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OPEC in crisis

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JJ

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We where supposed to have a deal on Thursday with OPEC so what happened? If you found a good deal on a house, would you delay the closing? You would if you saw some problems with the deal.

Well what kinds of problems do we have with OPEC cutting productions and why wasn't it made today, after all the whole world is waiting.

For the prices to stop going into a free fall and hit my $34 target, they need to cut production, Saudi by about 2 Mill barrels and Russia by 300,000 barrels, or at least 200,000 barrels.

Well Russia did not have an answer today? Why? Well lets see where Russia Oil fields are? 

ת×צ×ת ת××× × ×¢××ר âªrussian oil fieldsâ¬â

Well this looks like a very cold place, if im not mistaken it gets to -70 Celsius in the winter. Ok so whats the problem? If you live in Northern Canada, you know you need to not turn off your heat in the winter to your pipes wont freeze. Well guess what, Russia won't be able to cut production in the winter, and it will need to wait until temps are above freezing, maybe March / April 2019. 

So that means Russia wont be able to cut, so why should the Saudis cut, so they will cut im comparison with Russias cuts, which wont be enough to stop the fall of Crude Prices.

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That "we can't cut in winter" was a brilliant joke. last time they agreed to cut it was again December. Please. Sure, cutting will take place gradually but it's not like they'll be doing it for the first time. They just don't want to cut, that's all.

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OPEC cut production by 1.2 Mill Barrels. 

Here is why Crude will still fall.

Is that cut gonna start right away?

Is Russia cutting right away?

1.2 Mill Barrels is not enough to make a dent in supply.

Therefore I believe the 54.xx Price reached in Crude after the news, will be short lived, and prices could drop again below their lows.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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Oil prices have already dropped now from 54 to 53.47, it will take the oil community a while to wake up, usually there is always a delay, but once they realize the big holes in the OPEC agreement, the ones stated above, and the fact that we dont know if IRAN and others will have exception from the cuts. And the fact that Russia cant cut 200k Barrels this month or next, once the true number of the cuts come out, and people wake up, we weill go way down.

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sU

(edited)

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Edited by A/Plague

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Whenever there is news on Crude even when its fake news Crude prices go up, they are always looking for a lifeline even it is a tattered rope.

The 1.2 Mill Prod cut, I think wont be a reality. Once that sinks in, Crude prices will sink. So Saudis says they cut 800k. Fine. But the other 400k is problematic, first of all certain countries like IRAN may get an exception, and so will Russia until the winter is over. Russias 200k Prod cut, cant be a reality until March 2019, due to the severe cold in their Siberian oil fields, cutting production now would freeze their pipes.

Edited by Top Oil Trader
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It's just stuck at 53.80. Will we register any kind of major fall today or will it be next week only ?

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In Trading oil, the most important trait you can develop is Patience.

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sU

(edited)

,

Edited by A/Plague
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I am not here to prove my point. But do your research and get back to me, on where Russia oil fields are, a map of some sorts or a table would be useful, instead of just calling people a complete idiot.

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sU

(edited)

On 12/7/2018 at 9:36 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

I am not here to prove my point. But do your research and get back to me, on where Russia oil fields are, a map of some sorts or a table would be useful, instead of just calling people a complete idiot.

 

Edited by A/Plague

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Indeed the temperatures in Siberia are -40 to -70 Celsius in the winter, so thank you for proving my point.

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sU

(edited)

On 12/7/2018 at 9:51 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Indeed the temperatures in Siberia are -40 to -70 Celsius in the winter, so thank you for proving my point.

.

Edited by A/Plague
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Temperatures i posted are in Celsius, the exact number dont matter they change from year to year. When temperatures are below freezing no oil well can be shut down, otherwise the pipes will freeze. Russia will not be able to shut down any oil well until the temperatures rise, so roughly springtime. Now Saudis promissed 800k cut, Russia 200k, if Russia cant make their numbers neither will Saudi Arabia.

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sU

(edited)

On 12/8/2018 at 1:44 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Temperatures i posted are in Celsius, the exact number dont matter they change from year to year. When temperatures are below freezing no oil well can be shut down, otherwise the pipes will freeze. Russia will not be able to shut down any oil well until the temperatures rise, so roughly springtime. Now Saudis promissed 800k cut, Russia 200k, if Russia cant make their numbers neither will Saudi Arabia.

....

Edited by A/Plague

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so now i proved to you why the opec deal would not work. And it will get worse.

mid November 11/20/18 someone called me asked about a houston stock, said it dropped a lot, asked me if he should buy it. Looked at the chart the stock was at 25 cents then, spent some time on the financials told them to wait to buy it when it hit 10 cents. So far the stock is down 60% since he asked me.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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