart of the Uinta Basin.   This growth coincided with a major increase in well productivity, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells recover on average 130 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production, more than double the amount from wells that began production before 2016.   The final tab shows the top operators in this state. Newfield, the leading operator, has just been acquired by Calgary-based Encana. It has always been the most active player here. The number 2, Crescent Point Energy, showed a big increase in production in 2017. It also has its HQ in Calgary.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here the major increase in well productivity since 2016 is visible. Newer wells are on a path to recover about 300 thousand barrels of oil before hitting a level of 10 bo/d. Of course there are also major differences here between the operators. If you only select Axia Energy, using the “Operator” selection, you’ll find that its wells are far above average.   It therefore clearly ranks as the best performing operator (see the 4th tab, ‘Productivity ranking’), as measured for example by the average amount of oil recovered in the first year. But the best 2 wells so far are operated by Wesco Operating, as you’ll find in the 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’). They recovered each close to 1 million barrels of oil so far. We will from now on include Utah in the monthly US post.   Next week we plan to have updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Wnnelk   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,747 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Gas production in Pennsylvania started this year at a record 18.3 Bcf/d, with a y-o-y growth of 2.5 Bcf/d (16%).   In 2018 10% more wells began production compared with the year before (828 vs. 748) and, as you can find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, they peaked at a 16% higher rate (11,900 Mcf/d vs. 10,300 Mcf/d), on average.   The 2 largest natural gas producers in the state, Cabot and Chesapeake, started the year both with a new production record (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter. The 195 horizontal wells that came online in Q4 2018 (blue curve at the top) peaked at the highest rate ever, 13,700 Mcf/d, which was also double the peak rate of the wells that started 5 years earlier (Q4 2013). Those 372 wells have now recovered 4.6 Bcf of natural gas each and they are still flowing at 1,200 Mcf/d, on average.   In the 4th tab operators are ranked by their average well productivity, as measured by the cumulative gas production in the first year on production. Cabot, which is active in a very prolific area in Susquehanna County, comes out on top, with an average result of 3.3 Bcf in the first year. If you only select 2017 (using the “first production year” selection), this result further increases to almost 5 Bcf.   Later this week we plan to have a post on a new state! Next week, we’ll show again the latest production data for the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HT6oa6   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Gazprom to supply 200 BCM of gas/year to Europe in 2019

Minsk, Belarus. March 22, 2019 Gazprom is planning to maintain its gas supply to Europe at the level of 200 billion cubic meters (BCM) of gas per year in 2019, A. Kruglov, Gazprom board deputy chairman, told reporters on March 22, 2019. Gazprom reached volumes of export supplies above 200 BCM of gas per year for the first time in 2018 and now intends to at least maintain this level. On February 26, 2019, on Investor Day in Hong Kong, Ye. Burmistrova, director of Gazprom Export, stated confidently that Gazprom could maintain exports to Europe at 200 BCM/year for a number of years to come. It is interesting that A. Kruglov assumed that gas exports to non-CIS countries could grow by about 20%, to more than 242 BCM/year by 2025, taking into account the achievement of the planned volumes of gas supplies to China at 38 BCM/year via the Power of Siberia-1 gas pipeline. The key issue is the gas supply situation in 2019, as the new export gas pipelines Nord Stream 2, the Turk Stream, and Power of Siberia-1 are to be launched at the end of 2019. In this connection, reaching a level of more than 200 BCM/year in 2020 is not a problem, but one cannot be sure about Gazprom’s ability to reach this level in 2019, especially with the warm weather in Europe leading to a reduction in gas demand. In the period from January 1 to March 15, 2019, Gazprom has reduced its gas supply to non-CIS countries by 8.2% when compared to the gas supply volumes for these 2.5 months in 2018, to 40.8 BCM. In 2018, Gazprom increased gas exports to non-CIS countries by 3.8% compared with its 2017 exports, to 201.8 BCM. The company was planning to increase this to 204.5BCM/year (the maximum annual contract volume for all export contracts to non-CIS countries), but the export volumes were lower than expected. Gazprom increased its gas production by 5.7% in 2018 when compared to 2017, to 497.6 BCM. In 2019, the Russian gas giant is planning to produce 495.1 BCM of gas, which is a 0.5% decrease from 2018. This is traditional for Gazprom, which usually adheres to a conservative and self-restrained approach when making production forecasts at the beginning of each year. During the year, the forecast for production volumes may be adjusted depending on the market situation.

North Dakota – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,469 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard January oil production in North Dakota was unchanged from the month before, at 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. In January, which is typically a slow month, just 85 wells started production. The growth in natural gas production has been steeper in the past few years. Compared with January 2015, natural gas production rose by 88%, versus 18% for oil. The reason for this is that almost all wells experience a rising gas oil ratio, and even stronger for newer wells.   In the ‘Well quality’ tab, you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells. After several years of improving initial well productivity, the 2018 vintage eked out another small gain.   All 5 leading operators in North Dakota started the year at a higher production level than a year earlier (“Top operators”). Continental Resources was the first operator in the history of the state to reach 200 thousand barrels of oil production capacity in January. It doubled its output in the past 2 years. From our analytics service (Professional), we can see how Continental Resources has changed its completion practices in the last couple of years:   In this dashboard we can see that Continental Resources did not change the length of its laterals by much since 2013 (yellow curve), but it did almost quadruple the amount of proppant used, from 3 million pounds per completion in 2013, to 12 million pounds in 2017/2018 (shown by the pink curve). The impact that this had on the amount of oil recovered in the first 12 months is shown in the plots on the right side; the bottom plot shows the same information, but now normalized by lateral length (1,000 feet).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The almost 1,800 horizontal wells that started in 2012 have now recovered just above 200 thousand barrels, and are now producing at a rate of 40 bo/d, on average. The 971 wells that started 5 years later (2017) are, with an average recovery of 175 thousand barrels of oil after 14 months on production, not far behind, and they are still operating at a rate of 227 bo/d.   Early next week we will have an update on gas production in Pennsylvania, which just released January production data as well (already available in our subscription services!). It just set another record at over 18 Bcf/d.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ueHidA   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Russia’s Gazprombank leaves Venezuela. Rosneft still stays.

Russia’s Gazprombank leaves Venezuela. Rosneft still stays.   Moscow, Russia. March 15, 2019 Gazprombank is minimizing risks in Venezuela. The bank has sold a 17% stake in GPB Global Resources which, in turn, owns 40% of Petrozamora, a joint venture with PDVSA, Reuters stated on March 14. The bank has confirmed the fact of leaving the joint venture without specifying any details. Petrozamora was founded in 2012 to develop oil fields in Venezuela. In 2013, Gazprombank, GPB, Petrozamora, and PDVSA agreed to allocate up to $1 billion for the development of the joint venture. Now, Gazprombank does not have any investment projects in Venezuela.  Rosneft has become the only Russian company with large assets there, Kommersant noted. According to Reuters, the Russian giant oil company has lost about $9 billion on its investments in Venezuela since 2010. Rosneft is running five projects in Venezuela while producing a small share of its total oil production. The crisis in Venezuela involves the risk that the country will not be able to pay its debts. Back in 2011, more than 66% of the Neftegaz.Ru survey respondents approved the participation of Russian companies in the development of the Orinoco fields. However, right now, this heavy and highly viscous oil that the fields have produced remains unsold, as buyers have become hesitant toward purchasing sanctioned oil. Over 8 billion barrels of crude oil are now stored in offshore oil tankers, as the onshore oil terminals are full. If the situation is not improved, we can expect Russian companies in Venezuela to report serious problems. Moreover, these problems are already there. The excess of Venezuela’s oil supply has slowed down work on the Orinoco Belt, including projects for modernizing production facilities – projects which Rosneft is conducting in a joint venture with PDVSA. Rosneft has a share in five joint ventures: PetroVictoria, Petromiranda, Petromonagas, Boqueron, and Petroperija. The international rating agency Moody’s said the US sanctions against PDVSA would limit the financial and operational flexibility of Rosneft’s joint ventures in Venezuela since PDVSA owns more than 50% of each one of them. As is known, Washington has posed large-scale sanctions against PDVSA designed to limit the export of Venezuelan oil and to force President Nicholas Maduro to resign. Russia is among the countries that continue to support Maduro. Over the past few years, the Russian Federation has become Venezuela’s last resort in terms of lenders. According to Reuters estimates, the Russian government and state-owned Rosneft have lent Venezuela at least $17 billion since 2006. Dmitry Peskov, Spokesman for the Russian President, said on March 1 that no negotiations on new financial support for Venezuela were being conducted at the presidential level, but Russia continued to maintain contacts with its partners in Venezuela. “We are interested in continuing cooperation with Venezuela — especially as a number of our companies are running fairly large projects there. We hope that these projects have good potential, that they will have the potential for expansion, and of course, we wish the Venezuelan partners to cope with the difficulties they are facing, both political and economic ones, as soon as possible,” Peskov told reporters.        
 

general Here comes OPEC PR Offensive

OPEC Sec Gen hitting the PR circuit hard at the CERAWEEK OIL. conference this week.  Now they are the US friend.  Never forget how they blocked oil to US '73 '74 after we supported Isreal against Egypt/Syria, tried to kill US oil production both '85 - '86. , '98 - '99, and recently 2014 - 15.  Last one didnt work because non-OPEC oil has grown.  They want US oil companies to join the cartels effort.  It's against the law.  The OPEC and supporting US oil co's sherade that oil investment will dry up is a false argument.  For instance Hess just reported that new wells 2018 forward get 55% return at $50 a barrel !  Imagin what their return will be at $70 bbl. Short term prices could rise based on Sandi's cutting "EXPORTS"  in April.  Be careful to distinguish between production cuts and exports cuts.  The producers can play games with these nuanced announcements.  But more important the thing to watch is if Trump continues the Iranian waivers allowing continued shipping of oil (to India, China, etc). Sandi's said they will do whatever it takes to support oil prices.  I believe them. BUT FORTUNETLEY THEY HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THE OIL SUPPLY TSUNAMI THAT WILL HIT THE WORLD  MARKET FROM PERMIAN.  Starting Q4 into 2020 (1) new PERMIAN pipelines (2)  4 new or upgraded oil export terminals (3) by the close to 10,000 DUCs (Drilled but Uncompleted wells) will support the supply. Oil economics have changed.  Technology is transforming another industry and it's only just started.  As Chevron CEO stated, " cut costs or die". Chevron making more now than when oil was $90.0 0 bbl.   What will the valuation of E&P, Refiners, etc be if oil "stabilizes" or "balances" at $45 bbl. NOPEC should pass Congress. There are no Cartels in , Natural Gas, Iron Ore, Soybeans, Lithium, Cobalt, Gold, Silver, etc, etc, etc. Before the shale gas revolution (2007) the US was importing gas at $12.00 to $14.00 per mm/BTU.  Today it's $2.80 per mm and more investment than ever.  Japan was paying $20.00 + .  Now $7.00. Oil industry needs to face reality.  Sandi's can't charge $85 bbl for oil that cost them $4.00bbl to lift. I think we will still have cycles after the decision on waivers is made by May 8th but going forward in the year we should see lower highs with the spread between the high and low tightening until we see prices balancing in the low $50s by Q4 with even lower prices in years ahead.

JC

JJCar

 

general oil Producers hedging against downturn

Huge volume in Put Options .  Producers locking in prices at these levels.  They understand  (1) three new pipelines Permian to Gulf Mexico by Q3. (2) four upgraded or new oil export terminal on Gulf. The new Corpus Christi oil export terminal being constructed by Carlyle Group will load 2 million bbls/day. (3) there will be over 9000 Drilled But Uncompleted wells in shale, most in Permian by Q4.  OPEC/Saudi Arabia cuts and propaganda can't stop the flow of US oil to world markets.  The likes of BP or Hess CEOs talk of "stabilizing" and "balancing" the market to assure investment will be exposed for what it is . . . .  a big con.  Hess is making 55% return on new wells in Bakken holdings at $50.00 oil price.  Saudi's breakeven is $4.00, BP paid $10.5 Billion for 400,000+ of second rate acres last Fall with only a small percentage in Permian. SHALE GAS doesn't need a cartel.  Pre SHALE GAS U.S. was paying $12.00 to $14.00 mm/BTU. Today paying $2.80 mm/btu And New INVESTMENT BIGGER THAN EVER  ! The 50 years of OPEC extortion and price fixing is coming to end in 2020.   OPEC can get prices up short term for the summer driving season. I wouldn't want to be long oil  toward end of year.   The king is dead (price fixing). . . .  Long live Free Markets. ! ! ! ! 

JC

JJCar

 

Here comes OPEC PR Offensive

OPEC Sec Gen hitting the PR circuit hard at the CERAWEEK OIL. conference this week.  Now they are the US friend.  Never forget how they blocked oil to US '73 '74 after we supported Is real against Egypt/Syria, tried to kill US oil production both '85 - '86. , '98 - '99, and recently 2014 - 15.  Last one didn work because non-OPEC oil has grown.  They want US oil companies to join the cartels effort.   The sherade that oil investment will dry up is a false argument.  For instance Hess just reported that new wells 2018 forward get 55% return at $50 a barrel !  Imag one what their return will be at $70 bbl. Short term prices could rise based on Sandi's cutting "EXPORTS"  in April.  Be careful to distinguish between production cuts and exports cuts.  The producers can play games with this nuanced announcements. But more important the thing to watch is if Trump continues the Iranian waivers allowing continued shipping of oil (to India, China, etc). Sandi's said they will do whatever it takes to support oil prices.  I believe them. BUT FORTUNETLEY THEY HAVE NO CONTROL OVER THE OIL SUPPLY TSUNAMI THAT WILL HIT THE WORLD  MARKET FROM PERMIAN.  Starting Q4 into 2020 (1) new PERMIAN pipelines (2)  4 new or upgraded oil export terminals (3) by the close to 10,000 DUCs (Drilled but Uncompleted wells) will support the supply. Oil economics have changed.  Technology is transforming another industry and it's only just started.   What will the valuation of E&P, Refiners, etc be if oil "stabilizes" or "balances" at $45 bbl. NOPEC should pass Congress. There are no Cartels in , Natural Gas, Iron Ore, Soybeans, Lithium, Cobalt, Gold, Silver, etc, etc, etc.  Oil industry needs to face reality.  Sandi's can't charge $85 bbl for oil that cost them $4.00bbl to lift. Hess better watch it.  Don't collude to prop up prices.  Could return to bite you.

JC

JJCar

US - update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 99,579 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through November 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.1 Gbo and 109 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard November oil production from these wells will come in at close to 6.5 million bo/d, after upcoming revisions. The number of well completions in 2018 through November was more than 20% higher, compared with the same period a year earlier.   The production profiles for all these wells can be found in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The major oil basins are selected and the performance is averaged for all the wells that started in a particular year. Well productivity clearly rose every year since 2011, with again a minor improvement in 2018.   The total oil & gas production from the 5 largest operators can be viewed in the final tab. EOG produced in November almost double the amount of oil as the number 2, ConocoPhillips. They all significantly increased production in 2018. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. As the curves on this plot demonstrate, the decline behavior of these wells is typically quite predictable. By extrapolating them until a certain economic limit, you can make a reasonable estimate of ultimate recovery. You can also do so for your favorite operator, and/or basin, just by selecting them using the filters. The 5,338 wells that started in 2016 recovered just over 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production, on average, as well as 0.5 Bcf of natural gas (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see that). This constitutes a decline of ~82% in these 2 years (from 516 bo/d to 93 bo/d). We are happy to see that The Wall Street Journal has also started to use our services, with this article (behind a paywall): Chevron, Exxon Mobil Tighten Their Grip on Fracking.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will soon release January production data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2F6dk1B Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,019 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in the Eagle Ford during 2018 stayed within a few percents of the 1.3 million bo/d level set in December 2017, and I expect that to hold also after upcoming upward revisions. Through November, operators completed 10% more wells than in the same period in 2017.   Well productivity hasn’t changed much in the past year, as you can easily see in the bottom graph of the ‘Well quality’ tab.   All leading operators were off their peak production in November (see ‘Top operators’), although EOG & ConocoPhillips only marginally so. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. So far most oil has been recovered by the 4,465 wells that started in 2014; they are now at 155 thousand barrels of oil and at a flow rate of 31 bo/d, on average. Newer wells are on a path to recover about 30 thousand barrels of oil more once they hit the same level. We have seen quite some interest in the Austin Chalk formation in this area. Production is increasing, although from a small base. This screenshot, from our advanced analytics service, compares the performance of wells in the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford, for the 2015-2017 vintages, with only oil wells selected.   Clearly, recent Austin Chalk wells are outperforming those in the Eagle Ford. Early next week we will have a post covering data from 10 states in the US.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VChWlm   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through November 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 19,047 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard November oil production came in above 3 million bo/d (after revisions), at a y-o-y growth rate of 1 million bo/d. More than 4,200 horizontal wells were completed in 2018 through November, double the number in the same period in 2016.   Average well productivity has only increased slightly since 2016, after big gains in the years before, as the ‘Well quality’ tab shows.   The 2 largest producers, Pioneer Natural Resources & Concho Resources, are now above 250 thousand bo/d of operated capacity (see “Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that recent wells (2016/2017) are on a path to recover on average about 300 thousand barrels of oil, before their production rate has fallen to 40 bo/d. Associated gas production is high in the Permian, at well over 9 Bcf/d. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you can find the average gas production for the same wells. Newer wells are on average likely to recover 1.5 Bcf of natural gas or more.   Today (Tuesday) at noon (EST) we will also present an update on the Permian and the Eagle Ford on enelyst, where we will share our insights in these basins based on the latest data. Last month many of you subscribed to our analytics service, which offers access to more dashboards, well data, and more recent production data. Thank you! The cheapest subscription version, Analyst, costs just $52/month per user, and you can try it for 1 month for only $19. With this, you will experience some of the analytical power of ShaleProfile Analytics.   Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HgILaR   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through December 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,706 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Gas production in Pennsylvania ended last year at over 18 Bcf/d, with a y-o-y growth rate of 2 Bcf/d. This was the result of the addition of 6.8 Bcf/d from the just over 800 horizontal wells that started production in 2018, minus the 4.8 Bcf/d decline from legacy wells. Such a large contribution from new wells (6.8 Bcf/d in a year) has not been seen before in Pennsylvania. A major factor behind this result is the increase in well stimulation. Newer wells are completed with over 18 million pounds of proppant on average per well, versus less than 14 million pounds per well in 2017. In our ShaleProfile Analytics service, you can analyze this by operator, or even by well.   Initial well productivity improved again in 2018, as you’ll find in the top chart in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The bottom chart shows that wells that started production in 2017 are on a path to recover 4 Bcf of natural gas in the first 2 years on production. The 2018 vintage has even a slightly better start.   The 5 largest natural gas producers in Pennsylvania produced each more than 1.5 Bcf/d at the end of 2018. Cabot is in the lead, with 2.7 Bcf/d of operated output. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain year. The 1,188 horizontal wells that started production in 2014 have on average recovered most natural gas, at just over 4 Bcf. They also appear to be on a path to recover more than the wells from the following 2 years. But the wells that have started production since 2017 clearly have a better start, peaking at over 10,000 Mcf/d on average.   In the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’), you’ll find in more detail how well performance has changed over time. If you change the metric to measure the cumulative gas production in the first 3 months (instead of 24 months), you’ll note that, according to this metric, well productivity has more than tripled in the past 8 years. Newer wells recover on average 0.9 Bcf in the first 3 (calendar) months on production. For wells in Susquehanna County, this is even above 1.5 Bcf (use the ‘County’ selection to filter on this county). By the middle of next week, we will have a new post on the Permian. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ExomN0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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What if the Oil Business did this?...

What if the oil and gas industry could find capital without giving up large chunks of equity, dancing to a banker's tune or having to go out and raise capital in non-conventional methods? What if the price of oil didn't play havoc with every financing decision made?  Who can call the floor on prices?  Oil executives are handcuffing themselves to believe that higher prices are coming, try to second guess the market and are hamstrung by the proverbial 'paralysis by analysis.' What if we didn't see the decline in prices impacted by computer-driven models?  What if the true value of oil and gas were represented by real time trading and fundamental factors versus declines that were more technical in nature? What if producers that have capital needs could have their production bought over a three to four year time frame and have that oil or gas paid for up front to generate the much needed capital they seek? What if there would be someone out there to absorb this 'time-risk' for a term and get the producer the money they need for re-works, PUD drilling, debt pay-down etc.? What if the producer had the capability of getting this capital off balance sheet, non-recourse, no debt and no equity relinquishment?  What if there were tax benefits thrown in as well? What if the producer maintains total control and participates in 100% of the upside by using this capital? What if the biggest risk in the transaction was delivery risk? What if the capital was easy to access and could close the transactions in 45 days or less? What if we talk about this?  

North Dakota – update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,383 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in North Dakota increased by almost 2% m-o-m to just over 1.4 million barrels of oil per day in December, after a small drop in November. In December 121 wells started production, vs. 98 in November. Although the number of wells that started production in 2018 was more than a thousand fewer than in 2014 (1,266 vs. 2,276), they contributed more production at the end of the year (630 kbo/d, vs 595 kbo/d in Dec 2014).   The reason behind this is that initial well productivity greatly increased over these years, as is shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The wells that started in 2018 are on a path to recover just over 170 thousand barrels of oil in the first year, while this was below 100 thousand barrels for the wells from 2014. One major difference between these 2 vintages was the amount of proppant used; 4.5 million pounds per completion in 2014, vs. 10 million pounds per completion in 2018.   All the top 5 operators are at or near record production levels (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. As you can see, the best initial performance so far came from wells that started in Q3 2017. The 271 wells that started in that quarter recovered on average 207 thousand barrels of oil in the first 16 months, and have now declined to 191 bo/d, from a peak rate of 719 bo/d. If you switch product to ‘gas’, you can find the gas production from the same wells. What is striking is that newer wells produce way more gas than older ones (I estimate up to 3 times more). As gas is not earning a lot of money in North Dakota, I advice to be aware of this when looking at production metrics in this basin that use ‘BOE’ (barrels of oil equivalent). Is this rising GOR having an impact on well productivity? On a large scale, the impact seems to be currently limited. However, in some areas well performance seems to suffer from this. As an example, find here the wells from Oasis in McKenzie County, from our analytics service. I preselected a couple of quarters, to show how well behavior has changed since 2011.   The location of these wells is shown on the map on the left. On the right side, you will find the flow rate vs. cumulative plot, and the GOR vs. cumulative plot at the bottom. It shows that the wells from Q2 2011 are on a path to recover most oil, even though the more recent wells started at a far higher peak rate. The steepening of the decline seems to correlate with the rise in GOR. As I mentioned last week, we now have data from Oklahoma in our database, which is available to all our analytics and data subscribers. I would like to make this data also available here on the blog. But because we spent a significant amount of money and time on this, I would first like to see that our customer base has grown even further. My promise to you is this; once we have added 100 more Professional (or Ultimate, once this level is available) analytics subscribers, I will include Oklahoma in our blog posts here. How can you help? Maybe you find use in the more advanced features of these services or know people who might. Please let them know about us, and hopefully we can soon share this data with you here. Thank you for supporting us! Early next week we will have an update on gas production in Pennsylvania.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 98,450 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through October 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.9 Gbo and 108 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Later this post I will be making 3 major announcements; about a new (and cheap!) analytics service, Oklahoma, and the NAPE. But first, how has shale oil production developed in the past year? You will find in the graph above that all these horizontal wells produced 6.2 million barrels of oil per day in October, which after revisions will be a few percents higher still. More than half of total oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as indicated by the dark blue area. Over 20% more wells were completed in the first 10 months 2018, compared with the same period a year earlier.   Initial well productivity increased slightly further in 2018, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where all the oily basins have been preselected.   All the 5 top shale producers were at, or near, production highs in October (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Peak rates have steadily moved higher over the years, as you’ll see here. In Q3 2018, the average peak rate was 668 bo/d, versus 285 bo/d 7 years earlier. Extrapolating these curves allows you to make a reasonable estimate of the ultimate recovery range. You can switch ‘Product’ to natural gas, to do the same for the gas stream of these wells. Today we have 3 major announcements to make: A new analytics subscription level is now available, ShaleProfile Analytics – Analyst, For just $52 per month you can always get access to the latest data, see the exact location of more than 100,000 horizontal wells, and their production history. Most dashboards can be viewed full-screen, and you will have more filtering options, such as between oil & gas wells. If you have been a follower of the blog, and want to stay even more informed, this may be something for you. You can try out this service for the first month for just $19. We almost lose money on this subscription, so don’t wait too long! Oklahoma is in now! Oklahoma has so far been the big missing state in our database. By having it in, we now cover around 98% of all the horizontal wells in the US. It has been a tough state to work with, as data sources are unreliable and incomplete. We have spent a big amount of effort (and $) to add it. There are still some data issues to sort out, but we believe we can already now call it at least a 90% version. There is a greater lag time for Oklahoma than for most other states; we can currently cover production data through March 2018. Try out one of our subscriptions to get access to all this data! Today the NAPE conference here in Houston will start for real. Come visit our booth (#2331) if you have the opportunity, and I’ll show you what we can do for you. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release December data later this week. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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A Special Place in Hell for Brexiters-Donald Tusk

Brexiters hit back at Tusk for commenting that they deserve a special place in Hell for Brexit happening without a deal. Welsh first minister says it would be a catastrophe for Wales if Brexit happens without a plan. Nearly 5 m British and EU people could be stuck in Limbo if Brexit happens without a deal, though Brexiters hit back saying it's  an insult to 17.4 m who voted for Brexit and want apology from Tusk.

Sukumar Ray

Sukumar Ray

Permian – update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 18,480 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in the Permian kept rising at a rate of ~1 million bo/d y-o-y through October. I expect that after revisions total output topped 3 million bo/d. That also means that almost 60% of October oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as is visualized in the graph above. Gas production has seen a very similar growth path, and is now over 9 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Despite increased completion activity, well productivity has still slightly increased since 2016, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Recent wells are on a path to recover on average around 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production. Important factors behind this increase in well performance are longer laterals, and bigger frac jobs. The following screenshot, from our ShaleProfile Analytics service, shows that average cumulative oil production in the six months rose on both sides of the state border since 2012. Interestingly, results are on average better in New Mexico, even though laterals are shorter and proppant loadings are smaller. The final tab shows that all 5 leading operators have roughly tripled their output in the past 3 years. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Initial well productivity has kept rising through the last quarters. The more than 1,000 wells that started in Q3 last year peaked over 800 bo/d in their first full calendar month. Let’s also take a look at the terminal decline in this basin, as we did in our last 2 posts, even though the average well age is much younger here. I again used the ‘Terminal decline’ dashboard from our Professional Analytics service. See here the result: The performance is shown of all the horizontal oil wells in the Permian, that started production between 2011 and 2014. Only wells are selected that fell below a production rate of 60 bo/d not later than May 2016 (this ensures that we have at least 30 months of data for all wells), from which they never recovered. There were 3,183 such wells, from in total 6,065 horizontal oil wells that started in the Permian in these 4 years. The top chart shows the oil production rate (logarithmic scale) of these wells, by the number of months since they fell below 60 bo/d. The wells are grouped by the year in which they started. The bottom chart shows the average annual decline, calculated based on the plot above. If you have also seen the previous 2 posts, you’ll note that terminal decline rates are lower here than in the DJ Basin & the Eagle Ford. The decline rates drop to a level between 15 and 25%, before they stabilize or start to increase again. As noted above, data after 30 months is not complete (not all wells have more historical data). Also here you’ll see that younger wells experience larger decline rates. Again I would like to emphasize that part of that is expected, as they earlier in their hyperbolic decline curve, where decline rates are naturally higher. But it still appears that even if you correct for that, younger wells decline faster. Likely there are several effects in play, such as changing economic limits & completion designs and more infill drilling. As more and more wells enter this phase, this could increase the decline rate of the whole population (e.g. a certain vintage), negatively impacting EURs and reserves. If you have any thoughts on this topic, please share them below in the comments section.   Next week we are at the NAPE summit in Houston, so if you happen to be there, please come visit our booth (#2331). We still have time available earlier in the week for 1-on-1 meetings in Houston, so please contact us if you’re interested in understanding how we might help you.   Early next week we will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. We also plan to launch a new (cheaper!) version of our Analytics service then. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,912 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through October.   Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production increased slightly in the Eagle Ford in 2018, as operators completed ~10% more wells than in 2017, based on preliminary data. Once revision data is in, I expect that October production will be close to 1.3 million bo/d. Gas production from these wells is good for almost 6 Bcf/d (toggle ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Average initial well productivity almost didn’t change year-over-year, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. If you click there on 2018 in the legend, you’ll note that the wells that started last year are so far closely tracking the performance of the 2017 wells. Although newer wells are peaking at more than double the rate than wells that started in 2011/2012, they are also declining faster. I expect that after 2-3 years on production, they have declined to a very similar production rate as those earlier wells had at that age. That becomes especially apparent if you select for example just the wells from 2012 and 2016 (keep the ‘Ctrl’ key in when selecting both of these years), and if you change the axis to a linear scale. I’ll show you more about these decline rates later in this post.   Of the top 5 operators in the Eagle Ford, only the 2 largest (EOG & ConocoPhillips) set new production records in September, The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. I’ve preselected the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford formations. As I showed last week for the DJ Basin, also here you can see that the decline steepens once wells have reached low levels of production. How large are the decline rates here? To answer this question, I again used our new ‘Terminal decline’ dashboard from our Professional Analytics service. See here the result:     Here the performance is shown of all the horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford, that started production between 2011 and 2014. Only wells are selected that have produced predominantly oil, and which fell below a production rate of 60 bo/d not later than Nov 2015 (this ensures that we have at least 36 months of data for all wells), from which they never recovered. There were 5,628 such wells, from in total 11,554 horizontal oil wells that started in the Eagle Ford in those 4 years. The top chart shows the oil production rate (logarithmic scale) of these wells, by the month since they fell below 60 bo/d. The wells are grouped by the year in which they started. The bottom chart shows the average annual decline of all these wells. Three observations: After annual decline rates have slightly stabilized (after month 26 or so), you can see that the annual decline is close to, or above 20%. Each year, the annual decline rate is higher. Some of this is expected, as younger wells are in an earlier part of their decline curve, where the decline is steeper. But even if you correct for that (e.g. by comparing the performance of 2 consecutive vintages shifted by 12 months), the decline rates of younger wells are higher. In particular, the wells from 2014 never really go below 25% annual decline. Once wells reach a very low production rate (~10 bo/d), the decline rate accelerates again. A special thank you to Mike Shellman for sharing a wealth of articles and oilfield knowledge regarding this topic. Next week we are at the NAPE summit in Houston, so if you happen to be there, please come visit our booth (#2331). We also still have time available earlier in the week for 1-on-1 meetings in Houston, so please contact us if you’re interested in understanding how we might help you.   Tomorrow at 10:30 (EST) we’ll also cover the Eagle Ford in our enelyst chat. Later this week, or early next week, there will be a new update on the Permian Basin.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MMYWh2   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Terminal Decline Rates averaging 25-30% in Niobrara - update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 9,508 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in these 2 states set a new high in October, at just over 550 thousand bo/d. Gas production also came in at a record level, at close to 3 Bcf/d.   The year over year growth rate dropped however, compared with the previous year, despite that more wells were completed in the first 10 months of 2018 vs 2017. More wells were needed to offset the decline from wells that came online in 2017, and well productivity also fell a little, based on preliminary data (see the ‘Well quality’ tab).   The DUC count has remained steady in the past year, as you’ll see in the ‘Well status’ dashboard if you only select the DUCs (using the well status selection on the top).   Anadarko, the largest producer in this area, showed a drop in production in the previous 12 months. The numbers 2 to 4 (Noble Energy, Extraction Oil & Gas, and PDC) did break their previous records in October. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. This time I only selected Weld County (using the ‘County’ filter at the bottom), as it is good for almost 80% of total production,  and I wanted to highlight some interesting things happening here. The first observation is that well productivity appears to have fallen since 2016 Q4/2017 Q1, as wells from later quarters are trending towards slightly lower ultimate recoveries. The second, and probably more important one, is about the terminal decline rates that you can see here. As you follow these curves from wells that started between 2011 and 2015, you’ll see that they start to accelerate downward as lower production levels are reached. You’ll see the same effect if you select the natural gas stream from these wells (‘Product’ selection). That doesn’t bode well for long-term recovery estimates. So how big are these terminal decline rates actually? We’ve just added a new dashboard in our Professional Analytics service, which aims to answer these kind of questions. Here you will see a screenshot of this dashboard, in which all the horizontal wells in Weld County are selected, that started production since 2012. Only wells are selected that fell below a production rate of 40 bo/d, from which they never fully recovered, before November 2015.     You can see 2 graphs here. The one on the top shows the average flow rate of all the 1,354 horizontal wells that met these criteria, versus time (the number of months after they fell below 40 bo/d). The graph on the bottom plots the average terminal decline rate of all these wells. I recommend ignoring the results up to month 20 or so, due to the inherent bias of this selection. However, you can see that a relatively steady state has been reached after 24 months. Between 24 months, and 36 months, which contains data for all these wells, you will find an average annual decline rate between 25 and 30%. This, I believe, is a far higher terminal decline rate than is commonly assumed when making ultimate recovery estimates. In this dashboard, you will have many more options. For example, you can look at all the other shale basins, or at the terminal decline rate of the gas streams, or group these wells by e.g. the year in which they started to see how these terminal decline rates have changed with newer completions. Other basins didn’t show the same high terminal decline rate, but also there they were significant.   Later today in our show at enelyst, at 10:30 EST, we will take a closer look at the latest data from North Dakota, in which we will also examine some findings of this new dashboard. You can join this event here: enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18”   Next week we will have updates on the Eagle Ford, and also the Permian if new data for New Mexico has been released by then.   Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2sS8MF7   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Will Taiwan become Tibet of East Asia?

Beginning of the New Year 2019 saw the Chinese President Xi Jinping  belligerence towards Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (RoC). President Xi Jinping proclaimed that Taiwan unification must be the ultimate goal of any discourse regarding its future and laid out unyielding position that use of force is not ruled out should Taipei asserts full independence. This is not the first time that China openly declared its intention on Taiwan. In December 1995, Chinese officials asked US Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Nye directly what would the US do if China attacked Taiwan. Nye’s response was: “We don’t know and you don’t know. It would depend upon circumstances.” Beijing considers Taiwan( Formosa) as a breakaway province. RoC is self-governed but it has never formally announced independence from Mainland. The Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen had made it clear that the island nation would never consider reunification with China under the terms offered by Beijing. United States lent its weight behind Taipei by sending guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell and the fleet replenishment oiler USNS Walter S.Diehl through Taiwan Strait. It has further heightened tensions between the US and China. Meanwhile, US Pacific Fleet spokesperson Lieutenant Commander Tim Gorman told Cable News Network that it was a “routine Taiwan Strait Transit” under international law. On the other hand,Taiwan’s navy showcased its latest long-range surveillance drone as a push to counter China’s increasingly muscular rhetoric. Both these moves are symbolic in nature yet an attempt was made to convey to Beijing that Taiwan will not become Tibet of East Asia. Situated in the West Pacific between Japan and Phillippines, Taiwan is of strategic importance both for China and US. Taiwan (Formosa) lies at the edge of South China Sea shipping lanes. On the eve of Japan’s surrender in the World War-II, the State Department of US published a note on Taiwan which remarked: Strategic factors greatly influence the problem of Formosa. With the exception of Singapore no location in the Far East occupies such a controlling position. Regional powers like Japan in World War-II used Taiwan as a base both for defensive and offensive startegic purposes. It was a very important supply base for Japanese armies in South East Asia during their operations in Second World War. The US Navy commented in 1944 that: The island of Taiwan dominates the China coast and all coastwise shipping between Japan and South Eastern Asia. Its airfields and ports supported the movement of Japanese troops and supplies throughout the Southern theatres of action. For China, Taiwan is not just a matter of territorial sovereignty as it claims but is important from its security point of view. The control of Taiwan would help China’s operations in South China Sea. It can then more effectively assert and settle its territorial claims against Phillippines,Brunei,Vietnam etc. If Beijing succeeds in the unification of Taiwan then it will be able to use its deep water ports for its submarines to venture into Pacific Ocean. This will project China’s power in Pacific and will be a challenge to US naval assests. Beijing knows that if an external power occupies or make a base in Taiwan then it can cut-off China’s trade lines and a naval blockade could be a catastrophe for China’s rise as an economic and military power. When two elephants fight, it is the grass that is trampled. But some 23 million Taiwanese people do not want their fate to be that of grass. Taiwan’s loss of the China seat at the United Nations in 1971 was internationally the culmination of a slow erosion in support for the RoC. History reminds us of the destiny of Tibetans at a time when China was not so powerful economically and militarily. The question is can Taiwan defend itself against China if it really uses the force as claimed by Chinese President Xi Jinping? Today, the Chinese expansion of naval assets and capabilities in South China Sea will definitely alter the dynamics of war should it occur between People’s Republic of China and RoC. With UK trying to overcome Brexit imbroglio and France trying to put its own house in order, US may not get the full support of allies against China over Taiwan. Taiwan is not just a symbol of democracy at the gate of authoritarian Communist China which should be morally supported and militarily protected by Western world but its geographical location has made it a vital piece on global chess board of politics which is being played between US and China. The answer to the future of Taiwan lies in the womb of time but the clock is ticking for Taipei as China flexes its economic, diplomatic and military muscle.      

S

Straight Talk

Marcellus (PA) – update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,639 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards November gas production showed another big gain, as more than 0.3 Bcf/d was added. Total gas production for the month was 18 Bcf/d, 16% higher than a year ago. The 759 wells that started production in 2018 contributed 6.5 Bcf/d to the November numbers, or 36%. This is typically a far higher percentage in the oil basins, as you can see in our other posts, which is mostly caused by a steeper decline of oil versus gas.   The production profiles of all these wells can be found in the 2nd tab (‘Well quality’). By default, they are averaged by the year in which the wells started production. The bottom plot shows the cumulative production versus time graphs, and they clearly reveal how each year well productivity improved. One main driver has been the increase in reservoir stimulation; wells in 2018 were completed with almost 17 million pounds of proppant, on average, while this was only 4 million pounds six years earlier.   The 2 largest gas operators, Cabot and Chesapeake, both increased their output in November, as you’ll find in the final tab (‘Top operators’). Cabot almost exclusively operates in Susquehanna County, where the best well results can be found. There it is responsible for over 60% of the gas produced. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain quarter. The 348 wells that started in Q4 2013 have each recovered 4.6 Bcf of natural gas, and they are still producing at 1.3 MMcf/d, on average. Newer wells appear so far to be on a trajectory to do well above those numbers.   That well productivity has rapidly grown over time is also visible in the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’). The average cumulative production in the first 2 years is plotted there, and based on this metric performance doubled in just a couple of years.   Early next week we’ll be back with a post on the Niobrara. If you don’t like to wait to get access to the latest data, I have good news for you. In just 1 or 2 weeks, we’ll be launching a new subscription level (‘Basic’), for which you can get access to our analytics platform for a very low fee ($52 per user / month). No need to install anything, full-screen dashboards, maps with all individual horizontal wells plotted, more filtering options and much more.   We’ll be in Houston in the 2nd week of February, for the NAPE summit. Come visit our booth, or contact us if you like to meet us during that week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HEHe02   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through November 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,263 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota dropped 1% m-o-m to 1,376 kbo/d in November, after a record output in October. The main factor behind this drop appears to be the smaller number of wells that went into production in October (119) and November (108), after a busy summer (~140 completions per month).   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”) shows that the wells that came online in 2018 perform slightly better on average than the ones from the year before.   Each of the 5 largest operators produces over 100 thousand barrels of oil per day (gross) in this state (“Top operators”), and all of them increased output in 2018. Together they are responsible for over 40% of all oil produced in November. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The graph shows clear improvements in initial well productivity over the last couple of years. Interesting is however also that wells from the 2008-2011 period decline slightly slower than those from 2012-2015. This effect remains even after correcting for refracs (which is possible in our advanced analytics service).   The gas/oil ratio (GOR) has steadily climbed in North Dakota, as is depicted by the orange curve in the bottom graph on the 9th tab (“Gas oil ratio”). The reasons behind that are revealed in the plot above it; the GOR normally climbs over the life of a well, but newer wells are also starting with a higher GOR, and see their GOR rising faster. In the coming days we’ll have a new update on gas production in Pennsylvania, on which we will also report in our chat tomorrow morning on enelyst (10:30 am EST). For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2RSy58n   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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