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Permian – update through October 2019

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 24,837 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through October 2019.


Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

Oil production rose in October, to around 3.8 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). As is visualized in the graph above, the over 4,000 horizontal wells that came online in the first 10 months of 2019 contributed more than half of the oil output in October (and over 75% if you include the 2018 vintage as well).

Well productivity edged higher in 2019, which you can view in the “Well quality” tab. But this does not take into account that laterals also got longer, as explained in the previous post on this basin. In the Delaware Basin, where laterals increased by almost 50% between 2016 and 2019, well results are lower since 2016, on a normalized basis (image taken from our advanced analytics service


Normalized well productivity in the Delaware Basin. Horizontal oil wells since 2013 only.

In the final tab, all the major operators in the Permian can be found. Anadarko (not on the list) is not yet included in the Occidental numbers. Exxon Mobil is now also in the list; it has grown production even faster than its peers, as it quadrupled output since early 2018.

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:


This “Ultimate recovery” overview displays the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.

By extrapolating these curves, you can see that recently completed wells are on a trajectory to recover around 300 thousand barrels of oil before they have declined to a production rate of 40 b/d.

But not all wells are created equally. The following dashboard, taken from ShaleProfile Analytics, displays all the horizontal wells that started production since 2011. The chart on the right ranks all the counties in the Permian Basin, by the average cumulative production in the first 2 years. The map shows you the location of all these wells, colored by the same metric:


Howard and Midland county show the best results on this metric, with over 180 thousand barrels of oil produced in the first 2 years, on average.

Early next week, we will have a new post on the Eagle Ford.

The week after, we will be in Houston for the NAPE summit. If you are there as well, make sure you collect free caramel waffles at our booth #3019! Maybe you even would like to know more about our new production forecasting module?

Production and completion data are subject to revisions.

Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.

For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
  • OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
  • FracFocus.org

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/30Nh1lV

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