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Pennsylvania – update through November 2020

These interactive presentations contain the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 9,944 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through November.

PA4632-1.png

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

Total production

Pennsylvanian natural gas production jumped in November (as it often does) and set a new record at almost exactly 20 Bcf/d. The previous high was a year earlier in November 2019 at 19.6 Bcf/d. As is visualized in the chart above, almost half of this output in November was produced from wells that came online in the past 2 years (dark & light blue colors).

Supply Projection dashboard

The horizontal rig count was down to 17 as of last week (source: Baker Hughes rig count). The last time it was lower for more than a week was in 2016. Although well productivity is up by a bit (see next section), this level of drilling activity will not be enough to sustain current output:

PA-Supply-Projection-1024x530.png

Natural gas outlook in Pennsylvania, based on current drilling activity and productivity (hz wells only)

This image was taken from our publicly available Supply Projection dashboard. Note that the version that allows one to change several parameters such as the future rig count is now only available in our subscription service.

Well productivity

Average well productivity has again improved in 2020, as visualized in the “Well quality” tab. The wells that came online last year are on track to recover about 5 Bcf of natural gas in the first 2 years.

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”), the top 8 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania can be found. All these operators were at or near their production records.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

Adv.-4.png

This “Ultimate Recovery” overview reveals the relationship between gas production rates and cumulative gas production, averaged for all horizontal wells that began production in a particular year.

If you group the data by quarter, you will see more recent data; note that probably some high-grading took place in Q2/Q3 last year, as there was a jump in performance with the smaller number of completions.

Finally

Almost exactly 5 years ago, we published our first blog post on North Dakota, which is still available here.

We were happy to see that the Wall Street Journal has been using our new Permit activity dashboard in this story from yesterday, regarding the ban on new drilling permits on federal lands: Biden’s Order to Freeze New Oil Drilling on Federal Land: What You Need to Know. They noticed a steep increase in permitting activity last year, probably in preparation for this ban.

Early next week we will have a post on all covered states in the US.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection
  • FracFocus.org

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/2NyT6nN

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