U.S. Cars Will No Longer Need 55mpg Fuel Efficiency By 2025.

The EPA plans to revise rules requiring automakers to gradually reduce polluting emissions and ramp up fuel efficiency. The mandate to produce cars and light-duty trucks that run 55 miles per gallon by 2025 are expected to hold at the 2020 level of 42.5 miles per gallon, according to Roger Read, senior analyst at Wells Fargo. Premium gasoline prices have been surging amid the tighter restrictions, and adoption of more efficient vehicles has lagged under so-called CAFE standards. 
 

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The destruction of the environment, destruction of clean air and water, seems to be the only goal of EPA, that giving huge wealth to an already wealthy oil industry.

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On 4/3/2018 at 1:11 PM, damirUSBiH said:

The destruction of the environment, destruction of clean air and water, seems to be the only goal of EPA, that giving huge wealth to an already wealthy oil industry.

Not really, the goal seems to be to avoid the destruction of our economy.  Impossible to live without oil.  And it does not come from magic.

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On 4/19/2018 at 5:02 PM, AZDuffman said:

Not really, the goal seems to be to avoid the destruction of our economy.  Impossible to live without oil.  And it does not come from magic.

This is true - oil does play an incredible role in our world's economy. It'll be interesting to see how renewable will play in the global economy 15-20 years from now. We are already seeing strong investment in both Wind and Solar these past couple of years. Solar in itself employs more workers than oil,gas, and coal combined. @AZDuffman

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Oil isn't going away, I see the industry having to refocus on fuels that aren't going away anytime soon. Like let's say, the idea of aircraft lugging around giant batteries and having electric motor propulsion is just completely implausible for the coming decades.

You can be pro-fuel efficiency and pro-renewables at the same time as seeing a future for fossil fuels.

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(edited)

It doesn't matter because by 2025 electric vehicles will be cheaper than ICE vehicles to buy. They are already cheaper to run and maintain. Which means that by 2025, near a 100% of all new sold cars, trucks, tractors, will be electric. The law is irrelevant.

Edited by JunoTen
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(edited)

27 minutes ago, Jouhou said:

Oil isn't going away, I see the industry having to refocus on fuels that aren't going away anytime soon. Like let's say, the idea of aircraft lugging around giant batteries and having electric motor propulsion is just completely implausible for the coming decades.

You can be pro-fuel efficiency and pro-renewables at the same time as seeing a future for fossil fuels.

There are already contracts for electric jets https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-boeing-backed-startup-targets-2022-debut-for-electric-plane-2/

The goal of airlines is to reduce the costs by electrifying short-distance trips in the 2020s.

Edited by JunoTen
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Lemme know when they make lightweight batteries that won't weigh a commercial aircraft to the ground. And as someone who has worked on high power electric motors, good luck making those safe and reliable enough for the travelling public to trust.

They're thinking in terms of those octo-copter drones. Key difference is they don't have a human payload in them, which changes things... A lot.

I don't mean to poo-poo on innovation. I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm saying it's going to happen on a timeline spanning decades. Who ever thinks this is a thing that's just going to happen just like that has no experience working with things like this.

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US cars are not very popular abroad as they consume too much. If the administration remove the fuel efficiency rules and US car manufacturers feel less pression to improve fuel efficiency US cars won't be able to comply with more restrictive regulations abroad and US car exports will crash.

But I can imagine that the Trump administration will soon add a new tariff on fuel efficient  and EV foreign cars to protect the US market.

 

So you'll have a US market where Americans are driving american heavilly consuming cars and the rest of the world turning to fuel-efficient gasoline cars and EV's.

 

Europe should offer political asylum to Elon Musk.

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Impossible to live without oil.  And it does not come from magic.

 

Back in 2004, I owned a peugeot 405 Estate. It is my contention that this model was the most over engineered car to come off of a production line - for a number of reasons, most irrelovant to this topic. However due to the fuel pump which pre heated the fuel oil before it was run through the injectors, it was able to run on maize oil. Yes, I kid you not just pour the 25 litre drum of corn oil at 40 pence a litre and it would happily run better then running on diesel.  Fuel emissions were limited to carbon. 

All you need to become an fuel oil producer is a large farm.

 

You are right, it does not 'come from magic' but if employ a little grey matter you may be surprised at the number of potential sources.

 

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6 hours ago, JunoTen said:

It doesn't matter because by 2025 electric vehicles will be cheaper than ICE vehicles to buy. They are already cheaper to run and maintain. Which means that by 2025, near a 100% of all new sold cars, trucks, tractors, will be electric. The law is irrelevant.

We have no idea if they will be cheaper by 2025. You are assuming that cost reductions in battery cells and battery packs will continue to decline. You also assume that there will be no raw material shortages, which would create spikes, such as Lithium and Cobalt. Since the Model 3 was announced Cobalt has gone from $20,000/Ton to $70,000/Ton. Lithium prices have also increased but not as much.

I believe you are being way too optimistic on how quickly EVs will replace traditional cars. Even if they do reach price parity, you still have to solve the charging problem.

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17 minutes ago, Refman said:

We have no idea if they will be cheaper by 2025. You are assuming that cost reductions in battery cells and battery packs will continue to decline. You also assume that there will be no raw material shortages, which would create spikes, such as Lithium and Cobalt. Since the Model 3 was announced Cobalt has gone from $20,000/Ton to $70,000/Ton. Lithium prices have also increased but not as much.

I believe you are being way too optimistic on how quickly EVs will replace traditional cars. Even if they do reach price parity, you still have to solve the charging problem.

Battery cost will continue to decline.  Many new battery factories are under construction or planed (the so called gigafactories) and the economy of scale will bring down production cost in the coming years.

There is enough lithium and cobalt available on Earth but  some shortages are possible if the mining sector can't ramp up the supply of lithium and cobalt fast enough to meet the increase in demand. New mining projects are planed but they would need 5 to 10 years to enter production so bottlenecks could occur in the next 10 years but wont last.  Cobalt is perhaps more at risk than lithium as a single and rather unstable country (Democratic Republic of Congo) produces two thirds of the cobalt output and China is trying to secure a very large amount of the cobalt output. But battery manufacturers are reducing the share of cobalt in the batteries and developing cobalt-free batteries.

https://www.electrive.com/2018/05/31/panasonic-to-cut-all-cobalt-from-ev-batteries/

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Guillaume: Agree with all your points, and I have no doubt the EV revolution will come, I just don't think all new cars/trucks will be 100% EV by 2025 like JunoTen and some others believe. In fact I'd be surprised if we're at 50% of new vehicle sales by then

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15 hours ago, JunoTen said:

It doesn't matter because by 2025 electric vehicles will be cheaper than ICE vehicles to buy. They are already cheaper to run and maintain. 

Are they, though? It's cheaper to charge than it is to fill up a tank of gas (especially now), I think, although I don't have figures for that. But Tesla Model S is the most expensive car to insure in America. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/04/electric-car-insurance-woes-evs-have-more-accidents-tesla-model-s-most-expensive-to-insure/

If you add up the cost of an EV, the insurance, the charging, and compare that against an ICE cost to buy, cost to fill, cost to insure, how close are we?

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I find it rather amusing - US institutes strict emission standards targeting CO2 reduction and most powerful law of unintended consequences springs into action - because emissions are normalized to vehicle volume, Ford drops its sedan division and focused on big-a$$ SUVs and trucks. Well done, US of A!

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18 hours ago, Refman said:

 Since the Model 3 was announced Cobalt has gone from $20,000/Ton to $70,000/Ton.

Even more. The Cobalt price is now at $90'000/ton

But even a sharp price increase will not affect the overall price of the car.

The cobalt content of a Tesla Model 3 is close to 5 kg. So the cost of the cobalt content is at current price 5 x 90 = $450

So a 100% increase of the cobalt price will only increase by 1%  the cost of the car.

 

The problem is not the price. The problem is the availability. If the mining output is limited and inferior to the demand, a price increase will not generate an extra supply in the short term. Opening a new mine takes 5 to 10 years.

EV and battery manufacturers are trying to secure the cobalt output they need. And China is leading the race.

http://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/2149027/china-goes-all-out-secure-lithium-cobalt-supplies-key

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On 6/5/2018 at 7:14 PM, Guillaume Albasini said:

EV and battery manufacturers are trying to secure the cobalt output they need. And China is leading the race.

Yes.

The Harvard business model is not only defunct, but obsolete.

There is no doubt that the most resourceful and productive Capitalists in the world - are the Chinese (communists)

There is also no doubt a paper in there somewhere, for someone with the appropriate Phd.

I have no doubt that China's relationship with Iran being interferred with will have some consequences!

 

On 6/5/2018 at 7:14 PM, Guillaume Albasini said:

 

 

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On 4/3/2018 at 6:06 PM, Petar said:

The EPA plans to revise rules requiring automakers to gradually reduce polluting emissions and ramp up fuel efficiency. The mandate to produce cars and light-duty trucks that run 55 miles per gallon by 2025 are expected to hold at the 2020 level of 42.5 miles per gallon, according to Roger Read, senior analyst at Wells Fargo. Premium gasoline prices have been surging amid the tighter restrictions, and adoption of more efficient vehicles has lagged under so-called CAFE standards. 
 

Crazy. The USA wishes to regain the Worlds No.1 Oil Importer title. 

Whats its Balance of Trade deficit?

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On 6/5/2018 at 12:14 AM, Rodent said:

Are they, though? It's cheaper to charge than it is to fill up a tank of gas (especially now), I think, although I don't have figures for that. But Tesla Model S is the most expensive car to insure in America. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/04/electric-car-insurance-woes-evs-have-more-accidents-tesla-model-s-most-expensive-to-insure/

If you add up the cost of an EV, the insurance, the charging, and compare that against an ICE cost to buy, cost to fill, cost to insure, how close are we?

On insurance the Tesla is a poor example because its performance is like that of an F1 car. 

A better comparison would be looking at something more functional and ordinary - Nissan Leaf for example. 

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