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About this blog

I started this blog to express what I sense about the highs and lows of the oil realm, while cautiously analysing historical data, taking into account the geo-political development at the time of recording them.

I got into this field, having been a passive observer of fluctuations of crude oil prices and their global consequences for years.

Then, when on the day of Great Oil Crash in April, 2020, I made a decision to make my own blog, with the motto, ‘analysing data that really matters’.

Having come from an academic background in mathematics and physics, I analyse data using my own tools, created with JavaScript and Python, taking my decision on board while making decisions.

My website where I analyse data that really matters

Entries in this blog

 

Socar Trading projects oil prices to hit $80 in 2021

Hayal Ahmadzada, Socar’s chief trading officer, said the glut of excess oil stocks that built up in 2020 in response to the pandemic will be fully drawn down by the summer. At the same time, soaring prices for steel used in pipes, wells and fittings as well as the high cost of capital for producers will crimp a meaningful supply response by an already hobbled industry even as demand returns. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Analyst downgrades erase $18B of Petrobras stock value

Bradesco BBI, BTG Pactual, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, Nau Securities, Santander, Scotiabank and XP Investimentos cut their ratings on the shares after Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Friday decided to fire the oil company’s CEO following a spat over hikes in fuel prices and moved to appoint Joaquim Silva e Luna, a former army general, as a replacement. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Israel and Egypt discuss natural gas pipeline link

The announcement comes as nations in the eastern Mediterranean ramp up investments in offshore gas fields. Egypt is seeking to become a major hub for exporting LNG to Europe, where demand is growing as governments transition from dirtier fossil fuels such as coal and oil. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Iraq walks away from $2B upfront oil deal with China

Prepayment deals are rare in the oil world and this was meant to improve Iraq’s financial situation. While the government is still struggling, its position has improved on soaring oil prices, largely thanks to the rollout of coronavirus vaccines. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Oil Price:next OPEC+ meeting on March 4 will be crucial

In spite of the rise in oil price, defying the forecasts that said otherwise, Saudis have been urging the members of the OPEC to be cautious. We do not know for sure whether the Saudis knew the dip in price this week in advance – by instinct or from a model that the rest of the analysts are not aware of. Up until this week, Saudi Arabia got it calculations right and they deserve the credit for it: their strategy worked perfectly well and OPEC members could breathe a long, collective s

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale goals move further out of reach

YPF is aiming for capital expenditures this year of $2.7 billion, as it tries to halt four years of production declines. After the coronavirus pandemic decimated revenue and the debt swap yielded limited results, getting there will require increasing fuel prices, cutting drilling costs, selling local debt, and maybe divesting assets. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Saudi Arabia and Russia at odds before crucial OPEC meeting

Ten months after slashing crude production when Covid-19 crushed global demand, OPEC and its allies are still withholding 7 million barrels a day from the market. It's been a sacrifice, and now the group must chart a path forward that won't erase hard-fought oil price gains. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Crude Oil Production Cuts by OPEC+: murmurs of discontent

At present, OPEC+, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, resembles an unstable nucleus of a radioactive atom; judging by what we hear on political front, there seems to be an uneasy compliance with self-imposed quota-limits with murmurs of cacophonies.   Although crude price dipped slightly over the past two days, it is still high and countries that desperately need petro cash to prop up under-performing economies are deprived of a once-in-a decade opportunity to ca

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Higher oil revenue gives Putin room to challenge Russian discontent

Amid growing tensions with the West and fears of new sanctions, Putin has been reluctant to spend heavily in recent years, even during the pandemic. Stagnant living standards have helped fuel public anger at the Kremlin, which has boiled over into the biggest nationwide protests in years and poses a challenge for Putin’s ruling party in parliamentary elections this fall. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Oil prices wobble on lower U.S. supplies and weaker crude demand

A fourth weekly decrease in crude inventories and the decline in production highlights the steady downtrend in U.S. supplies before an unprecedented cold blast wiped out nearly 40% of domestic output. Still, demand for crude and fuel is weaker with the cold weather spurring a string of refinery outages and keeping more Americans off the road. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Iraq’s climbing oil exports push OPEC compliance further out of reach

Baghdad pledged to pump below its quota in February to make up for past overproduction. Still, the pace of its crude exports in the first half of the month, if maintained through the rest of February, indicates the country may exceed its self-imposed production target of 3.6 million barrels a day and perhaps even its OPEC+ cap of around 3.85 million. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com

 

Falling Texas crude output becomes a global oil market crisis

In the past, the weather-related oil disruption would largely have been a U.S. issue. Now it’s unmistakably global. Crude markets in Europe are rallying as traders replace lost U.S. exports. OPEC and its allies must decide how much longer they keep millions of barrels of their supply off the market. View the full article

hemanthaa@mail.com

hemanthaa@mail.com