Covid-19 exponential growth

[Rob Plant + 2,755]

44 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

What a couple of idiots. They're just making up numbers and pretending they are representative.

I'll do one better. As of yesterday, the US and 1,032 deaths and 394 recoveries from COVID-19. Using these cherry picked numbers, you get a mortality rate of 72.4%. Is 72.4% bullshit? Of course it's bullshit. And I'm not making up wild assumptions like they are.

Learn to read with a critical mind. Stop copy and pasting propaganda.

Most of the countries that are testing testing and testing again are showing a mortality rate of 2-3%. Those that aren't properly testing range from 0.01% - 0.2% these figures are just BS and should not be believed.

[Marcin2 + 725]

Good domestic situation, low umemployment gave Trump significant room for his adventures. Now Trump faces first crisis , not of his own manufacturing and has to concentrate on CoVID19.

Trump is good in spectacular destroying of existing fabric: be it trade relations with every world country or foreign sanctions.

He is bad in choosing right people to work in Administration and US President role is in 80% CEO of US role. Only YES Men surround him.

Helicopter money is only kicking the can down the road and unintented consequences of each stimulus mount.

Money at 0% cost for 12 years and counting together with bail outs destroyed economic choice.

Each CEO is appraised on the basis of how much money he can pump in NYSE gambling table through buybacks the rest is just secondary objective.

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

Just now, Rob Plant said:

Most of the countries that are testing testing and testing again are showing a mortality rate of 2-3%. Those that aren't properly testing range from 0.01% - 0.2% these figures are just BS and should not be believed.

That's right. My hunch (and it's just a hunch) is that the German figures of ~0.5% are close to being true. They have fairly widely tested, and it's roughly 10x less than Italy. My reasoning is that even if 90% of Italians get it without symptoms, that would bring the mortality rate in Italy down to around 0.5%.

Again, there is nothing firm about any of these numbers and they aren't taking into account other variables. I don't think that 0.5% to 1% as an opening assumption will prove to be too far off the mark.

[TooSteep + 142]

7 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

No, actually there's less control of the top over the bottom in China then in America.  The top can enact decrees, but when they're not the bottom is doing whatever it wants to. Hence the massive amount of corruption there.  Without a federalized system, there's actually less control of the bottom from the top because information gets bottlenecked up the chain of bureaucracy.  Lack of freedom of press compounds the problem.

There are two bedrock principles of civilization:

1. Freedom of expression; Freedom of speech

2. Independent judiciary and the rule of law; Freedom FROM the state

 

Without these principles in place, the local doctors, scientists, lab techs and public health officials were not allowed to do the same things they would have done in every free country. That is indisputable fact. When a person is more worried about being 'black vanned' by the unaccountable security apparatus of the state, then they are about marshaling resources into action to prevent a potential disastrous viral outbreak, well, we now know the consequences.

I have read there are 2,000,000 CCP workers scouring the internet worldwide, making sure the CCP propaganda is pushed everywhere. Here are their recent instructions:

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1238076579466674178/photo/2

Click on the right page to blow it up and read it.

Edited March 26, 2020 by TooSteep

[TooSteep + 142]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

That's right. My hunch (and it's just a hunch) is that the German figures of ~0.5% are close to being true. They have fairly widely tested, and it's roughly 10x less than Italy. My reasoning is that even if 90% of Italians get it without symptoms, that would bring the mortality rate in Italy down to around 0.5%.

Again, there is nothing firm about any of these numbers and they aren't taking into account other variables. I don't think that 0.5% to 1% as an opening assumption will prove to be too far off the mark.

I have read a lot of different opinions putting the CFR in the 0.5-0.8% range. Let's call it 0.8%, so about 8 time higher than seasonal flu.

Thought experiment: If we all 'knew' this to be true, what would the public response be? Particularly give the mitigating factors that without any existing immunity, all of the deaths were going to come in a 3-week window, instead of spread out over 6 months. And the infection rate this first 'season' would be higher than flu. During this peak window, daily deaths might be 64-192 times higher than seasonal flu. Hospital systems would clearly be completely overwhelmed for the 3-week window.

What should the response be?

 

[Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas + 96]

2 hours ago, TooSteep said:

I have read a lot of different opinions putting the CFR in the 0.5-0.8% range. Let's call it 0.8%, so about 8 time higher than seasonal flu.

Thought experiment: If we all 'knew' this to be true, what would the public response be? Particularly give the mitigating factors that without any existing immunity, all of the deaths were going to come in a 3-week window, instead of spread out over 6 months.

Two flaws in your reasoning:

(1) The virus won't infect everyone instantly.  All deaths in a 3-week window is stupid nonsense.

(2) If governments did nothing, people would still isolate themselves, cancel travel, or in some other way
try to protect themselves.  Even when governments enact "qurarantines" and "lockdowns", people still
violate that.  As the economy worsens, more people will refuse to obey the quarantines/lockdowns.

Governments can even unintentionally increase the virus spreading.
https://www.rferl.org/a/chaos-anger-in-kyiv-amid-coronavirus-subway-closure/30497644.html

Edited March 26, 2020 by Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 3/24/2020 at 4:51 AM, Geoff Guenther said:

Eisenhower once said "Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable." Even when you don't know something you have to plan contingencies to make sure you stay ahead of it.

A proper pandemic response looks urgent, because it focuses on reducing the possibility of extreme measures, like a lockdown .  Focus on suppressing the virus so life can go on with a minimal amount of disruption.

1. Testing, testing, testing. We need to be able to test a million people within one month. Don't wait two months until providing adequate testing resource.
   1. Temperature screening at high density places - airports, metro, highrises, hospitals, etc.
   2. Temperature screening when crossing state lines, with potential of further testing if necessary
   3. All suspicious deaths should be reported and tested
   4. Tests results back as quickly as possible - through local labs, not national ones
2. Tracking of interactions
   1. Who has this infected individual interacted with?
3. Set up temporary international travel bans (local ones only if necessary)
4. Set up isolation units. If people are test positive you shouldn't send them back home to infect the other members of their family, they should be put up in a hotel or a place where they can be taken care of without risk to others.
5. Surge hospital capability! We hope we don't have to use this, but has to be in place in case the above fails.
   1. Emergency supplies for hospitals. 10% of Italian cases are healthcare workers. Use whatever means necessary to provide masks - including n95, n99, and surgical masks to the front line. 2 days of emergency reserve masks is woefully inadequate and must be fixed.
   2. Increase bed capacity in expected hotspots.
   3. Call for volunteers who would like to be trained to help on the front line. Preference given to anyone who has already recovered.
6. Surge medical research around the coronavirus including pressuring China to allow US CDC or WHO staff to the frontlines
7. Create a program to ensure that people who have no insurance are assured free tests and free medical care for dealing with the disease. Without this cases are unreported because people can't afford the hospital bill.
   1. An addendum to this. No one who becomes ill because of COVID-19 is to lose their job. While Right-to-Work is State law, work with the states to suspend it.
8. Finally, educate the public with a consistent AND accurate message.
   1. They need to know the actual support the government and businesses are providing
   2. They need to know that someone is taking things seriously on their behalf
   3. The numbers and websites they need to know
   4. Social distancing and how do we do it
   5. What the next step is if social distancing fails (and it will fail in localities)

While all of this is costly, it is cheap in comparison to shutting down a city or a country. The UK is now in lockdown, and the cost of that will be orders of magnitude greater than getting the above basics in place.

Governments should be acting like they might be going to war, do everything in their power to avert that war, but also prepare themselves if the war arrives. Their citizens also deserve to have access true information and understand their decisions rather than be subjected to constant spin.

Congrats on your 20/20 hindsight. I guess those glasses on your face are to attract the chicks? 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 3/24/2020 at 4:57 AM, Qanoil said:

Seems relevant here.

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1238076579466674178

@frankfurter here's your modus operandi to a T. 

I'll be watching for your next new identity since you've pretty much blown the last several. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Congrats on your 20/20 hindsight. I guess those glasses on your face are to attract the chicks? 

What hindsight? I don't know why anyone thinks this is rocket science.  This is Project Management 101 - it's the way any half-assed Project Manager would run a project.  That is:

If I had a complex spreadsheet whose accuracy meant that 100,000 people would live or die, I would damn well put in contingencies.

Everything in that list would be in your average pandemic handbook. You put mitigations in place because you ARE going to be wrong and you don't want to kill people and ruin your economy. Anyone who has managed a project would understand this.

Anyone who thinks a pandemic response team wouldn't have thought of these after they'd been involved with multiple epidemics is lying to themselves.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

22 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

What hindsight? I don't know why anyone thinks this is rocket science.  This is Project Management 101 - it's the way any half-assed Project Manager would run a project.  That is:

If I had a complex spreadsheet whose accuracy meant that 100,000 people would live or die, I would damn well put in contingencies.

Everything in that list would be in your average pandemic handbook. You put mitigations in place because you ARE going to be wrong and you don't want to kill people and ruin your economy. Anyone who has managed a project would understand this.

Anyone who thinks a pandemic response team wouldn't have thought of these after they'd been involved with multiple epidemics is lying to themselves.

As the CEO who had project managers like you under me, instant rejection of 30% slop for "contingencies". Either you can deliver a reasonable budget with reasonable numbers or you can't. SWAG numbers are just guesses. 

This virus is a Frankenstein and I believe cooked up in a lab. No other virus hides out for up to a month before reproducing enmass in the body. That's not "natural selection" that's selecting from a cafeteria of different viri properties and assembling the frankenvirus. Therefore, your #1 above is worse than useless because of all the false negatives. Asymptomatic and highly infectious carriers are slipping right through your sieve. Meanwhile due to the false negatives, society is doing worse, not better. Congrats President Guenther, you've killed Millions. But yeah, Trump's an idiot, as long as there's a brainwashed and brainwashing DNC MSM, they'll push that narrative. 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

20 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

But yeah, Trump's an idiot, as long as there's a brainwashed and brainwashing DNC MSM, they'll push that narrative. 

I've seen too many companies collapse because of lack of understanding their risks. Bravo, you're a CEO. Same here. Big whoop - that takes balls, not brains.

Here you are defending Trump.  The guy who parrotted China's lies that everything was under control so he didn't have to take any action.  Guess what, the US now has the most confirmed cases in the world and its cases are doubling faster than any other country in the world, bar Turkey.

Massive lack of leadership. And I don't see any strategy about how to fix it. He undermines any staffer who understands anything.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

14 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

This virus is a Frankenstein and I believe cooked up in a lab.

It certainly doesn't appear to pass the smell test as just another cruel act of nature. Everyone who has worked with viruses--especially Influenza--has been amazed with their ability to mutate to "fit" their host DNA, but this bad boy is something else. One of my best friends used to head that CDC rapid response team, first under Clinton, then under Bush's newly formed Homeland Security. He is slow to criticize how this has been managed for the very reasons you articulate. In fact, I get the impression that they're all about half relieved that team wasn't the "fall guy" for this mess. 

All in all, with that early travel ban (highly criticized at the time) and with the $2T stimulus package (heavily laden with left-flank pork there for a while), I'd have to give Mr. Trump an A. His missteps could have been anyone's missteps. One mustn't forget that President Xi not only lied to us about it not being person-to-person transmissible but also sent forth a diaspora of infected people so the whole world could sink economically. Then, to add insult to injury, old medical supply links were suddenly broached. By the time we looked up from our knitting, this thing was out the door.

I don't have any doubt that one of a thousand men or women could have handled this better . . . using today's knowledge. Using what he had, I believe the president has done exceptionally well, and so does most of the country.

Even this mess in NYC isn't Trump's fault. NY has had ample time to study their state Medicare/Medicaid program and see where the weak links were. According to the Wall Street Journal, I believe it was 27 hospitals that have closed in the greater NYC area during the last few years, due to inability to stay open with the paltry Medicaid payments made to them. Doctors have been forced to turn away Medicaid patients--reimbursement was about a third of Medicare (which was already low). I have empathy for their plight up there, but a lot of the blame has to be born by NY not seeing before that "we're all in this together." 

[Geoff Guenther + 317]

1 minute ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

NY has had ample time to study their state Medicare/Medicaid program and see where the weak links were. According to the Wall Street Journal, I believe it was 27 hospitals that have closed in the greater NYC area during the last few years, due to inability to stay open with the paltry Medicaid payments made to them. Doctors have been forced to turn away Medicaid patients--reimbursement was about a third of Medicare (which was already low). I have empathy for their plight up there, but a lot of the blame has to be born by NY not seeing before that "we're all in this together." 

The interesting thing here is that, although viruses spread faster in densly-populated areas, flus kill more people in rural areas. Much of the reason is because of non-access to any hospital. Meanwhile, infections are still doubling every 2-3 days across the country.

As much empathy as I have for NY, we're about to discover what "we are all in this together" really means...

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

49 minutes ago, Geoff Guenther said:

As much empathy as I have for NY, we're about to discover what "we are all in this together" really means...

Alas, I fear you are right. 

And it's a damn shame to see anyone die for lack of a ventilator. 

Well, Elon Musk is doing his part to help out, that's for sure. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Geoff Guenther said:

I've seen too many companies collapse because of lack of understanding their risks. Bravo, you're a CEO. Same here. Big whoop - that takes balls, not brains.

Here you are defending Trump.  The guy who parrotted China's lies that everything was under control so he didn't have to take any action.  Guess what, the US now has the most confirmed cases in the world and its cases are doubling faster than any other country in the world, bar Turkey.

Massive lack of leadership. And I don't see any strategy about how to fix it. He undermines any staffer who understands anything.

I don't think it counts as a CEO if it's just you and your keyboard. 

Trump should have declared war on China? Should have called Xi a liar so they'd declare war on us? Should have sent our CDC over there for a firsthand view, oh wait, he tried to but they weren't Allowed into the country! But yeah, Trump's fault.

You're just a broken record or a broken clock, only right once a day (and once a night).

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

36 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I don't think it counts as a CEO if it's just you and your keyboard. 

Now Ward, tsk tsk, could you just lay off Geoff? 

You know, tit for tat, and all that. 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

A high number of hospital beds per capita could be one of the factors explaining the lower mortality rate in South Korea and Germany...

 

[frankfurter + 562]

5 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

@frankfurter here's your modus operandi to a T. 

I'll be watching for your next new identity since you've pretty much blown the last several. 

very interesting.  so, you believe the source is reputable and the contents are true?  I have a few similar documents in my possession, amounting to the same contents more or less, respecting USA and UK.  I do not post such, because I find it all dubious, and because my standards are not to use hearsay to attempt to smear anyone, as you are so fond to do.  only the most ignorant, racist, vile person would try to use shit like this against someone. 

[TooSteep + 142]

7 hours ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

Two flaws in your reasoning:

(1) The virus won't infect everyone instantly.  All deaths in a 3-week window is stupid nonsense.

(2) If governments did nothing, people would still isolate themselves, cancel travel, or in some other way
try to protect themselves.  Even when governments enact "qurarantines" and "lockdowns", people still
violate that.  As the economy worsens, more people will refuse to obey the quarantines/lockdowns.

Governments can even unintentionally increase the virus spreading.
https://www.rferl.org/a/chaos-anger-in-kyiv-amid-coronavirus-subway-closure/30497644.html

You are missing my point entirely.

I am asking the question: what if there were a pandemic where the CFR were to be 'reasonably small' (compared to other causes of death), but due to S0 being 100% (the entire population is susceptible because it is a novel pathogen), and R0 high ( >= 3) that all the deaths occur in a shockingly brief window (small enough to overwhelm health resources) - what is the correct public response?

Of course people will adapt on their own. And of course, left to panic with no proper planning, governments are going to take actions that make it worse(I can see several scenarios where closing schools are making this worse - we have no idea without data). That's not my point. I would like to know 'where' a total shutdown of society is warranted? What are the scenarios that make it acceptable?

Why are we locking everyone down here? Because we believe there would be an apocalyptic CFR if it were left unchecked? Because it's nasty and S0 and R0 are really high? (And yes, using simple SIR modeling, it is easy to see where nearly the entire population can be infected at once when this is true)

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by TooSteep

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

41 minutes ago, frankfurter said:

very interesting.  so, you believe the source is reputable and the contents are true?  I have a few similar documents in my possession, amounting to the same contents more or less, respecting USA and UK.  I do not post such, because I find it all dubious, and because my standards are not to use hearsay to attempt to smear anyone, as you are so fond to do.  only the most ignorant, racist, vile person would try to use shit like this against someone. 

I see you're using methods 7 and 8. You really need to work on your 9 and 10. Times must be really stressful for you. You should ask for a raise from wumao pittance. 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 3/22/2020 at 6:30 PM, Guillaume Albasini said:

Spanish newspaper El Pais published an article comparing the logarithmic growth of the covid-19 cases around the world.

 

Bold curve = number of cases

Thin curve = number of deaths

Superior dotted line = number of cases double in 2 days

Inferior dotted line = number of cases double in 3 days

Red line = increase 10 times in less than 10 days

Yellow curve = increase 10 times in between 10 and 20 days

Green curve = increase 10 times in more than 20 days.

 

 

CHINA

ITALY

USA

SPAIN

GERMANY

IRAN

FRANCE

SOUTH KOREA

SWITZERLAND

UNITED KINGDOM

 

These curves can give an idea of how the different countries are managing the spread of the virus. However the accuracy of these curves depends also on the quality of the data and for the number of cases on the number of diagnostic tests done.

You'll find the curves for many other countries in the article :

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/21/actualidad/1584819543_395549.html

 

interesting.  I know of exponential growth, but this is the first time I encounter logarithmic growth. Is this valid?  Both are functions, but the exponent gives a result in real numbers. A logarithm is the inverse of the exponent. An inverse function measures growth?  More like the inverse function assists analysis, such as graphic plotting on a logarithmic scale. 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

@Marcin2
 

Have you looked at the Malaysian numbers lately?

 

[zextaz + 20]

all that is required is a gov that ask/force plastic industry to team up with medical business and hi tech business (intel or amd) to work on massive 3d printing of plastic respiratory devices including small plastic bed GE could make electric motor and tesla provide battery required to make emergency help support to help ppl recover in case this crisis keep growing . this could save millions and then get exported eventually as a business plan it will required a lot of oil if the numbers are accurate (i personally doubt) but if 1-2 out of every 10 ppl die getting that virus and its super virulent (its already all over the world and keep growing) if we don't make teams of industrial ppl to prevent 10-20% lost of humanity (since numbers are showing this rate of date and no stop to growth) the current world order will collapse. 

[zextaz + 20]

if the world order collapse the virus will be the second problem and the problem of this collapse will be worst in world health and survival than the once caused by this virus

[zextaz + 20]

if this get controlled i hope next investment plan will be to have enough plastic mask and devices to provide for all human living in each country to ensure that every nation is ready to fight a war against bacteria or virus and have enough medical protective device to secure population to prevent a total collapse of their economy