The Next Step In The Electric Vehicle Evolution

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

In today's article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Next-Step-In-The-Electric-Vehicle-Evolution.html

the author states that EVs are not "revolutionary" replacements for ICEV, and repeats the assertion that "EVs are an alternative technology whose main advantage is that it does not emit noxious gases".

As an EV driver, I think the author is incorrect. The main advantage is freedom from the gasoline station. I charge at home. I have not been to the gas station in six years. No gas, no oil changes. "No noxious gasses" is a public good, mostly, but it is also a personal benefit: my  garage does not stink.

The author also asserts that the main problems with EVs are range anxiety and charge-time frustration. These are valid for some drivers, some of the time, in some places. Most drivers spend most of their time driving locally and returning home every evening, in easy round-trip range for an EV. I only need fast recharge on long trips, and I don't take many Supercharging stations are being installed at a quick clip to resolve this issue. EV ranges are going up year by year. Between the two, the percentage of drivers who still "need" an ICE is going down fairly rapidly in several areas.

In the early days of ICE cars, gasoline was purchased in gallon containers at the local general store, and when an ICE car broke down (as they did frequently) the driver was derisively told to "get a horse!" ICE cars started off slowly and then picked up dramatically as the infrastructure evolved.  We are on the cusp of the same cycle for EVs.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Growth will be slow but steady , but may take off at some point. Gasoline is cheap. The biggest users of fossil fuels are BIG vehicles, pickups, 18 wheelers, locomotives, ships, etc. 

[markslawson + 1,042]

On 6/25/2020 at 3:38 AM, Dan Clemmensen said:

he author states that EVs are not "revolutionary" replacements for ICEV, and repeats the assertion that "EVs are an alternative technology whose main advantage is that it does not emit noxious gases".

As an EV driver, I think the author is incorrect. The main advantage is freedom from the gasoline station. I charge at home. I have not been to the gas station in six years. No gas, no oil changes. "No noxious gasses" is a public good, mostly, but it is also a personal benefit: my  garage does not stink.

The author is quite correct in his assertions.. although you are entitled to your individual take on the matter. EVs are an alternate technology that some people seem to prefer, and that suits personal lifestyle, such as being able to recharge at home and using the car only for commuting/domestic visits and so on. Sadly none of the advantages you cite are enough to bring EVs out of their niche market sectors. As for the garage not stinking, pardon me what were you doing in there with your old ICE? You didn't turn off the engine when you got into the garage and before closing the door(s)? This sounds like a problem of poor ventilation, or perhaps a very elderly car, rather than anything to do with EVs.

[markslawson + 1,042]

19 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Growth will be slow but steady , but may take off at some point. Gasoline is cheap. The biggest users of fossil fuels are BIG vehicles, pickups, 18 wheelers, locomotives, ships, etc. 

Rather than argue all those other points, I should point out that the major problem is the BIG vehicles. I saw one presentation which stated that just road freight (pickups really count as passenger) used about half of the petrol consumed in the US, I think it was. There's no reason to doubt that figure. But electrifying trucks and such is not possible with present technology. The battery will take up a significant part of the truck's load. We have to wait for all those technology improvements in batteries we are continuously promised.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

You are exactly right about the large vehicles, trucks of all kinds, ships, locomotives, etc. 

I just like to test and probe the realities of electric vehicles. I think electric bikes and scooters are doing very well worldwide. Tesla vehicles are good for those that want them, but are there going to be enough people to buy them and fill in the dream, and when? They are having a small sales slump right now. China may be mandating electric vehicles fueled mainly by coal plants. It is fun to watch the back and forth on what will happen. The course seems to be set by the national leaders in power. They think they are so far above the consumer who pays for the vehicle.  

[specinho + 440]

saw one man electric sheepy bike with cover, similar to this but like a motorbike, on sales. USD 150....