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Pennsylvania – update through June 2020

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 9,693 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through June.

PA463eeeeewe22.png

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

Total production

Natural gas production fell by 0.4 Bcf/d in June to 18.4 Bcf/d, after a slightly larger drop in the month before. Year-over-year growth was just 0.15 Bcf/d. Natural gas prices hit a record low in June of just $1.63 per Mcf, the lowest so far in the 21st century. Only 32 new wells were brought online in June, compared with 56 a year earlier.

Supply Projection dashboard

In the Marcellus Basin overall only 26 were drilling horizontal wells, as of last week (according to the Baker Hughes rig count), a lower number than in the Haynesville (32). As our Supply Projection dashboard reveals, at this level production growth will be negative in the Marcellus going forward, while natural gas output will rise in the Haynesville  (assuming no changes in rig count and rig/well productivity):

Gas-basins.png

Natural gas outlook in the Haynesville and the Marcellus, based on current drilling activity

Well productivity

Well productivity is still at a record high  (see the “Well quality” tab), but hasn’t increased much since 2017. Wells in the past few years are on track to recover 5-6 Bcf of natural gas in the first 3 years on production.

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”), the leading 10 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania can be found. EQT, the number 1, saw the largest relative and absolute fall in output this year, to below 3 Bcf/d in June.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

Adv.18-1.png

This “Ultimate Recovery” overview reveals the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.

Finally

Later this week we will have a post on the Haynesville, followed by one on all covered states in the US next week.

In the coming 2 weeks, we will release a new version of ShaleProfile Analytics, called “Ultimate”! With this version, operators, service companies, mineral owners, financial analysts and traders can easily have access to production forecasts, understand the economics of the wells they are interested in, simulate future tight oil & gas output and analyze the impact of well spacing. Contact us for more information: Contact us

Over the weekend we got into some discussion about well performance in Midland Basin: https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19168&mn=286532&pt=msg&mid=21049668

A recent article from Enverus seemed to indicate that the average 2014 well in the Central part of this play has so far recovered around 75 bbl per lateral foot, a number far higher than what we see in the data (~27 bbl). Who is correct? Place your comments (or bets!) here below for discussion and we will gladly spend effort in figuring out this discrepancy.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/2CSeIXg

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