Covid-19 exponential growth

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 3/25/2020 at 8:26 AM, Zhong Lu said:

So I guess what you're saying is that it's not a good idea to blob groups of people and make big sweeping generalizations about them.  Just because certain individuals in a group have an opinion or behave in a certain way, this does not mean we can assume the entire group has that opinion or will behave in that way.  Am I correct? 

****************************************************************************

Some hospital director in Wuhan suppressed the news about the corona virus initially.  That did happen. But when the news reached the top of the CCP (i.e. not the middle management) they immediately went into action to lock the areas down.  So: is the spread of the corona virus the fault of the "Chinese government" or the fault of some shithead in Wuhan? Again, to what extent can we assign blame to the "Chinese government" because of the behavior of a few individuals? 

And this is an important question because it applies to Boeing and US administrations, too.  

EDIT: Also, as you said yourself, people can change their minds.  Might it be possible that certain members of the Chinese government initially underestimated the corona virus? After all, certain  members of the US government underestimated the corona virus initially, too.  A common theme among governments, Chinese, America, whatever, appears to be to say "all is well" as an initial response to any crisis.  

The reports are that Xi's office and himself did the suppression. His direct report heading the office of propaganda got his marching orders and did what he was told. Beyond that, the entire chain was suppressing information so it does not go up the hierarchy to the top. But social media memes are reported to the propaganda minister who reports them to Xi. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

16 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

What a couple of idiots. They're just making up numbers and pretending they are representative.

I'll do one better. As of yesterday, the US and 1,032 deaths and 394 recoveries from COVID-19. Using these cherry picked numbers, you get a mortality rate of 72.4%. Is 72.4% bullshit? Of course it's bullshit. And I'm not making up wild assumptions like they are.

Learn to read with a critical mind. Stop copy and pasting propaganda.

I suspect they are right. The German and Dutch numbers now updated rose to 0.6% mortality. But they test by contact chain rather than triage testing to symptomatic patients only. Which is what most have been doing so far because there have been too few test kits available to test more broadly. They only tested one whole village. 

Antibody tests are showing up now and a home test kit similar to an HIV antibody test would allow mass testing to determine exposure and from that we can determine mortality rates. 

When the German research showing the virus was transmitted by surface contact where it could remain for 14 days if not cleaned or heated I figured that all dense cities in the world are screwed. And that the Chinese test numbers don't come close to reflecting the reality of the spread of the disease in China. Just as their death numbers don't reflect actual deaths by the virus because people who died at home (20k/week more than the year before according to crematorium activity rates in Wuhan at the crest of the epidemic, ~60k total likely unrecorded CV19 deaths in Wuhan, 160k by suddenly abandoned cell phone accounts over last year for China as a whole). Considering the severe quarantine measures in apartment buildings and neighborhoods where cases were found, Amounting to 780 million in quarantine at the peak of it, That meant that the disease was far more prevalent than the case numbers suggest. The high transmissibility of the virus would lead me to suspect that the population had all bee infected but for those who work from home or retired or ill. So about 80% in Wuhan, about 9 million people. So an estimated 63k dead of 9 million or about 0.7% Worse than a bad flu season. But not hysterically bad, and in line with German and Dutch numbers. 

By my own attempt to gauge the transmission potential of a dense metro center, Essentially all the people that went on their daily lives would have been infected within a week. Only people who were not leaving their homes often llike retirees staycationers and the ill, or home based workers would not be exposed at a substantial rate. So in NYC it is likely 13-14 million of the 19 million population are infected - definitely all members of households with children or students. 

You can see the rates of positive vs negative tests in the various states. Big city states have a higher ratio of positive tests.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 3/22/2020 at 9:22 PM, Guillaume Albasini said:

You should care about it. The time you'll remain in lockdown wil depend of the shape of this curves.

So me studying these graphs and curves will somehow lengthen or shorten my time in lockdown? I fail to see how that makes any sense at all!

[J.mo + 165]

16 hours ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I've seen too many companies collapse because of lack of understanding their risks. Bravo, you're a CEO. Same here. Big whoop - that takes balls, not brains.

Here you are defending Trump.  The guy who parrotted China's lies that everything was under control so he didn't have to take any action.  Guess what, the US now has the most confirmed cases in the world and its cases are doubling faster than any other country in the world, bar Turkey.

Massive lack of leadership. And I don't see any strategy about how to fix it. He undermines any staffer who understands anything.

I don't believe that is due to lack of trump. I believe it is due to lack of buy in by the american people. I live in California, like it or not the "leaders" do things their own way. Majority of people dont like or pay attention to trump. 

That Being said, we were the first to lock down and mass mitigate. Not a soul in sight taking it seriously, other than myself it seems.  I live 100mi east of the bay area epicenter. 

[TooSteep + 142]

7 hours ago, 0R0 said:

...The high transmissibility of the virus would lead me to suspect that the population had all bee infected but for those who work from home or retired or ill. So about 80% in Wuhan, about 9 million people. So an estimated 63k dead of 9 million or about 0.7% Worse than a bad flu season. But not hysterically bad, and in line with German and Dutch numbers. 

By my own attempt to gauge the transmission potential of a dense metro center, Essentially all the people that went on their daily lives would have been infected within a week. Only people who were not leaving their homes often llike retirees staycationers and the ill, or home based workers would not be exposed at a substantial rate. So in NYC it is likely 13-14 million of the 19 million population are infected - definitely all members of households with children or students...

At this point, this feels like a best case scenario. What are the details of your model?

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, 0R0 said:

I suspect they are right. The German and Dutch numbers now updated rose to 0.6% mortality. But they test by contact chain rather than triage testing to symptomatic patients only. Which is what most have been doing so far because there have been too few test kits available to test more broadly. They only tested one whole village. 

Antibody tests are showing up now and a home test kit similar to an HIV antibody test would allow mass testing to determine exposure and from that we can determine mortality rates. 

When the German research showing the virus was transmitted by surface contact where it could remain for 14 days if not cleaned or heated I figured that all dense cities in the world are screwed. And that the Chinese test numbers don't come close to reflecting the reality of the spread of the disease in China. Just as their death numbers don't reflect actual deaths by the virus because people who died at home (20k/week more than the year before according to crematorium activity rates in Wuhan at the crest of the epidemic, ~60k total likely unrecorded CV19 deaths in Wuhan, 160k by suddenly abandoned cell phone accounts over last year for China as a whole). Considering the severe quarantine measures in apartment buildings and neighborhoods where cases were found, Amounting to 780 million in quarantine at the peak of it, That meant that the disease was far more prevalent than the case numbers suggest. The high transmissibility of the virus would lead me to suspect that the population had all bee infected but for those who work from home or retired or ill. So about 80% in Wuhan, about 9 million people. So an estimated 63k dead of 9 million or about 0.7% Worse than a bad flu season. But not hysterically bad, and in line with German and Dutch numbers. 

By my own attempt to gauge the transmission potential of a dense metro center, Essentially all the people that went on their daily lives would have been infected within a week. Only people who were not leaving their homes often llike retirees staycationers and the ill, or home based workers would not be exposed at a substantial rate. So in NYC it is likely 13-14 million of the 19 million population are infected - definitely all members of households with children or students. 

You can see the rates of positive vs negative tests in the various states. Big city states have a higher ratio of positive tests.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

I believe the main problem with comparing this with a flu is because it is novel.   People have had flus in the past, and get flu shots.

Population of the US x 75% infection x 0.5% mortality = well over over a million dead.

Open the economy and up the infected rate goes up to say 85% and the mortality to up 0.7% (due to overwealmed healthcare) and we are at about two million.

 

 

 

 

 

[surrept33 + 609]

16 hours ago, frankfurter said:

interesting.  I know of exponential growth, but this is the first time I encounter logarithmic growth. Is this valid?  Both are functions, but the exponent gives a result in real numbers. A logarithm is the inverse of the exponent. An inverse function measures growth?  More like the inverse function assists analysis, such as graphic plotting on a logarithmic scale. 

Based on my understanding, the underlying process is still growing exponentially. The terminology comes from the usage of log plots to linearize the curve:

https://books.google.com/books?id=seRaAQAAQBAJ&pg=PA52#v=onepage&q&f=false

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

I believe the main problem with comparing this with a flu is because it is novel.   People have had flus in the past, and get flu shots.

Population of the US x 75% infection x 0.5% mortality = well over over a million dead.

Open the economy and up the infected rate goes up to say 85% and the mortality to up 0.7% (due to overwealmed healthcare) and we are at about two million.

 

Wrong population number for the cresting issue overwhelming the medical system 

You don't open up all of the economy all of a sudden.. You wait for the crest to show up in the daily deaths and follow that figure for the metropolitan areas. 

Dense Cities are fast propagating. Suburbia is slow propagating once you close schools and other dense gatherings. There is no reason to lock those areas down. Some precautions an limitations are sufficient. 

Physical distancing and public surface sanitation are sufficient in low density population without public transport and mass gatherings. That is 60% of the US. The spread is slower speed. So the propagation wave that forms is flatter and does not overwhelm the medical system. That means 60% of US population X low death rate + 30% X high death rate. 

The low density urban population is mixed high density centers and low density outside it within the same jurisdiction. More difficult to segregate operations principles for the two areas. So would have to remain in restricted mode, though its rate of propagation would be lower. 

The spread in low density areas is too slow to cause a problem if you just keep gatherings (schools church events dining halls) restricted.  

The positive stats in large test pools so far are highest in NY state (NYC), 30% positive. And NJ (NYC metro), 34%

Ilinois (Chicago) 15%, Cali (LA, SF) 15% (another 200% bigger sample is out for results and should give a better idea)  Both states are sprawling suburban with relatively small dense urban centers. 

Party towns Florida (Miami) 9% Louisiana (New Orleans) 13%

Oddly high numbers from Michigan (Detroit) 30%, and Maryland (Baltimore) 86%, Delaware 80% Samples are not sizable yet.

Suburban metros Pensylvania (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) 9%, Ohio (Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati) 5%

https://covidtracking.com/data/

The spread in cities is too fast to control after you missed it. The death toll has to be high as the dense city would surely rise in an overwhelmed city, which it surely would. I figured you are at 75% infection in a dense city within a week, and if I overstated the propagation via public surfaces then up to 2 weeks. The point is that if you didn't halt the spread BEFORE any symptomatic cases presented in significant numbers then you lost the war already. By the time the exponential growth shows up in symptomatic cases presenting at hospitals, you are likely not protecting anybody by having strict quarantine.  You can only protect the high risk population as you go on with restricted normal activity. Support high risk populations by allowing them to remain in place with only screened people known not to carry the virus having access to them, doctor home visits rather than having them go to the doctor. It is up to them if they want to take the risk of venturing out. 

Amazon warehouses and the supermarkets are showing us how to deal with the practicalities of controlling propagation of CV19 in the workplace as they gain experience tracking down the propagation process and cleaning up after outbreaks in their facilities. We could learn from what adaptations S. Korea and Japan Taiwan and Singapore did to allow continued function while containing the propagation. 

 

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Wrong population number for the cresting issue overwhelming the medical system 

You don't open up all of the economy all of a sudden.. You wait for the crest to show up in the daily deaths and follow that figure for the metropolitan areas. 

Dense Cities are fast propagating. Suburbia is slow propagating once you close schools and other dense gatherings. There is no reason to lock those areas down. Some precautions an limitations are sufficient. 

Physical distancing and public surface sanitation are sufficient in low density population without public transport and mass gatherings. That is 60% of the US. The spread is slower speed. So the propagation wave that forms is flatter and does not overwhelm the medical system. That means 60% of US population X low death rate + 30% X high death rate. 

The low density urban population is mixed high density centers and low density outside it within the same jurisdiction. More difficult to segregate operations principles for the two areas. So would have to remain in restricted mode, though its rate of propagation would be lower. 

The spread in low density areas is too slow to cause a problem if you just keep gatherings (schools church events dining halls) restricted.  

The positive stats in large test pools so far are highest in NY state (NYC), 30% positive. And NJ (NYC metro), 34%

Ilinois (Chicago) 15%, Cali (LA, SF) 15% (another 200% bigger sample is out for results and should give a better idea)  Both states are sprawling suburban with relatively small dense urban centers. 

Party towns Florida (Miami) 9% Louisiana (New Orleans) 13%

Oddly high numbers from Michigan (Detroit) 30%, and Maryland (Baltimore) 86%, Delaware 80% Samples are not sizable yet.

Suburban metros Pensylvania (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) 9%, Ohio (Cleveland Columbus Cincinnati) 5%

https://covidtracking.com/data/

The spread in cities is too fast to control after you missed it. The death toll has to be high as the dense city would surely rise in an overwhelmed city, which it surely would. I figured you are at 75% infection in a dense city within a week, and if I overstated the propagation via public surfaces then up to 2 weeks. The point is that if you didn't halt the spread BEFORE any symptomatic cases presented in significant numbers then you lost the war already. By the time the exponential growth shows up in symptomatic cases presenting at hospitals, you are likely not protecting anybody by having strict quarantine.  You can only protect the high risk population as you go on with restricted normal activity. Support high risk populations by allowing them to remain in place with only screened people known not to carry the virus having access to them, doctor home visits rather than having them go to the doctor. It is up to them if they want to take the risk of venturing out. 

Amazon warehouses and the supermarkets are showing us how to deal with the practicalities of controlling propagation of CV19 in the workplace as they gain experience tracking down the propagation process and cleaning up after outbreaks in their facilities. We could learn from what adaptations S. Korea and Japan Taiwan and Singapore did to allow continued function while containing the propagation. 

 

I could see it being a complicated equation based on local population density, age distribution, and access to quality healthcare.

We will see.

 

[Arthur Ralfs + 1]

Note that Guillaume Albasini is confused about the growth of the virus which tends to be exponential not logarithmic.  The exponential and logarithm functions are inverse to each other so that while exponential growth is very fast logarithmic growth is very slow.  If the virus was growing logarithmically it wouldn't be a problem.  The vertical scale on his graphs is logarithmic and plotting an exponential function with a logarithmic vertical scale makes the graph look linear.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Arthur Ralfs said:

Note that Guillaume Albasini is confused about the growth of the virus which tends to be exponential not logarithmic.  The exponential and logarithm functions are inverse to each other so that while exponential growth is very fast logarithmic growth is very slow.  If the virus was growing logarithmically it wouldn't be a problem.  The vertical scale on his graphs is logarithmic and plotting an exponential function with a logarithmic vertical scale makes the graph look linear.

The exponential function e^x has its own natural log function and is relatively easy to integrate and differentiate.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Many confuse the above with algebraic growth - like x^2+2X-2

Edited March 28, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

The exponential function e^x has its own natural log function and is relatively easy to integrate and differentiate.

And rebuilding a Holley 780 double pumper is relatively easy, if you know what you’re doing...

 

[REAL Green + 65]

12 hours ago, 0R0 said:

"You don't open up all of the economy all of a sudden.. You wait for the crest to show up in the daily deaths and follow that figure for the metropolitan areas.  Dense Cities are fast propagating. Suburbia is slow propagating once you close schools and other dense gatherings. There is no reason to lock those areas down. Some precautions an limitations are sufficient.  Physical distancing and public surface sanitation are sufficient in low density population without public transport and mass gatherings. That is 60% of the US. The spread is slower speed. So the propagation wave that forms is flatter and does not overwhelm the medical system. That means 60% of US population X low death rate + 30% X high death rate."

I have been reading this for months and early on I told people this virus would not stay in China because of the global system was a vector for spread and mega urban areas perfect for rapid infection.  That should have been a no-brainer.  Many people ignored me and went on and on about this is just a flu.  Extreme measures are going to bite the world in the ass down the road because the economic side of the virus has a rate of infection and a damage rate so to speak.  We can already consider globalism wounded beyond what any of us can remember.  2008 is a cake walk compared to now.  The loss of production and the loss of system health through damaged confidence is huge.  In the short term it may not to appear to be an issue because the general public has this feeling this economic situation will pass just like 08.  The truth is we don't know how this will end economically but if we consider the consequences it appears the damage done will not be repairable in regards to a world we knew 6 months ago.  By the way that economic world was not great either with debt issue and economic bubbles.  Now we have the bubbles popped and debt issues surreal.  Debt is not definable now since there is so much talk about debt management and forgiveness.  What is the all-important price discovery mechanism anymore?  Risk is impact and likelihood.  I think risk is off the charts now.

 

The real risk issue is loss of actual economic activity.  The loss of things made cannot be repaired like financial contagions.  No amount of intervention will fix this.  Activity and potential for activity is gone.  This means that we dropped to a new systematic level in a frog boil or rapid freeze.  In science we can liken this economic situation to a phase change and bifurcation.  This was likely the first step with more to come as the consequences propagate.  So, the infection was organic and systematic.  The world order of things is being up ended as well and the virus has not even made its rounds.  It likely is going to surface in the developing world and southern Hemisphere as winter begins.  What many hoped is a temporary economic contagion will likely be a multiyear cascading risk factor.  I could be wrong, I hope.  Back in 08 I was wrong.  In 05 I began to follow the inconsistencies of the bubble economy then and peak oil.  The crisis came and went.  I was left in the wake of having invested myself in a collapse position that never materialized.  I am now more subdued to any collapse rhetoric becuase of this but I feel this time is likely different mainly becuase what happened in 08 was never cleaned up.  Now there is the damage done by the virus along with what was never cleaned up previously.  This multi-level contagion is probably more than the current world order can handle at least in regards to the old status quo of 6 months ago. 

 

My biggest concern now for a stabilized human system is food production.  This all happened so quick people forget just how difficult it is to grow and make food for 7BIL people plus how dangerous populations become after missing 9 meals.  We have a lot of food in the system.  There has been mainly logistic disruptions with for example restaurant food and retail.  Food is there but food stocks are being reduced as the vital northern Hemisphere food production year kicks off.  Planting windows are approaching.  We are an industrial agriculture civilization that has global monocultures with vast global systems of transport and capital services in a process much like global JIT manufacturing.  There is labor needed to produce food.  Many big farms are run by an older population at risk to the virus.  The good side of food production at the basic viral level is farms are in rural setting which should be spared some of the worst virus damage still the need of all the other aspects to food production have been hit hard.  This on top of several hard years of weather and recently trade conflicts.  This reminds me of how greens look at the carbon trap we are in with renewables.  Many greens pride themselves on not being involved with science denial of course until it comes to the solutions which when looked at economically, are absurd.  If we look at some of the ideas for geoengineering or economic New Deals, we see rampant science denial.  I think the virus is now our new denial narrative.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

9 hours ago, Arthur Ralfs said:

Note that Guillaume Albasini is confused about the growth of the virus which tends to be exponential not logarithmic.  The exponential and logarithm functions are inverse to each other so that while exponential growth is very fast logarithmic growth is very slow.  If the virus was growing logarithmically it wouldn't be a problem.  The vertical scale on his graphs is logarithmic and plotting an exponential function with a logarithmic vertical scale makes the graph look linear.

 

OK, you are right, it was more exponential growth shown on a logarithmic scale so I've just corrected the thread title to "exponential growth".  Sorry for the confusion.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

The problem with exponential growth is that you cannot "react to it". If a number of cases doubled every day (2^n .... 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.), let's say everyone would be infected in a given city on day 55, on which day half of the population would be infected? On day 54. On day 50, it would look that the whole town is perfectly healthy. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

“We can already consider globalism wounded beyond what any of us can remember.”

Personally I do not see any problem with driving a stake through the dark heart of globalism. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, REAL Green said:

I have been reading this for months and early on I told people this virus would not stay in China because of the global system was a vector for spread and mega urban areas perfect for rapid infection.  That should have been a no-brainer.  Many people ignored me and went on and on about this is just a flu.  Extreme measures are going to bite the world in the ass down the road because the economic side of the virus has a rate of infection and a damage rate so to speak.  We can already consider globalism wounded beyond what any of us can remember.  2008 is a cake walk compared to now.  The loss of production and the loss of system health through damaged confidence is huge.  In the short term it may not to appear to be an issue because the general public has this feeling this economic situation will pass just like 08.  The truth is we don't know how this will end economically but if we consider the consequences it appears the damage done will not be repairable in regards to a world we knew 6 months ago.  By the way that economic world was not great either with debt issue and economic bubbles.  Now we have the bubbles popped and debt issues surreal.  Debt is not definable now since there is so much talk about debt management and forgiveness.  What is the all-important price discovery mechanism anymore?  Risk is impact and likelihood.  I think risk is off the charts now.

 

The real risk issue is loss of actual economic activity.  The loss of things made cannot be repaired like financial contagions.  No amount of intervention will fix this.  Activity and potential for activity is gone.  This means that we dropped to a new systematic level in a frog boil or rapid freeze.  In science we can liken this economic situation to a phase change and bifurcation.  This was likely the first step with more to come as the consequences propagate.  So, the infection was organic and systematic.  The world order of things is being up ended as well and the virus has not even made its rounds.  It likely is going to surface in the developing world and southern Hemisphere as winter begins.  What many hoped is a temporary economic contagion will likely be a multiyear cascading risk factor.  I could be wrong, I hope.  Back in 08 I was wrong.  In 05 I began to follow the inconsistencies of the bubble economy then and peak oil.  The crisis came and went.  I was left in the wake of having invested myself in a collapse position that never materialized.  I am now more subdued to any collapse rhetoric becuase of this but I feel this time is likely different mainly becuase what happened in 08 was never cleaned up.  Now there is the damage done by the virus along with what was never cleaned up previously.  This multi-level contagion is probably more than the current world order can handle at least in regards to the old status quo of 6 months ago. 

 

My biggest concern now for a stabilized human system is food production.  This all happened so quick people forget just how difficult it is to grow and make food for 7BIL people plus how dangerous populations become after missing 9 meals.  We have a lot of food in the system.  There has been mainly logistic disruptions with for example restaurant food and retail.  Food is there but food stocks are being reduced as the vital northern Hemisphere food production year kicks off.  Planting windows are approaching.  We are an industrial agriculture civilization that has global monocultures with vast global systems of transport and capital services in a process much like global JIT manufacturing.  There is labor needed to produce food.  Many big farms are run by an older population at risk to the virus.  The good side of food production at the basic viral level is farms are in rural setting which should be spared some of the worst virus damage still the need of all the other aspects to food production have been hit hard.  This on top of several hard years of weather and recently trade conflicts.  This reminds me of how greens look at the carbon trap we are in with renewables.  Many greens pride themselves on not being involved with science denial of course until it comes to the solutions which when looked at economically, are absurd.  If we look at some of the ideas for geoengineering or economic New Deals, we see rampant science denial.  I think the virus is now our new denial narrative.

I don't think we have a food issue from the production side, but hoarding has created an excess demand side that has caused some countries to ban exports of food. Which is a problem for the 1 billion people around the world living on imported food. China did damage its vegetable crops to an extent and badly damaged its bird population and hogs. Food inflation for Feb. was 20% in China. More to come. They lifted the quarantine just in time for the spring planting season. 

Nobody is planning to ban agricultural activity, it is universally considered "essential". The big problem is for farmers who get migrant labor up from Mexico and have not managed to obtain domestic labor at any reasonable pay level. Somehow, I don't see 3 million bar tenders and waiters who were just fired taking the jalopy down to the farm to do some field prep and planting. 

I think this has entirely broken the optimized global supply chain sole sourcing key components and materials from China. The current version of globalization is over. While it was on the wane already well before, it is not step functioned away from gradual decline and corporate resistance to the new "China free" supply chains championed by Trump, to the corporate leaders desperately pushing to build substitute capital to allow regional sourcing of everything they buy in China.

Look at flextronic's Wisconsin plant after the quarantine is lifted to see if they are hiring trainees towards bringing in Apple product manufacturing from China. I expect they will eventually halt production for export in their giant factory. 

I am looking for export orders from China to fall steadily going forward. Starting with easy to make pharmaceuticals. And expanding to critical optical components, and Molycorp's old Neodymium rare earths mine. There will be demand for certified China free supply chains both for the public's demands and for business, particularly those that want actual business interruption insurance. That has so fat not covered pandemics. The existing China based supply chain has proven to be way too fragile and was already unattractive due to higher wage rates and sporadic denial of materials or components for political extortion purposes by the CCP. If China were not toast before due to its demographics, it will be now. 

I think it has become untennable for any country's political system to allow dependency on imported key drugs and medical basics. The hospitals will have to get out of the supply sourcing co-op business that has created this shortage in medical supplies. And US businesses producing them will be protected by ever diminishing quotas on imports. 

I can say that the "experts" failed us at both extremes. in downplaying the virus at first and overplaying it with waves of hysteria, especially after Nial Fergusson's much inflated report that ignored people's modified behavior. The scientists managed to be both right and wrong at the same time. While the government scientists fell flat on their face with no realistic understanding of the situation. Particularly the FDA and CDC. Both agencies seem hell bent on prohibiting anything the medical community needs to deal with the outbreak. Time to restructure them and rework their methods and goals. 

 

 

[REAL Green + 65]

34 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

"I don't think we have a food issue from the production side"

I agree...yet...if farmers, which need a farm economy, don't get going key planing windows will be missed.  If this happens in many areas we might have serious global food issues.  I would say now is the time to make AG a critical industry for Gov support around the world.  A financial crisis is one thing a food crisis is quite another.

[Marcin2 + 726]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

And rebuilding a Holley 780 double pumper is relatively easy, if you know what you’re doing...

 

It was a joke by @Enthalpic cause integral of e^x is e^x+C

Back in communist times, during student manifestations in Poland it was one of tricks to uncover secret police guys disguised as students.

You asked the guy what is integral of e^x or similar obvious question, he did not know he was beaten if he was not fast enough to take out his ID.

[0R0 + 6,251]

https://covidtracking.com/data/

CA still at just under 20% positive tests

NY and NJ still at 30% positive

You can give NY and NJ a while to finish the spread of the disease to the rest of the population (60%) who have not had it yet. A couple of days with subway traffic would do it. 

Time for the antibody test to let us know who is likely already immune.

New Abbott labs test kit for 5 to 15 minute tests.for live virus.

https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-03-27-Abbott-Launches-Molecular-Point-of-Care-Test-to-Detect-Novel-Coronavirus-in-as-Little-as-Five-Minutes

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ 7.8 billion people in the world. 

7,800,000,000  vs, 31,000 deaths from covid 19 so far.

360,000 babies are born each day. 

Perspective is important. Economics is important. 

Hysteria is a stupid waste of time, energy, discussion, etc. and leads to very poor decisions.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

7 hours ago, 0R0 said:

https://covidtracking.com/data/

 

From your link these numbers are nuts.

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

How do you even triage and admit 2500 people per day let alone treat them?  10,000+ in hospital just for this let alone everything else?

People kindly delay your childbirth, heart attack, or cancer for the next 6 months...

Hip and knee replacements are delayed indefinitely unless super rich. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Thankfully I'm engaged and get it on the regular - poor guys still using tinder only get e-laid.

We needed some comic relief

Edited March 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

We now return to your regular death broadcasting