Oil Prices To Fall Below $60?

The recent IMF report has some of the most bearish oil price predictions I have seen in a long time - suggesting global supply is going to outrun demand through 2023 despite a serious lack of investment and seeing oil prices averaging $58 next year... https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IMF-Expect-Oil-To-Fall-Below-60.html 

This seems to be against all the bullish sentiment out there and even below Barclay's bearish forecast.

Is the IMF traditionally this bearish? Are these supply projections realistic in such a tight market and with such an investment deficit?

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The IMF is just a bank... a serious lack of capex in oil and gas in the last couple of years will take its toll on global supply for sure.

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Nobody knows - I just saw a video today from the Head of Commodities at Bank of America saying oil will be at $80 at the end of the 2nd quarter and will continue for the next year or so. 

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11 minutes ago, CMOP said:

Nobody knows - I just saw a video today from the Head of Commodities at Bank of America saying oil will be at $80 at the end of the 2nd quarter and will continue for the next year or so. 

Yeah, and I know there is a lot of variation out there - but I can at least understand the argument for a very bullish case. The IMF didn't even include the risk of a China-U.S. trade war in their prediction - so the $58 target for next year isn't even taking into account what could be considered the single most bearish event in the market (with the exclusion of OPEC deciding to open the taps again).  

That supply forecast has me bamboozled :|

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On 4/18/2018 at 7:33 PM, CMOP said:

Nobody knows 

This is all we need to remember. There was an academic study a few years back that looked into why you can never predict oil prices with any reliable degree of accuracy. Forgot its name but it was very neat.

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The collusion cartel of Russia/OPEC adds uncertainty along with the geopolitics of say Yemen attacking the Saudi. Not to forget the bombings of pipe lines in Nigeria. There is more but that list will bamboozle most of us.

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