Mexico Expects Meeting Of Ministers To Decide Scope Of NAFTA Deal Basics

The United States, Mexico and Canada have made significant advances on reworking the NAFTA trade deal and ministers will meet in the coming days to determine the scope to agree on the basics of a deal, Mexico’s economy minister said. Ministers and negotiating teams have been meeting for weeks to try to narrow their differences, and Guajardo also held out hope for progress on NAFTA at a summit in Peru that begins on April 13. A common solution is close?

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According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, six million U.S. jobs depend on U.S. trade with Mexico, a flow that has been greatly facilitated by NAFTA, which has helped eliminate costly tariff and non-tariff barriers.

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I expected reaction of Mexico's minister on latest DT twitt which is in connection with NAFTA: "The big Caravan of People from Honduras, now coming across Mexico and heading to our “Weak Laws” Border, had better be stopped before it gets there. Cash cow NAFTA is in play, as is foreign aid to Honduras and the countries that allow this to happen..."

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5 minutes ago, franco said:

I expected reaction of Mexico's minister on latest DT twitt which is in connection with NAFTA: "The big Caravan of People from Honduras, now coming across Mexico and heading to our “Weak Laws” Border, had better be stopped before it gets there. Cash cow NAFTA is in play, as is foreign aid to Honduras and the countries that allow this to happen..."

They have already reacted: "Mexican immigration authorities said they plan on disbanding the Central American caravan by Wednesday in Oaxaca. The most vulnerable will get humanitarian visas. Everyone else in the caravan, which has traveled through Mexico for days from Chiapas, will have to petition the Mexican government for permission to stay in the country or will have to leave"

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There have been seven rounds of talks..... Some facts about Mexico's role in NAFTA
First at all, the end of a free-trade agreement does not mean the end of trade. Only about half of Mexico’s exports to the U.S. are now covered by NAFTA, in part because of all the complicated paperwork.... 
Under international trade rules, Mexico would have more freedom to raise tariffs on its imports because its “bound rates” — the maximum rate a WTO member can impose — are higher than the “Most Favored Nation” rates the U.S. would impose, since advanced economies have agreed to apply lower rates than developing countries. For example, Mexico could raise its tariff on corn, one of the largest U.S. exports to Mexico, to 37 percent without breaking any rules....
The greatest job loss could come from U.S. companies shutting down their Mexican factories and moving them to another country, like Ford did last year when it canceled plans to build a car plant in San Luis Potosi, a Mexican town, and built it in China instead. 
Oxford Economics estimates Mexico’s gross domestic product would lose 4 percentage points by 2022 and fall into a technical recession by mid-2019. In a survey of more than 100 financial professionals at a Bloomberg FX18 Summit in Mexico City in March, almost three-quarters said that the peso would be trading at between 18 and 20 to the U.S. dollar by the end of 2018....  
Mexico recently joined 10 other countries, including Australia, Japan and Canada, in signing a successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. It also expects soon to finish updating its existing free-trade agreement with the European Union. China is also on Mexico’s sights. 
Winner(s)? For long run no winner(s) in this story....

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I think that everything about NAFTA has a more populism than economy. A Nobel laureate Jean Tirole (winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2014) tried to make distinction between economic and populism. In one of his interviews he said:  "We need to have common rules of the game. People who voted for Trump, or Brexit, or Le Pen and Mélenchon in France are by and large very concerned about their future with robots, with rising debts, with inequality and unemployment. We have neglected some people, the losers of globalization, and we have a society that’s more and more unequal. It might get worse, unfortunately, with new technology. When people are afraid or upset, they also tend to dismiss their current governments and the experts. They want a big change, which is often supplied by populists who offer fairytales and the wrong policies. People are trying to grab something that will give them hope."  

 

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10 minutes ago, jpZelabal said:

I think that everything about NAFTA has a more populism than economy. A Nobel laureate Jean Tirole (winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2014) tried to make distinction between economic and populism. In one of his interviews he said:  "We need to have common rules of the game. People who voted for Trump, or Brexit, or Le Pen and Mélenchon in France are by and large very concerned about their future with robots, with rising debts, with inequality and unemployment. We have neglected some people, the losers of globalization, and we have a society that’s more and more unequal. It might get worse, unfortunately, with new technology. When people are afraid or upset, they also tend to dismiss their current governments and the experts. They want a big change, which is often supplied by populists who offer fairytales and the wrong policies. People are trying to grab something that will give them hope."  

 

There is no big difference between economics and politics. "Where there is politics or economics there are no morals." Friedrich Schlegel

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NAFTA, MEXICO, CARAVAN and MILITARY- latest

President Trump said that he planned to order the military to guard parts of the southern border, proposing a remarkable escalation of his efforts to crack down on migrants entering the country illegal.

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