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jose chalhoub

How to measure geopolitical risks in the oil sector

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Many times political and geopolitical risks premiums have been overlooked by the investors, CEO's and the different players and actors in the global energy market. But now we see different elements, political and geopolitical risks that are indeed affecting the prices, beyond the ongoing cut deal between OPEC and non OPEC countries, for example, Venezuela's overcompliance is not a result of a will to comply with the organisation precisely, but a result of a rising political risks and financial risks in the country directly impacting the performarnce of its oil industry. Saudi Arabia is under increasing threats from Iran and the sectarian issue with shiites, regarding the war in Yemen and also in Syria and facing important reform programs led by MbS. Then theres the other worrying issue of the JCPOA of Iran which might be suspended by the Trump administration adding another premium to oil prices. Then Libya and its uncertainties facing an uncertain election and ongoing security and physical risks to its facilities of oil. Then we have the prospect of a leftist coming to power in Mexico, Lopez Obrador, which might give a radical turn to the process of reform of the mexican oil sector with impact to the U.S. and the global energy markets. You name any of the most relevant oil exporters and producers and i dont think there is peace and love in any of them. So how to really measure and involve and attach the element of geopolitical and political risks in the oil and gas and why not the rest of non renewables and renewables industry in the analysis and make it a permanent task for all the players involved and not just wait until these things happen. 

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