Netanyahu in Moscow

So, Bibi helps Trump decide on Iran, he threatens to strike Syria if the Russians sell them S-400 and now he's a guest of honor at the Victory Day parade in Moscow. How much weirder can Middle Eastern politics get, I wonder. 

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I'll go out on a limb here, and state my opinion that the USA and Iran will at least partially normalize relations by the end of this year.  By December 2018.

Not going to publicly go into my reasons for my opinion about the normalization between the two longstanding adversaries.  You can message me privately if you are really interested, but I fully realize my view is a minority opinion.

Please do feel free to resurrect this comment by the end of December 2018 and publicly throw it in back in my face if I'm wrong.  But I'm pretty confident about the time frame - by end of this year (2018) for the USA and Iran to calm down, be less threatening to each other, and start normalizing relations.

For an analogy, I'd like to bring to your attention the recent chill out between North Korea vs. South Korea and USA.  WW III averted (at least for now).

So, I'm waiting to see how KSA, Israel, and the various Middle East factions may react if the Iran vs. USA cold war finally dissipates later this year.

Marina, then Middle East politics may get really weird.

For info, I had a very long talk about this Iran + USA normalization topic with a businessman from Jordan a couple days ago, when I was in UAE.  Surprisingly, he agreed with my view.

Also, I've got LinkedIn connections with numerous Iranian oil officials (NIOC).  Hope they lurk on this thread.

Yes, I'm an American expat, but my view of Oil & Gas and its related geopolitics is global.

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2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I'll go out on a limb here, and state my opinion that the USA and Iran will at least partially normalize relations by the end of this year.  By December 2018.

Yeah yeah, I know, very poor form to quote yourself.  So sue me.  I don't exactly have a lot of peers on this issue, so kinda no choice....

Anyhoo.  This update just came in from The Tylers on ZH:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-09/here-are-countries-buy-irans-oil-and-what-they-may-do-next

" ...With Trump having started the 6 month process of pulling out from the Iranian nuclear deal (or rather as Steven Mnuchin admitted, Trump's true intention is merely renegotiating the existing deal and "entering a new agreement") the biggest concern among traders and analysts is what impact the Trump decision will have on Iran's oil exports."

=====================

Yep, I'm not backing down one inch in my opinion that Iran and the USA will normalize relations by the end of 2018.  Full stop.

Friendly wagers accepted.  Which means non-cash friendly wagers, such as the loser buys lunch.  Cheers y'all.

 

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Weirder is the new black. I can't disagree and it does make sense that all will quiet down. question is: will Riyadh manage to list Aramco before prices start down again or not.

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9 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Weirder is the new black. I can't disagree and it does make sense that all will quiet down. question is: will Riyadh manage to list Aramco before prices start down again or not.

I can't really answer that.  I remain sceptical that the Aramco IPO will actually happen.

 

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Can they afford not to proceed with it, though, eve at the risk of it flopping?

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3 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Can they afford not to proceed with it, though, eve at the risk of it flopping?

The opinion piece I wrote in the link above goes over a few different scenarios for the Aramco IPO.

Yes, Saudi Arabia and MbS need the cash for KSA budget.  But they seem to be going in circles trying to figure out how to actually get an Aramco IPO off the ground, to get the cash. 

Delays, and more delays.  

 

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On 09. 05. 2018. at 6:47 AM, Marina Schwarz said:

So, Bibi helps Trump decide on Iran, he threatens to strike Syria if the Russians sell them S-400 and now he's a guest of honor at the Victory Day parade in Moscow. How much weirder can Middle Eastern politics get, I wonder. 

Next, Bibi will be a guest of honor in Riyadh. haha! 

But re Aramco, they're also scurrying around trying to decide whether listing this huge company on the local exchange isn't going to be too much for the Tadawul--overweight. 

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On 09/05/2018 at 4:12 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

I'll go out on a limb here, and state my opinion that the USA and Iran will at least partially normalize relations by the end of this year.  By December 2018.

Not going to publicly go into my reasons for my opinion about the normalization between the two longstanding adversaries.  You can message me privately if you are really interested, but I fully realize my view is a minority opinion.

Please do feel free to resurrect this comment by the end of December 2018 and publicly throw it in back in my face if I'm wrong.  But I'm pretty confident about the time frame - by end of this year (2018) for the USA and Iran to calm down, be less threatening to each other, and start normalizing relations.

For an analogy, I'd like to bring to your attention the recent chill out between North Korea vs. South Korea and USA.  WW III averted (at least for now).

So, I'm waiting to see how KSA, Israel, and the various Middle East factions may react if the Iran vs. USA cold war finally dissipates later this year.

Marina, then Middle East politics may get really weird.

For info, I had a very long talk about this Iran + USA normalization topic with a businessman from Jordan a couple days ago, when I was in UAE.  Surprisingly, he agreed with my view.

Also, I've got LinkedIn connections with numerous Iranian oil officials (NIOC).  Hope they lurk on this thread.

Yes, I'm an American expat, but my view of Oil & Gas and its related geopolitics is global.

Can't rule it out happening.

But can't see how the pieces will fall in for both walking hand in hand. Care to elaborate? 

 

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Generally speaking, this is always Trump's game, he brings things to a fever pitch just to improve his negotiating leverage. I would guess that's all he's doing with Iran. And it's probably not just about Iran, either. He's not geopolitically savvy, but he is a good negotiator. Geopolitically, things could get out of hand on the Middle East stage because he can't handle this. However, he wrong-foots other actors because they are not used to his tactics, so who knows. That's what makes it all so dangerous. 

But consider this: It may be a multi-pronged negotiation tactic. We still don't know how China and Europe will respond to the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuke deal. China could easily just refuse and keep on buying Iranian oil and boost the Yuan contracts and destroy the petro-dollar. But, there's the whole looming trade war going on with China, so this may all change leverage on two different fields. I think in Trump's mind it's all one big negotiation. 

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