US - update through August 2020

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Entry posted by shaleprofile · December 2, 2020

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These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 138,874 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through August. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 15.7 billion bbl and 177 Tcf of natural gas. Ohio and West Virginia are excluded from most overviews, as they have not yet reported July/August production data.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

Total production

US tight oil production made another small gain in August to almost 7.0 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions), as another 1,500 horizontal wells were returned to production. Tight gas output was flat m-o-m at 63 Bcf/d (excl. Ohio and West Virginia), down by 5 Bcf/d from the March level (68 Bcd/d).

Supply Projection dashboard

As a couple of hundred more wells resumed production in September, we expect to see a tiny gain in oil production for that month, probably the last one for several months to come as the over 50% decline in drilling activity will start to kick in again.

Still, the outlook is better than last month, as 281 rigs were drilling horizontal wells last week (according to the Baker Hughes rig count). This is not enough to sustain current output, but it is an increase of almost 30 compared with a month ago (252):

Tight oil outlook at current drilling activity and well/rig productivity

The screenshot above was taken from our Supply Projection dashboard, which is also available in the Ultimate version of ShaleProfile Analytics. Assuming no changes in rig count and productivity (both unrealistic), we project that tight oil supply will fall to close to 5 million bo/d in two years time.

Top operators

The 10 largest operators are visualized in the last overview (“Top operators”). Exxon Mobil was the only one among these with an output in August close to its historical high.

Permitting activity

I am happy to announce that we have a new dashboard in our ShaleProfile Analytics service (Professional and higher), in which permitting activity related to horizontal wells can be easily understood:

Permitting activity (hz wells) in Texas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and North Dakota

It is a real-time service which is updated several times a day with the latest permitting data. Ideal if you want to know how many permits are being issued, where exactly, and by whom. Currently 4 states are covered (Texas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and North Dakota), together good for about 80% of the US total. Other states will be added in the coming weeks.

Advanced Insights

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This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started.

Finally

Next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which will release October production data in the coming days.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below.

FracFocus.org
Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission
Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories.
Montana Board of Oil and Gas
New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission
North Dakota Department of Natural Resources
Ohio Department of Natural Resources
Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division
Oklahoma Tax Commission
Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data.
Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining
Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah.
West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection
West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey
Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission