Tom Kirkman

Trump will meet with executives in the energy industry to discuss the impact of COVID-19

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15 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

No, no, no!!!! The 2 x 4bbl intake manifold with the 2 500 cfm Edelbrocks!

Baby Steps I know...........¬†ūü§£

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(edited)

2 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Baby Steps I know...........¬†ūü§£

2x4 carbs is NOT a baby step! It is old school cool and would have that old Y-block Ford...SCREAMING!

Edited by Douglas Buckland
None of your business!
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13 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

 

I am abnormal; failure to understand me makes simpletons think I am an idiot. I assure you I can take you to school...

How'd you ever get in school? 

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On 4/4/2020 at 10:11 AM, Prometheus1354 said:

Right now all members need to get on board with not only immediate cuts. They also need to address the underlying issues that lead to this mess.

OPEC + and Texas must start working in a more homogenous manner lest the industry continue too eat it's young...

Hopefully somewhere in these talks is what to do with/about Iran (Persia) & Venezuela.  Both have vast reserves and train wreck economies.  Neither at the moment has an ideal governmental situation available for negotiations; but we can't let that stand in the way of possibly grasping the bull by the horns. Establishing workable rules by which the industry moves forward post COVID-19.

Maybe the Presidents staff work well enough with their Russian counterparts, that rough edges between Putin & MBS are tempered. Whereby those issues that caused them to walk away from the table, are removed allowing everyone to sit down and hammer out a workable resolution. Before we've crossed the 'event horizon' thus casting all into a blackhole from which no one escapes...

Precisely the opposite

The industry should remain in a free market with low cost producers leading the market. That does include the better shale players and even the not so good ones, once leases get renegotiated and debt swapped for equity. Terms that were negotiated at $100+ oil are not realistic for a world where the price is half that and where NG and LNG are driving out diesel. 

I don't support any cooperation with OPEC+ other than using the space in the SPR and allowing additional storage to come online with no red tape. Cheap oil is good for the US in general. It is a boon. If storing oil for the future caps oil costs for the economy for years to come then the US will be all the better for it. Keeping the current crop of asset owners in the shale patch afloat financially is not a national priority. Getting their lease and debt structures reformed is a positive outcome for the Shale patch. It will dezombify the industry.

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(edited)

7 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

How'd you ever get in school? 

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The far side is always funny even if it is mocking me.

I am gifted but also blond.

Edited by Enthalpic

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16 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Precisely the opposite

The industry should remain in a free market with low cost producers leading the market. That does include the better shale players and even the not so good ones, once leases get renegotiated and debt swapped for equity. Terms that were negotiated at $100+ oil are not realistic for a world where the price is half that and where NG and LNG are driving out diesel. 

I don't support any cooperation with OPEC+ other than using the space in the SPR and allowing additional storage to come online with no red tape. Cheap oil is good for the US in general. It is a boon. If storing oil for the future caps oil costs for the economy for years to come then the US will be all the better for it. Keeping the current crop of asset owners in the shale patch afloat financially is not a national priority. Getting their lease and debt structures reformed is a positive outcome for the Shale patch. It will dezombify the industry.

So, by this measure of thought; you are 'OK' with the glut? 'OK' with the parties involved pumping as much as they can the devil may care...

I have no argument with your point about clearing the deck of those who are not financially viable and leveraged beyond good measure.  I am all for the market dictating those who win and those who lose.  

My point about working in a homogenous manner; was with respect too the major players pullin their cranial orbs from their rectal cavities; ceasing the idiocy that is dictating actions at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, Prometheus1354 said:

So, by this measure of thought; you are 'OK' with the glut? 'OK' with the parties involved pumping as much as they can the devil may care...

I have no argument with your point about clearing the deck of those who are not financially viable and leveraged beyond good measure.  I am all for the market dictating those who win and those who lose.  

My point about working in a homogenous manner; was with respect too the major players pullin their cranial orbs from their rectal cavities; ceasing the idiocy that is dictating actions at the moment.

Essentially, all the Pres needs to do in the US is provide a temporary anti trust exemption if he can figure out how to do it. He does not need to have policy involved. Rent out the SPR is plenty and give legal cover for a couple of months for collusion with OPEC+. But I am not for that option. I prefer an open market. I don't believe "idiocy" is at play. MBS is trying clearly to plug in Russian outlets so that they forced to shut down the same production they had resisted closing before. It is not that hard to see how this works on the NE Europe and Mediterranean markets which take up half the output and where Russia is practically selling nothing. I don't know how much storage Russia has. But if Putin agreed to a discussion I would assume there isn't much left. And pipelines, which is how most Russian crude exits the country, are not useful storage containers. So Russia is under pressure BECAUSE of MBS' so called "childish" tantrum. 

 

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Oh, and yes, I am "OK" with the glut because it is what happened because of economic shutdowns. The marginal quantities Saudi and OPEC have coming online don't really change the picture that much. 22 miob/d excess vs. 20 is really not what is driving the markets. 

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14 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

I am abnormal; failure to understand me makes simpletons think I am an idiot. I assure you I can take you to school...

Oh goody, an IQ pissing contest.  That's not childish at all.  

MoooOOOm!  Enthalpic is picking on the normies again...

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9 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 Enthalpic is picking on the normies again...

I tend to do that, sorry.

 

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(edited)

18 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Secondly, I sincerely doubt that you know the mind of God. Just a guess....

Positive I don't. Impossible for human mind to even comprehend. 

Finding things that violate the rules of nature/physics/chemistry, that you don't find. Now you find mistakes in our data and conclusions regularly. I don't think we will ever figure it all out. Long shots happen. Modern miracles seem to happen, but extreme statistical longshots are not violating nature, more the inevitability of statistics when dealing with anything not absolute and enough opportunities.

And yes, most of us, me included, need faith. But the arrogance of any person thinking he/she has the answer to what God thinks, nope. Yet how many folks believe in a 6 day creation. I think the answer in the USA is 37% of the population. I always found that especially funny in oil and gas.

I don't see the conflict between science and believing, but science does make you accept parables instead of a literal truth.

 

Edited by John Foote
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3 hours ago, John Foote said:

Positive I don't. Impossible for human mind to even comprehend. 

Finding things that violate the rules of nature/physics/chemistry, that you don't find. Now you find mistakes in our data and conclusions regularly. I don't think we will ever figure it all out. Long shots happen. Modern miracles seem to happen, but extreme statistical longshots are not violating nature, more the inevitability of statistics when dealing with anything not absolute and enough opportunities.

And yes, most of us, me included, need faith. But the arrogance of any person thinking he/she has the answer to what God thinks, nope. Yet how many folks believe in a 6 day creation. I think the answer in the USA is 37% of the population. I always found that especially funny in oil and gas.

I don't see the conflict between science and believing, but science does make you accept parables instead of a literal truth.

 

As you seem scientifically inclined, and will use all data available, take a look at the creation ‚Äėstory‚Äô in a Scofield Reference Bible. The footnotes explain how the word ‚Äėday‚Äô is utilized. It does not relate to a 24 hour period.

Whether you choose to believe in the Creationist Theory or not is immaterial, properly interpreting the information available is important.

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9 hours ago, John Foote said:

And yes, most of us, me included, need faith. But the arrogance of any person thinking he/she has the answer to what God thinks, nope. Yet how many folks believe in a 6 day creation. I think the answer in the USA is 37% of the population. I always found that especially funny in oil and gas.

 

Well, what is god's idea of a day? A billion years?

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21 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

How'd you ever get in school? 

a12.png

Then in Italy this

The world's 1.3bn smokers have been told to quit as COVID-19 can affect them more severely

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On 4/4/2020 at 9:15 PM, John Foote said:

MbS is the rough edge. Has the manifest destiny, absolutely monarchy, chosen by God to lead. Cannot, will not, answer to anyone buy himself. 

Funny thing about God. God respects physics, chemistry, the rule of life. Perhaps because he/she created them. Or maybe just having a laugh at twisted believers who think God bends to them because they believe when the very behavior shows they do not.

John,  do have to admit I do not understand your last sentence: it it very blurr to me, this matter of twisted believers and the very behaviour... Didn't you mean to write rather THEIR very behaviour instead of THE ? That would help...

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All OPEC and non-OPEC countries are owned by the state in which they produce.  The U.S. hasn't been a part of the group since it can't swing markets and the industry is private.  The U.S. exports the crude it can't refine.  We're still consuming (or did before coronavirus) somewhere in the neighborhood of 19 million bbls a day.  The G-20 is meeting on Friday and they want the U.S. included to discuss crude oil pricing. The big swingers Saudi Arabia and Russia want to cut production, and insist the U.S do the same.  

Now, we have 3.5 million bbls of stripper crude being produced.  It cannot be shut in due to low pressure so that can't happen.  The U.S. has 6,000 Operators (or what other people call "drillers" - which is in the industry are the companies that own the rigs - also despise the term "frackers" - since fracking is a process done by companies such as Sclumberger - so it's hard to listen to the so-called "industry experts" who have no idea about the industry and its counterparts and believe the industry is just one giant "thing" - I know, a minor detail, but want them to be clear)  so back to the Operators --  Trump has no idea what it takes to explore, and develop (if you're lucky to find economic production) crude oil and gas and refine it into its associated parts (gasoline, petrochemicals, etc).   

So, off to the G-20 we go with the head of the G-20, Saudi Arabia, giving the U.S. its demand, along with Russia, to cut production.   Looking at the list of companies invited to the WH meeting that Tom Kirkman so smartly showed here, we see that only the Majors and a couple of large independents are included (along with all our brilliant Administrative and political geniuses).  All pubic companies, I do believe.  So, none of the smaller independents are even considered.  Those are the companies who are most important and produce more than any of the big guys, but, as always, ignored.  Texas is the largest producer and has thousands of industry people and has all private minerals, unlike New Mexico, etc.  So, how does Texas say to its producers, you're going to have to curtail your production from say 300 bbs to 100 bbls a day.  So, the company gets nailed on its economics, the banks start freaking out, the mineral owners (private owners) start litigation and Texas loses say 30% of revenue, which was $4.9 billion from oil and $1.8 billion in natural gas last year. 

Is this a good move?  Should we target our oil and gas industry and have them bend to the will of OPEC and non-OPEC members?  Can Trump force the EPA to pull its head out of its ass and build a refinery for sweet crude we currently export?  Can we nationalize the  Motiva refinery in Port Arthur Texas from Saudi Arabia and turn it over to one of our private refiners?  Are we ready to become the child of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East again in order to import the crude we need since we cut production?  We will be in more wars in the Middle East to protect our own import needs?  

But, the big question right now is storage.  The industry is going to cut production since we need room to store, but it should only be somewhat short term.  Trump opens a small portion of the SPR to let the industry store crude.  I think they said 33 million bbls.  I say WTF?  Congress won't buy the crude for $19 or less for discounting to fill the SPR?  Green stuff in the stimulus so buying crude is pulled.  So looks like any crude stores over 33 million allowed will need to be "rented" by the industry.  Nice.  So, if the government and states demand cuts in production and a lot of production will be lost permanently, when crude oil prices are again ruled by the OPEC, and prices skyrocket, will Congress apologize.

Okay, that's the end of my rant, on a sarcastic note I would say, but oh so true.

 

 

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On 4/4/2020 at 1:41 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Today, President Donald J. Trump will meet with executives in the energy industry to discuss the impact of COVID-19 and recent developments in energy markets.

The following individuals are expected to attend:

The White House
President Donald J. Trump
Vice President Mike Pence
Mark Meadows, Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff
Jared Kushner, Assistant to the President and Senior Advisor
Marc Short, Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff to the Vice President
Larry Kudlow, Assistant to the President and Director of the National Economic Council
Dan Scavino, Assistant to the President and Senior Advisor for Digital Strategy

Trump Administration
Secretary David Bernhardt, United States Department of Interior
Secretary Dan Brouillette, United States Department of Energy
Ambassador Robert Lighthizer, United States Trade Representative

Members of Congress
Senator John Cornyn, R-TX
Senator Kevin Cramer, R-ND
Senator Ted Cruz, R-TX
Senator Dan Sullivan, R-AK
Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-CA

External Participants
Greg Garland, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Phillips 66
Dave Hager, President and Chief Executive Officer, Devon Energy Corporation
Harold Hamm, Executive Chairman, Continental Resources
Jeff Hildebrand, Chief Executive Officer, Hilcorp Energy Company
Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer, Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Mike Sommers, President and Chief Executive Officer, American Petroleum Institute
Kelcy Warren, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Energy Transfer Partners
Mike Wirth, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Chevron Corporation
Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Exxon Mobil Corporation

 

============================================================

Public Pool is an automated feed of White House press pool reports. For live updates, follow @WHPublicPool on Twitter.

https://publicpool.kinja.com/subject-in-town-pool-report-7-attendees-at-energy-m-1842666700

 

Good news on the meeting, as for the Keystone... how in any possible way can building a pipeline that allows a foreign country to flood our market with its government subsidized oil be good for America and our oil industry, other than creating some short term welding jobs?

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   I'm a little concerned about Trump and his knowledge  going into the meeting.  What do "free markets" and "supply and demand" have anything to  with what has been going on in the oil markets.  I don't think anything like OPEC would be legal in this country  and Russia is really just a dictatorship.  If their truly was a free market  production would not be going up. 

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(edited)

The problem of too much oil might solve itself. Oil Price reports that horizontal rig count has dropped by 20% already and is expected to drop to 200 by 4-30. Given that, look at Shaleprofile's chart showing the expected drop off of shale oil production if all drilling stops in April. Within 1 year production would drop from over 8 mmbopd to less than 5 mmbopd.

Supply-projection.png

Edited by Danlxyz
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I can remember talking to Hamm in 1987 before he became a proficient liar and was just a stripper well operator in Oklahoma. At that time when oil dropped to $8/bbl he was petitioning the government to put a floor price of $22/bbl on domestic oil by imposing an import tariff. A long time ago, but the arguments are still the same. I don't think we want to turn the oil business into the farming business. The government is always happy to guarantee you a living, in exchange for guaranteeing you will never make any money. Number 2 is how anyone one can think the government will guarantee you a floor price without also setting a ceiling price is ridiculous. The oil business has had a history of feast and famine since 1859. This current famine will fix itself as the domestic production drops 2 to 3 million barrels per day in the next 12 months.

The business in the last 10 years has been about spending money rather than producing oil. With the advent of horizontal drilling in tight oil reservoirs the industry for the first time in history could assure capital sources that there would be no 100% loss i.e. dry holes. This fact created a massive influx of capital from sources that were historically prohibited who were desperate to gain earnings when the fed funds rate was dropped to zero. That money is now gone and started to disappear before the price drop or coronavirus. The reality of the actual reserves and production capacity is about to be realized since money must now be made by producing oil.   

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