BL

Saudi Aramco struggling to raise money for this year's dividend of $75 billion. Now trying to sell their pipelines for $10 billion.

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(edited)

Tough with $22 brent

Their pipeline  is vulnerable to attack  for 100's of miles.  Why would someone want to invest in such a risky asset, in a riskycountry,  in the risky ME.

Their hope is to get U.S. investor to further U.S. support to defend their oil infrastructure.

Still don't understand U.S. Sending thousand of troops and Patriot Missile Systems to Saudi Arabia when they are openly trying to destroy U.S. oil industry .   .   .   .   again.

Today Trump said he talked to both Putin and MBS about oil price. 

Edited by BLA
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I have no knowledge of their pipelines - are they underground?

 

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Above ground any simpleton can damage the line for $250

Ground-penetrating missile mission from a fancy airplane is probably $120,000

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17 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I have no knowledge of their pipelines - are they underground?

 

I don't think any of it is, maybe bits. Last year (May 2019) there was a drone attack on pumping stations of the Abqaiq-Yanbu pipeline which takes oil to refineries on the Red Sea. These attacks are probably quite frequent and probably limited in the damage they do. But regardless we rarely hear about them.

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KSA is covered in pipelines, and there are strategic reserves in tanks on the west coast to allow for shipping while the major east/west pipeline is down for a bit.

KSA also ships by tanker to itself. Go to the southwest and you'll see tankers unloading. 

The far bigger short term risk is water pipelines from desal facilities. Imagine Riyadh without water. 

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12 hours ago, El Nikko said:

I don't think any of it is, maybe bits. Last year (May 2019) there was a drone attack on pumping stations of the Abqaiq-Yanbu pipeline which takes oil to refineries on the Red Sea. These attacks are probably quite frequent and probably limited in the damage they do. But regardless we rarely hear about them.

In the case of that attack on the pumping station , very suspicious.  Some believe self inflicted.

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Don't forget the pipelines have compressors and those are above ground and will be at various points along the line.  Knock some of them out and the pipeline stops working.  

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The bigger issue is what American companies are facing in China right now. Possession is 9/10ths of the law, and even though ownership is in the US, the Chinese have effectively requisitioned those factories for their own purposes. 

Imagine "owning" pipelines in Saudi Arabia and expecting to have any control. You'd have to bring in an army to defend your position. Hmm, anyone reminded of the true Powers of the British Empire? Not some foppish royals, but entities like the East India Company. Corporate armies wearing national uniforms. 

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(edited)

3 hours ago, John Foote said:

KSA is covered in pipelines, and there are strategic reserves in tanks on the west coast to allow for shipping while the major east/west pipeline is down for a bit.

KSA also ships by tanker to itself. Go to the southwest and you'll see tankers unloading. 

The far bigger short term risk is water pipelines from desal facilities. Imagine Riyadh without water. 

MBS dreamed of an International mega IPO for Aramco, even though many Saudi leaders objected.  I believe same Iack of  interest in buying the  pipelines.  

Watch what happens when Aramco stock goes off lockup in June.

No outside international  investor will buy assets inside Saudi Arabia at this time, maybe forever.   Too risky.

I believe Blackstone Hedge Fund bought an UAE pipeline a while back.  Things have changed since then. 

Edited by BLA
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MbS is about to discover how utterly alone in the world he now is. 

Gonna be fun to watch!

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29 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

MbS is about to discover how utterly alone in the world he now is. 

Gonna be fun to watch!

Will Trump still support MBS militarily ?

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7 minutes ago, BLA said:

Will Trump still support MBS militarily ?

Read the news guys and stop imagining what might happen. You guys need to go to the Hill and tell them how to do it.

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4 hours ago, BLA said:

MBS dreamed of an International mega IPO for Aramco, even though many Saudi leaders objected.  I believe same Iack of  interest in buying the  pipelines.  

Aramco loves building pipelines, not an MBS thing. It's a way of spreading the cash. Drive towards Al Hasa from Dammam and you'll see literally billions of dollars in pipe laying around, waiting for yet another project. It's one of the strangest things I have ever seen in my life. 

MBS will continue to get international support of a sort as long as there is money in doing so. But fundamental allies? I can't think of any.

There is no one around to invade the KSA. Syria? They couldn't even hold off ISIS until Russia came forward. Iraq ceased being a proper state some time ago. Iran is a capable at asymmetric war, especially using proxies, but they couldn't launch a true conventional invasion. 

The great threat to KSA is itself. 

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3 minutes ago, John Foote said:

Aramco loves building pipelines, not an MBS thing. It's a way of spreading the cash. Drive towards Al Hasa from Dammam and you'll see literally billions of dollars in pipe laying around, waiting for yet another project. It's one of the strangest things I have ever seen in my life. 

MBS will continue to get international support of a sort as long as there is money in doing so. But fundamental allies? I can't think of any.

There is no one around to invade the KSA. Syria? They couldn't even hold off ISIS until Russia came forward. Iraq ceased being a proper state some time ago. Iran is a capable at asymmetric war, especially using proxies, but they couldn't launch a true conventional invasion. 

The great threat to KSA is itself. 

Will MBS still be around 5 years from now ?

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6 minutes ago, BLA said:

Will MBS still be around 5 years from now ?

I think we'd have to ask his brothers?

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1 minute ago, BLA said:

Will MBS still be around 5 years from now ?

He is willing to be brutal, it wouldn't surprise me.

It wouldn't be the first prosperous country to go down the shitter and keep the leadership. How is Venezuela doing, and the same guy who's led there race to poverty is still in charge, and the fools there elected him. MBS has the advantage of an absolute monarchy. 

Now will the country be in deep trouble in five years, probably.  

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35 minutes ago, John Foote said:

He is willing to be brutal, it wouldn't surprise me.

It wouldn't be the first prosperous country to go down the shitter and keep the leadership. How is Venezuela doing, and the same guy who's led there race to poverty is still in charge, and the fools there elected him. MBS has the advantage of an absolute monarchy. 

Now will the country be in deep trouble in five years, probably.  

Chavez selected Maduro because the guy was a bus driver with an eighth grade education. He figured Maduro would be no threat, ever. He didn't figure on getting cancer and dying. Now they've literally got a moron in charge. 

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22 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Chavez selected Maduro because the guy was a bus driver with an eighth grade education. He figured Maduro would be no threat, ever. He didn't figure on getting cancer and dying. Now they've literally got a moron in charge. 

MBS has an In-Kingdom education. Can you imagine the tutor who'd try and correct him? 

He does have an older half brother with a western PhD who is quite sharp, but not politically inclined.

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4 hours ago, John Foote said:

MBS has an In-Kingdom education. Can you imagine the tutor who'd try and correct him? 

He does have an older half brother with a western PhD who is quite sharp, but not politically inclined.

Actually, a very interesting and informative tidbit there.

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(edited)

On 3/31/2020 at 1:50 PM, BLA said:

Will Trump still support MBS militarily ?

This morning Sen. Cramer  SD (R) was on a call with the President about pulling our military aid from KSA/MBS.  

I feel we should.  Why should we be propping him up with military support when he's initiated an attack against us economically.  Now we couldn't pull all our fighters we've sold them, but we could upload a 'patch' that disables the weapons & ECM.ECCM platforms.  Ditto for the Patriot & THAAD missile batteries over there.

The President should direct SoS Pompeo to deliver a message to MBS; giving him 24 hrs. to call off this price war and instruct Aramco to reduce outputs too pre-price war levels, with a further reduction to be negotiated between KSA/Russia & Texas. Or we take measures listed above.  MBS knows he's not well regarded in the region.  He also knows, without those 'toys'; his grip on the throne will slip through his oil slogged fingers...

 

Edited by Prometheus1354
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(edited)

1 hour ago, Prometheus1354 said:

This morning Sen. Cramer  SD (R) was on a call with the President about pulling our military aid from KSA/MBS.  

I feel we should.  Why should we be propping him up with military support when he's initiated an attack against us economically. 

It looks like they did get the message across.  Saudis calling for an emergency meeting of OPEC+

Don't know if it helps.  Worth a try. 

Edited by BLA
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The cuts are coming, agreed to or not. 

The old saying, you can't stuff 10 lbs of shit into a 5 lb bag.

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18 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

This morning Sen. Cramer  SD (R) was on a call with the President about pulling our military aid from KSA/MBS. 

Source?

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18 hours ago, Prometheus1354 said:

This morning Sen. Cramer  SD (R) was on a call with the President about pulling our military aid from KSA/MBS.

That would be wonderful news.  Please provide a link or source.

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2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

That would be wonderful news.  Please provide a link or source.

The call was mentioned during an interview of the Senator on CNBC yesterday morning 

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