Pew Poll: 90% of U.S. believes China is threat.

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20 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The question is why have a war at all. 

China is like the US in the 1930s as far as excess industrial capacity, but are lacking for key major materials. Copper, high grade iron ore, oil, nat gas, all major foods, particularly proteins. Why not pull them under in terms of trade and they will not be able to fund a war buildup. 

Their credit bubble pretty much assures that any disruption keels them over into economic depression if not collapse. We may have already had it.

 

What makes you think China will give us a choice as to whether there is war or not? Did the Nazi's ask us politely? Or the Japanese? U think it was all just for fun?

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3 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Guess what? That is the same everywhere! Only difference is, China does not have mass unemployment or huge current acct deficit like most of us Western countries.

As I am trying to point out, that will not stay that way. 

I am also unclear about what the goal of such a war would be. 

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Just now, 0R0 said:

As I am trying to point out, that will not stay that way. 

I am also unclear about what the goal of such a war would be. 

That is strange, you pointed the answer in ur question. No country likes to depend on others for their food and raw materials? That is always what war about?

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1 minute ago, Wombat said:

What makes you think China will give us a choice as to whether there is war or not? Did the Nazi's ask us politely? Or the Japanese? U think it was all just for fun?

So you are saying they are going to go for broke to establish an empire to secure their supply lines and resources? 

Same idea as the Nazis? The ultimate stage of the newly industrialized power breaking into the null space between the empires? Having to do this to break control of the empires on those resources so that they can avoid the markups they charge?

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2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

So you are saying they are going to go for broke to establish an empire to secure their supply lines and resources? 

Same idea as the Nazis? The ultimate stage of the newly industrialized power breaking into the null space between the empires? Having to do this to break control of the empires on those resources so that they can avoid the markups they charge?

Of course. Isn't that what every "new empire" does? What makes you think China will be any different?

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I am trying to say that if they don't go to war now then they can't go to war later because their next generation is half the size of the current 31-32 year old group. Their production efficiency - particularly labor productivity will have to rise. Their  quality assurance has to rise as well. And while this war is going on their farmers who are dying off are not going to be there to farm their deteriorated soil. Their farming is very energy intensive and labor intensive. And its production peaked 6 years ago. 

So yes, I see very much what China would want to achieve in a war. But what would the West achieve? What would the "deliverable" be.

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2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I am trying to say that if they don't go to war now then they can't go to war later because their next generation is half the size of the current 31-32 year old group. Their production efficiency - particularly labor productivity will have to rise. Their  quality assurance has to rise as well. And while this war is going on their farmers who are dying off are not going to be there to farm their deteriorated soil. Their farming is very energy intensive and labor intensive. And its production peaked 6 years ago. 

So yes, I see very much what China would want to achieve in a war. But what would the West achieve? What would the "deliverable" be.

 

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I am trying to say that if they don't go to war now then they can't go to war later because their next generation is half the size of the current 31-32 year old group. Their production efficiency - particularly labor productivity will have to rise. Their  quality assurance has to rise as well. And while this war is going on their farmers who are dying off are not going to be there to farm their deteriorated soil. Their farming is very energy intensive and labor intensive. And its production peaked 6 years ago. 

So yes, I see very much what China would want to achieve in a war. But what would the West achieve? What would the "deliverable" be.

There is no Western motive for war apart from survival, that is the "deliverable".

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5 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Of course. Isn't that what every "new empire" does? What makes you think China will be any different?

Would like to, yes, will? I am not sure they can contemplate how to without a viable navy and no plan to build one. 

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2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Would like to, yes, will? I am not sure they can contemplate how to without a viable navy and no plan to build one. 

You clearly are not aware of what is happening in SE Asia. It must not be in American media. Chinese regional take-over already occurring. US Navy already shit scared of Chinese Navy.

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1 minute ago, Wombat said:

 

There is no Western motive for war apart from survival, that is the "deliverable".

So you smash up their Navy 

They shoot off their missile batteries and you smash the barrages up with tactical nukes over the ocean. Then you hypersonic drone bonb the missile bases. 

What else, do you smash up their factories? The high speed rail?

Do you blockade them till they starve? Without oil or NG their agricultural productivity is about 30% of current output. 

The importance to Saudi of breaking down Russia's oil production capacity is getting a new context here. So they expect to be able to narrow China's oil supplies to just the Gulf and the US and gouge them and cut them off if they start a greater military buildout?

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3 minutes ago, Wombat said:

You clearly are not aware of what is happening in SE Asia. It must not be in American media. Chinese regional take-over already occurring. US Navy already shit scared of Chinese Navy.

I am aware that they are laying claim to islands and producing artificial ones. That they have their single use ships tagging every US flagged floating item. Yes. They are making a clear claim to the S China sea. You are saying they are planning a regional expansion to the Malay and Indonesian islands? The Philippines? Thailand for the food? 

 

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2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

So you smash up their Navy 

They shoot off their missile batteries and you smash the barrages up with tactical nukes over the ocean. Then you hypersonic drone bonb the missile bases. 

What else, do you smash up their factories? The high speed rail?

Do you blockade them till they starve? Without oil or NG their agricultural productivity is about 30% of current output. 

The importance to Saudi of breaking down Russia's oil production capacity is getting a new context here. So they expect to be able to narrow China's oil supplies to just the Gulf and the US and gouge them and cut them off if they start a greater military buildout?

It is the Saudis who have been, and still are, suffering the bulk of the pain in regards to oil price and production. Russia has taken great advantage of them, and has just started sending large amounts of pipeline gas to China via "Power of Siberia" which will triple within 10 years. US LNG will be stranded. Whatever you can do to China, they can do to you. And they will. As soon as they are ready. They are still "softening you up" in case u not notice? Other 90% of Americans notice, that is headline of this article yes?

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3 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

I am aware that they are laying claim to islands and producing artificial ones. That they have their single use ships tagging every US flagged floating item. Yes. They are making a clear claim to the S China sea. You are saying they are planning a regional expansion to the Malay and Indonesian islands? The Philippines? Thailand for the food? 

 

Yes, and Australia for the iron ore, coal, gas, oil, copper, gold, aluminium, uranium etc etc

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1 minute ago, Wombat said:

It is the Saudis who have been, and still are, suffering the bulk of the pain in regards to oil price and production. Russia has taken great advantage of them, and has just started sending large amounts of pipeline gas to China via "Power of Siberia" which will triple within 10 years. US LNG will be stranded. Whatever you can do to China, they can do to you. And they will. As soon as they are ready. They are still "softening you up" in case u not notice? Other 90% of Americans notice, that is headline of this article yes?

Yes, I am very much aware. 

It is why they are bribing their way through anything and anyone  of importance trying their best to hollow out the West industrially and lever it up financially. 

Where do you see UK and Europe in this picture?

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Like, does the UK finish off the aircraft carriers?

Germany for once take its subs out of dry dock?

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2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Yes, I am very much aware. 

It is why they are bribing their way through anything and anyone  of importance trying their best to hollow out the West industrially and lever it up financially. 

Where do you see UK and Europe in this picture?

They will have their hands full with an aggressive Russia.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

Like, does the UK finish off the aircraft carriers?

Germany for once take its subs out of dry dock?

Keep going.  This is entertaining.

[Wombat + 1,028]

2 minutes ago, Wombat said:

They will have their hands full with an aggressive Russia.

The only thing that worries the Chinese is that if they invade SE Asia, then India may open flank on their shared border.

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3 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Keep going.  This is entertaining.

Glad ur enjoying this Dan! Let us pray that we can find a suitable deterrent in the meantime?

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2 minutes ago, Wombat said:

They will have their hands full with an aggressive Russia.

But if you want to strangle China you start by cutting off their pipelines from Russia. 

Russia without big oil revenue is unable to attack anything and survive through it. Their clock is most definitely ticking as in a decade they won't have enough young people to field an army of size. 

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5 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Keep going.  This is entertaining.

If Trump wins next election, will be interesting to see if American "strategic patience" really over?

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2 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

But if you want to strangle China you start by cutting off their pipelines from Russia. 

Russia without big oil revenue is unable to attack anything and survive through it. Their clock is most definitely ticking as in a decade they won't have enough young people to field an army of size. 

What if Chinese Air Force bombs ur pipelines from Canada? Shuts down Suez Canal with nuclear weapon?

[Wombat + 1,028]

6 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

But if you want to strangle China you start by cutting off their pipelines from Russia. 

Russia without big oil revenue is unable to attack anything and survive through it. Their clock is most definitely ticking as in a decade they won't have enough young people to field an army of size. 

Maybe Panama Canal? Blow up one of the locks? Anything possible?

[0R0 + 6,251]

My thinking has focused on China's wobbly economics, the profitless industries, the real estate people can't live in because there are no jobs there. The super leveraged absurdly priced real estate that is the nation's wealth and which has funded this decade. And the fact that those jobs are staffed by migrants who don't have a hope of owning a place to live. 

The country is far weaker than it looks. The CCP is appearing to be closing up shop now. Cutting off its people from the broader world, and the broader world appears poised to break off from China as soon as they can.

Without that trade continuing and having a means to finance it, China is just going to keel over within a couple of years. So if they are going to war, they will have to get a move on. 

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5 minutes ago, Wombat said:

What if Chinese Air Force bombs ur pipelines from Canada? Shuts down Suez Canal with nuclear weapon?

Nuclear weapons get an immediate nuclear response. No international conference, no red phone. Just missiles flying to Beijing. I don't know the range of their aircraft or large drones.