Jee + 27 JD May 11, 2020 58 minutes ago, 0R0 said: https://judithcurry.com/2020/05/10/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought/ Very sensibly, the Swedish public health authority has surveyed the prevalence of antibodies to the SARS-COV-2 virus in Stockholm County, the earliest in Sweden hit by COVID-19. They thereby estimated that 17% of the population would have been infected by 11 April, rising to 25% by 1 May 2020.[5] Yet recorded new cases had stopped increasing by 11 April (Figure 1), as had net hospital admissions,[6] and both measures have fallen significantly since. That pattern indicates that the HIT had been reached by 11April, at which point only 17% of the population appear to have been infected. The importance of population inhomogeneity A recent paper (Gomes et al.[7]) provides the answer. It shows that variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others can cause the HIT to be much lower than it is in a homogeneous population. Standard simple compartmental epidemic models take no account of such variability. And the model used in the Ferguson20 study, while much more complex, appears only to take into account inhomogeneity arising from a very limited set of factors – notably geographic separation from other individuals and household size – with only a modest resulting impact on the growth of the epidemic.[8] Using a compartmental model modified to take such variability into account, with co-variability between susceptibility and infectivity arguably handled in a more realistic way than by Gomes et al., I confirm their finding that the HIT is indeed reached at a much lower level than when the population is homogeneous. That would explain why the HIT appears to have been passed in Stockholm by mid April. The same seems likely to be the case in other major cities and regions that have been badly affected by COVID-19. Read the science. Not the MSM claptrap and fear mongering. If you want to be 100% safe all the time, it is called agoraphobia and can be treated in an appropriate clinical or institutional setting. By Nik Lewis, a guy with no academic qualifications, exactly the kind of person you'd get "science" from, and now it's "confirmed" because OilPrice.com has quoted it.. At least you know you need to get the "science" microphone to speak loud, it's a good start, you just not there yet. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 11, 2020 44 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said: It would have been much less tiring for all concerned if, upon your fiery arrival at Oil Price, you had just said "Donald Trump is the reason people are dying." 3 2 1... Nah, Trump is not responsible for this pandemic, he simply can't lead this corrupted system well and his frustrations don't help. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 11, 2020 38 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said: Actually, with my basic moderator forum tools, I see that @Jee originally registered on this forum in 2018, with his real name and his photo, although he never made any posts at that time. And recently re-registered under a pseudonym as "Jee". Jee, please do not think that using a pseudonym here makes you anonymous. Everyone's IP address is posted for every single comment made here for moderators to see, although it is not visible to non-moderators. Example: Just so you know. NP, I will get a new name for YOU as I like. I don't recall what I did with this site in 2018, I'm only here these days reading the oil news mostly. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 May 11, 2020 Totally not scary at all ... Coronavirus digital health passport to be supplied to 15 countries Manchester-based cybersecurity firm VST Enterprises has signed a deal with digital health company Circle Pass Enterprises (CPE) to create a digital health passport designed to make it easier for individuals to return to work after the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. The two companies have partnered to create “the world’s most secure digital health passport”, known as Covi-pass, and will work with governments and the private sector to deploy the technology to 15 countries around the world. These countries will include Italy, Portugal, France, Panama, India, the US, Canada, Sweden, Spain, South Africa, Mexico, United Arab Emirates and The Netherlands, with the goal of supplying 50 million digital health passports. The first passports will begin shipping from next week. VST Enterprises’s VCode and VPlatform technologies will be integrated into the into the Covi-pass to ensure it is secure. How the coronavirus digital health passport works The Covi-pass will work using a colour system of green, amber, red to indicate whether the individual has tested positive or negative for Covid-19 and relevant health information. Firstly, the user downloads the app and enters key information such as name, address, age and verifies their identity using their fingerprint or a facial scan. They then take a Covid-19 test, administered by an authorised healthcare professional, and the results are scanned into the Covi-pass. They can then use the digital health passport to authenticate their health status to enable “a safe return to work, life, and safe travel”. However, a significant shortage of coronavirus test kits could make testing a challenge. Nevertheless, VST believes the technology could be key to ending the lockdown. “We firmly believe that the digital health passport alongside government-approved testing kits is the key to removing the lockdown restrictions in a gradual and controlled way. The current technology being trialed using bluetooth and proximity apps is fundamentally flawed because of its privacy issues of real time tracking, the security and data breaches which we are already seeing and being reported and the reticence for citizens to uptake and download the tracing app,” said Louis-James Davis, CEO of VST Enterprises. “The issue at present with other health passports is that not only is the feed of information voluntary, but the technology being used (in most cases a QR code or barcode) can’t be interacted with outside of the safe distancing zone. Data and sensitive information scanned or stored in either a QR code and barcode can be hacked and are inherently insecure, leaving data and personal details to be compromised. “Both barcodes and QR codes are old second generation technology. VCode & VPlatform represent the next ‘third generation’ of ultra-secure and versatile code technology to military grade encryption with over 2 Quintillion code permutations.” VST Enterpises is also in advanced discussions with senior UK Government officials, NHSX and the Home Office about its cybersecurity technology. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 May 11, 2020 German Autopsy Study Finds EVERY Coronavirus Victim had Previous Illness — All Had Cancer, Lung Disease, Were Heavy Smokers or Morbidly Obese The Gateway Pundit was first to report back on March 16, 2020, that the WHO was pushing a completely inaccurate coronavirus mortality rate to frighten the masses. The WHO Director, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, estimated on March 3, 2020 that the coronavirus mortality rate was 3.4% This was a completely inaccurate number that caused a global panic. In Switzerland children went back to school on Monday since researchers found that children rarely get virus or transmit it. Switzerland rolls back coronavirus lockdown earlier than expected. Schools to reopen since children rarely get virus or transmit it. Even better, Swiss tell those over 65 they can resume their lives. https://t.co/y9QrXP1Jmc via @TheLocalSwitzer — Robbie Sherman (@RobbieSherman77) May 11, 2020 Now a new study from Germany found that every single death was someone who had cancer, lung disease, was a heavy smoker or morbidly obese. Via Dr. Andrew Bostom. Head of Forensic Pathology in Hamburg on covid19 autopsy findings: “not a single person w/out previous illness has died of the virus in Hamburg. All had cancer, chronic lung dis, were heavy smokers or heavily obese, or had diabetes or cardiovasc dis" 1/3 https://t.co/u4Pi9ntRT0 pic.twitter.com/PaSdh2UnF5 — Andrew Bostom (@andrewbostom) May 11, 2020 3/3 "By focusing strongly on the rather few negative processes, fears are created that are very burdensome. Covid-19 is a deadly disease only in exceptional cases, but in most cases it is a mostly harmless virus infection" — Andrew Bostom (@andrewbostom) May 11, 2020 We are seeing this a lot lately. Add it to the pile: New York City: 99% of fatalities of all age groups had underlying conditions Italy: 98% Britain: 95% https://t.co/uAhgn5I9an https://t.co/sxqTq51mvk https://t.co/TUNgUyFcJf — Karl Dierenbach (@Dierenbach) May 11, 2020 2 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 11, 2020 Frankly not everyone knows if they have underlying health issues, because about 25-30 million people in this country have no health insurance, so you could be developing cancer without knowing it at this moment.. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SUZNV + 1,197 May 11, 2020 Then subsidies for free health check for people with no insurance still much much cheaper than lock down the entire economy. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 May 11, 2020 33 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said: German Autopsy Study Finds EVERY Coronavirus Victim had Previous Illness — All Had Cancer, Lung Disease, Were Heavy Smokers or Morbidly Obese ... Add it to the pile: New York City: 99% of fatalities of all age groups had underlying conditions Italy: 98% Britain: 95% https://t.co/uAhgn5I9an https://t.co/sxqTq51mvk https://t.co/TUNgUyFcJf — Karl Dierenbach (@Dierenbach) May 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, Jee said: Frankly not everyone knows if they have underlying health issues, because about 25-30 million people in this country have no health insurance, so you could be developing cancer without knowing it at this moment.. < ahem > "Now a new study from Germany found that every single death was someone who had cancer, lung disease, was a heavy smoker or morbidly obese." So, you are claiming that tens of millions of people in the U.S. are totally unaware if they - have cancer - have lung disease - are or were a heavy smoker - are morbidly obese Really ? 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Gato + 251 Bs May 11, 2020 2 hours ago, Jee said: I reach my own conclusions about the political system of this country (which as I said is rotten and bad), my argument is given how it ugly it is, should there be a more capable president to lead it or should it be over-thrown by the people? What's the solution and how do you carry it out? Term limits for both legislatures and a flat tax. The government was not set up for career politicians nor bureaucracies. It was to be a public service then go back to your regular job. 2 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 May 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said: Totally not scary at all ... Coronavirus digital health passport to be supplied to 15 countries Manchester-based cybersecurity firm VST Enterprises has signed a deal with digital health company Circle Pass Enterprises (CPE) to create a digital health passport designed to make it easier for individuals to return to work after the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. The two companies have partnered to create “the world’s most secure digital health passport”, known as Covi-pass, and will work with governments and the private sector to deploy the technology to 15 countries around the world. These countries will include Italy, Portugal, France, Panama, India, the US, Canada, Sweden, Spain, South Africa, Mexico, United Arab Emirates and The Netherlands, with the goal of supplying 50 million digital health passports. The first passports will begin shipping from next week. VST Enterprises’s VCode and VPlatform technologies will be integrated into the into the Covi-pass to ensure it is secure. How the coronavirus digital health passport works The Covi-pass will work using a colour system of green, amber, red to indicate whether the individual has tested positive or negative for Covid-19 and relevant health information. Firstly, the user downloads the app and enters key information such as name, address, age and verifies their identity using their fingerprint or a facial scan. They then take a Covid-19 test, administered by an authorised healthcare professional, and the results are scanned into the Covi-pass. They can then use the digital health passport to authenticate their health status to enable “a safe return to work, life, and safe travel”. However, a significant shortage of coronavirus test kits could make testing a challenge. Nevertheless, VST believes the technology could be key to ending the lockdown. “We firmly believe that the digital health passport alongside government-approved testing kits is the key to removing the lockdown restrictions in a gradual and controlled way. The current technology being trialed using bluetooth and proximity apps is fundamentally flawed because of its privacy issues of real time tracking, the security and data breaches which we are already seeing and being reported and the reticence for citizens to uptake and download the tracing app,” said Louis-James Davis, CEO of VST Enterprises. “The issue at present with other health passports is that not only is the feed of information voluntary, but the technology being used (in most cases a QR code or barcode) can’t be interacted with outside of the safe distancing zone. Data and sensitive information scanned or stored in either a QR code and barcode can be hacked and are inherently insecure, leaving data and personal details to be compromised. “Both barcodes and QR codes are old second generation technology. VCode & VPlatform represent the next ‘third generation’ of ultra-secure and versatile code technology to military grade encryption with over 2 Quintillion code permutations.” VST Enterpises is also in advanced discussions with senior UK Government officials, NHSX and the Home Office about its cybersecurity technology. Contact your reps and the Republcan party and the administration to block the entire effort of contact tracing and "health passports" This disease is a big fat nothing and carriers don't pose a danger even to high risk groups if they use appropriate PPE. The economy can be opened now. They should also oppose any requirement by any other nation to have such a device. No government should have access to any health information of anyone at any time under all circumstances including pandemic, Particularly not this one. Particularly not recording associations of people. Identify the people negotiating on behalf of the US and withdraw them and their authority to negotiate. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 11, 2020 56 minutes ago, SUZNV said: Then subsidies for free health check for people with no insurance still much much cheaper than lock down the entire economy. Why choose? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 12, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, El Gato said: Term limits for both legislatures and a flat tax. The government was not set up for career politicians nor bureaucracies. It was to be a public service then go back to your regular job. I don't think the tax rate itself is the real fiscal issue, it's certainly less of an issue than how much tax $ there is compared to the deficits.. Politicians are becoming hereditary like farmers and fishers, google the Kennedy family, or Bush, now Trump with Ivanka showing off her boobs on international stages, makes me laugh. Edited May 12, 2020 by Jee 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotone + 412 May 12, 2020 (edited) 50 minutes ago, 0R0 said: Contact your reps and the Republcan party and the administration to block the entire effort of contact tracing and "health passports" This disease is a big fat nothing and carriers don't pose a danger even to high risk groups if they use appropriate PPE. The economy can be opened now. They should also oppose any requirement by any other nation to have such a device. No government should have access to any health information of anyone at any time under all circumstances including pandemic, Particularly not this one. Particularly not recording associations of people. Identify the people negotiating on behalf of the US and withdraw them and their authority to negotiate. You may be right, but then you would need a lot of PPE and also make sure that everyone is practicing Social Distancing. This was how they reopened the schools in China a little while back: Edited May 12, 2020 by Hotone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 12, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Hotone said: You may be right, but then you would need a lot of PPE and also make sure that everyone is practicing Social Distancing. This was how they reopened the schools in China a few weeks back: Look at these bastards, ready to graduate then STEAL from American kids. Edited May 12, 2020 by Jee 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
0R0 + 6,251 May 12, 2020 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Hotone said: You may be right, but then you would need a lot of PPE and also make sure that everyone is practicing Social Distancing. This was how they reopened the schools in China a little while back: The PPE is what you need - and mostly for the high risk individuals - not for everyone. Social distancing is more placebo than effect. If you have the proper PPE your chances of getting the disease is lower, The transmission is high at enclosed spaces whether at close or medium distance. If transmission was mainly a distance issue than nurses and doctors would have all had it. The Wuhan hospital at the center of the outbreak where PPE was in low supply was tested and 3.7-3.9% of staff had antibodies. So in this circumstance where no social distancing was possible, people managed to avoid infection with PPE. So if you are a high risk erson with any of the common comorbidities or a member of their household then you should wear an N95 mask and gloves in public. Social distancing is largely bogus. You may be out of spitting distance but the main transmission via air is small aerosol droplets that hang in stagnant air in enclosed spaces for several hours 0 up to 4 hours. That means stores and classrooms and offices. In the MIT study of the spread of the virus in NYC the close quarters and prolonged exposure on the subway was shown to be the most likely cause of NYC's high infection rates (up to 39% prevalence tested) and the high degree of virulence and mortality, which was caused due to big initial viral inoculations. PPE is a great substitute for social distancing. But you need a real mask. For the young, so long as you don't have a high risk person in your household or work with one, then you should not fear the virus at all. And you should NOT try to flatten the curve but control it - meaning don't go out of your way to get it, but don't destroy your work the economy and social life in order to avoid it. It is not the bubonic plague. Edited May 12, 2020 by 0R0 2 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hotone + 412 May 12, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Jee said: Look at these bastards, ready to graduate then STEAL from American kids. I don't think those kids are ready to graduate yet 😉 As for copying from Americans, the approach that China took to combat this pandemic was actually based on guidelines developed by the US CDC to deal with the SARS outbreak (attached). It's just that China implemented it methodically on a massive scale and used new technology. Meanwhile, the US has not been willing to adopt the same strict measures. https://witf.org/2020/04/29/compared-with-china-u-s-stay-at-home-has-been-giant-garden-party-journalist-says/ approach.pdf Edited May 12, 2020 by Hotone Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ward Smith + 6,615 May 12, 2020 7 hours ago, Enthalpic said: Does anybody run a static IP anymore? Your ignorance is showing Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 12, 2020 43 minutes ago, 0R0 said: The PPE is what you need - and mostly for the high risk individuals - not for everyone. Social distancing is more placebo than effect. If you have the proper PPE your chances of getting the disease is lower, The transmission is high at enclosed spaces whether at close or medium distance. If transmission was mainly a distance issue than nurses and doctors would have all had it. The Wuhan hospital at the center of the outbreak where PPE was in low supply was tested and 3.7-3.9% of staff had antibodies. So in this circumstance where no social distancing was possible, people managed to avoid infection with PPE. So if you are a high risk erson with any of the common comorbidities or a member of their household then you should wear an N95 mask and gloves in public. Social distancing is largely bogus. You may be out of spitting distance but the main transmission via air is small aerosol droplets that hang in stagnant air in enclosed spaces for several hours 0 up to 4 hours. That means stores and classrooms and offices. In the MIT study of the spread of the virus in NYC the close quarters and prolonged exposure on the subway was shown to be the most likely cause of NYC's high infection rates (up to 39% prevalence tested) and the high degree of virulence and mortality, which was caused due to big initial viral inoculations. PPE is a great substitute for social distancing. But you need a real mask. For the young, so long as you don't have a high risk person in your household or work with one, then you should not fear the virus at all. And you should NOT try to flatten the curve but control it - meaning don't go out of your way to get it, but don't destroy your work the economy and social life in order to avoid it. It is not the bubonic plague. Once again u r quoting the CCP numbers, let's see CCP stats + climate denier medical advice = how we should handle this crisis? Get lost. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jee + 27 JD May 12, 2020 40 minutes ago, Hotone said: I don't think those kids are ready to graduate yet 😉 As for copying from Americans, the approach that China took to combat this pandemic was actually based on guidelines developed by the US CDC to deal with the SARS outbreak (attached). It's just that China implemented it methodically on a massive scale and used new technology. Meanwhile, the US has not been willing to adopt the same strict measures. https://witf.org/2020/04/29/compared-with-china-u-s-stay-at-home-has-been-giant-garden-party-journalist-says/ approach.pdf 248.22 kB · 1 download Some of them will be making iPhones next year, old enough. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb May 12, 2020 I have Reviewed Ferguson’s Code – It’s a Joke I have been asked by a source in Britain to review the Ferguson model code for my opinion. Just so everyone has some idea, the original program used by Ferguson was “a single 15,000 line file that had been worked on for a decade” and by no means is this remotely sophisticated. I seriously doubt that Imperial College will want to go public with the code because it is that bad. To put this in some perspective, just the core to conduct basic analysis in Socrates is about 150,000 lines of code. It is so complicated, it takes a tremendous amount of concentration to try to see the paths it has available to it for basic analysis. To try to keep this in trader’s terms, reviewing the code reveals this is just a stochastic which is INCAPABLE of forecasting high, low, or projected price target expected to be achieved. Any trader knows that a stochastic is a trend following measure not a forecaster of the trend nor a projection tool to say when a market is overbought or oversold. This clearly shows the vast chasm between trading models and academic models where the money is never on the line. The documentation even states: “The model is stochastic. Multiple runs with different seeds should be undertaken to see average behaviour.” “Stochastic” is simply defined as “randomly determined; having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.” In other words, they begin with a presumption, and therein lies the FIRST error. Ferguson’s assumption was wrong, to begin with. Then this mode is so old, they recommend that it be run only on a single CORE processor as if we were dealing with an old IBM XT. Effectively, you start the program with what is called a “seed” number which is then used to produce a random number. Most children’s games begin this way. In fact, this is a version of what you would be similar to the game SimCity where you create a city starting from scratch and it simulates what might happen based upon the beginning presumption. There are numerous bugs in the code and the documentation suggests to run it several times and take the average. This is just unthinkable! A program should produce the same result with the same data from which it begins. Therefore, there is no possible way this model would ever produce the same results. In reality, this model produces completely different results even when beginning with the very same starting seeds and parameters because of the attempt to also make the seed random. This is not even as sophisticated as SimCity, which is really questionable. This is where the Imperial College claims that the errors will vanish if you run it on an old system in the single-threaded mode as if you were using a 1980s XT. In programming, you run what is known as a regression-test, which is re-running a functional and non-functional test to ensure that previously developed and tested software still performs after a change. In market terminology, its called back-testing. In the most unprofessional manner imaginable, the Imperial College code does not even have a regression-test structure. They apparently attempted to but the extent of the random behavior caused by bugs in the code to prevent that check? On April 4th, 2020, Imperial College noted: “However, we haven’t had the time to work out a scalable and maintainable way of running the regression test in a way that allows a small amount of variation, but doesn’t let the figures drift over time.” This Ferguson Model is such a joke it is either an outright fraud, or it is the most inept piece of programming I may have ever seen in my life. There is no valid test to warrant any funding of Imperial College for providing ANY forecast based upon this model. This is the most UNPROFESSIONAL operation perhaps in computer science. The entire team should be disbanded and an independent team put in place to review the world of Neil Ferguson and he should NOT be allowed to oversee any review of this model. The only REASONABLE conclusion I can reach is that this has been deliberately used to justify bogus forecasts intent for political activism, or I must accept that these academics are totally incapable of even creating a theoretical model no less coding it as a programmer. There seems to have been no independent review of Ferguson’s work which is unimaginable! A 15,000 line program is nothing. I will be glad to write a model like this in two weeks and will only charge $1 million instead of $79 million. If you really want one to work globally, no problem. It will take a bit more time and the price will be at a discount – only $50 million on sale – refunds not accepted as is the deal with Imperial College. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/i-have-reviewed-fergusons-code/ 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
El Nikko + 2,145 nb May 12, 2020 (edited) Of bits, bugs and responsibility in the public square By Chris von Csefalvay 2 days ago05932 views Share: Data in societyEpidemiology &c. Usually, I wake to the sound of the bluejays in our spacious backyard. This morning, I woke to the ‘priority alert’ from my phone, indicating an urgent message. It was 0515 – early even by the standards of epidemiologists in these times. My friend’s message was terse but foreboding – “look at this”, followed by a link to Github. At the end of the link was the codebase promised for weeks by Neil Ferguson, the computational epidemiologist who has advised the UK government on COVID-19 related steps until his recent resignation. I have previously been a staunch defender of Ferguson’s approach – his model was (and is) theoretically sound, and probably as good as such models will ever get. Prediction, of course, is difficult. Especially when it comes to the future, as Niels Bohr is credited of saying. Using a method that relies on simulating populations in cells and microcells, it combines the granularity and stochastics of agent-based models without requiring the resources typical for agent-based simulation. His model, versions of which were used in previous outbreaks, has been the de facto gold standard to the UK government. And looking at the code, that raises some extremely serious questions. I would like to explore some of these issues, but will not go into a detailed analysis of the code, for one reason – the code eventually (and reluctantly) shared by Imperial College is almost definitely not the code used to generate forecasts for HM Government. We know that at some point, Github and even John Carmack (yes, that John Carmack!) has been involved in cleaning up some of the quality issues. Imperial, meanwhile, obstinately resists releasing original code – both via Github and under a valid FOIA request that Imperial’s lawyers are entirely misinterpreting.1) We can, however, safely assume from the calibre of the people who have worked on the improved version that whatever was there was worse. The quality issue First of all, the elephant in the room: code quality. It is very difficult to look at the Ferguson code with any understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, or even tolerable. Neil Ferguson himself attempts a very thin apologia for this: I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background – I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics… — neil_ferguson (@neil_ferguson) March 22, 2020 That, sir, is not a feature. It’s not even a bug. It’s somewhere between negligence and unintentional but grave scientific misconduct. For those who are not in the computational fields: “my code is too complicated for you to get it” is not an acceptable excuse. It is the duty of everyone who releases code to document it – within the codebase or outside (or a combination of the two). Greater minds than Neil Ferguson (with all due respect) have a tough enough time navigating a large code base, and especially where you have collaborators, it is not unusual to need a second or two to remember what a particular function is doing or what the arguments should be like. Or, to put it more bluntly: for thirteen years, taxpayer funding from the MRC went to Ferguson and his team, and all it produced was code that violated one of the most fundamental precepts of good software development – intelligibility. The policy issue When you write code, you should always do so as if your life depended on it. For us working in the field of modelling infectious diseases, lives being at stake is common, sometimes to the point of losing track of it. I don’t, of course, know whether that is what indeed happened, but I doubt anybody would want to trust their lives to thousands of lines of cobbled-together code. Yet for some reason, the UK government treated Ferguson’s model as almost dogmatic truth. This highlights an important issue: politicians have not been taught enough about data-driven decision-making, especially not where predictive data is involved. There is wide support for a science-driven response to COVID-19, but very little scrutiny of the science behind many of the predictions that informed early public health measures. Hopefully, a Royal Commission with subpoena powers will have the opportunity to review in detail whether Ferguson intentionally hid the model from HM Government the way he hid it from the rest of the world or whether the government’s experts just did not understand how to scrutinise or assess a model – or, the worst case scenario: they saw the model and still let it inform what might have been the greatest single decision HM Government has made since 1939, without looking for alternatives (there are many other modelling approaches, and many developers who have written better code). The community issue Perhaps the biggest issue is, however, the response to people who dare question the refusal by Imperial to release the original source code. This is best summarised by the responses of their point man on Github, who is largely spending his time locking issues and calling people dumb & toxic: It may merit attention that the MRC is taxpayer-funded – the self-same taxpayer who is deemed unfit to even behold what he paid for. This is the worst of ‘closed science’, something many scientists (myself included) have worked hard to dismantle over the years. Publicly funded science imposes a moral obligation to present its results to the funder (that is, the taxpayer), and it should perhaps not be up to the judgment of a junior tech support developer to determine what the public is, or is not, fit to see. Perhaps as an epidemiologist, I take special umbrage at the presumption that everyone who wishes to see the original code base would be “confused” – maybe I should write to reassure Dr Hinsley that I do understand a little about epidemiology. It is, after all, what I do. The science issue None of these issues are, of course, anywhere near as severe as what this means – a massive leap backwards, erosion of trust and a complete disclaimer of accountability by publicly funded scientists. There is a moral obligation for epidemiologists to work for the common good – and that implies an obligation of openness and honesty. I am reminded of the medical paternalism that characterised Eastern Bloc medicine, where patients were rarely told what ailed them and never received honest answers. To see this writ large amidst a pandemic by what by all accounts (mine included) has been deemed one of the world’s best computational epidemiology units is not so much infuriating as it is deeply saddening. One of my friends, former Navy SEAL Jocko Willink, counseled in his recent book to “take the high ground, or the high ground will take you”. Epidemiology had the chance to seize and hold the narrative, through openness, transparency and honesty about the forecasts made. It had the chance, during this day in the sun of ours, to show the public just how powerful our analytical abilities have become. Instead, petty academic jealousy, obsessions with institutional prestige and an understandable but still disproportionate fear of being ‘misinterpreted’ by people who ‘do not understand epidemiology’ have given the critics of forecasting and computational epidemiology fertile breeding ground. They are entirely justified now in criticising any forecasts that come out of the Imperial model – even if the forecasts are correct. There will no doubt be public health consequences to the loss of credibility the entire profession has suffered, and in the end, it’s all due to the outdated ‘proprietary’ attitudes and the airs of superiority by a few insulated scientists who, somehow, somewhere, left the track of serving public health and humanity for the glittering prizes offered elsewhere. With their abandonment of the high road, our entire profession’s claim to the public trust might well be forfeited – in a sad twist of irony, at a time that could well have been the Finest Hour of computational epidemiology. And while we may someday regain the respect of the public we swore to serve (perhaps after a detailed inquiry into what went wrong), for now there will be never glad confident morning again. References 1. ↑ Section 22A allows for non-disclosure of ongoing research if it is in the public interest. It’s not that I disagree with Imperial on whether it’s in the public interest or not to release the code: it’s that I cannot for the life of me see how anyone could reasonably consider that it is not. Which just so happens to be the administrative law standard when adjudicating issues like this. https://chrisvoncsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model/ Edited May 12, 2020 by El Nikko 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Douglas Buckland + 6,308 May 12, 2020 8 hours ago, nstoika said: It looks like the Kurds only told you and they "forgot" to give that info to USA Government so they can clear the reason for invasion. Well, if you do some of your own homework and quit believing everything you see on TV.....: Poisonous gas is a WMD Saddam not only possessed poisonous gas, but was willing to use it on the Kurds. Just prior to the beginning of the first war, many convoys were seen leaving Iraq for Syria. Now Syria is using poison gas. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Radha + 262 RK May 12, 2020 Jee looks like a reincarnation of Mr. Jim Profit who disappeared as soon as he arrived. Same parroting approach. Jee, with all due respects, you are wasting your time here. We think for ourselves and don't blindly follow those who repeat the official MSM lies. We know you are not open minded to find the truth, so we will not waste any time responding to you anymore. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Radha + 262 RK May 12, 2020 Hidden costs of lockdown in UK are significant https://www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/05/09/hidden-costs-of-lockdown-are-great-help-offered-for-those-suffering-from-mental-health-during-coronavirus-pandemic/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ward Smith + 6,615 May 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, Radha said: Jee looks like a reincarnation of Mr. Jim Profit who disappeared as soon as he arrived. Same parroting approach. Jee, with all due respects, you are wasting your time here. We think for ourselves and don't blindly follow those who repeat the official MSM lies. We know you are not open minded to find the truth, so we will not waste any time responding to you anymore. As soon as I busted Jim for referring to France as "there" he disappeared and this troll immediately showed up. Coincidence? I think not. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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