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Blog with news stories and event that will shape the future prices of oil

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OPEC in crisis

We where supposed to have a deal on Thursday with OPEC so what happened? If you found a good deal on a house, would you delay the closing? You would if you saw some problems with the deal. Well what kinds of problems do we have with OPEC cutting productions and why wasn't it made today, after all the whole world is waiting. For the prices to stop going into a free fall and hit my $34 target, they need to cut production, Saudi by about 2 Mill barrels and Russia by 300,000 barrels, or at least 200,000 barrels. Well Russia did not have an answer today? Why? Well lets see where Russia Oil fields are?  Well this looks like a very cold place, if im not mistaken it gets to -70 Celsius in the winter. Ok so whats the problem? If you live in Northern Canada, you know you need to not turn off your heat in the winter to your pipes wont freeze. Well guess what, Russia won't be able to cut production in the winter, and it will need to wait until temps are above freezing, maybe March / April 2019.  So that means Russia wont be able to cut, so why should the Saudis cut, so they will cut im comparison with Russias cuts, which wont be enough to stop the fall of Crude Prices.

Why OPEC has little effect

The fact that Qatar will leave next month, will be a blow for OPEC. This will weaken them in their ability to enforce production cuts from all its members. Lets also remember US is investigating OPEC for price manipulation. Russia is not part of OPEC and can refuse to cut production. Shale oil is getting more efficient, selling oil at $10 under par. In Canada its now $43 under par. Bottom line is, oil prices are in a free fall. 

Quatar leaves OPEC

There has been lots of rift between the Saudis and Qatar, for quite some time. Saudi Arabia is accusing Qatar of financing terrorism. The Saudis are trying to give Qatar lots of problems, and Qatar fought back, by damaging OPEC and leaving. This will be the beginning of the unraveling of OPEC as I predict more nations to leave OPEC. This will also give OPEC less control of oil prices. Therefore any production cuts from OPEC in the future could soon become meaningless.