Douglas Buckland

The Truth about Chinese and Indian Engineering

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39 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

We routinely hear about the lack of American engineers and engineering students versus the Chinese and Indians. Read this:
https://www.machinedesign.com/community/editorial-comment/article/21829922/the-myth-of-chinese-and-indian-engineers

Right.  I found this youtube video dated one year ago that claims Chinese Engineering surpasses America.  Anyway, China builds a lot of high speed rail (while America has none), skyscrapers (more than America now), bridges, etc. So much that they use more concrete in 3 years than America in the entire 20th century.  

America is very good in financial engineering, but isn't that the best type of engineering?

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(edited)

Just off the top of my head, didn’t the US put a man on the moon....in 1969? Didn’t the just launch another probe to Mars?

Does India have any nuclear ships (discount any bought from Russia)? Does India have any aircraft carriers NOT bought from Russia (that carrier also has a ski jump to launch aircraft, similar to the Chinese carriers, as they cannot build to the tolerances required for a steam catapult). 
 

Anybody who can’t cannot utilize steel properly will default to concrete.

Did you look at the requirements to qualify as an ‘engineer’ in the US as opposed to India and China?

High speed rail is not a necessity in the US.....similar to it not being a necessity in Malaysia.

Okay, I can see where this is headed so I will bow out early. Chinese and Indian engineers are the best in the world, bar none!

Edited by Douglas Buckland
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13 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Just off the top of my head, didn’t the US put a man on the moon....in 1969? Didn’t the just launch another probe to Mars?

Does India have any nuclear ships (discount any bought from Russia)? Does India have any aircraft carriers NOT bought from Russia (that carrier also has a ski jump to launch aircraft, similar to the Chinese carriers, as they cannot build to the tolerances required for a steam catapult). 
 

Anybody who can’t cannot utilize steel properly will default to concrete.

Did you look at the requirements to qualify as an ‘engineer’ in the US as opposed to India and China?

High speed rail is not a necessity in the US.....similar to it not being a necessity in Malaysia.

Okay, I can see where this is headed so I will bow out early. Chinese and Indian engineers are the best in the world, bar none!

He meant "train" engineers, Douglas!  They definitely have more train engineers.

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32 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Just off the top of my head, didn’t the US put a man on the moon....in 1969? Didn’t the just launch another probe to Mars?

Does India have any nuclear ships (discount any bought from Russia)? Does India have any aircraft carriers NOT bought from Russia (that carrier also has a ski jump to launch aircraft, similar to the Chinese carriers, as they cannot build to the tolerances required for a steam catapult). 
 

Anybody who can’t cannot utilize steel properly will default to concrete.

Did you look at the requirements to qualify as an ‘engineer’ in the US as opposed to India and China?

High speed rail is not a necessity in the US.....similar to it not being a necessity in Malaysia.

Okay, I can see where this is headed so I will bow out early. Chinese and Indian engineers are the best in the world, bar none!

 

18 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

He meant "train" engineers, Douglas!  They definitely have more train engineers.

OK, then watch this. This is about electronic engineering.

 

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@Hotone
 

Perhaps we are utilizing the wrong metric here...

Perhaps you can look up, historically, not in the present political climate, how many Indian and Chinese engineering students applied to study for undergraduate and graduate engineering degrees in the US, as opposed to how many American engineering students applied to study engineering in China or India.

This metric would allow us to see the relative value placed on the three national engineering education systems.

If it turns out that the US was training an inordinate amount of Indian and Chinese engineers (making the assumption that they did not overstay their visa or sought employment in the US and returned home), would these students actually be Indian or Chinese engineers, or would they more accurately be termed American trained Indian and Chinese engineers?🤔

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China and India are about price and number of consumers.  Whatever relatively small number of "qualified" engineers, designers, idea people they produce are very much needed to support home grown projects and services.  Then take out your 2% ( :) ) to run Fortune 500 companies, along with the other ones that are recruited for jobs in other countries, and they don't end up with much.

 

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20 minutes ago, Hotone said:

You should watch the part about robotics and not just the line dancing 😉

I watched until I was bored....never got to the robotics. 

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1 minute ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I watched until I was bored....never got to the robotics. 

That's the part you are supposed to watch 

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36 minutes ago, Hotone said:

That's the part you are supposed to watch 

How would I know that with all the dancing nonsense as a lead in?

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10 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

We routinely hear about the lack of American engineers and engineering students versus the Chinese and Indians. Read this:
https://www.machinedesign.com/community/editorial-comment/article/21829922/the-myth-of-chinese-and-indian-engineers

The training is not up to par. There is a core of terrific engineering talent that does the work, but it is not supported by a talented engineering pool. Their technology people are paid about the same scale as internationally, but the students can't afford to go to universities that employ these to teach and train. So they go to various cram schools and then can't actually do the job. There was a US China chamber of commerce study that found that the multinationals in China have a problem finding workable talent in tech and engineering as a degreed pro would only have a 10% chance of being capable of doing the job they were  trained for.

Things got progressively worse as China became more integrated and the brain drain took out some of the best talent. And international corps took many of the rest for their design projects, so that leaves the engineers and techies that got their jobs 20-30 years ago and that had built all that high speed rail, giant dams, skyscrapers galore. By 2030 they will all be retired. The next generation didn't get the same level of training, does not have the same work ethic (see the term princeling) and are most likely working for govt..

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On 8/8/2020 at 7:18 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

Did you look at the requirements to qualify as an ‘engineer’ in the US as opposed to India and China?

Look around any North American campus... they attend the best schools.

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On 8/8/2020 at 6:52 AM, Hotone said:

 

OK, then watch this. This is about electronic engineering.

 

Bloomberg is a CCP propaganda organ

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They are imitators, not innovators

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On 8/8/2020 at 4:03 PM, 0R0 said:

The training is not up to par. There is a core of terrific engineering talent that does the work, but it is not supported by a talented engineering pool. Their technology people are paid about the same scale as internationally, but the students can't afford to go to universities that employ these to teach and train. So they go to various cram schools and then can't actually do the job. There was a US China chamber of commerce study that found that the multinationals in China have a problem finding workable talent in tech and engineering as a degreed pro would only have a 10% chance of being capable of doing the job they were  trained for.

Things got progressively worse as China became more integrated and the brain drain took out some of the best talent. And international corps took many of the rest for their design projects, so that leaves the engineers and techies that got their jobs 20-30 years ago and that had built all that high speed rail, giant dams, skyscrapers galore. By 2030 they will all be retired. The next generation didn't get the same level of training, does not have the same work ethic (see the term princeling) and are most likely working for govt..

Yes and too many mistake quantity for quality. CCP apologists love to cite the number of engineering degrees in China vs US without considering this.

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2 hours ago, shadowkin said:

Bloomberg is a CCP propaganda organ

He is much more than that to the CCP, and they are much more to him personally as well.  One example out of many:

Michael Bloomberg’s China record

(Excerpt)

Ben Richardson, editor for Bloomberg’s Asia coverage, later told NPR that Bloomberg News leadership had told him stories about families of the Chinese Politburo were off-limits.

Bloomberg LP doesn’t make money in China only by selling terminals. Through its massive Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, Bloomberg LP is helping finance Chinese companies by sending billions of U.S. investor dollars into the Chinese bond market.

This year, the index began a 20-month plan to support 364 Chinese firms by directing an estimated $150 billion into their bond offerings, including 159 controlled directly by the Chinese government. Bloomberg, along with other Wall Street firms, is effectively supporting the Chinese government’s efforts to resist the U.S. government’s economic pressure, while exposing American investors to increased risk.

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On 8/10/2020 at 9:25 AM, Enthalpic said:

Look around any North American campus... they attend the best schools.

So the Indian and Chinese engineers trained in China and India are questionable, but those who “...attend the best schools.” in North America are functional?

This goes back to my point where you must differentiate between Indian and Chinese engineers and North American trained Indian and Chinese engineers. A subtle, but distinct, difference.

I take my motorcycle exclusively to a Chinese family owned shop here in KL. The lead mechanic is Malaysian Chinese...who is a certified Master Mechanic, trained by BMW in Germany.

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(edited)

We all know about how important of semi conductor development in top industries. 

From Xi's plan in 2020, China should be able to  produce 40% of its market and 70% in 2025

Currently:

1.png

We can see the growth from 2014 to 2019 to see how hard it is.

It is not the Quantity only, it is about quality as well. Currently China technology can only produce 19nm IC or bellow, which lags behind the world 8 years. 50% of chip market in China imported from the US, with much complicated level. High end chips that Huawei needed is 7nm.

ASIC  (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, roughly cpu,memory and controller in the same Chip) . 

According to US Semiconductor Industry Association, the GAP between demand and ability to supply is getting bigger currently can only satisfy 9% of the current demand. 

China needs to import High end CPU and SoC from oversea, mostly TSMC.

Im Memory DRAM, the first company in China is Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) planned to test DRAM  for the first time at the end of 2019. Currently they don't have any product on the market. The budget is 1b USD a year with few thoundsands employees, CXMT will hard to catch others. More over current tech in China is 19nm while you cannot compete if you don't have the tech to produce less than 10nm.

 Above is about CPU,SoC(system on a chip)  for smart phone and home computers/laptops.

In specialized semi-conductor industry, China hasn't any company to make Signal Processor, Server CPU, Microcontroller Unit, Special Logic IC. These are much needed in Artificial Intelligence. Half of these consists of 50% of demand in China and provided by Corps with ten thousands of talents and with decades of experiences. Nursing talents is the key here.

If the cannot have access to these, they will lags behind for few decades.

Surprisingly Iran and Russia have better tech in these high end chips than China but not too far ahead. 

This will hit 5G as well. In 5G technologies, many top tech of  SoC and CPU China cannot produce and have to import. I guess that's why UK eliminated Huawei out of their system (Huawei cannot do that with the sanction).

The sanction in Huawei in  May 2020 hit China at its weakest point. China is in this bad situation because of the 5 belows:

1 China didn't expect  Trump will go this far. Kind of sacrifice  one to kill ten. It hurts US economy in short term for the long term and China was using short term bait to gain long term.

2 China was over confident in the attraction of 1.4 bill people market and its relationship on the world, WTO.

3 China over estimated their ability to catch up in semi-conductor industry. It thought it could do the same thing it did with Auto industry to have the top technologies.

4 China over estimated their ability to develop talents and experience. It took you 15 years experience in the industry to be able to design chips, and these top talents are heavily sought world wide, with top salaries. You cannot mass produce these talents.

5 Xi could have catch up with the world in next 20 years if the condition was kept like 10 years ago. Not with the US but much nearer.

China future depends on:

1 Trump is under tremendous pressure from the Dem,Global Corps and EU to stop destroying their markets. But every one month in the sanction is the more damage. This is a strategy of the Trump "idiot" using China's Covid to counter China. It will be hard to have a sanction on China's Chip supply without Covid19.

2 Elections results. It is unlikely Biden will continue this sanction.

3 China Abilities. Currently the top Chip companies in the world can produce 5nm , currently China is at 19nm (8 years). How long does it take to have this and where are other after that time.

A few examples in the US allies to compare for the high end semiconductor competition:

-Japan used to be head to head with the US with transistor, IC to ASIC, high end CPU with  top companies make US admired. But now they are lagging behind even they have unlimited access to US tech.

-Korea can beat US in memory, but US leads in high end CPU.

-EU used to be in the same starting point with US in 1970s but now still behind in Chip production.

To catch up to the US, China has to catch up with all of the above first. Unless US stops progressing and fall behind these.

 

 

 

Edited by SUZNV
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@SUZNV - your wall of text need a serious fact checking:

https://www.notebookcheck.net/New-Chinese-CPU-maker-Phytium-to-release-7-nm-and-5nm-server-CPUs-along-with-14-nm-processors-for-desktop-and-embedded-markets.482800.0.html

New Chinese CPU maker Phytium to release 7 nm and 5nm server CPUs, along with 14 nm processors for desktop and embedded markets

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(edited)

4 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

@SUZNV - your wall of text need a serious fact checking:

https://www.notebookcheck.net/New-Chinese-CPU-maker-Phytium-to-release-7-nm-and-5nm-server-CPUs-along-with-14-nm-processors-for-desktop-and-embedded-markets.482800.0.html

New Chinese CPU maker Phytium to release 7 nm and 5nm server CPUs, along with 14 nm processors for desktop and embedded markets

Fact check simply means believe in marketing propaganda on mainstream which are very shallow and have political or stocks agenda. The truths will only deeper and require lots of digging as no one do anything for free.

In your own article:

 Nevertheless, Phytium hopes to tap TSMC’s 7 nm and 5 nm nodes for upcoming server-grade CPUs in the next few years. By the end of 2021, Phytium is planning to launch the Tengyun S6000 CPU that is expected to integrate up to 128 5 nm cores, doubling the performance of the current S2500 model.

FYI, TSMC is the Taiwanese Chip Company that stopped their sale to Huawei the top chip. So how does that dispute my fact checking? Maybe you should get used to wall of text instead of just the title for fact checking.

It is much easier if you have the design pattern & foundries then you can produce even 5nm chip. But currently China can use current tech they have access to (including the right to use other chip design and foundry patterns and existing equipments) is 19nm. If they want to start from scratch with Chinese foundries & pattern designs& equipments, they can barely archive 45nm. US just have a very limited ban at the moment with HuaWei and some others.

 

 

Edited by SUZNV

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Yoshi is a Chinese parrot. Talks alot, says nothing. Responding to his incessant blather leads to beating your head against the wall.

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On 8/18/2020 at 4:43 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Yoshi is a Chinese parrot. Talks alot, says nothing. Responding to his incessant blather leads to beating your head against the wall.

Butthurt, but still lacking arguments? Must be one of the Oilprice's Trumpist old farts. 

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(edited)

On 8/14/2020 at 8:44 PM, SUZNV said:

3 China Abilities. Currently the top Chip companies in the world can produce 5nm , currently China is at 19nm (8 years). How long does it take to have this and where are other after that time.

I chllenged this, obviously, Chinese has a desktop based on 7nm CPU, not 19nm, as you incorrectly state:

https://www.androidauthority.com/huawei-pc-1135257/

That's the meticulous, small work, you know? Fact checking pruning the big, bombastic statements that will show just plain false in the end. 

Does this chip challenge the competition? No, not yet, but the resilience of Huawei and the ability to counter the embargo by kickstarting and accelerating in-house development is significant. 

In general, I would not worry about the quality of Chinese engineering. They were able to transform a backwards, agricultural country to industrial supplier for the whole world, they scaled the production up like no country before them, perhaps, so I think they are just fine. I would not also worry about their research, besides having hugely motivated own young generation, they can always do what America did during the 20th century - they can buy the brains for themselves, because due to the trade surplus, they have coffers full of dollars that are losing their status as world's reserve currency. So they buy anything that can be bought for those dollars - energy reserves, tech companies, talents, patents, anything that has strategic value. 

Edited by Yoshiro Kamamura

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