iran tariffs

once the dust settle's I have my doubts if this whole Iran sanction deal will have any lasting effect on crude supply or price, iran can consume 2 mil barrels / day internally and currently produce around 3.8 so the net result of the tariffs or embargo will be a loss of about 1.8 mil barrels/day and as they are an opec member I have the feeling the rest of the members are salivating at the prospect of getting to replace the lost 1.8 mm b/d with their own crude at 68$, mind you most of the members have not been allowed to pump additional crude since it was in the $40/ barrel and I haven't seen any reports on Russian production lately but I bet they will not give up the title of the worlds #1 crude producer to the US without some sort of fight

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4 minutes ago, cattleman said:

once the dust settle's I have my doubts if this whole Iran sanction deal will have any lasting effect on crude supply or price, iran can consume 2 mil barrels / day internally and currently produce around 3.8 so the net result of the tariffs or embargo will be a loss of about 1.8 mil barrels/day and as they are an opec member I have the feeling the rest of the members are salivating at the prospect of getting to replace the lost 1.8 mm b/d with their own crude at 68$, mind you most of the members have not been allowed to pump additional crude since it was in the $40/ barrel and I haven't seen any reports on Russian production lately but I bet they will not give up the title of the worlds #1 crude producer to the US without some sort of fight

I think with Libya, Nigeria, Angola, and Venezuela all being unable to step up production in the short term, removing about a million bpd off the market could be pretty disrupting. 

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At the end of the day, it doesn't even matter--short- to medium-term, whether from a technical standpoint a renewal of sanctions against Iran will take a bunch of oil out of the supply. What will matter is the perception for oil prices and they'll bid prices up. Even with a renewal of sanctions nothing would happen to the oil for quite some time. It's not an immediate thing by any stretch. So for now, this is about sentiment I think. 

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