Tom Kirkman

The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?

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Starting this thread to counter the concerted 4 am talking points of the panic-mongering mainstream media today.

The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?

Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

cdc-fatality-table.png.2335de933582e577dc665cc9fd52ce8e.png

'Nuff Said….. pic.twitter.com/0nZsydNHNb

— Ethical Skeptic  (@EthicalSkeptic) May 22, 2020

 

Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.

The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.

To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don’t have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.

 

Being alive means there is a risk that you will die in every year of your life. Normally we don't think about this because the probability is very small.

It turns out that even if you are infected with COVID, your increased risk to die vs normal is not very large at all. pic.twitter.com/lrQnTuHYRS

EYdd-PvXQAE72t2.jpg.810ead053a83da0a58f06b6de1ae1ec8.jpg

— Gummi Bear (@gummibear737) May 20, 2020

 

As you can see, even in Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.

While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.

Also, keep in mind, these numbers represent your chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus, aka the infection fatality rate. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place together with the chance of dying from it, many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.

Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent – 1 in 166,666, which is “roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.

We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?

 

Author: Daniel Horowitz
Daniel Horowitz is a senior editor of Conservative Review.

 

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IMHO 100,000 is a powerful threshold, symbolically speaking, as would 1 million..

that why's things are rather sold with a *99 than a *00 price..

Of course anybody who want to emphasys the importance of the death toll wil use this opportunity to touch people minds.

No need for concertation for that.

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image_2e766d9b-4fcb-46a8-963d-c3143dd322be20200526_072746.thumb.jpg.ea8f4100f0f90201459931cf5fac34a6.jpg

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I wonder what we would find if we ‘followed the money’ and found out who is actually making money out of this ‘pandemic’?

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28 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I wonder what we would find if we ‘followed the money’ and found out who is actually making money out of this ‘pandemic’?

Indeed Doug, my understanding is that all six states that used nursing homes for covid patients were near-bankrupt Dem states. However, if you think the Billionaires are behind this, you are wrong, they have lost squillions between them. Best place to look for an answer to origin of pandemic is the article right here today on this website tilted "Can the US win a war against China". https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Is-The-US-Prepared-For-War-With-China.html

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35 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I wonder what we would find if we ‘followed the money’ and found out who is actually making money out of this ‘pandemic’?

 

35 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I wonder what we would find if we ‘followed the money’ and found out who is actually making money out of this ‘pandemic’?

After reading the article Doug, let me interpret it for you. It basically says that US bases in Guam and Okinawa cannot be defended, and that even B2 bombers cannot penetrate Chinese air defenses. When you read between the lines, it is actually a message for China. It says "do you feel lucky punk"? Your country is deliberately playing down your capability in order to get the Chinese into a false sense of security. Once the election over, all bets are off. Maybe Trump will strike first, before the election. The Chinese would not be expecting that. They should be though. One more Chinese mis-step and I suspect DT will strike first. He is more concerned with healing the economy first but once that happens, everyone gonna demand retribution. The latest threat from China is that this virus is "just the tip of the ice-berg", according to China's "Batwoman". In Bloomberg article today. Call me paranoid, but it is my job to read between the lines and I have never been wrong before. China is now openly ridiculing the US and allies around the globe, not to mention punishing us all as much as possible in the trade sphere. They have taken their gloves off, and we have barely responded. China thinks this is just another sign of weakness. Truth is, they just don't understand how democracy works. Once the dust settles, despair will turn into anger. Fear will turn into hate. And hate will turn into war. At the moment, there is still much hope and denial. Wait until house prices crash. Thanks to China?

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(edited)

11 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Starting this thread to counter the concerted 4 am talking points of the panic-mongering mainstream media today.

Seems more concerted IMHO

https://twitter.com/search?q=effects ("lupus" OR "arthritis" OR "RA") ( "years" OR "since") ("no" OR "none" OR "zero") (friend OR friends OR sister OR family OR mother OR father OR brother OR cousin)&src=typed_query&f=live

Edited by Jim Profit

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Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 data reveals higher Infection Prevalence Rates and lower Fatality Rates than widely reported
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.25.20112466v1

 

"For Santa Clara and Chelsea, both in the USA, the most likely IFR values are 0.3-0.4%. Kobe, Japan is very unusual in comparison with the others with values an order of magnitude less than the others at, 0.001%. The IFR for Spain is centred around 1%. England and Wales lie between Spain and the USA/German values with an IFR around 0.8%."

"In response the adjusted estimates for IFR are most likely to be in the range 0.3%-0.5%."

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8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I wonder what we would find if we ‘followed the money’ and found out who is actually making money out of this ‘pandemic’?

I wonder who has interest to reopen ASAP ?

Seems there is a concerted effort to influence opinion..
https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5 

Georgia governor misleading georgians.. Others maybe ?

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(edited)

12 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Starting this thread to counter the concerted 4 am talking points of the panic-mongering mainstream media today.

The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?

Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

cdc-fatality-table.png.2335de933582e577dc665cc9fd52ce8e.png

 

If you include a bunch of asymptomatic case "cases" the stats do look a lot better. 

Still what is 0.26% of the USA, or the world? 

It is extremely contagious, and spread by the asymptomatic, so most will will eventually get it (even though they may feel nothing).

328,200,000 (0.0026) = 853,320 dead 

About 1/8th of the way to the finish USA. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Enthalpic

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11 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I wonder what we would find if we ‘followed the money’ and found out who is actually making money out of this ‘pandemic’?

I think a lot of people are making money off of facemasks, hand sanitizer, gloves, and some preventive medicines that normally wouldn't sell and etc. 

I think that all the forces in the world arrayed against President Trump's reelection have actually lost a lot of money and credibility in the long run. The whole world has lost economically in the short run. It is the long run that counts most though. Exposing the evil one will work out well IMHO. 

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(edited)

49 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I think a lot of people are making money off of facemasks, hand sanitizer, gloves, and some preventive medicines that normally wouldn't sell and etc. 

I think that all the forces in the world arrayed against President Trump's reelection have actually lost a lot of money and credibility in the long run. The whole world has lost economically in the short run. It is the long run that counts most though. Exposing the evil one will work out well IMHO. 

How long is the "long run?"  Trump is old and at most can "lead" for what another 4.5 years?  Any plan to greatness needs to be relatively fast or his legacy will only be only death and bankruptcy.

If things went down 50% during his first term, things need to go up by 100% in his second term just to get back to even.

Edited by Enthalpic

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57 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I think a lot of people are making money off of facemasks, hand sanitizer, gloves, and some preventive medicines that normally wouldn't sell and etc.

Food delivery services, probably funeral homes (eventually).  

Plexiglass shields are huge business, guy I know who owns a liquor store has no plans to take his down after the virus.  He paid extra for a bullet proof sneeze guard. 

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(edited)

If Trump wins re-election, 2021 GDP will look very much like 2019! IMHO

Edited by In Suspense
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3 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

If you include a bunch of asymptomatic case "cases" the stats do look a lot better. 

Still what is 0.26% of the USA, or the world? 

It is extremely contagious, and spread by the asymptomatic, so most will will eventually get it (even though they may feel nothing).

328,200,000 (0.0026) = 853,320 dead 

About 1/8th of the way to the finish USA. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doesn’t this assume that there is no ‘herd immunity’?

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4 hours ago, Jim Profit said:

I wonder who has interest to reopen ASAP ?

Seems there is a concerted effort to influence opinion..
https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/nearly-half-of-reopen-america-twitter-accounts-are-bots-report-2020-5 

Georgia governor misleading georgians.. Others maybe ?

I would say that everyone who needs a paycheck is interested as are all business owners.

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1 hour ago, Enthalpic said:

How long is the "long run?"  Trump is old and at most can "lead" for what another 4.5 years?  Any plan to greatness needs to be relatively fast or his legacy will only be only death and bankruptcy.

If things went down 50% during his first term, things need to go up by 100% in his second term just to get back to even.

Are you saying that Trump will be blamed for CAUSING the pandemic AND the responses by the governors?

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4 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Doesn’t this assume that there is no ‘herd immunity’?

Yes and no. 

Yes, you are correct that sufficient herd immunity could eliminate the virus.

No, in that many viruses do not go away with herd immunity.  I've never had a cold sore or genital wart but I've certainly been exposed to those viruses.

 

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(edited)

7 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Are you saying that Trump will be blamed for CAUSING the pandemic AND the responses by the governors?

No, well not by me at least. 

I would like trump to understand that he is not in control of the situation; his fault or not.  He must understand that he is not the only elected official and is not God.

Edited by Enthalpic

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8 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Yes and no. 

Yes, you are correct that sufficient herd immunity could eliminate the virus.

No, in that many viruses do not go away with herd immunity.  I've never had a cold sore or genital wart but I've certainly been exposed to those viruses.

 

My point was that there should be some herd immunity, limiting the numbers of available hosts. Is that taken into account in the 853,320 number?

It was a simple question.

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7 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

No, well not by me at least. 

I would like trump to understand that he is not in control of the situation; his fault or not.  He must understand that he is not the only elected official and is not God.

Again, the power of the Fed over State Governors is limited by the Constitution. That being the case, will the State Governors be held responsible for their actions diring this pandemic, good or bad, or will EVERY poor decision be blamed on Trump?

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7 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Again, the power of the Fed over State Governors is limited by the Constitution. That being the case, will the State Governors be held responsible for their actions diring this pandemic, good or bad, or will EVERY poor decision be blamed on Trump?

Only if he says he will do things that he actually has no power to deliver. He is attracting attention and blame to himself.

 

“The authority of the president of the United States having to do with the subject we’re talking about is total,” Trump said at a White House news conference on Monday. “I have the ultimate authority”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/trump-declares-he-has-power-to-open-up-states-not-governors

No, you don't...

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15 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

My point was that there should be some herd immunity, limiting the numbers of available hosts. Is that taken into account in the 853,320 number?

It was a simple question.

 

No, herd immunity was not considered in the 853,320 number. 

Simple answer.

 

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