OPEC EXPECTED TO CUT - WHERES THE CUT FROM UNCLE SAM

[zextaz + 20]

you mean US is shall? yes mostly all shall I am not talking about major that are all over the place but USA depleted oil that aren't shall long time ago and they are depleting shall at maximum level now

[cbrasher1 + 272]

😂😂😂 @zextaz you have some bad taste on US shale? We aren't going out of business, maybe some will, but you are truly a petty little person sitting in mom's basement rooting for people to lose their jobs. You apparently have never been in the patch and know nothing about the lifestyle, and I'm not talking about the paychecks.  It's a bond you shale haters will know nothing about or ever experience, but thanks for signing up to an oil forum babbling about whatever you are rambling. Oil traders and folks the likes of you don't care what happens with oil really, but to some of it is life...

[zextaz + 20]

I am not a major oil master like you but I have lost probably more money in your USA oil exploration than you will make in your entire life and I can tell you this USA energy oil is a scam and it only help USA to ensure they have a leverage to fight against abnormal price hike in oil but the ppl that paid for this are mostly all bankrupt and I highly doubt that if a second wave occur it will come from free market unless your communist party in USA ensure that everyone have cheap oil and gas and government pump up the next generation of exploration no one will care anymore now oil generation is burned out 

[zextaz + 20]

next generation of shale will be called HMNY shale pay 30$ to have 500$ worth of gasoline and shareholder will keep paying it 

this will not happen the new generation hate oil and gas and older one are burned out so good luck if you are working in a patch 

[cbrasher1 + 272]

2 minutes ago, zextaz said:

I am not a major oil master like you but I have lost probably more money in your USA oil exploration than you will make in your entire life 

do tell...how did you lose money? stocks? investment? you ever worked in the oilfield? sounds like not if you lost money

[zextaz + 20]

never worked in oil field but a lot of investment and reinvestment and reverse split and merging all to go down to lower and lower prices oil investment is now less stable than biotech stock and biotech stock usually have potential to exploded and are really risky oil stock are just a downtrend with 0 value all risk no gain no one will care soon and the only way those business pay your paycheck is by selling oil at losses and selling shares to keep business rolling when this circle of destruction stop patch work will be out of jobs

[cbrasher1 + 272]

7 minutes ago, zextaz said:

never worked in oil field but a lot of investment and reinvestment and reverse split and merging all to go down to lower and lower prices oil investment is now less stable than biotech stock and biotech stock usually have potential to exploded and are really risky oil stock are just a downtrend with 0 value all risk no gain no one will care soon and the only way those business pay your paycheck is by selling oil at losses and selling shares to keep business rolling when this circle of destruction stop patch work will be out of jobs

because you chose bad investment options does that validate you rooting for other people to lose their jobs? some of you people....is it a perfect model? no, to much flaring? maybe, so that suits people on this forum to root for people to be out of work and hate shale, cause in reality that is what you're doing. 

[Boat + 1,324]

I keep telling you this site is Russian🤣. Looks like some of the new group need a little refining before cutting then loose. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

21 hours ago, James Regan said:

The US unfortunately are not up to date in attitude of knowledge of the affects of the virus in the USA, only now are you starting to see the doubling each day of the positive cases and this is with only testing 1500 people, I find that number akin to ostrich behavior, the cases will quadruple over night and only fuel the fear factor. 
Its coming so be prepared for what’s on the horizon. 50,000 tested in the UK and only 1500 Its beyond negligence.

Hysterical behavior is what is presently apparent over all markets, The USA is a very hysterical nation not all are as informed as I would say 100% of all on this forum. With bipartisan news freely available whom thrive on hysteria the outlook is not bright for the next few months in USA.

 

It's not hysteria.  If you sell early, you have money to buy back later.  Every trader worth their salt has stop losses.  The fact that MMs are moving their money (trillions) from stocks to bonds is a bad bad sign.  The herd is shifting and I don't fight the herd.

If it doesn't pop Monday, I'm not sticking around with my UCO position.  Anytime I take a position I expect it to make money within a few days, and if it doesn't it means I mis-timed it and need to get out.  

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, zextaz said:

USa burned down the last generation that believed that oil had a value bank stole all our investment filling up your tank on money that investor lost this is absurd unless oil goes back to 80$ a barrel fracking is dead meat for the next 6-10 years 

‘Fracking’ was alive and well long before this shale oil fiasco! This process/technology was applied to other lithologies years before it was applied to oil shale.

If you want to rant about the oil shale business, that’s fine with me...just get your facts straight.

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 3/7/2020 at 9:56 AM, Zhong Lu said:

To hell with this. Buying oil for a pop on Monday.  It's oversold and 40 should provide some sort of bounce.

I am expecting oil to be between $32-34 by end of next week. Net short positions climbing dramatically?

 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

2 hours ago, Wombat said:

I am expecting oil to be between $32-34 by end of next week. Net short positions climbing dramatically?

 

I'm starting to think so, too.  Not happy about Friday purchase.  

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 3/6/2020 at 9:48 PM, Old-Ruffneck said:

James, I agree....but I am taking a stab here and once China starts back up it's going to suck the extra 2mbd it's turning away now. I still feel the 40$ mark will be about as low as it goes, I do see as springtime here in USA consumption will slowly rise. For investors with loads of extra cash, now is time to buy. Sure it could fall slightly more but chances are it's going to go up. This virus scare will last only so long. Rig count this week is up a tad bit, that's a surprise.

@Old-Ruffneck Hate to say it, in fact I won’t it’s almost unbelievable...

[James Regan + 1,776]

18 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

It's not hysteria.  If you sell early, you have money to buy back later.  Every trader worth their salt has stop losses.  The fact that MMs are moving their money (trillions) from stocks to bonds is a bad bad sign.  The herd is shifting and I don't fight the herd.

If it doesn't pop Monday, I'm not sticking around with my UCO position.  Anytime I take a position I expect it to make money within a few days, and if it doesn't it means I mis-timed it and need to get out.  

I expect your auto get out kicked in for you???

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

Yup @James Regan, who'd a thunk shite would go this far south in a matter of 2 hour?? Staggers the mind. Does one buy now in hopes more sooner than later they get theirs minds right? A pissing match between Russia and KSA and US shale will get shut down and an extended or prolonged war on pumping at free will. Everyone loses my way of thinking. Accept the consumer... we may 1.25 a gallon gas lol.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

4 minutes ago, James Regan said:

I expect your auto get out kicked in for you???

It's UCO. I can't get out until it opens.  At this point it's not even worth it.  I'm thinking of buying now on Monday.

Thankfully it wasn't a huge position (by my standards) but it does wipe out profits from INO.  I'm back to where I was a month ago.  On the other hand, oil is a little oversold by most measures and might present an interesting opportunity either now, or soon.  Now that bad new's been mostly priced in, there's a possibility Putin might renegotiate with MBS and suddenly this comes screaming back.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[James Regan + 1,776]

Someone better get their emergency meeting shit together as I’m sure half the shale patch are having heart attacks.

Did I really believe it would drop to 30s yes but to 30 and falling no.

This will get corrected very quickly I am sure good time to get in, I would say.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

3 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Did I really believe it would drop to 30s yes but to 30 and falling no.

Now down to 30.43 WTI. By September probly be upper 50's. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I think you're right, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit $15 first. 

OPEC is essentially dismembered. Each ragtag country will try its best. But in reality, it was always the Saudi oil minister who set the tempo. Well, that person is no longer a viable participant in the world order of petroleum. 

I think this is going to be a total zoo, a circus of unimaginable proportions, but from that will come a real balance. When the Saudis are gutted and left to rot, the thing will equilibrate. 

This is on MbS, not Putin. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

21 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I think you're right, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit $15 first. 

OPEC is essentially dismembered. Each ragtag country will try its best. But in reality, it was always the Saudi oil minister who set the tempo. Well, that person is no longer a viable participant in the world order of petroleum. 

I think this is going to be a total zoo, a circus of unimaginable proportions, but from that will come a real balance. When the Saudis are gutted and left to rot, the thing will equilibrate. 

This is on MbS, not Putin. 

Be interesting to see Aramco price and how it holds out, would they really sell at 6/7$ per Bbl?

[0R0 + 6,251]

13 hours ago, Wombat said:

I am expecting oil to be between $32-34 by end of next week. Net short positions climbing dramatically?

 

We already printed $28. My technical targets were 34 and 27 and change. Expected  a crash post the news. But getting a months long technical pattern to express in two days is really something else. 

[cbrasher1 + 272]

21 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I think you're right, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit $15 first. 

OPEC is essentially dismembered. Each ragtag country will try its best. But in reality, it was always the Saudi oil minister who set the tempo. Well, that person is no longer a viable participant in the world order of petroleum. 

I think this is going to be a total zoo, a circus of unimaginable proportions, but from that will come a real balance. When the Saudis are gutted and left to rot, the thing will equilibrate. 

This is on MbS, not Putin. 

I agrer with you mostly, Russia had no real reason to agree to cuts, 1.5 mpbd when China has cut what 3+ mpbd consumption? There is no order now that opec+ had basically dismantled.  I do hope your first sentence is wrong, maybe a floor will stop at 25.  If MBS and Russia want to wage a price war, it appears the US shale will be just casualties of that.  Some companies already strained will not make it depending on the duration of this along with demand restraints caused by coronavirus.  I do hope the service companies who are going to bid on KSA shale gas venture remember these times, they are not our friends, they want US shale to die, and bid accordingly, i.e. price gouge the fak out of them!

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

James, this guy MbS is not operating on a full tank. Remember, this is the guy who allegedly had Khashoggi whacked and the world let him get by with it. 

He thinks he can do anything. This stuff is his toy-world. 

Me? I doubt that he can survive this. I mean, what kind of idiot blows up his own country to make a point?

OPEC is now in shreds. Iran is going to have to run their own deals, Iraq too, and Nigeria, for Pete's sake. And these are the most sophisticated. Well, there's the Emirates, but they've always kept their own peace. 

Putin can hold on. MbS? I don't think so. Aramco was a house of cards and the people who bought into it were coerced, for the most part. But they also held out a sliver of hope that things would revert to business as usual. Well, things didn't work out that way. 

Mr. Trump has already heard an earful from Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Kinder and the like. I wouldn't be surprised to see him do something really radical. Time is running out. The markets are crashing. A pandemic is upon us. The Federal Reserve has shot its wad. Now what does the Federal Reserve do--start buying equities? And what if we became a bigger buyer of Russian oil? MbS has really shot off the end of his talleywhacker and I don't believe anyone will care.

[SammyBoy 0]

I'd say with WTI at 27.67 currently we will see U.S. production cuts. Lot of uneconomic wells will be shut in very quickly.

[J.mo + 165]

41 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

James, this guy MbS is not operating on a full tank. Remember, this is the guy who allegedly had Khashoggi whacked and the world let him get by with it. 

He thinks he can do anything. This stuff is his toy-world. 

Me? I doubt that he can survive this. I mean, what kind of idiot blows up his own country to make a point?

OPEC is now in shreds. Iran is going to have to run their own deals, Iraq too, and Nigeria, for Pete's sake. And these are the most sophisticated. Well, there's the Emirates, but they've always kept their own peace. 

Putin can hold on. MbS? I don't think so. Aramco was a house of cards and the people who bought into it were coerced, for the most part. But they also held out a sliver of hope that things would revert to business as usual. Well, things didn't work out that way. 

Mr. Trump has already heard an earful from Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Kinder and the like. I wouldn't be surprised to see him do something really radical. Time is running out. The markets are crashing. A pandemic is upon us. The Federal Reserve has shot its wad. Now what does the Federal Reserve do--start buying equities? And what if we became a bigger buyer of Russian oil? MbS has really shot off the end of his talleywhacker and I don't believe anyone will care.

What I dont understand is how the Saudis thought a deal with the competition would last forever and continued business as usual. All while the US was riding the wave, restructuring to gain strength and russia behind the wall was restructuring its economics for the moment to pull the rip cord. OPEC has been insignificant for years, iran and Venezuela with sanctions, so who really left to cut in opec+ besides russia and ksa. This deal was bad for them from beginning. when al falih went this deal was all but dead for ksa and seized by russia. When you cant tell the person steering the wheel in KSA no, it gets even worse. I dont know how the hell no one there saw this coming. I've seen it since the day putin smirked his face in the deal. The cuts would have never worked from the beginning without russia. Guess who's known that all along..

Hopefully here in the states the producers knew the same and have been working on economics which we know they have been to an extent.