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MBS has asked the former Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih to talk to Russia's Novak

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24 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

I was literally gonna ask : if these wells had pumps , if theres any other expenses,  if they can be plugged and re opened without damage . Thanks for the answers folks! But I didnt see if these are fraced wells or older horizontal wells or conventional? 

Ours is a simple relatively shallow vertical well. I've no idea what a 3 mile monstrosity costs to insure. I'll be pissed if they get the same rate (meaning we're subsidizing them). Almost all wells have pumps. Plugging a well is an involved process, usually you plug and abandon. Shutting in a well is different, you leave the wellhead on and shut down all the valves and of course don't pump. If your well is making water there might be issues, I don't know (ours isn't). Meanwhile, what about the royalty owner? Most leases require production to hold the lease. You don't produce, they can kick you off, and good luck taking that well with you…

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(edited)

On 3/11/2020 at 5:32 PM, Dmitry Bedin said:

An old fake news

Not fake

Russia sending representatives to OPEC Technical meeting March 18th.

There are also behind the scene talks going on.

Doesn't mean something happens.

I doubt any agreement now will have anything more than a brief effect.

The virus caused the drop in demand. Saudis added a bit of chaos. 

Virus could last a month or a year.

Saudis (and some OP contributors) mistakenly believe they can kill off shale with their market share war.  They're short term benefit will be but a very temporary victory.

U.S. shale will consolidate and come out stronger and better. 

Saudi and Russian petro economies will be in same predicament with dependence on a petro economy that is on a descent .

Going to be a long year for oil industry. Cowboy up.

Edited by BLA
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1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

I was literally gonna ask : if these wells had pumps , if theres any other expenses,  if they can be plugged and re opened without damage . Thanks for the answers folks! But I didnt see if these are fraced wells or older horizontal wells or conventional? 

Specifically these are vertical wells and they are mostly no more than 3000 feet deep.  All in expenses that they are allowed to count for lifting costs are about $25/bbl.  I am not sure that there is any requirement for well insurance in Texas and $30k per well would exceed the revenue from the well as the total production is less than 300 barrels per year per well.

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15 hours ago, Boat said:

Sounds like a plan China would implement. A better plan would be to end flaring and see if the US would have exports of oil.

I was thinking of not exporting but stopping importing through tariffs to protect our industry. I am for your plan too. 

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2 hours ago, wrs said:

Specifically these are vertical wells and they are mostly no more than 3000 feet deep.  All in expenses that they are allowed to count for lifting costs are about $25/bbl.  I am not sure that there is any requirement for well insurance in Texas and $30k per well would exceed the revenue from the well as the total production is less than 300 barrels per year per well.

Don't know about Texas. Found this link. It appears you need financial "assurance" whatever that means. 

Quote

Financial Assurance

In accordance with Statewide Rule 78, most Commission regulated activities, including the operation of wells and pipelines, require an organization to file and maintain some form of financial assurance in varying amounts.

Acceptable Forms of Financial Assurance

  • Option 1 (Available only to operators with no activity other than the operation of wells.)
    • Form P-5PB(1), Letter of Credit (Form P-5LC), or Cash Deposit
    • Amount is determined by multiplying the aggregate depth of all wells (active, inactive, injection, producer, etc.) at $2 per foot
  • Option 2 (Available to All Operators) - Form P-5PB(2), Letter of Credit (Form P-5LC), or Cash Deposit
    • Amount determined by the total number of wells (active, inactive, injection, producer, etc.)
      • No wells - $25,000
      • 1 to 10 wells - $25,000
      • 11 to 99 wells - $50,000
      • 100 wells are more - $250,000

Cash Deposit (Cashier's Check Only)

 

 

  • Can be filed under either Financial Security Option 1 or Option 2
  • Cash deposits are automatically renewed once an operator submits their Form P-5 renewal packet and filing fee
  • No fee required to renew cash deposit annually
  • Interest earned on cash deposits is allocated to the Oil and Gas Cleanup Fund (See TNRC §81.067)

 

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10 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Don't know about Texas. Found this link. It appears you need financial "assurance" whatever that means. 

 

This isn't an operating expense though.  It doesn't show up when they calculate paying quantities because it appears it's a one time bond that can be satisfied with a letter of credit.

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2 hours ago, wrs said:

This isn't an operating expense though.  It doesn't show up when they calculate paying quantities because it appears it's a one time bond that can be satisfied with a letter of credit.

Makes sense. Reading it again I see that they have a $2/foot fee, active or inactive. I'd definitely be saving money in my state at that rate. Those operating expenses show up on the K-1 but I don't know about the bonds. I do know there's a ton of orphan wells in Texas, we looked into those but it seemed like a guaranteed landmine situation so we kept looking. 

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(edited)

A Saudi/Russian agreement would do little at this point.  

ITS ALL ABOUT THE VIRUS DEMAND DESTRUCTION.  

The Saudi effort to hurt Russia and U.S. Shale will hurt them more then help them.  Short term they accelerate the consolidation of the U.S. Shale industry. That was long overdue. 

Shale will come out of this with fewer producers that will be stronger and better with a lower overall break even price . All the better to compete.  

Saudi Arabia has broken OPEC .  Can they reconstitute it ?  That's debatable. When virus goes away where does that leave the oil industry. 

Saudis have a lot on their plate. Saudi Arabia population 75% under 35 years old.  Most supported by the oil profits.  What happens when Brent settles in the upper $50's post CV

 

Edited by BLA
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52 minutes ago, BLA said:

A Saudi/Russian agreement would do little at this point.  

ITS ALL ABOUT THE VIRUS DEMAND DESTRUCTION.  

The Saudi effort to hurt Russia and U.S. Shale will hurt them more then help them.  Short term they accelerate the consolidation of the U.S. Shale industry. That was long overdue.  Bit Shale will come out of this with fewer producers , stronger and better with a lower overall break even price . All the better to compete.  

Saudi Arabia population 75% under 35 years old.  Most supported by the oil profits. 

The way I think they are viewing this is,  a deal to cut would do little with the demand loss. So if they are going to lose, they might as well lose big and get it other with. Seize what they view as an opportunity to inflict as much damage in a short period of time. 

 

 

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On 3/12/2020 at 4:23 PM, J.mo said:

The way I think they are viewing this is,  a deal to cut would do little with the demand loss. So if they are going to lose, they might as well lose big and get it other with. Seize what they view as an opportunity to inflict as much damage in a short period of time. 

 

 

That sounds about right.

 

Where they are wrong is they think they will kill shale.  They won't.  The weak shale producers will die and go away and the strong will buy up the reserves at fire sale prices.  

 

I remember back in 2015 when Saudi tried to kill shale.  A Saudi oil minister said it cost U.S. shale between $70 to $80 to lift shale oil.  They were not even close.  They didn't understand shale then.  They ended up trashing their Sovereign Wealth Fund.  

ARAMCO announced 2019 earnings dropped 21% .  That was with an avg Oil price in the $60's. They still announced a $73 Billion 2019 dividend and stated the 2020 dividend would be $75 Billion.  Good luck with that. 

 

Saidis will cause disruption and pain for U.S. shale.  But Shale will come out of this stronger with an even lower overall break even price.  

Saudis are desperate. They have to try.  What's their alternative.  KSA can't survive in present state if oil trades at sustained $50 bbl oil. What will Saudi Arabia look like in 5 years ? 

Can only fight the laws of Supply and Demand forever (even though they did for 60 years).  Competition is now coming. 

 

 

Edited by BLA
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March 10.

- The OPEC + alliance does not cease to exist and will work under the Charter on Perpetual Cooperation, under which it is expected to jointly respond to the situation on the oil market if necessary, and the next alliance meetings are scheduled for May-June.

- Now the panic has subsided, but it may take several months to restore oil quotes.

Head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak: “Firstly, I want to say that the doors are not closed. The fact that the agreement has not been extended after April 1 does not mean that we cannot continue to cooperate with the OPEC and non-OPEC countries. It was signed last year, the Charter, and as part of it, we will continue this interaction. We are planning regular meetings in May-June in order to assess the market situation. Now our task is to quickly respond to the situation in the markets in order to mitigate the maximum consequences and continue monitoring".- https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7934893

March 12.

The Ministry of Energy of Russia considers it appropriate in the current environment to hold the next OPEC + Technical Committee (JTC) in a teleconference format.

Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak: “Most likely, in the mode of a conference (teleconference), this is most appropriate in the current conditions.”

The minister did not confirm the date of the JTC, which was earlier announced by the head of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, on March 18. "We need to clarify whether we have officially received this offer."https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7956751

March 13.

- Russia can restore the oil production reduced due to the OPEC + agreement in April 2020 - by 200 thousand barrels per day. Further growth will take time.

A. Novak: “We do not see the conditions for such proposals [on a new agreement]. We do not see the prevailing conditions. You see how OPEC participants behave, therefore, movement is hardly possible against this background. You can quickly restore it production, which was reduced in connection with the agreement [OPEC +] in relation to October 2018. As regards additional production, it will take some time to ensure investment costs. I think the total amount that was reduced is 200 thousand [barrels] can be restored. e and the market may be a variety of offerings. But I am sure that our delivery and our company more efficient".

.Novak added that he himself had not yet heard of such proposals from the side of the Saudis. “We do not have such information,” he said. .https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7972883

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On 12.03.2020 at 23:40, BLA said:

Это звучит примерно так.

Они ошибаются, когда думают, что убьют сланец. Они не будут. Слабые сланцевые производители умрут и уйдут, а сильные скупят запасы по ценам распродажи.  

Я помню еще в 2015 году, когда саудовцы пытались убить сланец. Министр нефти Саудовской Аравии заявил, что добыча сланцевой нефти в США будет стоить от 70 до 80 долларов США. Они даже не были близко. Они не понимали сланца тогда. Они закончили тем, что разгромили свой Суверенный Фонд Благосостояния.  

Они вызовут срыв и боль для американских сланцев. Но это выйдет из этого сильнее с еще более низкой общей ценой безубыточности.  

Саудиты в отчаянии. Они должны попробовать. Какова их альтернатива. КСА не сможет выжить в нынешнем состоянии, если нефть будет торговаться на устойчивой нефти в 50 баррелей. Как будет выглядеть Саудовская Аравия через 5 лет?

The Russian Federation and KSA maintain and increase their shares in the markets of the EU, China, and RI.
The solution to the problem includes US fracking, pricing on US exchanges and the US dollar (in international settlements and hydrocarbon transactions))).
BRICS + Iran, Iraq, Syria, Venezuela with Libya to help us! )))

PS Apparently, you are poorly informed about the real situation in shale mining.

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, Andrew N. said:

 

"The Russian Federation and KSA maintain and increase their shares in the markets of the EU, China, and RI.

PS Apparently, you are poorly informed about the real situation in shale mining.

.  _________________________________________

Рад тебя видеть

China, EU and Rhode Island going to allow both Russia and KSA to maintain market share.  

Sure, until the storage fills up with $25 oil. Go crazy . 

Sinopec refusing up to 8 April Saudi deliveries.  = 16 mm bbls

Nigeria has 50 tankers of oil stranded in international waters with nowhere to go.

The shut down of Europe and U.S. just starting ?  Surplus ! Surplus ! Surplus !

Do you think Russia and China working together ?  

China buying a lot of Russian highly discounted Urals crude and refusing Saudi Aramco deliveries.  Saudis can't be happy about that. 

If this keeps up we're going to $20 Brent.

Trump going to buy U.S. shale oil for SPR.  I think there is about 120 million bbls capacity left.  Will help a little. 

This too shall pass. 

Edited by BLA

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On 3/12/2020 at 3:27 PM, BLA said:

A Saudi/Russian agreement would do little at this point.  

ITS ALL ABOUT THE VIRUS DEMAND DESTRUCTION.  

The Saudi effort to hurt Russia and U.S. Shale will hurt them more then help them.  Short term they accelerate the consolidation of the U.S. Shale industry. That was long overdue. 

Shale will come out of this with fewer producers that will be stronger and better with a lower overall break even price . All the better to compete.  

Saudi Arabia has broken OPEC .  Can the reconstitute it ?  That's debatable. When virus goes away where does that leave the oil industry. 

Saudis have a lot on their plate. Saudi Arabia population 75% under 35 years old.  Most supported by the oil profits.  What happens when Brent settles in the upper $50's post CV

 

I don't recall if it were you or someone else that posted that Saudi tankers were sitting offshore China while Russian and US carriers were let through to unload. There is obviously a deal between Russia and China and the US and china have a tariff deal that is known and public. The Korean deal with the US requires them to buy US crude, so they are doing that. Only buying Saudi for SPR storage and speculation. 

So Saudi is fighting back where there is no deal, i.e. the NW Europe market, where they are making a direct effort to thwart Russian sales where bringing the oil to market in China would be rather costly.

The math of it is that there was a 6 mob glut in China for a month. Now there is a 2 mob/d excess supply there. The work from home and much reduced flying petri dish market is forming another new 4 mob/d or more excess supply. Total of at least 6 mob/d for Mar after about the same from China in Feb. And the outlook is only MAYBE better for Apr. and onwards, and gradual. 

Somebody has to stop producing or people will be floating milk jugs full of crude in the oceans to arbitrage the futures calendar trade 20% for one year, 37% for two years, 41% for 3 years. 6 mob/d to play with. Saudi and Russia can take care of most of it. We can all "help" Iran reach its downward optimized production. US shale will respond by holding back drilling, which will result in reduced production in late 2020. Not on the time scale that the market requires for balancing. 

The futures curve flattens out at $48 past 2024. 

Filling SPRs is good. Definitely help when the lack of investment plays out with a price spike into the $70s as current producers deplete and demand recovers, with a healthy boost from the exodus of industry out of China into new regional supply chain geographies. A one time boost to infrastructure and industrial expansion for a couple of years. After that, the oil demand picture looks weak. The Russian expansion projects look like forward candidates for the Darwin awards. 

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It looks like the Saudis are supplying to Europe and the US preferentially over Asia:

http://www.energyintel.com/pages/eig_article.aspx?DocID=1066328&utm_campaign=top-story&utm_medium=site&utm_source=1&utm_content=Saudi+Supply+Surge+Falls+Short+of+Bold+Claims-1066328&ts=1

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-asia-refineries/saudi-refuses-to-give-extra-april-crude-to-at-least-three-asian-refiners-sources-idUSKBN20Z192

 

The Asian refiners seem pissed:

Quote

Right now, however, it feels like Aramco’s stated supply surge is nothing more than a game of chicken with Russia and US shale, according to a disgruntled Asian refiner source.

 

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13 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I don't recall if it were you or someone else that posted that Saudi tankers were sitting offshore China while Russian and US carriers were let through to unload. There is obviously a deal between Russia and China and the US and china have a tariff deal that is known and public. The Korean deal with the US requires them to buy US crude, so they are doing that. Only buying Saudi for SPR storage and speculation. 

So Saudi is fighting back where there is no deal, i.e. the NW Europe market, where they are making a direct effort to thwart Russian sales where bringing the oil to market in China would be rather costly.

The math of it is that there was a 6 mob glut in China for a month. Now there is a 2 mob/d excess supply there. The work from home and much reduced flying petri dish market is forming another new 4 mob/d or more excess supply. Total of at least 6 mob/d for Mar after about the same from China in Feb. And the outlook is only MAYBE better for Apr. and onwards, and gradual. 

Somebody has to stop producing or people will be floating milk jugs full of crude in the oceans to arbitrage the futures calendar trade 20% for one year, 37% for two years, 41% for 3 years. 6 mob/d to play with. Saudi and Russia can take care of most of it. We can all "help" Iran reach its downward optimized production. US shale will respond by holding back drilling, which will result in reduced production in late 2020. Not on the time scale that the market requires for balancing. 

The futures curve flattens out at $48 past 2024. 

Filling SPRs is good. Definitely help when the lack of investment plays out with a price spike into the $70s as current producers deplete and demand recovers, with a healthy boost from the exodus of industry out of China into new regional supply chain geographies. A one time boost to infrastructure and industrial expansion for a couple of years. After that, the oil demand picture looks weak. The Russian expansion projects look like forward candidates for the Darwin awards. 

OR0

When you quote price at $48 are you quoting Brent or WTI  ?

As for U.S. filling the SPR is a good idea I respectfully disagree.  It's just a bailout of oil industry with U.S. taxpayers money.  75 mm bbls X $35 bbl = a lot of taxpayers money better spent elsewhere. 

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2 hours ago, BLA said:

OR0

When you quote price at $48 are you quoting Brent or WTI  ?

As for U.S. filling the SPR is a good idea I respectfully disagree.  It's just a bailout of oil industry with U.S. taxpayers money.  75 mm bbls X $35 bbl = a lot of taxpayers money better spent elsewhere. 

Better spent where?  LOL!  Seriously, the govt spends money on so much unneeded stuff it's ridiculous, at least this is a real item that it's purchasing that can be used in the future.  Not like studies of birds in the arctic or bridges to nowhere.

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17 minutes ago, wrs said:

Better spent where?  LOL!  Seriously, the govt spends money on so much unneeded stuff it's ridiculous, at least this is a real item that it's purchasing that can be used in the future.  Not like studies of birds in the arctic or bridges to nowhere.

You want another bailout.

Cowboy up Texan. I bet your grandfather never complained when he bought the land that you inherited.

Quit whining.

Edited by BLA

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Just now, BLA said:

You want another bailout.

Cowboy up Texan.

Quit whining.

You trying to stir the pot?  Of course you are.  No one is whining. 

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I dont know if this is the right oil price war thread (lol) but my opinion on a few things ... SPR - good if they can fill at 30$ and prices spike from a lack of supply and they can sell at 70$ it's a net profit for taxpayers (government) . Helps the economy in a REAL way. I dont see any future with oil at 30$ long term. So fill batter deplete at higher prices. 

Russia China - definitely working to help each other while it works.

Russia Saudi - definitely NOT working together.  I see it as a tit for tat and read an article about Saudi selling oil to Russian neighbor countries.  

Russian Economy - I dont think anyone really cares about running deficits (Canadian perspective lmao) BUT I think due to a recent article I read they are loosing Natural gas Market AND Price. I read they've lost 30% of sales to LNG and soon to be Egyptian gas and Saudi wants to get in on it. Plus Prices went from 10$ us to 3$... I dont think that's modeled into their last years business plan. 

Length of price war. - 8 more months I've read everywhere is declining.  Now no CAPEX. 50$ oil again in 8M (mabey Saudis and Russians dont pull back production but that will be business not a price war) and demand increases will allow some shale rebuild room without flooding. Probably a reason why this price war makes sense not to eliminate shale but to set it back 1.5yr till room is available.  My .02c . Happy Lords Day All. 

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19 hours ago, wrs said:

You trying to stir the pot?  Of course you are.  No one is whining. 

No pot stir

Thought this site was for oil investing and trading.  Just being realistic.

Hoping this is over sooner than later.

MBS thinks his scorched earth strategy will work.

I don't

We all are going to have to suck it up and wait it out.

Reality is even if PUTIN agreed to the 1.5 million cut the price of oil would still be down to this level.  

Doesn't matter.

U.S. and EU demand destruction just beginning. 

MBS v. PUTIN just a sideshow at this point.  

Edited by BLA
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(edited)

Gentlemen, if in Russia is going to be extremelly  bad then in my opinion Russian-backed Iranians or fighters from Yemen will simply once again destroy the oil fields in Saudi Arabia or somewhere else in the world.

The fundamental difference is that Russia is a great nuclear power and second strongest army in the world and Saudi Arabia is not.

 

At the moment I will not be surprised if the Yemen suddenly come into possession of a very modern weapon and even now the Saudi army of mercenaries in this conflict is strongly discrediting proving that modern Western equipment is not everything.

As the experience of North Korea teaches, and on the other hand Libya or Ukraine  truly independent is only the country with atomic weapons - this is a real attribute of power, so many countries in the world are following Kim's model to get it.

I would recommend  a sober article from Spectator by no means from RT why the policy of the young ruler of Saudi Arabia is stupid.

The fact is also that in my opinion KSA no longer has such a protective umbrella from the US Trump administration  and this is a fundamental change that MSB is probably not fully aware

This is also the reason why, although I will probably sadden many people at the moment, no normal sensible person  in western ellite will ever impose very severe sanctions on Russia. Even the most stubborn neocons realize thats suicide is imposing such sanctions on a country with 8,000 nuclear missiles.

Many people in the West were really extremely terrified that in the 90s some dirty post-Soviet atomic bomb would fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda or other radicals, and eventually it would explode in New York City.This can be read in the memories of the members of the western elite from the 90s, especially when the Russian influential general Lebied threw out the attention that about 20 dirty bombs were lost in the 90s. It turned out to be wrong but really at that time in the American secret services a red alarm was announced because the World Trade Center could not the worst that ultimately happened in New York and the USA.

Such sanctions in my opinion can be reasonably imposed on Iran or Venezuela and not Russia with all your reluctance because it threatens with a potential catastrophe with unpredictable consequences.

Maybe if the Russians would attack Germany or Great Britain, then I can imagine it. But not in the situation of Ukraine, whether you like it or not, it has been in the Russian sphere of influence for over 350 years and I think that President Ronald Reagan and his administration have never assumed that they will try to include Ukraine into NATO.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/crude-tactics-russia-and-saudi-arabia-s-war-over-oil-prices

image.png

Edited by Tomasz
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7 hours ago, BLA said:

OR0

When you quote price at $48 are you quoting Brent or WTI  ?

As for U.S. filling the SPR is a good idea I respectfully disagree.  It's just a bailout of oil industry with U.S. taxpayers money.  75 mm bbls X $35 bbl = a lot of taxpayers money better spent elsewhere. 

Yes, WTIC reference

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/cl*0/futures-prices?viewName=main

The SPR fill up is not a subsidy. It is no different than a Federal investment, they are paying low prices for a worthwhile asset.  It is a smart move in a volatile crucial commodity. It will be a matter of how smart the draw from the SPR would be. Generally, the way to go is you draw by promising to deliver replacement oil at a future date. 

Without an effective floor to the oil price from OPEC+, there is every reason to expect an oil price spike of great magnitude and at least a year's duration after this period of investment cuts. China, Korea and other SPR fillers are acting rationally to the obvious consequences of this glut on future supply. The US should do the same.

 

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15 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Yes, WTIC reference

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/cl*0/futures-prices?viewName=main

The SPR fill up is not a subsidy. It is no different than a Federal investment, they are paying low prices for a worthwhile asset.  It is a smart move in a volatile crucial commodity. It will be a matter of how smart the draw from the SPR would be. Generally, the way to go is you draw by promising to deliver replacement oil at a future date. 

Without an effective floor to the oil price from OPEC+, there is every reason to expect an oil price spike of great magnitude and at least a year's duration after this period of investment cuts. China, Korea and other SPR fillers are acting rationally to the obvious consequences of this glut on future supply. The US should do the same.

 

So now the Federal government is speculating on the future direction of oil prices.  

Most any time the government gets in the way of free market it is not for the better.

They said they are buying 75 million bbls.  That equates to about 6 days of production.  It will help the lucky few companies that get to sell , but not the whole of U.S. shale . 

More symbolic than anything else.  A waste of a couple of $ Billion

Now dropping the Jones Act is big and wrong. 

Edited by BLA

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2 hours ago, BLA said:

So now the Federal government is speculating on the future direction of oil prices.  

Most any time the government gets in the way of free market it is not for the better.

They said they are buying 75 million bbls.  That equates to about 6 days of production.  It will help the lucky few companies that get to sell , but not the whole of U.S. shale . 

More symbolic than anything else

Now dropping the Jones Act is big and wrong. 

The Jones act is a strategic security issue and tax authority reach issue. It is there to stay. Dems are definitely not going to help that one go away.

 

I should add that the SPR is one of the largest available storage systems on the planet and is otherwise not available to private operators. There is an argument to make about renting it out rather than directly buying and selling oil on the Federal balance sheet. 

Edited by 0R0

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