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About this blog

Visualizing US shale oil & gas production

The blog contains still images from interactive dashboards available on each blog post.
To follow the instructions detailed in every post, use the interactive dashboards. You can also explore the dashboards to uncover different insights and trends.

Entries in this blog

North Dakota – update through March 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,597 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota rose by 4% in March m-o-m to 1.39 million bo/d, just below the record high in January (1.4 million bo/d). Natural gas production was even up by 6.5%, reaching 2.8 Bcf/d, a new all-time high. As is shown in the chart above, the 13 thousand horizontal wells that started production before 2018 contributed only half of the oil production in March (everything below the light blue area). Five to six years ago it used to take a well about 5 years to recover 200 thousand barrels of oil, as you’ll find in the bottom chart in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells are capable of reaching this level in just 15 months. However, initial declines are steeper nowadays. After about 2 years on production, these new wells decline to production rates not far above those of older vintages, on average (see the top chart in that dashboard). The final tab reveals the production and location of the 5 leading operators. Hess just surpassed Whiting as the 2nd largest producer, far behind Continental Resources. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here it is easy to see that initial well productivity has improved almost every year since 2010. However, as noted last time, older vintages (2008-2011) appear to hold up a little better than later wells. This holds true even after excluding wells that have been refrac’ed (which is possible in our subscription services). The following screenshot, taken from our analytics service, shows the output from the 7 largest fields in North Dakota. On the map, the locations of the wells in these fields are plotted. Recently, production in Banks and Reunion Bay has jumped higher, surpassing the record output of the 2 fields where unconventional production really started in North Dakota; the Sanish and Parshall fields. Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which also released March production data recently. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VQp3vo Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

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US - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 102,269 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through January 2019. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.6 Gbo and 113 Tcf. Ohio and West Virginia are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January production from these wells was at a similar level as a month earlier, with about 6.6 million bo/d (after revisions). The Permian has been responsible for most of the growth in the past 2 years. If you exclude this basin (using the “Basin” filter at the bottom), you will see that combined production in the other basins only surpassed the 2014 peak in December. The “Well quality tab” reveals that average well productivity in the major tight oil basins increased again in 2018, but only slightly. Also in this regard did the Permian have a positive impact; if you deselect this basin, you’ll note that the improvement is even smaller without it. The final tab lists the top 5 operators in these basins. EOG increased its output by almost 50% in the past 2 years, and is now close to 600 thousand bo/d of operated capacity. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. Average peak rates have again increased in 2018 (636 bo/d vs. 567 bo/d in 2017). If you switch Product to “gas”, you’ll see the natural gas production profiles for these same wells, most of it associated with oil production. These profiles have also improved a lot in recent years; the almost 8,000 horizontal wells that started in 2017 are on a trajectory to recover over 1 Bcf of natural gas each, on average. Of course, there are major differences between and within these basins. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release March production data by the end of this week. In our subscription services, you will always find the most recent data, as we process many of our data sources on a daily basis. For most states, we already have February or even March (Wyoming and Montana) production data. Even with the $52/month Analyst subscription you can already access this data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2JI4Qka Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 20,021 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards The chart above shows the massive growth in Permian production, as well as the underlying decline. Preliminary oil production for January came in at 3.1 million bo/d, which after revisions will be closer to 3.5 million bo/d. That means that all the wells that started before 2018 only contributed 1/3rd of total production in January. Natural gas production, most of it associated with the production of oil, has also risen strongly. It is now well over 10 Bcf/d, placing the Permian above the Haynesville and the Utica, both in absolute numbers, and production growth. The “Well quality” tab shows the production profiles of these 20 thousand horizontal wells. They are grouped and averaged by the year in which production began. Although activity has steeply increased, there has not been a negative impact on well performance so far. The ~5 thousand horizontal wells that started in 2018 peaked at a rate of 730 bo/d, more than 100 bo/d higher than the wells that began in the previous year. Still, after the rapid improvements in performance in the years up to 2016, a slowdown is apparent. The final tab gives an overview of the 5 largest operators. Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho are now both above 250 thousand bo/d. Occidental and Anadarko are also in this list. Occidental recently made a higher bid than Chevron in the scramble for Anadarko’s assets. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also illustrates the steadily increasing well performance in the Permian, as the curves are trending to gradually higher recoveries. The 2,247 horizontal wells that began in 2016, represented by the light brown curve, recovered 182 thousand barrels of oil in their first 2 years on production. They are on a trajectory to recover close to 400,000 barrels of oil, before they decline to a level of 20 bo/d. Early next week we will have a post on all covered states in the US. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VpW5Cm Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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Haynesville - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas production data from 5,059 horizontal wells in the Haynesville, that have started producing since 2009/2010, through January 2019. The post on the Permian has been delayed to later this week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in the Haynesville rose by more than 2 Bcf/d in 2018 to well over 8 Bcf/d, which was the strongest growth since 2012, breaking the previous record set 6 years earlier. The apparent drop in the last 2 months visible is due to missing production data from new wells, which will become available over time. The main reason behind this fast growth is that about 30% more wells were completed in 2018 than in the previous year. Well productivity made substantial jump in 2016 (see “Well quality”), followed by a small one in 2017, but did not improve further in 2018, based on preliminary data. New wells are on a path to recover close to 6 Bcf in the first 2 years, on average, a level that earlier wells are unlikely to reach in their lifetime. Proppant loadings have increased the most in this basin, over the last couple of years. On average, well above 20 million pounds of proppants were injected into wells completed in 2018, versus less than 5 million pounds in 2012. The final tab shows the production and location of the top 5 operators, including Chesapeake and Indigo, both operating over 1 Bcf/d.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between production rates, and cumulative recovery, over time. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. This chart also shows the major improvement in well productivity. Newer wells peak at double the rate than wells from a couple of years ago, and their initial decline is less steep. However, also these more recent wells appear to follow a similar decline after this initial period, based on preliminary data. This is more visible if you change the “Show wells by” selection to ‘quarter of first flow’, which displays more granular and recent data. Later this week we will have a post on the Permian. Today at noon (EST) we will present a briefing on all the major gas basins in the US, in our ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Eagle Ford - update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,309 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that have started producing since 2008, through January 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards January oil production came in at 1,24 million bo/d, maintaining the same level as a year earlier. However, after revisions, it will end up closer to the 1.3 million bo/d that was produced a month earlier. You will find the production profiles of these wells in the “Well quality” tab, where the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk formations have been preselected. Well productivity has improved each year since 2010, on average, but only very slightly in 2018. Recent wells peak at a rate of just over 600 bo/d, and, if they keep following the path of their predecessors, will fall to 20 bo/d after about 6 years on production. The final tab, “Top operators”, displays the production and location of the 5 largest oil producers. They all started 2019 below their highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview reveals the relationship between production rates and cumulative production. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The 4.5 thousand horizontal wells that began production in 2014, the busiest year so far, have recovered an average of 150 thousand barrels of oil, after a little over 4 years on production. During this time, they declined from 382 bo/d in their peak month, to 29 bo/d (93% decline). The following image was taken from a dashboard in ShaleProfile Analytics (Professional):   Here you can see the production from the top 8 oil-producing counties in the Eagle Ford (click on the image for a high-resolution version). It shows that most counties in the Eagle Ford are well off their peak production, but Karnes is still close. In contrast, activity in Burleson County, further to the northeast, has been picking up, albeit from a small base. Early next week we will have a new post on the Permian, followed by one on the Haynesville. On Tuesday, at noon EST, we will host another show on the ShaleProfile channel at enelyst. This time we will take a closer look at the major shale gas basins in the US. I hope to see you there!   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2LhTKVi   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through February 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,788 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through February 2019. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Gas production in Pennsylvania fell by 1% m-o-m to 18.1 Bcf/d, after setting a new record in January. Compared with a year earlier, this was just over 2 Bcf/d higher. An important reason behind the recent highs is that well productivity has continued to improve, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The 748 wells that started in 2017 are on a path to recover more than 4 Bcf in the first 2 years on production, on average, more than double the amount that was recovered by wells that started 5 years earlier. As in many basins, proppant loadings have increased significantly in the past few years. In 2012 wells were completed with about 4.3 million pounds of proppants, on average. By the end of last year, this number was close to 18 million pounds. Almost all leading operators started the year with record production (“Top operators”). EQT, which bought Rice Energy, is the largest producer with 3.5 Bcf/d of production in February. However, as both entities are still reported separately, it now comes 4th in the ranking. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain year. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that newer wells are on a trajectory to recover more than 10 Bcf on average, before they have declined to a level of 100 Mcf/d. If you group the wells by quarter (using the “Show wells by” selection), the wells are sorted and averaged by quarter instead, which allows you to see more granularity and recent data. It also reveals that the 195 wells that started in Pennsylvania in the 4th quarter last year had a remarkably good start, recovering 1 Bcf on average in the first 3 months on production. We were happy to see that Trent Jacobs, from the JPT, wrote an excellent article about the other major shale gas basin, the Haynesville, last week, and that he used our analytics service for that: New Operators, Well Designs Drive Record Gas Production in Haynesville. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by updates on the Permian and the Haynesville Basin next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2J1aQnD   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through February 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,527 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through February. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota fell in February by 5% m-o-m to 1.34 million bo/d. As is common in the winter months, few new wells started production (64), and more wells were shut-in. Gas production also saw a drop, but the gas oil ratio continued to rise; now 2 Mcf of natural gas is produced with every barrel of oil. Seven years ago this was only 1 Mcf per barrel. Initial well performance increased again in 2018, on average, but by a smaller amount than in the previous three years (see the “Well quality” tab). All 5 leading operators in North Dakota saw a decline in production m-o-m (“Top operators”), but they were still up y-o-y, with the exception of ConocoPhillips. This operator reduced output by 20% in February.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. So far the 271 wells that started in Q3 2017, represented by the light green curve, had the best initial performance. These wells peaked at 719 bo/d, and after 1.5 years on production they recovered 219 thousand barrels of oil, on average. Currently they are producing at a rate of 175 bo/d. Although the wells that began production between 2008 and 2011 had a less impressive start than more recent wells, on average, they also had a smaller decline rate. It appears that they will beat at least some of the later vintages in ultimate recovery, even if you correct for the fact that some of these wells have been refractured.   Early next week we will have a post on gas production in Pennsylvania, which has also released February production data some time ago. Of course, this data has already been available in our subscription services a day after it was published. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2IQ9ps0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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Niobrara (CO & WY) - update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 10,287 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through January. Originally I planned to do a post on the latest data for North Dakota (through February). Unfortunately, not all data that we rely on has been published yet, which is why I decided to do a post on Colorado & Wyoming instead. The update on North Dakota should follow early next week. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in these 2 states started the year at record production (after revisions), at over 620 thousand bo/d. Both states contributed to growth in the past 12 months; Colorado with ~20%, and Wyoming even at almost 50% (although from a lower base). Production in the Powder River Basin has been mostly responsible for the latter, and is now over 120 thousand bo/d. As is shown in the bottom plot on the ‘Well quality’ tab, well productivity made a big jump in 2017, but has not further increased in 2018, based on preliminary data. The big news in the past week was that Chevron bought Anadarko for 32 billion dollar, which is the biggest producer in this area (see “Top operators”). With ~100 thousand bo/d production here, this area represents about 40% of its total oil production from horizontal wells in the US, with almost all of it coming out of Weld County (CO). The following dashboard, from our analytics service (Professional), shows the location and performance of the ~1,300 horizontal wells that Anadarko currently operates in Weld County, which came online between 2013 and 2017 (click the image to see the high-resolution version). In the top-right corner you will find the performance of these wells, by year, in the familiar flow-rate versus cumulative production plot. The 2014 vintage may end up with the best average recovery, as its newer wells appear to decline more rapidly. This area is very gassy, as you can see on the map, and in the gas oil ratio plot on the bottom-right.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Also here you can see that well performance appears to have peaked (at least temporarily) in early 2017, with newer wells on a slightly lower ultimate recovery trajectory. I performed a comparison of well productivity in the DJ Basin versus the Powder River Basin. The result is presented here in the following screenshot (again from our analytics service), where I’ve selected all the wells in these 2 areas, that began production between 2015 and 2017. In both basins did well productivity increase over these 3 years, but the wells in the Powder River Basin are clearly on a path to a larger oil recovery. More gas is recovered in the DJ Basin. We were again happy to find the WSJ using our subscription service to get insights into tight oil & gas production trends: Frackers, Chasing Fast Oil Output, Are on a Treadmill. As mentioned, we should have a new post on North Dakota early next week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2G9Hf9S   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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US - update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 101,165 horizontal wells in 11 US states, through December 2018. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.4 Gbo and 112 Tcf. West Virginia is deselected in most dashboards, as it has a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Utah, where the Uinta Basin is located, is for the first time included in this update. December production from these ~100 thousand horizontal wells was above 6.5 million bo/d, a y-o-y growth of 1.3 million bo/d (after revisions). This was a similar growth rate as a year earlier. Natural gas production increased to ~60 Bcf/d, growing by about 10 Bcf/d during the year, which also matched the growth in the previous year. The production profiles for these wells can be seen in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where the oil basins are preselected. The average peak production rate grew by 12% in 2018 (635 bo/d vs 565 bo/d). If you group the wells by the quarter in which they began production (using the “Show wells by” selection), you will find that this increase in peak production rate continued throughout 2018. The final tab lists the top operators in these basins. EOG was far in the lead in December, followed by ConocoPhillips, Pioneer Natural Resources and Concho, which are basically sharing the 2nd spot. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. The ~1,400 horizontal wells that started producing in the first quarter of 2012, peaked at a rate close to 300 bo/d, have now declined to 20 bo/d, and recovered 150 thousand barrels of oil in the process. The ~1,400 wells that began production 4 years later (Q1 2016), peaked at a rate roughly 50% higher, and are also on track to recover about 50% more oil, before they have fallen to 20 bo/d. A major question now is whether this relationship between initial production, and ultimate recovery will hold up with ever more “child” wells being drilled. Unlike their “parent” wells, they do have nearby producing wells. We will explore this question in more detail in the coming months. If you have questions that cannot be answered by the interactive presentations here, schedule a free demo with us here, or request a 10-day trial. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release February production data by the end of this week.   Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2G9Hf9S   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Eagle Ford - update through December 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,067 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards December oil production, close to 1.3 million bo/d, barely changed y-o-y. Just over 1,800 new horizontal wells were able to counter the ~45% decline in legacy production in 2018. Gas production hovered last year just below 6 Bcf/d. Initial well performance in the 2 main formations (Eagle Ford & Austin Chalk) was basically unchanged in 2018, as the bottom graph in ‘Well quality’ tab reveals. The over 3,500 horizontal wells that started since 2017 are on a path to recover 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production, on average, in addition to about 0.7 Bcf of natural gas. The leading operator in this basin, EOG, has been increasing output throughout 2018, and exited the year at twice the rate than the number 2, ConocoPhillips (see “Top operators”).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. You can see here that the bulk of the wells that began production since 2011 are going to recover on average between 150 and 200 thousand barrels of oil, before hitting a production rate of 10 bo/d. This does however also include a significant number of gas wells. Filtering on well type (oil/gas) is a subscriber-only feature. The 4th tab ranks operators by the average cumulative oil production in the first 2 years. Of the larger operators (>100 operated horizontal wells), Devon, ConocoPhillips and Encana are showing the best results according to this metric. If you missed our briefing on all the major tight oil basins on enelyst last Tuesday, you can still read the full update by entering our channel here: ShaleProfile channel on enelyst. Registering is free: enelyst registration page. Early next week we will have a post on all the 11 states that we publicly cover in the US (Oklahoma is currently for subscribers only).   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HZjpQa   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
Facebook: ShaleProfile

Permian – update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 19,523 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards December oil production came in at around 3.1 million bo/d (after revisions), 1 million bo/d higher than a year earlier. Close to 4,400 horizontal wells were completed in 2018, 23% more than in 2017. As is represented by the blue area in December 2018, about 2/3rd of December production came from wells that began production in 2018. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you’ll find that natural gas production increased to almost 10 Bcf/d, which is even more than is produced in the Haynesville Basin. The final tab shows the production histories of the 5 largest operators of horizontal wells. They all have strongly increased output in the past 2 years, and are at or near production highs. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. The wells that started in Q2 2016 (dark brown curve) have now recovered the most oil, with just over 200,000 barrels of oil produced on average. Newer wells are on a slightly higher trajectory. In the 2nd tab you’ll find all counties in the Permian, ranked by cumulative production, from horizontal wells since 2008. Reeves has taken over the 1st spot from Lea County, with 340 million barrels of oil cumulative production. Close to half a million barrels of oil per day were produced in Reeves in December. Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford, followed by an update on all covered states in the US early next week.   Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2I0WJhy   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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Utah – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 424 horizontal wells in Utah that started production since 2008, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard We’ve just included Utah in our coverage of horizontal drilling in the U.S., bringing the total number of covered states to 12. These 12 states are responsible for 99% of recent horizontal drilling activity based on the Baker Hughes horizontal rig count. Although the absolute amount of oil & gas produced in this state is relatively is low, compared with the other basins you’ve read about here, the growth rate has been pretty high in the past 2 years. Oil production from horizontal wells was 33 thousand bo/d in January this year, while it was only 14 thousand bo/d 2 years earlier. Activity during this period has been concentrated in Duchesne and Uintah County, heart of the Uinta Basin.   This growth coincided with a major increase in well productivity, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ overview. New wells recover on average 130 thousand barrels of oil in the first year on production, more than double the amount from wells that began production before 2016.   The final tab shows the top operators in this state. Newfield, the leading operator, has just been acquired by Calgary-based Encana. It has always been the most active player here. The number 2, Crescent Point Energy, showed a big increase in production in 2017. It also has its HQ in Calgary.   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. Also here the major increase in well productivity since 2016 is visible. Newer wells are on a path to recover about 300 thousand barrels of oil before hitting a level of 10 bo/d. Of course there are also major differences here between the operators. If you only select Axia Energy, using the “Operator” selection, you’ll find that its wells are far above average.   It therefore clearly ranks as the best performing operator (see the 4th tab, ‘Productivity ranking’), as measured for example by the average amount of oil recovered in the first year. But the best 2 wells so far are operated by Wesco Operating, as you’ll find in the 2nd tab (‘Cumulative production ranking’). They recovered each close to 1 million barrels of oil so far. We will from now on include Utah in the monthly US post.   Next week we plan to have updates on the Permian and the Eagle Ford. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2Wnnelk   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
Linkedin: ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through January 2019

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,747 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Gas production in Pennsylvania started this year at a record 18.3 Bcf/d, with a y-o-y growth of 2.5 Bcf/d (16%).   In 2018 10% more wells began production compared with the year before (828 vs. 748) and, as you can find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, they peaked at a 16% higher rate (11,900 Mcf/d vs. 10,300 Mcf/d), on average.   The 2 largest natural gas producers in the state, Cabot and Chesapeake, started the year both with a new production record (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a certain quarter. The 195 horizontal wells that came online in Q4 2018 (blue curve at the top) peaked at the highest rate ever, 13,700 Mcf/d, which was also double the peak rate of the wells that started 5 years earlier (Q4 2013). Those 372 wells have now recovered 4.6 Bcf of natural gas each and they are still flowing at 1,200 Mcf/d, on average.   In the 4th tab operators are ranked by their average well productivity, as measured by the cumulative gas production in the first year on production. Cabot, which is active in a very prolific area in Susquehanna County, comes out on top, with an average result of 3.3 Bcf in the first year. If you only select 2017 (using the “first production year” selection), this result further increases to almost 5 Bcf.   Later this week we plan to have a post on a new state! Next week, we’ll show again the latest production data for the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HT6oa6   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through January 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,469 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through January. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard January oil production in North Dakota was unchanged from the month before, at 1.4 million barrels of oil per day. In January, which is typically a slow month, just 85 wells started production. The growth in natural gas production has been steeper in the past few years. Compared with January 2015, natural gas production rose by 88%, versus 18% for oil. The reason for this is that almost all wells experience a rising gas oil ratio, and even stronger for newer wells.   In the ‘Well quality’ tab, you’ll find the production profiles for all these wells. After several years of improving initial well productivity, the 2018 vintage eked out another small gain.   All 5 leading operators in North Dakota started the year at a higher production level than a year earlier (“Top operators”). Continental Resources was the first operator in the history of the state to reach 200 thousand barrels of oil production capacity in January. It doubled its output in the past 2 years. From our analytics service (Professional), we can see how Continental Resources has changed its completion practices in the last couple of years:   In this dashboard we can see that Continental Resources did not change the length of its laterals by much since 2013 (yellow curve), but it did almost quadruple the amount of proppant used, from 3 million pounds per completion in 2013, to 12 million pounds in 2017/2018 (shown by the pink curve). The impact that this had on the amount of oil recovered in the first 12 months is shown in the plots on the right side; the bottom plot shows the same information, but now normalized by lateral length (1,000 feet).   The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The almost 1,800 horizontal wells that started in 2012 have now recovered just above 200 thousand barrels, and are now producing at a rate of 40 bo/d, on average. The 971 wells that started 5 years later (2017) are, with an average recovery of 175 thousand barrels of oil after 14 months on production, not far behind, and they are still operating at a rate of 227 bo/d.   Early next week we will have an update on gas production in Pennsylvania, which just released January production data as well (already available in our subscription services!). It just set another record at over 18 Bcf/d.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ueHidA   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US - update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 99,579 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through November 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 10.1 Gbo and 109 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Oklahoma is for now only available in our subscription services. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard November oil production from these wells will come in at close to 6.5 million bo/d, after upcoming revisions. The number of well completions in 2018 through November was more than 20% higher, compared with the same period a year earlier.   The production profiles for all these wells can be found in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The major oil basins are selected and the performance is averaged for all the wells that started in a particular year. Well productivity clearly rose every year since 2011, with again a minor improvement in 2018.   The total oil & gas production from the 5 largest operators can be viewed in the final tab. EOG produced in November almost double the amount of oil as the number 2, ConocoPhillips. They all significantly increased production in 2018. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. As the curves on this plot demonstrate, the decline behavior of these wells is typically quite predictable. By extrapolating them until a certain economic limit, you can make a reasonable estimate of ultimate recovery. You can also do so for your favorite operator, and/or basin, just by selecting them using the filters. The 5,338 wells that started in 2016 recovered just over 150 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production, on average, as well as 0.5 Bcf of natural gas (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see that). This constitutes a decline of ~82% in these 2 years (from 516 bo/d to 93 bo/d). We are happy to see that The Wall Street Journal has also started to use our services, with this article (behind a paywall): Chevron, Exxon Mobil Tighten Their Grip on Fracking.   Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will soon release January production data. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2F6dk1B Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 22,019 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in the Eagle Ford during 2018 stayed within a few percents of the 1.3 million bo/d level set in December 2017, and I expect that to hold also after upcoming upward revisions. Through November, operators completed 10% more wells than in the same period in 2017.   Well productivity hasn’t changed much in the past year, as you can easily see in the bottom graph of the ‘Well quality’ tab.   All leading operators were off their peak production in November (see ‘Top operators’), although EOG & ConocoPhillips only marginally so. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. So far most oil has been recovered by the 4,465 wells that started in 2014; they are now at 155 thousand barrels of oil and at a flow rate of 31 bo/d, on average. Newer wells are on a path to recover about 30 thousand barrels of oil more once they hit the same level. We have seen quite some interest in the Austin Chalk formation in this area. Production is increasing, although from a small base. This screenshot, from our advanced analytics service, compares the performance of wells in the Austin Chalk and the Eagle Ford, for the 2015-2017 vintages, with only oil wells selected.   Clearly, recent Austin Chalk wells are outperforming those in the Eagle Ford. Early next week we will have a post covering data from 10 states in the US.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2VChWlm   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through November 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 19,047 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard November oil production came in above 3 million bo/d (after revisions), at a y-o-y growth rate of 1 million bo/d. More than 4,200 horizontal wells were completed in 2018 through November, double the number in the same period in 2016.   Average well productivity has only increased slightly since 2016, after big gains in the years before, as the ‘Well quality’ tab shows.   The 2 largest producers, Pioneer Natural Resources & Concho Resources, are now above 250 thousand bo/d of operated capacity (see “Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started. If you extrapolate these curves, you’ll find that recent wells (2016/2017) are on a path to recover on average about 300 thousand barrels of oil, before their production rate has fallen to 40 bo/d. Associated gas production is high in the Permian, at well over 9 Bcf/d. If you switch ‘Product’ to gas, you can find the average gas production for the same wells. Newer wells are on average likely to recover 1.5 Bcf of natural gas or more.   Today (Tuesday) at noon (EST) we will also present an update on the Permian and the Eagle Ford on enelyst, where we will share our insights in these basins based on the latest data. Last month many of you subscribed to our analytics service, which offers access to more dashboards, well data, and more recent production data. Thank you! The cheapest subscription version, Analyst, costs just $52/month per user, and you can try it for 1 month for only $19. With this, you will experience some of the analytical power of ShaleProfile Analytics.   Later this week we will have a post on the Eagle Ford. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HgILaR   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through December 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,706 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Gas production in Pennsylvania ended last year at over 18 Bcf/d, with a y-o-y growth rate of 2 Bcf/d. This was the result of the addition of 6.8 Bcf/d from the just over 800 horizontal wells that started production in 2018, minus the 4.8 Bcf/d decline from legacy wells. Such a large contribution from new wells (6.8 Bcf/d in a year) has not been seen before in Pennsylvania. A major factor behind this result is the increase in well stimulation. Newer wells are completed with over 18 million pounds of proppant on average per well, versus less than 14 million pounds per well in 2017. In our ShaleProfile Analytics service, you can analyze this by operator, or even by well.   Initial well productivity improved again in 2018, as you’ll find in the top chart in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The bottom chart shows that wells that started production in 2017 are on a path to recover 4 Bcf of natural gas in the first 2 years on production. The 2018 vintage has even a slightly better start.   The 5 largest natural gas producers in Pennsylvania produced each more than 1.5 Bcf/d at the end of 2018. Cabot is in the lead, with 2.7 Bcf/d of operated output. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain year. The 1,188 horizontal wells that started production in 2014 have on average recovered most natural gas, at just over 4 Bcf. They also appear to be on a path to recover more than the wells from the following 2 years. But the wells that have started production since 2017 clearly have a better start, peaking at over 10,000 Mcf/d on average.   In the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’), you’ll find in more detail how well performance has changed over time. If you change the metric to measure the cumulative gas production in the first 3 months (instead of 24 months), you’ll note that, according to this metric, well productivity has more than tripled in the past 8 years. Newer wells recover on average 0.9 Bcf in the first 3 (calendar) months on production. For wells in Susquehanna County, this is even above 1.5 Bcf (use the ‘County’ selection to filter on this county). By the middle of next week, we will have a new post on the Permian. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2ExomN0   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through December 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,383 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through December. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in North Dakota increased by almost 2% m-o-m to just over 1.4 million barrels of oil per day in December, after a small drop in November. In December 121 wells started production, vs. 98 in November. Although the number of wells that started production in 2018 was more than a thousand fewer than in 2014 (1,266 vs. 2,276), they contributed more production at the end of the year (630 kbo/d, vs 595 kbo/d in Dec 2014).   The reason behind this is that initial well productivity greatly increased over these years, as is shown in the ‘Well quality’ tab. The wells that started in 2018 are on a path to recover just over 170 thousand barrels of oil in the first year, while this was below 100 thousand barrels for the wells from 2014. One major difference between these 2 vintages was the amount of proppant used; 4.5 million pounds per completion in 2014, vs. 10 million pounds per completion in 2018.   All the top 5 operators are at or near record production levels (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the quarter in which production started. As you can see, the best initial performance so far came from wells that started in Q3 2017. The 271 wells that started in that quarter recovered on average 207 thousand barrels of oil in the first 16 months, and have now declined to 191 bo/d, from a peak rate of 719 bo/d. If you switch product to ‘gas’, you can find the gas production from the same wells. What is striking is that newer wells produce way more gas than older ones (I estimate up to 3 times more). As gas is not earning a lot of money in North Dakota, I advice to be aware of this when looking at production metrics in this basin that use ‘BOE’ (barrels of oil equivalent). Is this rising GOR having an impact on well productivity? On a large scale, the impact seems to be currently limited. However, in some areas well performance seems to suffer from this. As an example, find here the wells from Oasis in McKenzie County, from our analytics service. I preselected a couple of quarters, to show how well behavior has changed since 2011.   The location of these wells is shown on the map on the left. On the right side, you will find the flow rate vs. cumulative plot, and the GOR vs. cumulative plot at the bottom. It shows that the wells from Q2 2011 are on a path to recover most oil, even though the more recent wells started at a far higher peak rate. The steepening of the decline seems to correlate with the rise in GOR. As I mentioned last week, we now have data from Oklahoma in our database, which is available to all our analytics and data subscribers. I would like to make this data also available here on the blog. But because we spent a significant amount of money and time on this, I would first like to see that our customer base has grown even further. My promise to you is this; once we have added 100 more Professional (or Ultimate, once this level is available) analytics subscribers, I will include Oklahoma in our blog posts here. How can you help? Maybe you find use in the more advanced features of these services or know people who might. Please let them know about us, and hopefully we can soon share this data with you here. Thank you for supporting us! Early next week we will have an update on gas production in Pennsylvania.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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US - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from 98,450 horizontal wells in 10 US states, through October 2018. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 9.9 Gbo and 108 Tcf. West Virginia and Ohio are deselected in most dashboards, as they have a greater reporting lag. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Later this post I will be making 3 major announcements; about a new (and cheap!) analytics service, Oklahoma, and the NAPE. But first, how has shale oil production developed in the past year? You will find in the graph above that all these horizontal wells produced 6.2 million barrels of oil per day in October, which after revisions will be a few percents higher still. More than half of total oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as indicated by the dark blue area. Over 20% more wells were completed in the first 10 months 2018, compared with the same period a year earlier.   Initial well productivity increased slightly further in 2018, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab, where all the oily basins have been preselected.   All the 5 top shale producers were at, or near, production highs in October (“Top operators”). The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:   This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Peak rates have steadily moved higher over the years, as you’ll see here. In Q3 2018, the average peak rate was 668 bo/d, versus 285 bo/d 7 years earlier. Extrapolating these curves allows you to make a reasonable estimate of the ultimate recovery range. You can switch ‘Product’ to natural gas, to do the same for the gas stream of these wells. Today we have 3 major announcements to make: A new analytics subscription level is now available, ShaleProfile Analytics – Analyst, For just $52 per month you can always get access to the latest data, see the exact location of more than 100,000 horizontal wells, and their production history. Most dashboards can be viewed full-screen, and you will have more filtering options, such as between oil & gas wells. If you have been a follower of the blog, and want to stay even more informed, this may be something for you. You can try out this service for the first month for just $19. We almost lose money on this subscription, so don’t wait too long! Oklahoma is in now! Oklahoma has so far been the big missing state in our database. By having it in, we now cover around 98% of all the horizontal wells in the US. It has been a tough state to work with, as data sources are unreliable and incomplete. We have spent a big amount of effort (and $) to add it. There are still some data issues to sort out, but we believe we can already now call it at least a 90% version. There is a greater lag time for Oklahoma than for most other states; we can currently cover production data through March 2018. Try out one of our subscriptions to get access to all this data! Today the NAPE conference here in Houston will start for real. Come visit our booth (#2331) if you have the opportunity, and I’ll show you what we can do for you. Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release December data later this week. Production data is subject to revisions. For these presentations, I used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar as in Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economical Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Permian – update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 18,480 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing since 2008/2009, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production in the Permian kept rising at a rate of ~1 million bo/d y-o-y through October. I expect that after revisions total output topped 3 million bo/d. That also means that almost 60% of October oil production came from wells that started in 2018, as is visualized in the graph above. Gas production has seen a very similar growth path, and is now over 9 Bcf/d (switch ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Despite increased completion activity, well productivity has still slightly increased since 2016, as you’ll find in the ‘Well quality’ tab. Recent wells are on a path to recover on average around 200 thousand barrels of oil in the first 2 years on production. Important factors behind this increase in well performance are longer laterals, and bigger frac jobs. The following screenshot, from our ShaleProfile Analytics service, shows that average cumulative oil production in the six months rose on both sides of the state border since 2012. Interestingly, results are on average better in New Mexico, even though laterals are shorter and proppant loadings are smaller. The final tab shows that all 5 leading operators have roughly tripled their output in the past 3 years. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. Initial well productivity has kept rising through the last quarters. The more than 1,000 wells that started in Q3 last year peaked over 800 bo/d in their first full calendar month. Let’s also take a look at the terminal decline in this basin, as we did in our last 2 posts, even though the average well age is much younger here. I again used the ‘Terminal decline’ dashboard from our Professional Analytics service. See here the result: The performance is shown of all the horizontal oil wells in the Permian, that started production between 2011 and 2014. Only wells are selected that fell below a production rate of 60 bo/d not later than May 2016 (this ensures that we have at least 30 months of data for all wells), from which they never recovered. There were 3,183 such wells, from in total 6,065 horizontal oil wells that started in the Permian in these 4 years. The top chart shows the oil production rate (logarithmic scale) of these wells, by the number of months since they fell below 60 bo/d. The wells are grouped by the year in which they started. The bottom chart shows the average annual decline, calculated based on the plot above. If you have also seen the previous 2 posts, you’ll note that terminal decline rates are lower here than in the DJ Basin & the Eagle Ford. The decline rates drop to a level between 15 and 25%, before they stabilize or start to increase again. As noted above, data after 30 months is not complete (not all wells have more historical data). Also here you’ll see that younger wells experience larger decline rates. Again I would like to emphasize that part of that is expected, as they earlier in their hyperbolic decline curve, where decline rates are naturally higher. But it still appears that even if you correct for that, younger wells decline faster. Likely there are several effects in play, such as changing economic limits & completion designs and more infill drilling. As more and more wells enter this phase, this could increase the decline rate of the whole population (e.g. a certain vintage), negatively impacting EURs and reserves. If you have any thoughts on this topic, please share them below in the comments section.   Next week we are at the NAPE summit in Houston, so if you happen to be there, please come visit our booth (#2331). We still have time available earlier in the week for 1-on-1 meetings in Houston, so please contact us if you’re interested in understanding how we might help you.   Early next week we will have a post on all 10 covered states in the US. We also plan to launch a new (cheaper!) version of our Analytics service then. Production data is subject to revisions. Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.   For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests and oil proration data. OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided. FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MR9Mme   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Eagle Ford - update through October 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 21,912 horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford region, that started producing since 2008, through October.   Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Oil production increased slightly in the Eagle Ford in 2018, as operators completed ~10% more wells than in 2017, based on preliminary data. Once revision data is in, I expect that October production will be close to 1.3 million bo/d. Gas production from these wells is good for almost 6 Bcf/d (toggle ‘Product’ to gas to see this).   Average initial well productivity almost didn’t change year-over-year, as you’ll see in the ‘Well quality’ tab. If you click there on 2018 in the legend, you’ll note that the wells that started last year are so far closely tracking the performance of the 2017 wells. Although newer wells are peaking at more than double the rate than wells that started in 2011/2012, they are also declining faster. I expect that after 2-3 years on production, they have declined to a very similar production rate as those earlier wells had at that age. That becomes especially apparent if you select for example just the wells from 2012 and 2016 (keep the ‘Ctrl’ key in when selecting both of these years), and if you change the axis to a linear scale. I’ll show you more about these decline rates later in this post.   Of the top 5 operators in the Eagle Ford, only the 2 largest (EOG & ConocoPhillips) set new production records in September, The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” overview, the relationship between production rates and cumulative production is revealed. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. I’ve preselected the Austin Chalk and Eagle Ford formations. As I showed last week for the DJ Basin, also here you can see that the decline steepens once wells have reached low levels of production. How large are the decline rates here? To answer this question, I again used our new ‘Terminal decline’ dashboard from our Professional Analytics service. See here the result:     Here the performance is shown of all the horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford, that started production between 2011 and 2014. Only wells are selected that have produced predominantly oil, and which fell below a production rate of 60 bo/d not later than Nov 2015 (this ensures that we have at least 36 months of data for all wells), from which they never recovered. There were 5,628 such wells, from in total 11,554 horizontal oil wells that started in the Eagle Ford in those 4 years. The top chart shows the oil production rate (logarithmic scale) of these wells, by the month since they fell below 60 bo/d. The wells are grouped by the year in which they started. The bottom chart shows the average annual decline of all these wells. Three observations: After annual decline rates have slightly stabilized (after month 26 or so), you can see that the annual decline is close to, or above 20%. Each year, the annual decline rate is higher. Some of this is expected, as younger wells are in an earlier part of their decline curve, where the decline is steeper. But even if you correct for that (e.g. by comparing the performance of 2 consecutive vintages shifted by 12 months), the decline rates of younger wells are higher. In particular, the wells from 2014 never really go below 25% annual decline. Once wells reach a very low production rate (~10 bo/d), the decline rate accelerates again. A special thank you to Mike Shellman for sharing a wealth of articles and oilfield knowledge regarding this topic. Next week we are at the NAPE summit in Houston, so if you happen to be there, please come visit our booth (#2331). We also still have time available earlier in the week for 1-on-1 meetings in Houston, so please contact us if you’re interested in understanding how we might help you.   Tomorrow at 10:30 (EST) we’ll also cover the Eagle Ford in our enelyst chat. Later this week, or early next week, there will be a new update on the Permian Basin.   Production data is subject to revisions, especially for the last few months. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending data reports. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2MMYWh2   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Terminal Decline Rates averaging 25-30% in Niobrara - update through October 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data, from all 9,508 horizontal wells that started production in Colorado and Wyoming since 2009/2010, through October. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in these 2 states set a new high in October, at just over 550 thousand bo/d. Gas production also came in at a record level, at close to 3 Bcf/d.   The year over year growth rate dropped however, compared with the previous year, despite that more wells were completed in the first 10 months of 2018 vs 2017. More wells were needed to offset the decline from wells that came online in 2017, and well productivity also fell a little, based on preliminary data (see the ‘Well quality’ tab).   The DUC count has remained steady in the past year, as you’ll see in the ‘Well status’ dashboard if you only select the DUCs (using the well status selection on the top).   Anadarko, the largest producer in this area, showed a drop in production in the previous 12 months. The numbers 2 to 4 (Noble Energy, Extraction Oil & Gas, and PDC) did break their previous records in October. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: In this “Ultimate Recovery” graph, the average cumulative production is plotted against the production rate. Wells are grouped by the quarter in which production started. This time I only selected Weld County (using the ‘County’ filter at the bottom), as it is good for almost 80% of total production,  and I wanted to highlight some interesting things happening here. The first observation is that well productivity appears to have fallen since 2016 Q4/2017 Q1, as wells from later quarters are trending towards slightly lower ultimate recoveries. The second, and probably more important one, is about the terminal decline rates that you can see here. As you follow these curves from wells that started between 2011 and 2015, you’ll see that they start to accelerate downward as lower production levels are reached. You’ll see the same effect if you select the natural gas stream from these wells (‘Product’ selection). That doesn’t bode well for long-term recovery estimates. So how big are these terminal decline rates actually? We’ve just added a new dashboard in our Professional Analytics service, which aims to answer these kind of questions. Here you will see a screenshot of this dashboard, in which all the horizontal wells in Weld County are selected, that started production since 2012. Only wells are selected that fell below a production rate of 40 bo/d, from which they never fully recovered, before November 2015.     You can see 2 graphs here. The one on the top shows the average flow rate of all the 1,354 horizontal wells that met these criteria, versus time (the number of months after they fell below 40 bo/d). The graph on the bottom plots the average terminal decline rate of all these wells. I recommend ignoring the results up to month 20 or so, due to the inherent bias of this selection. However, you can see that a relatively steady state has been reached after 24 months. Between 24 months, and 36 months, which contains data for all these wells, you will find an average annual decline rate between 25 and 30%. This, I believe, is a far higher terminal decline rate than is commonly assumed when making ultimate recovery estimates. In this dashboard, you will have many more options. For example, you can look at all the other shale basins, or at the terminal decline rate of the gas streams, or group these wells by e.g. the year in which they started to see how these terminal decline rates have changed with newer completions. Other basins didn’t show the same high terminal decline rate, but also there they were significant.   Later today in our show at enelyst, at 10:30 EST, we will take a closer look at the latest data from North Dakota, in which we will also examine some findings of this new dashboard. You can join this event here: enelyst ShaleProfile Briefings channel. If you are not an enelyst member yet, you can sign up for free at www.enelyst.com, using the code: “Shale18”   Next week we will have updates on the Eagle Ford, and also the Permian if new data for New Mexico has been released by then.   Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2sS8MF7   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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Marcellus (PA) – update through November 2018

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 8,639 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing since 2010, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards November gas production showed another big gain, as more than 0.3 Bcf/d was added. Total gas production for the month was 18 Bcf/d, 16% higher than a year ago. The 759 wells that started production in 2018 contributed 6.5 Bcf/d to the November numbers, or 36%. This is typically a far higher percentage in the oil basins, as you can see in our other posts, which is mostly caused by a steeper decline of oil versus gas.   The production profiles of all these wells can be found in the 2nd tab (‘Well quality’). By default, they are averaged by the year in which the wells started production. The bottom plot shows the cumulative production versus time graphs, and they clearly reveal how each year well productivity improved. One main driver has been the increase in reservoir stimulation; wells in 2018 were completed with almost 17 million pounds of proppant, on average, while this was only 4 million pounds six years earlier.   The 2 largest gas operators, Cabot and Chesapeake, both increased their output in November, as you’ll find in the final tab (‘Top operators’). Cabot almost exclusively operates in Susquehanna County, where the best well results can be found. There it is responsible for over 60% of the gas produced. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate Return” overview shows the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that came online in a certain quarter. The 348 wells that started in Q4 2013 have each recovered 4.6 Bcf of natural gas, and they are still producing at 1.3 MMcf/d, on average. Newer wells appear so far to be on a trajectory to do well above those numbers.   That well productivity has rapidly grown over time is also visible in the 5th tab (‘Productivity over time’). The average cumulative production in the first 2 years is plotted there, and based on this metric performance doubled in just a couple of years.   Early next week we’ll be back with a post on the Niobrara. If you don’t like to wait to get access to the latest data, I have good news for you. In just 1 or 2 weeks, we’ll be launching a new subscription level (‘Basic’), for which you can get access to our analytics platform for a very low fee ($52 per user / month). No need to install anything, full-screen dashboards, maps with all individual horizontal wells plotted, more filtering options and much more.   We’ll be in Houston in the 2nd week of February, for the NAPE summit. Come visit our booth, or contact us if you like to meet us during that week. Production data is subject to revisions. For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2HEHe02   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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North Dakota – update through November 2018

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 14,263 horizontal wells in North Dakota that started production since 2005, through November. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboards Oil production in North Dakota dropped 1% m-o-m to 1,376 kbo/d in November, after a record output in October. The main factor behind this drop appears to be the smaller number of wells that went into production in October (119) and November (108), after a busy summer (~140 completions per month).   The 2nd tab (“Well quality”) shows that the wells that came online in 2018 perform slightly better on average than the ones from the year before.   Each of the 5 largest operators produces over 100 thousand barrels of oil per day (gross) in this state (“Top operators”), and all of them increased output in 2018. Together they are responsible for over 40% of all oil produced in November. The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below: This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows how all these horizontal wells are heading towards their ultimate recovery, with wells grouped by the year in which production started. The graph shows clear improvements in initial well productivity over the last couple of years. Interesting is however also that wells from the 2008-2011 period decline slightly slower than those from 2012-2015. This effect remains even after correcting for refracs (which is possible in our advanced analytics service).   The gas/oil ratio (GOR) has steadily climbed in North Dakota, as is depicted by the orange curve in the bottom graph on the 9th tab (“Gas oil ratio”). The reasons behind that are revealed in the plot above it; the GOR normally climbs over the life of a well, but newer wells are also starting with a higher GOR, and see their GOR rising faster. In the coming days we’ll have a new update on gas production in Pennsylvania, on which we will also report in our chat tomorrow morning on enelyst (10:30 am EST). For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources: DMR of North Dakota. These presentations only show the production from horizontal wells; a small amount (about 40 kbo/d) is produced from conventional vertical wells. FracFocus.org   Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight http://bit.ly/2RSy58n   Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile
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