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Biden Seeks $2 Trillion Clean Energy And Infrastructure Spending Boost

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(edited)

Eia today in energy end paragraph: Electricity end-use consumption in April 2020 totaled less than 269 billion kilowatthours (kWh), a 4% decrease from April 2019 and its lowest level since November 2001. Consumption of electricity by the commercial and industrial sectors declined by 11% and 9%, respectively, from levels in April 2019. Residential sector electricity consumption increased from 90 billion kWh in April 2019 to 97 billion kWh in April 2020, an 8% increase. Natural gas-fired power plants provided the largest share of electricity generation in April 2020; coal’s share of electricity generation (15%) was lower than natural gas (39%) and nuclear (22%).

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44556

Edited by Rob Kramer
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(edited)

8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Solar and wind spend even less on fuel than nuclear. Many more billions went into nuclear power development than have gone into solar and wind.and as they tried to scale nuclear they discovered that the costs went up not down. It didn't scale. If nuclear energy has such magical and valuable qualities then why isn't the nuclear industry using them to make money? Instead all they seem to be able to do is bribe the gov't for handouts. 

Federal agents arrested the Ohio house speaker on charges of taking bribes and funneling millions to boost passage of a controversial bill.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/feds-charge-firstenergy-nuclear-bailout-bill-of-being-supported-by-a-criminal-enterprise

Idk, ask France why their electricity is cheaper than their neighbors who followed your philosophy. Ask Eastern Europe why they're going for nuclear power plants instead of the others. 

I understand that it has issues in the United States. My point is that if the money had been funneled into nuclear, and if the correct policy changes were made, we'd be able to seize the best possible opportunity. 

Edited by KeyboardWarrior
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11 hours ago, NickW said:

Today we have been informed our monthly direct debit will drop from £139 a month to £92 (it will drop a lot further as other efficiency measures kick in for a full year) so the approach is clearly working. 

Is this a normal size bill where you are? Is there a gas bill? I'm at 100$ Cad / Month with my small house @ice box 23.5c (but that's not accurate because in the winter its blazing hot when it reads 23.5c) I turn off my pilot and down the gas water tank and used 3.50$ in gas? But the delivery and customer charge and carbon tax makes the bill 50$ so even tho gas is cheaper I'm thinking updating to all electric and removing my flu chimney (10% more efficient right there) I could then make my gas water tank into storage for solar hot water and could save the final 3$ of gas equivalent heat (in summer) .

740kwh @ 12.5c 89$ latest bill. 143kwh "on peak" 

Edited by Rob Kramer
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12 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Nuclear plants spend far less on fuel than gas plants do. It's safe to assume $300 - $400 million vs $60 million per annum. Decreasing capital expenditure is the area of focus, and if there was enough push behind the industry we'd have what we need. Unfortunately the billions went to improving systems that are insufficient even at their theoretical maximums. 

Nuclear energy also has powerful capabilities for producing chemicals or fuels. Thermal processes for the creation of these materials will use a greater percentage of a reactor's MWth rating than a power generating system. 

Not for me unless they can make it work on a cost benefit basis while disposing of their radioactive waste and old plants safely, for thousands of years. All they are doing in the USA is running up energy costs for customers. 

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6 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Is this a normal size bill where you are? Is there a gas bill? I'm at 100$ Cad / Month with my small house @ice box 23.5c (but that's not accurate because in the winter its blazing hot when it reads 23.5c) I turn off my pilot and down the gas water tank and used 3.50$ in gas? But the delivery and customer charge and carbon tax makes the bill 50$ so even tho gas is cheaper I'm thinking updating to all electric and removing my flu chimney (10% more efficient right there) I could then make my gas water tank into storage for solar hot water and could save the final 3$ of gas equivalent heat (in summer) .

740kwh @ 12.5c 89$ latest bill. 143kwh "on peak" 

5 Bedroom house (UK size not US) in SE England. Built in the 1980's. We pay 2.65p for gas (this has fallen in price) and 15.02p for electric

We bought the house last September and the house was very poorly insulated. The £139 a month direct debit reflects this as the utility estimate the fwd DD on the previous 12 months usage. 50mm of insulation in the loft when we moved in . Now there is 450mm. Since then also put in LED/ CFL lighting, solar water heating, 1.5KW of PV and a new condensing boiler. 

In Feb I put in a 240 litre twin coil hot water cylinder. In April I installed a 48 tube (58mm) solar water heating system. I also put in a diverter that sends an surplus solar electric to the immersion. So yes there is gas - we just don't use any over the summer as the solar thermal and PV takes care of all our hot water needs. Since May we have used about 80 KWH of gas and that was mostly to test the new boiler. 

Is your boiler old?  I havent seen pilot lights on boilers in Europe since the early 90's - they are all spark ignition - infact if you take the boiler apart it has a mini spark plug.  When we lived in OZ our new gas water heater had a pilot but that was Australia😁

 

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7 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Idk, ask France why their electricity is cheaper than their neighbors who followed your philosophy. Ask Eastern Europe why they're going for nuclear power plants instead of the others. 

I understand that it has issues in the United States. My point is that if the money had been funneled into nuclear, and if the correct policy changes were made, we'd be able to seize the best possible opportunity. 

I'd say with France it was economy of scale - build dozens of similar reactors reduces costs and builds a skills base. 

Mind this isn't evident with the EPR new build.

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4 hours ago, NickW said:

5 Bedroom house (UK size not US) in SE England. Built in the 1980's. We pay 2.65p for gas (this has fallen in price) and 15.02p for electric

We bought the house last September and the house was very poorly insulated. The £139 a month direct debit reflects this as the utility estimate the fwd DD on the previous 12 months usage. 50mm of insulation in the loft when we moved in . Now there is 450mm. Since then also put in LED/ CFL lighting, solar water heating, 1.5KW of PV and a new condensing boiler. 

In Feb I put in a 240 litre twin coil hot water cylinder. In April I installed a 48 tube (58mm) solar water heating system. I also put in a diverter that sends an surplus solar electric to the immersion. So yes there is gas - we just don't use any over the summer as the solar thermal and PV takes care of all our hot water needs. Since May we have used about 80 KWH of gas and that was mostly to test the new boiler. 

Is your boiler old?  I havent seen pilot lights on boilers in Europe since the early 90's - they are all spark ignition - infact if you take the boiler apart it has a mini spark plug.  When we lived in OZ our new gas water heater had a pilot but that was Australia😁

 

Cool stuff! I cant tell if your saying that most homes are older there and have bills like that or it was just your place before update . My house is 3 bedroom 2 floors. Small for Canada closer to a cottage size really. The furnace + ac is early 90s the water tank is 2018. Gas is so cheap here there no point spending and extra 400$ to go high efficiency plus i dont have to update the install . My furnace room has a window and the spark ignition water tanks have a electric fan and flap so they side vent out through the wall but the code says 3ft from a window + it would stick out 6in on my driveway along the wall. So between the price difference,  install being a pain and the furnace still being the old style ( using a chimney ) it wasn't worth it. Got this one installed for 420$total after tax. (My house has ok insulation but not great and theres a 24/7 bathroom fan pumping conditioned air into attic at 50 cfm... kinda anti efficient there lol) 

So if you dont use gas do you still have a gas bill? Ours via enbridge is 22$ customer charge / delivery / gas / carbon tax =total + tax. So even no gas is a 30$ ish bill . Vs cold winter furnace pumping and cold water for the tank to heat and 120$ mabey 150$ is it's really cold month. Pilot on the furnace only adds like 3$ per month in gas charges. For the water tank it doesnt change much because it keeps the water at temp so as long as you dont do back to back showers the big flame never comes on. 

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33 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Cool stuff! I cant tell if your saying that most homes are older there and have bills like that or it was just your place before update . My house is 3 bedroom 2 floors. Small for Canada closer to a cottage size really. The furnace + ac is early 90s the water tank is 2018. Gas is so cheap here there no point spending and extra 400$ to go high efficiency plus i dont have to update the install . My furnace room has a window and the spark ignition water tanks have a electric fan and flap so they side vent out through the wall but the code says 3ft from a window + it would stick out 6in on my driveway along the wall. So between the price difference,  install being a pain and the furnace still being the old style ( using a chimney ) it wasn't worth it. Got this one installed for 420$total after tax. (My house has ok insulation but not great and theres a 24/7 bathroom fan pumping conditioned air into attic at 50 cfm... kinda anti efficient there lol) 

So if you dont use gas do you still have a gas bill? Ours via enbridge is 22$ customer charge / delivery / gas / carbon tax =total + tax. So even no gas is a 30$ ish bill . Vs cold winter furnace pumping and cold water for the tank to heat and 120$ mabey 150$ is it's really cold month. Pilot on the furnace only adds like 3$ per month in gas charges. For the water tank it doesnt change much because it keeps the water at temp so as long as you dont do back to back showers the big flame never comes on. 

I don't think you can even sell boilers with pilots any more in the UK as they wont meet energy efficiency standards. Makes sense really as the UK is now a major importer of Gas. Energy efficiency means less £££ for the Russians and Qataris (the UKS marginal suppliers of gas) 

I'm on a dual supply. Even if we don't use any gas there is a standing charge of 16.5p a day for gas and 20p for electric (roughly £10 a month for gas and elec) which is the norm for most UK supply arrangements. Obviously we need gas for the winter months for both heating and hot water (the solar still provides some heat even in the depths of winter). 

Sounds like in Canada you pay a low kwh rate but get screwed on the standing charges? 

Later in the year I'm getting the lower storey walls cavity wall insulated. We don't have much driving rain here and its one of the driest parts of the Uk (600mm a year) so I'm satisfied it won't cause any bridging issues. The house is a strange design. The upper floor is 9 inch thermablock with a shiplap timber cladding (Essex black shiplap boarding style ) 

The cladding is near the end of its life so next year  I'm going to strip off and install 40/50mm of woodfibre insulation board (I don't like the polyurethane type - major fire hazard) with a breather membrane over it and then reboard. Help with both winter heating bills and keep the upper floor a bit cooler in summer. The black board doesn't help but its a style in keeping with local planning. 

Beyond that unless I put more solar on the roof my energy projects come to a practical end so we move onto other stuff*. More solar will only happen when battery prices fall to make it worthwhile as I have no additional need for summer hot water. Infact right now the emergency heat dump has opened up on the solar to spill off some heat as I don't want to overheat the tank (scaling issues and a 4 year old child in the house) .

* Should get an allotment (community garden)  allocation next year (200-250m2) of land so the plan is to get that planted out. At home Mrs W wants to keep Hens. She is a Chemical  Engineer at a major oil seed / grain processor and can basically get all the oil seed mash leftovers from the Lab. Layers feed is dirt cheap anyway and the allotment leftovers and household scraps will do well for feed supplementation and variety. Also going to invest in a wormery as they are a very efficient way of turning leaves and other scraps into high quality protein (for the hens😁)

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1 hour ago, Rob Kramer said:

theres a 24/7 bathroom fan pumping conditioned air into attic at 50 cfm... kinda anti efficient there lol)

I love this back and forth with you and @NickW. Always curious how everybody else does things.

I'm wondering if i understand you correctly on the quoted part? Does your bathroom fan just vent into the attic void rather than outside? That's totally against code here in the states. Not sure why it's constant on either. I installed digital timers in my bathroom fans for about $20 each. Had mechanical timer switches before that, but they were getting old and make that loud ratchety noise.

A lot of houses where I live are so well insulated that companies are doing a thriving business installing radon removal fans. Those are what I call "anti efficient" since they exchange inside and outside air about once an hour. 

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9 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I love this back and forth with you and @NickW. Always curious how everybody else does things.

I'm wondering if i understand you correctly on the quoted part? Does your bathroom fan just vent into the attic void rather than outside? That's totally against code here in the states. Not sure why it's constant on either. I installed digital timers in my bathroom fans for about $20 each. Had mechanical timer switches before that, but they were getting old and make that loud ratchety noise.

A lot of houses where I live are so well insulated that companies are doing a thriving business installing radon removal fans. Those are what I call "anti efficient" since they exchange inside and outside air about once an hour. 

Thats one of the beauties of the internet - free flow of information between individuals, ideally in a constructive manner. 

On the Radon issue if the penetration into the house is that bad I'd look at a barrier solution - membrane sealing the floors. That radon will be in the air you breath for a while before the extractor fan gets to remove it. 

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12 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Idk, ask France why their electricity is cheaper than their neighbors who followed your philosophy. Ask Eastern Europe why they're going for nuclear power plants instead of the others. 

I understand that it has issues in the United States. My point is that if the money had been funneled into nuclear, and if the correct policy changes were made, we'd be able to seize the best possible opportunity. 

Interestingly France is decreasing their reliance on nuclear and moving toward renewables because of increasing nuclear cost

in 2014 the official auditor, Cour des Comptes, said the cost of nuclear power production had increased 20% between 2010 and 2013.https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx

in 2015 the government voted to cut the share of nuclear in the nation’s energy supply to 50% by 2025 (a date later pushed out to 2035).

 

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Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

Interestingly France is decreasing their reliance on nuclear and moving toward renewables because of increasing nuclear cost

in 2014 the official auditor, Cour des Comptes, said the cost of nuclear power production had increased 20% between 2010 and 2013.https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx

in 2015 the government voted to cut the share of nuclear in the nation’s energy supply to 50% by 2025 (a date later pushed out to 2035).

 

Why did the cost rise? I'm surprised they would do that. 

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11 minutes ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Why did the cost rise? I'm surprised they would do that. 

My guess is that it was due to safety upgrades after fukushima, deteriorating market sentiment and increased development costs

Their new EPR design reactors are absolute money pits: 

In mid-2004 the board of EdF decided in principle to build the first demonstration unit of an expected series of Areva EPRs. This decision was confirmed by the EdF board in May 2006, after public debate, when it approved construction of a new 1650 MWe class EPR unit at Flamanville, Normandy, alongside two existing 1300 MWe units. The decision was seen as "an essential step in renewing EDF's nuclear generation mix".

The overnight capital cost or construction cost was expected to be €3.3 billion in 2005 Euros (€4 billion in 2018 Euros), and power from it EUR 4.6 c/kWh. Series production costs were projected at about 20% less. EDF then submitted a construction licence application. The Flamanville 3 unit is to be 4500 MWt, 1750 MWe gross (at sea temperature 14.7°C) and 1630 MWe net.

....

At the end of 2008 the overnight cost estimate (without financing costs) was updated by 21% to €4 billion in 2008 Euros (€2434/kW), and electricity cost to be 5.4 cents/kWh. These costs were confirmed in mid 2009, when EdF had spent nearly €2 billion. In July 2010 EdF revised the overnight cost to about €5 billion and the grid connection to early 2014 – two years behind schedule. In July 2011 EdF again revised the completion time to 2016 due to re-evaluation of civil engineering works and to take into account interruptions during the first half of the year. The cost was then put at €6 billion. In December 2012 EdF raised the cost estimate to €8.5 billion including financing, and said that completion was still expected in 2016. As the reactor pressure vessel was installed in January 2014 Areva confirmed that first power was expected in 2016, four years behind the original schedule. In September 2015 the completion date was moved to late 2018, with the cost increasing to €10.5 billion. In July 2017 EdF said that 98% of the civil structure was completed and 60% of the electro-mechanical work, and that the reactor would be connected to the grid in May 2019. In July 2018 EDF announced that quality discrepancies had been found in welds in the secondary coolant system, and that this would delay commissioning by almost a year, and increase the project cost to €10.9 billion. In March 2020 a government decree put off full commissioning until April 2024. The cost estimate from EDF then was €12.3 billion, with start-up in 2023.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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22 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

I love this back and forth with you and @NickW. Always curious how everybody else does things.

I'm wondering if i understand you correctly on the quoted part? Does your bathroom fan just vent into the attic void rather than outside? That's totally against code here in the states. Not sure why it's constant on either. I installed digital timers in my bathroom fans for about $20 each. Had mechanical timer switches before that, but they were getting old and make that loud ratchety noise.

A lot of houses where I live are so well insulated that companies are doing a thriving business installing radon removal fans. Those are what I call "anti efficient" since they exchange inside and outside air about once an hour. 

Ya so its totally against code here to lmao. Its 5W? And upstairs bathroom so just toilet and sink . Also the bathroom sits above the furnace room downstairs so in summer it has the driest coolest air and in winter it has the hottest air.  I think with adequate roof vents it's not doing squat to warm or cool the attic. So humility from temp shouldn't happen . Also if my furnace (that's older) cracks a heat exchanger the flu gas would be removed from house as the shortest most vertical vent with the most pressure is in the bathroom.  Its unique.  It was supposed to be wired to bathroom light switch and ended up on fridge plug wires lol. But again it's made for 24/7 run and very low watts and a saftey for flu gasses in winter. 

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23 hours ago, NickW said:

I don't think you can even sell boilers with pilots any more in the UK as they wont meet energy efficiency standards. Makes sense really as the UK is now a major importer of Gas. Energy efficiency means less £££ for the Russians and Qataris (the UKS marginal suppliers of gas) 

I'm on a dual supply. Even if we don't use any gas there is a standing charge of 16.5p a day for gas and 20p for electric (roughly £10 a month for gas and elec) which is the norm for most UK supply arrangements. Obviously we need gas for the winter months for both heating and hot water (the solar still provides some heat even in the depths of winter). 

Sounds like in Canada you pay a low kwh rate but get screwed on the standing charges? 

Later in the year I'm getting the lower storey walls cavity wall insulated. We don't have much driving rain here and its one of the driest parts of the Uk (600mm a year) so I'm satisfied it won't cause any bridging issues. The house is a strange design. The upper floor is 9 inch thermablock with a shiplap timber cladding (Essex black shiplap boarding style ) 

The cladding is near the end of its life so next year  I'm going to strip off and install 40/50mm of woodfibre insulation board (I don't like the polyurethane type - major fire hazard) with a breather membrane over it and then reboard. Help with both winter heating bills and keep the upper floor a bit cooler in summer. The black board doesn't help but its a style in keeping with local planning. 

Beyond that unless I put more solar on the roof my energy projects come to a practical end so we move onto other stuff*. More solar will only happen when battery prices fall to make it worthwhile as I have no additional need for summer hot water. Infact right now the emergency heat dump has opened up on the solar to spill off some heat as I don't want to overheat the tank (scaling issues and a 4 year old child in the house) .

* Should get an allotment (community garden)  allocation next year (200-250m2) of land so the plan is to get that planted out. At home Mrs W wants to keep Hens. She is a Chemical  Engineer at a major oil seed / grain processor and can basically get all the oil seed mash leftovers from the Lab. Layers feed is dirt cheap anyway and the allotment leftovers and household scraps will do well for feed supplementation and variety. Also going to invest in a wormery as they are a very efficient way of turning leaves and other scraps into high quality protein (for the hens😁)

The boiler makes sense. For UK (here in canada we like flairing lol) . That's an awesome deal the dual provider thing your exactly correct the only cost saving you can get is going all electric or all gas here to avoid the double billing for non service. And ya that black shouldn't be a problem with insulation but without it's a heater ... I keep wanting to change my aluminum sand color siding to white . Or get insulated siding or under layer and do a nice blue. I got light grey shingles so they already massively drop heat on the roof and match most color siding. In the morning if I sit in my backyard i can see the heat waves on my neighbors roof and mine wont have any . And my other neighbor has chickens ... clip their wings ! They flew over his fence and ran away . It's nice talking to you. If I go all electric (after this winter) I'll be very interested to see if a black garden hose with circulation pump can keep temps high in the gas water tank that we remove.  I'll insulate the core. Mabey have a outdoor shower /rinse at the corner of the garage. Warm up the kids after the sprinkler( to cool down lol) + water the grass. 

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3 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Ya so its totally against code here to lmao. Its 5W? And upstairs bathroom so just toilet and sink . Also the bathroom sits above the furnace room downstairs so in summer it has the driest coolest air and in winter it has the hottest air.  I think with adequate roof vents it's not doing squat to warm or cool the attic. So humility from temp shouldn't happen . Also if my furnace (that's older) cracks a heat exchanger the flu gas would be removed from house as the shortest most vertical vent with the most pressure is in the bathroom.  Its unique.  It was supposed to be wired to bathroom light switch and ended up on fridge plug wires lol. But again it's made for 24/7 run and very low watts and a saftey for flu gasses in winter. 

Who cares if the fan only uses 5 watts if it shunts away 10,000 watts of heating or AC you paid for? Interesting design someone came up with, but yeah codes are there for a reason. Personally I wouldn't trust any system that requires a fan to compensate for bad venting from a furnace. Easy enough to run a better vent inside the existing one, or hell, sell the house while you can and get a better one… 😎

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On 7/30/2020 at 9:01 AM, NickW said:

Sounds like in Canada you pay a low kwh rate but get screwed on the standing charges?

Pretty much.  I have a property sitting vacant and the electric bill is about $20 CND a month.  Only usage is a refrigerator that is never opened.

 

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On 7/30/2020 at 9:01 AM, NickW said:

 

 

* Should get an allotment (community garden)  allocation next year (200-250m2) of land so the plan is to get that planted out. At home Mrs W wants to keep Hens. She is a Chemical  Engineer at a major oil seed / grain processor and can basically get all the oil seed mash leftovers from the Lab. Layers feed is dirt cheap anyway and the allotment leftovers and household scraps will do well for feed supplementation and variety. Also going to invest in a wormery as they are a very efficient way of turning leaves and other scraps into high quality protein (for the hens😁)

You can grow a lot of food in that size of garden.  I had a garden at work for a few years (forestry researchers were not using all the experimental plots) and it was great.  I loved going outside and watering my plants and munching on some fresh veg, nice break from the office.

I want to make a worm farm too, if you use an old bathtub you can collect worm fertilizer solution from the drain. Fishing is popular around here and I was thinking about trying to sell bait.

I know some people with hens, pretty much only good for eggs, the meat is crap.  My uncle makes soup with his, my friend feeds the meat to her dog.

Next you need fruit trees and a beehive! haha.

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2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Who cares if the fan only uses 5 watts if it shunts away 10,000 watts of heating or AC you paid for? Interesting design someone came up with, but yeah codes are there for a reason. Personally I wouldn't trust any system that requires a fan to compensate for bad venting from a furnace. Easy enough to run a better vent inside the existing one, or hell, sell the house while you can and get a better one… 😎

So the problem is that with a low population in Canada and high immigration is the large number of rich immigrants are buying in toronto so houses that were 100k 20 years ago are now 1.2M $ so they move to the next city and they move out ward and so on and so forth . So my area has doubled in 3 years in price... nice!!! (NOT!) the 6% real estate charge is the same so cost to move has doubled. Plus I have to move to the next city over because the gaps of 20-30k are now 50-100k. So to get better my ultra low morguage would be much larger. So either I move to a dumpy area or pay a 50k+ more. Or stay and have no fees a low morguage and be in a halfway not dumpy but not fancy . OR move away like 8hrs north and get a house at half price pay cash and live morguage free but be away from my family. And grandma loves her grand kids . And my brother is 2 doors over on the same street.

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8 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

You can grow a lot of food in that size of garden.  I had a garden at work for a few years (forestry researchers were not using all the experimental plots) and it was great.  I loved going outside and watering my plants and munching on some fresh veg, nice break from the office.

I want to make a worm farm too, if you use an old bathtub you can collect worm fertilizer solution from the drain. Fishing is popular around here and I was thinking about trying to sell bait.

I know some people with hens, pretty much only good for eggs, the meat is crap.  My uncle makes soup with his, my friend feeds the meat to her dog.

Next you need fruit trees and a beehive! haha.

I put fruit trees in the garden this year. We have already had 12 peaches of the tree and another 10 to go assuming the birds don't get them. Also put in a plum, cherry, apple tree and two grape vines - yield so far 1 apple and 3 plums. Year 1 so not surprised.

Not sure the neighbours would appreciate beehives although I have a bumble bee nest under the shed. 

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On 7/22/2020 at 11:32 PM, Rob Kramer said:

Your not hearing what I'm saying . I'm saying if coal is 40k right now and solar plus wind are 40k ... then if coal is shut off today you need another 10 years of solar and wind installed . That's during a time with people working from home malls and offices closed and minimum staff and 0.5% of electric cars and gas heaters.  Now gas heat is being banned in areas. Electric cars are being pushed . How do you suppose coal dies electric cars rise AND natural gas stalls. No batteries and renewables are nowhere near as cheap as gas. Even if it doubles to 3.20$ or whatever . Please tell me you live off grid and run AC all summer heat on blast all winter via electricity and a electric car powered from home if renewables are cheaper. Sorry but it doesnt add up. Natural gas fast ramp up to demand when renewables fail is what's allowed renewables to grow . Nat gas is the cheap battery.

@Rob Kramer natural gas may be the cheap battery for now, not so in 12-18 months time. Tesla has already doubled life expectancy of their batteries, and now Panasonic is talking about increasing their energy density by 20%. That alone gets lithium batteries close to parity with gas at $3.20, but medium-term (say 5 years), Tesla will have paid off all their giga-factory setup costs (about $8 billion apiece), and in 10 years + time, there will be huge number of used EV batteries ready to be re-purposed for grid storage. The economics is simply unbeatable by any FF. I do agree, however, that Nuclear, Hydro, and Geothermal should also get more funding as mentioned by another commentator on first page of this blog.

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On 7/29/2020 at 2:17 AM, ronwagn said:

None of your options would compare favorably to natural gas plants. Natural gas is the true green option while also being the least expensive, most abundant fuel. It has proven this by allowing America to make the most progress in reducing emissions of any large country in the world. Meanwhile China and India have increased coal use. 

Half correct Ron. It is true that China and India have increased their use of coal, but they have also increased their use of renewables plus Hydro plus Nuclear. Natural gas too! Their CO2 emissions are likely to peak by 2023, then gradually start to fall.

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On 7/28/2020 at 12:47 PM, ronwagn said:

That is one of many great reasons we need to reelect President Trump. The Green New Deal with the cooperation of Biden would scrap fossil fuels and rely on far more expensive "renewables" which CANNOT do the job needed. At least not in this century.

@ronwagn, Jay is a trained economist with a good grasp of the technical details of energy systems. I am trained in Physics, Environmental Science, Business and Economics. Ignore the facts we present to you at ur peril :) I agree with much of what you say regarding natural gas, but please don't be surprised in 3-5 years time when the headline on this website becomes "Have we reached peak natural gas demand"?

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On 7/29/2020 at 3:01 AM, ronwagn said:

Pure speculation? Do you have any example of a track record to prove your alleged point?

It is not speculation Ron. Here in Australia, the large battery in Adelaide paid for itself in just 3 years. Interest rates were higher then, and the batteries themselves were not quite as cheap as they are now. I am not saying that batteries for homes are viable yet, but in Australia, the wholesale electricity price is allowed to fluctuate between minus $1000 and plus $14,000. Such price extremes occur quite regularly.

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1 minute ago, Wombat said:

It is not speculation Ron. Here in Australia, the large battery in Adelaide paid for itself in just 3 years. Interest rates were higher then, and the batteries themselves were not quite as cheap as they are now. I am not saying that batteries for homes are viable yet, but in Australia, the wholesale electricity price is allowed to fluctuate between minus $1000 and plus $14,000. Such price extremes occur quite regularly.

I just got done refuting all of this and showing what energy really runs Australia. I am not a fan, I just hope that Aussies get a choice and are not forced into high prices when they have an abundance of natural gas. 

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