OPEC+ oil cut deal for 1 month，But Why the oil price down?

[jace lau + 2]

Opec, Russia and allies have agreed to extend record oil production cuts until the end of July, prolonging a deal that has helped crude prices double in the past two months by withdrawing almost 10% of global supplies from the market.

OPEC likely to extend oil cut deal for 1 month

But Why the oil price down?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

This is what happens when you continue to pump into a saturated market when every barrel of storage is full or leased.

Until this glut is dried up, don’t expect the price to increase substantially.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Douglas Buckland

[0R0 + 6,251]

1. Markets were expecting a longer term cut, this was a disappointment

2. higher CV19 cases in open states in the US that some fear would cause consumer isolation if not renewed shutdowns.

[Hotone + 412]

18 hours ago, 0R0 said:

1. Markets were expecting a longer term cut, this was a disappointment

2. higher CV19 cases in open states in the US that some fear would cause consumer isolation if not renewed shutdowns.

Looks like there will not be any second shutdown.  America is going all in for herd immunity

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again.html

[0R0 + 6,251]

6 hours ago, Hotone said:

Looks like there will not be any second shutdown.  America is going all in for herd immunity

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/treasury-secretary-mnuchin-says-we-cant-shut-down-the-economy-again.html

The shutdown never made sense in the first place, the extension of the shutdowns past the 2 weeks in the task force recommendation was downright stupid. Or in turn, malicious action attempting to create an economic crisis and social instability as is indicated in the socialist activist handbook.

The no shutdown promise is still to be tested. Newsom and other Dem governors are opening only because the administration and Senate are holding their stimulus, i.e. bailout, hostage to opening up 

There is every reason to go for herd immunity. There is no reason to be in a rush to get there. People in air conditioned public spaces should be wearing masks, distancing matters little in an enclosed space with no air flow and insufficient filtration, particularly when it is cold, which extends the life of the virus in the air and on surfaces. . 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

 People in air conditioned public spaces should be wearing masks, distancing matters little in an enclosed space with no air flow and insufficient filtration, particularly when it is cold, which extends the life of the virus in the air and on surfaces. . 

The air conditioning discussion interests me.

I fully agree that when it gets real hot people will cram together indoors to escape the heat which might increase infection rates.

On the other hand I'm not sure the air conditioners provide no protection.  I have a small unit with a simple foam filter and a dehumidifier drain/evaporator. It seems to clean and freshen the air, and is recommended during low-air quality events from forest fires etc.

Any real data showing air conditioners do not clean the air?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Any real data showing air conditioners do not clean the air?

You might try looking up the history of Legionnaires' Disease in that hotel in Philadelphia. 

The air conditioners provided a fertile breeding ground for LEgionnaire's, which is (of course) yet another SARS disease, although the type of viral matter was not fully understood at that time.  After the deaths of the visitors, the hotel became the Plague, and nobody would stay in it.  Eventually the entire building was torn down, by men in those hazmat suits, the rubble carted off to oblivion. 

Air conditioning is a notorious vector for lung-infection diseases. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

There is no such thing as "immunity," or "herd immunity," in this coronavirus.  There are already cases of recovered victims being re-infected. 

Unfortunately, unless the virus is completely stamped out, it will be with us forever, much like (for example) Lyme disease. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

The implications of this particular bit of nasty viral matter are staggering.  I invite readers to ponder the tourism statistics for the amount of tourist dollars (OK, Euros) spent in Spain last month.  

The total amount spent by foreign visitors to Spain for the entire month was Zero.   That's right, not one thin dime.   

Spain is in complete financial collapse.  It can only be saved by the German taxpayer.  Are they willing?  Probably not. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 6/9/2020 at 11:52 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

This is what happens when you continue to pump into a saturated market when every barrel of storage is full or leased.

Until this glut is dried up, don’t expect the price to increase substantially.

I find it hard to believe that the glut is going to be soaked up any time soon.  Remember that there are these huge fleets of tankers sitting at anchor around the globe, unable to unload oil due to the shore tanks being stuffed.  And that is costing serious coin.  And you have entire fleets of rail tankcars sitting up in Canada with no place to unload.  

It is my view that the oil market is substantially over-priced.  It should be somewhere around $22 - $26. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

The air conditioning discussion interests me.

I fully agree that when it gets real hot people will cram together indoors to escape the heat which might increase infection rates.

On the other hand I'm not sure the air conditioners provide no protection.  I have a small unit with a simple foam filter and a dehumidifier drain/evaporator. It seems to clean and freshen the air, and is recommended during low-air quality events from forest fires etc.

Any real data showing air conditioners do not clean the air?

The precipitation process does clean the air. But not as completely the way a HEPA filter does. HEPA filters, as a result of that, they clog up. Which is why they are rarely applied in commercial applications, which are those in which people are transmitting the virus.

 

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

There is no such thing as "immunity," or "herd immunity," in this coronavirus.  There are already cases of recovered victims being re-infected. 

Unfortunately, unless the virus is completely stamped out, it will be with us forever, much like (for example) Lyme disease. 

The cases of re-infection are rare and occur in circumstances of severe dosing. Immune means you produce and carry enough antibodies to terminate a certain amount of virus in a given time. If you get a higher dose than that, say by sitting for prolonged times by a patient shedding virus then your immunity would be overwhelmed.  The same is true for most other viral immunities.

 

The CV19 virus is going to be with us forever. It won't be stamed out. Which is why China's and New Zealand's efforts to stamp it out completely are senseless and simply set them up to choose between being isolated from the world or having occasional breakouts to which most of their people are not immune. Not particularly smart for a virus that has such a low mortality and already has viable treatments.

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

On 6/9/2020 at 11:52 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

This is what happens when you continue to pump into a saturated market when every barrel of storage is full or leased.

Until this glut is dried up, don’t expect the price to increase substantially.

I find it hard to believe that the glut is going to be soaked up any time soon.  Remember that there are these huge fleets of tankers sitting at anchor around the globe, unable to unload oil due to the shore tanks being stuffed.  And that is costing serious coin.  And you have entire fleets of rail tankcars sitting up in Canada with no place to unload.  

It is my view that the oil market is substantially over-priced.  It should be somewhere around $22 - $26. 

The markets, oil included, have presumed a recovery to pre- Wuhan coronavirus conditions for the most part. That on a basis of the main industries who were victims of the crisis resuming partial activity to bring them to cash flow breakeven having refinanced themselves with a very large issuance of long term debt. They won't go bankrupt in the interim so their stock prices can reflect their earnings potential into the intermediate and long terms.

People will learn from this episode of breakouts that they should practice better protection, and will do so increasingly. So the economy will recover at about the same speed it has been, with several regional hiccups as local breakouts send people back home periodically. But there will not be a general shutdown. Even local ones are in doubt, as people will learn to be careful when they need to be.

 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

33 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

The markets, oil included, have presumed a recovery to pre- Wuhan coronavirus conditions for the most part. That on a basis of the main industries who were victims of the crisis resuming partial activity to bring them to cash flow breakeven having refinanced themselves with a very large issuance of long term debt. They won't go bankrupt in the interim so their stock prices can reflect their earnings potential into the intermediate and long terms.

People will learn from this episode of breakouts that they should practice better protection, and will do so increasingly. So the economy will recover at about the same speed it has been, with several regional hiccups as local breakouts send people back home periodically. But there will not be a general shutdown. Even local ones are in doubt, as people will learn to be careful when they need to be.

 

I personally think that weeks if not months too late that the working poor are going to realise that they weren't at all at risk and yet they've been the worst affected and lost everything because of the 'lockdown'. Arguably they may come to the conclusion that they lost everything to save the old (boomers) who've had a better life then they could achieve and then there's the generation behind them. Governments faced with the huge corona-bill will get to decide on whether to increase taxes on an ever shrinking population of tax paying workers or hit pensions and inheritance and the angry populous will eagerly vote for the later.

I love your optimism and you are well educated to say the least but I just don't see anything other than a disaster unfolding. I also would love for me to be wrong and I will readily admit so in a few months if I am but I have to record my own opinions somewhere and this place will do, it's fun to go back a few years to see what you thought was going to happen in the future.

So in this post (now stuck out there on the internet) is my believe that things are collapsing slowly around us and we're yet to even see the peak of the mess which will hit in 2-4 months I guess.

Cheers

N

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

So in this post (now stuck out there on the internet) is my believe that things are collapsing slowly around us and we're yet to even see the peak of the mess which will hit in 2-4 months I guess.

I would agree with you. 

I would be even more pessimistic.  Vast amounts of capital have been incinerated.  Equally bad, the spirit  (enthusiasm) of the entrepreneurial class has been wrecked.  Nobody wants to risk remaining capital.  Even in construction, there are lots of projects that are stalled and are not going to be completed.  For example, a project in Newport, VT that was an entire city block, where the block is levelled and the only thing out there is rubble, is not going to get built, that block is history.  maybe it can be filled in with earth and made into a park.  But for commerce (and taxes), forget it. 

Then there is the large shopping center, including the big Macy's Department Store, in Downtown Burlington VT.  That all get levelled in the idea that a big 14-story commercial block would be built over several downtown blocks, all fancy with second-level enclosed walkways.  So the buildings got demolished and there is this big parking lot there now.  The new construction?  Forget those ideas, nobody is going to build a brick and mortar shoppping center today.  All gone, history. 

Meanwhile, that US-Canada border is not even open! 

[El Nikko + 2,145]

4 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I would agree with you. 

I would be even more pessimistic.  Vast amounts of capital have been incinerated.  Equally bad, the spirit  (enthusiasm) of the entrepreneurial class has been wrecked.  Nobody wants to risk remaining capital.  Even in construction, there are lots of projects that are stalled and are not going to be completed.  For example, a project in Newport, VT that was an entire city block, where the block is levelled and the only thing out there is rubble, is not going to get built, that block is history.  maybe it can be filled in with earth and made into a park.  But for commerce (and taxes), forget it. 

Then there is the large shopping center, including the big Macy's Department Store, in Downtown Burlington VT.  That all get levelled in the idea that a big 14-story commercial block would be built over several downtown blocks, all fancy with second-level enclosed walkways.  So the buildings got demolished and there is this big parking lot there now.  The new construction?  Forget those ideas, nobody is going to build a brick and mortar shoppping center today.  All gone, history. 

Meanwhile, that US-Canada border is not even open! 

I wrote a longer response but kept it to myself in the end but it's really a bad sign when someone like you says something like that. You always came across as someone who'd be the adult in the room telling us to stop with our 'theories'.

So now I am even more sure things are going to be terrible 😂

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Air conditioning is a notorious vector for lung-infection diseases. 

I think that is more a "HVAC" problem than a refrigerant based "air conditioning" problem.  

Air ducts of old buildings contain, hair, mold, vermin,bugs, etc. Add in a water leak and you make a nice soup.

[El Nikko + 2,145]

3 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I think that is more a "HVAC" problem than a refrigerant based "air conditioning" problem.  

Air ducts of old buildings contain, hair, mold, vermin,bugs, etc. Add in a water leak and you make a nice soup.

It was only around 50-100 years that men worked in mines and other terrible conditions and died not much after 40. It's not a man's job to live as long as possible..his job is to provide for his family. Old fashioned I know but this is how we should live...it's rediculous for healthy men to avoid work over something that is no more deadly that driving to work (yes that is the statistics).

Not argueing but since we're living in clown world I thought I'd just say it

Basically I just want to work, I don't care if I have a chance of catching some flu just like I didn't get the jab for all the diseases I could get in Africa..just want to pay the bills and try to enjoy a few days here and there and have some memories.

I just find the whole situation funny in a sad way

[El Nikko + 2,145]

12 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I think that is more a "HVAC" problem than a refrigerant based "air conditioning" problem.  

Air ducts of old buildings contain, hair, mold, vermin,bugs, etc. Add in a water leak and you make a nice soup.

Didn't really mean to quote you as you weren't responding to me...I was just putting a few thoughts out there

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

7 hours ago, El Nikko said:

So now I am even more sure things are going to be terrible 😂

Unfortunately, I predict it will get far, far worse.  To illustrate:  in the sleepy town of Rutland, Vermont are these two plants owned and run by General Electric Aviation.  The plants build internal parts of GE aircraft engines, which engines (when set up differently) becomes prime movers for nat-gas pipeline compressors.  OK, so where is the market today for replacement jet engine turbine blades and compressor spools?  That market is in the toilet.  It has evaporated.  The world's aircraft fleet is sitting out on various disused airports, parked, mothballed.  Delta just came out with their next-quarter forecast, stating that they had cut 95% of their flights.  And the ones still flying are not making any money. OK, so if you have an airline and 19 out of 20 airplanes are not flying, and the one that is, runs out of "engine time" and has to go to the shop for overhaul, are you going to spend those bucks doing that overhaul, or does the airplane head into storage oblivion, and another mothballed airframe, with engines with lots of unused time on them, gets pulled out of storage?  And you can go do that for 19 times in a row before you exhaust the engine sources internally. 

So: who is oging to be out there buying engine overhauls?  Nobody. And if nobody is buying engine overhauls, who is going to be buying those replacement blades and compressor scrolls?  Nobody.  And if nobody is buying anything from those plants, what is GE Aviation going to do with them?  Plate them in bronze and admire them?  

OK, so the plants can still make a few bucks doing military work.  They have contracts for the Blackhawk helicopter - but that's it.  Now the military is going to be getting out of Afghanistan - after 19 years, even the US Army has had enough. Now what?  You are going to run those plants on the demand generated by "training flights"?  Get real. 

GE has other plants that also make those kinds of parts.  GE stock is in the toilet.  GE management is going to consolidate the work.  So, those plants in sleepy Vermont are going to close. The City Fathers don't want to believe it, nobody wanbts to believe it, but I see it coming.  And when it does, the 1,200 workers will have to leave town - there is no substitute employment on the horizon.  I certainly could not absorb them, not at the wages that the GE unions have gained over the decades. 

Each one of those workers has a house in town.  The houses hit the real-estate market - everybody wants to sell before the market collapses.  Now what?  There are no buyers.  OK, so there are a few buyers for houses up in the hills, people from New York City that are fleeing the Plague Disease Lockdown.  A year from now that gets long in the tooth and those people move back to exciting Manhattan, the houses again dumped.  In a depressed market, who is going to build new?  Nobody.  So the construction business takes it in the chin.  Who is going to be buying new pick-up trucks?  Nobody.  Nobody has any money, and the people who had money, their plant just closed.  And the ruin spreads. 

That is what is coming down the road.  Nobody wants to believe it.  Nobody wants to face it.  Nobody even wants to start thinking about thinking on how to face it.  But that does not stop it from coming.  As for the oil markets:  nobody is going to be buying oil, either.  And the houses that still have oil heat  (big in New England)?  Well, I predict they will be heading back to firewood. Lots of that lying about.  Gotta cut your costs.  Just lovely.

And for the record:  "Government," however constituted, is completely helpless to do anything about it.  These vast injections of trillions will end up creating great instabilities, and that leads to more chaos. I predict it will get far worse.  Sorry, folks, it is what it is.  Thank the Chinese for their penchant of eating African pangolins riddled with those parasite viral strands.  Real smart, that was. 

Edited June 12, 2020 by Jan van Eck

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 6/11/2020 at 7:23 PM, Jan van Eck said:

You might try looking up the history of Legionnaires' Disease in that hotel in Philadelphia. 

The air conditioners provided a fertile breeding ground for LEgionnaire's, which is (of course) yet another SARS disease, although the type of viral matter was not fully understood at that time.  After the deaths of the visitors, the hotel became the Plague, and nobody would stay in it.  Eventually the entire building was torn down, by men in those hazmat suits, the rubble carted off to oblivion. 

Air conditioning is a notorious vector for lung-infection diseases. 

How about humidifiers? Dehumidifiers?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

5 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

How about humidifiers? Dehumidifiers?

Probbly not. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

We live in a hot climate and run our air conditioners pretty much constantly, at least the one in the master bedroom.  I won't get into system details, but one time a few years ago, over a period of days that turned into a couple of weeks, I started noticing an odor that smelled very similar to gas, like from a stove or other type burner.  Except the only gas we use is LPG for the kitchen stove and BBQ outside, and there was no smell at either of these units.  Mixed with that odor, there was something like you might expect out of an older car's exhaust.  Together, it was a faint odor that even my wife and son either couldn't detect or their noses just didn't tell them it was toxic.  Well, I knew that whatever it was it couldn't be healthy.  I looked everywhere for the source: attic, crawlspace, neighbors, etc.  Nothing.  I could not find the source.  Until one day I noticed the smell kind of hit me when we turned on the air conditioner wall unit above the place where we keep and use our automatic drip coffee machine.  So I opened up the unit as best I could but couldn't find anything out of the ordinary.  I'll note that I clean and maintain all our machinery and appliances on a schedule to make sure they operate efficiently and last as long as possible.  So the A/C unit was not dirty, or so I thought.

I got online and did searches about air conditioner smells/odors and finally hit on one that I knew instantly was my problem.  The website talked about "black mold" that grows deep inside the units and can be a serious health hazard.  Here is just one website from a quick search, and what they have to say about it (Note the reference to the CDC, and the similar risks and symptoms to Covid-19):

Is Black Mold on Air Conditioning Vents Dangerous?

(excerpt)

Health Impact of Black Mold

Most people will have some reaction to prolonged exposure to black mold, but it’s much worse for vulnerable populations such as very young children, the elderly, and those with weakened or compromised immune function. Additionally, certain medical conditions, such as allergies or asthma, can further complicate things. Symptoms of potential black mold exposure include:

• Difficulty breathing
• Irritated eyes, nose and/or throat
• Fatigue
• Recurring headaches
• Rashes
• Chronic cough and/or sneezing
• Trouble concentrating
• Nausea
• Vomiting and/or diarrhea

Well, I called a handyman I use and asked him if he knew about this type of mold and could he clean it.  He did and said I needed to do a deep cleaning, with a special sprayer and cleaning liquid.  This entails him taking all covers off the inside unit, wrapping with plastic sheeting, taping it in place, and draining the liquid and removed mold and hard to get to dust and dirt into a five gallon bucket.  The first time he did it I still could not see any obvious dirt or mold, but what ended up in that bucket was as black as can be.  Once finished, the smell was gone.  Now I have deep cleaning done on schedule every 4-6 months.  I highly recommend it.

So, as relates to the discussion above, I'm sure Covid-19 can indeed grow and fester in the air conditioning systems.  A HEPA filter will help for a while, right after deep cleaning, but nothing will substitute actual deep cleaning.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 6/11/2020 at 5:23 PM, Jan van Eck said:

You might try looking up the history of Legionnaires' Disease in that hotel in Philadelphia. 

The air conditioners provided a fertile breeding ground for LEgionnaire's, which is (of course) yet another SARS disease, although the type of viral matter was not fully understood at that time.  After the deaths of the visitors, the hotel became the Plague, and nobody would stay in it.  Eventually the entire building was torn down, by men in those hazmat suits, the rubble carted off to oblivion. 

Air conditioning is a notorious vector for lung-infection diseases. 

Sorry, no. Legionellosis is a bacterial disease. These bacteria  can reproduce in human cells and also in amoebae. For that bacterium, a wet dirty air conditioning system provides such an environment in which amoebea can grow:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legionella_pneumophila

By contrast SARS diseases (Covid-19, SARS, and MERS) are viruses, (specifically coronaviruses): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

A virus cannot reproduce outside of a living cell, and there is no evidence that any coronavirus can infect an amoebea, or any non-mammal.

[Hotone + 412]

14 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Unfortunately, I predict it will get far, far worse.  To illustrate:  in the sleepy town of Rutland, Vermont are these two plants owned and run by General Electric Aviation.  The plants build internal parts of GE aircraft engines, which engines (when set up differently) becomes prime movers for nat-gas pipeline compressors.  OK, so where is the market today for replacement jet engine turbine blades and compressor spools?  That market is in the toilet.  It has evaporated.  The world's aircraft fleet is sitting out on various disused airports, parked, mothballed.  Delta just came out with their next-quarter forecast, stating that they had cut 95% of their flights.  And the ones still flying are not making any money. OK, so if you have an airline and 19 out of 20 airplanes are not flying, and the one that is, runs out of "engine time" and has to go to the shop for overhaul, are you going to spend those bucks doing that overhaul, or does the airplane head into storage oblivion, and another mothballed airframe, with engines with lots of unused time on them, gets pulled out of storage?  And you can go do that for 19 times in a row before you exhaust the engine sources internally. 

So: who is oging to be out there buying engine overhauls?  Nobody. And if nobody is buying engine overhauls, who is going to be buying those replacement blades and compressor scrolls?  Nobody.  And if nobody is buying anything from those plants, what is GE Aviation going to do with them?  Plate them in bronze and admire them?  

OK, so the plants can still make a few bucks doing military work.  They have contracts for the Blackhawk helicopter - but that's it.  Now the military is going to be getting out of Afghanistan - after 19 years, even the US Army has had enough. Now what?  You are going to run those plants on the demand generated by "training flights"?  Get real. 

GE has other plants that also make those kinds of parts.  GE stock is in the toilet.  GE management is going to consolidate the work.  So, those plants in sleepy Vermont are going to close. The City Fathers don't want to believe it, nobody wanbts to believe it, but I see it coming.  And when it does, the 1,200 workers will have to leave town - there is no substitute employment on the horizon.  I certainly could not absorb them, not at the wages that the GE unions have gained over the decades. 

Each one of those workers has a house in town.  The houses hit the real-estate market - everybody wants to sell before the market collapses.  Now what?  There are no buyers.  OK, so there are a few buyers for houses up in the hills, people from New York City that are fleeing the Plague Disease Lockdown.  A year from now that gets long in the tooth and those people move back to exciting Manhattan, the houses again dumped.  In a depressed market, who is going to build new?  Nobody.  So the construction business takes it in the chin.  Who is going to be buying new pick-up trucks?  Nobody.  Nobody has any money, and the people who had money, their plant just closed.  And the ruin spreads. 

That is what is coming down the road.  Nobody wants to believe it.  Nobody wants to face it.  Nobody even wants to start thinking about thinking on how to face it.  But that does not stop it from coming.  As for the oil markets:  nobody is going to be buying oil, either.  And the houses that still have oil heat  (big in New England)?  Well, I predict they will be heading back to firewood. Lots of that lying about.  Gotta cut your costs.  Just lovely.

And for the record:  "Government," however constituted, is completely helpless to do anything about it.  These vast injections of trillions will end up creating great instabilities, and that leads to more chaos. I predict it will get far worse.  Sorry, folks, it is what it is.  Thank the Chinese for their penchant of eating African pangolins riddled with those parasite viral strands.  Real smart, that was. 

Some of the workers can go and work for you; but will have to be realistic and take a pay cut.  However, it will take some time for them to lower their expectations

[Hotone + 412]

38 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

We live in a hot climate and run our air conditioners pretty much constantly, at least the one in the master bedroom.  I won't get into system details, but one time a few years ago, over a period of days that turned into a couple of weeks, I started noticing an odor that smelled very similar to gas, like from a stove or other type burner.  Except the only gas we use is LPG for the kitchen stove and BBQ outside, and there was no smell at either of these units.  Mixed with that odor, there was something like you might expect out of an older car's exhaust.  Together, it was a faint odor that even my wife and son either couldn't detect or their noses just didn't tell them it was toxic.  Well, I knew that whatever it was it couldn't be healthy.  I looked everywhere for the source: attic, crawlspace, neighbors, etc.  Nothing.  I could not find the source.  Until one day I noticed the smell kind of hit me when we turned on the air conditioner wall unit above the place where we keep and use our automatic drip coffee machine.  So I opened up the unit as best I could but couldn't find anything out of the ordinary.  I'll note that I clean and maintain all our machinery and appliances on a schedule to make sure they operate efficiently and last as long as possible.  So the A/C unit was not dirty, or so I thought.

I got online and did searches about air conditioner smells/odors and finally hit on one that I knew instantly was my problem.  The website talked about "black mold" that grows deep inside the units and can be a serious health hazard.  Here is just one website from a quick search, and what they have to say about it (Note the reference to the CDC, and the similar risks and symptoms to Covid-19):

Is Black Mold on Air Conditioning Vents Dangerous?

(excerpt)

Health Impact of Black Mold

Most people will have some reaction to prolonged exposure to black mold, but it’s much worse for vulnerable populations such as very young children, the elderly, and those with weakened or compromised immune function. Additionally, certain medical conditions, such as allergies or asthma, can further complicate things. Symptoms of potential black mold exposure include:

• Difficulty breathing
• Irritated eyes, nose and/or throat
• Fatigue
• Recurring headaches
• Rashes
• Chronic cough and/or sneezing
• Trouble concentrating
• Nausea
• Vomiting and/or diarrhea

Well, I called a handyman I use and asked him if he knew about this type of mold and could he clean it.  He did and said I needed to do a deep cleaning, with a special sprayer and cleaning liquid.  This entails him taking all covers off the inside unit, wrapping with plastic sheeting, taping it in place, and draining the liquid and removed mold and hard to get to dust and dirt into a five gallon bucket.  The first time he did it I still could not see any obvious dirt or mold, but what ended up in that bucket was as black as can be.  Once finished, the smell was gone.  Now I have deep cleaning done on schedule every 4-6 months.  I highly recommend it.

So, as relates to the discussion above, I'm sure Covid-19 can indeed grow and fester in the air conditioning systems.  A HEPA filter will help for a while, right after deep cleaning, but nothing will substitute actual deep cleaning.

It's not expensive to get someone to clean the air conditioner for you here in Malaysia.  However, you can also do it yourself using a cleaning kit.  The cleaning kit actually costs more than getting someone to do it for you and the chemicals are only enough to clean a unit two or three times.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Hotone