Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

You claim to be an economist, take away the market distorting signals and get back to me with your "winning" argument. When the government has its thumb on the scales, that's not a fair market

Regulation and gov't incentives structure and advance the market. There is a reason that the biggest economies are highly regulated. Low regulation markets are what they have in Somalia.   I'd love to get rid of the fossil fuel subsidies.

Edited August 21, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Renewables are at the inflection point and growth over the next decade is going to hockey stick! Welcome to exponential economics.

 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Regulation and gov't incentives structure and advance the market. There is a reason that the biggest economies are highly regulated. Low regulation markets are what they have in Somalia.   I'd love to get rid of the fossil fuel subsidies.

Still smoking the kool aid? Nothing you said is supported by reality.  

Which communist school did you attend again? 

Admittedly our economies work better without warlords fighting, but I'm guessing you skipped class when they talked about this:

 "The driving principle behind laissez-faire, a French term that translates as "leave alone" (literally, "let you do"), is that the less the government is involved in the economy, the better off business will be—and by extension, society as a whole. Laissez-faire economics are a key part of free market capitalism"

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Still smoking the kool aid? Nothing you said is supported by reality.  

Which communist school did you attend again? 

Admittedly our economies work better without warlords fighting, but I'm guessing you skipped class when they talked about this:

 "The driving principle behind laissez-faire, a French term that translates as "leave alone" (literally, "let you do"), is that the less the government is involved in the economy, the better off business will be—and by extension, society as a whole. Laissez-faire economics are a key part of free market capitalism"

Thanks for making my point. Fighting warlords are what you get in a completely deregulated market. The only way to make them go away is to introduce regulation.

Extreme laissez faire economics, also known as Anarcho-Capitalism, is a failed ideology. Although it is very seductive at the micro economic scale it utterly fails to scale. If you try and scale it up you get warlords. Exponential economics is the economics of scaling, a much superior economic model that is taking over the world. 

The most efficient model, born out by reality, is roughly 50% regulation and 50% free market. The market is a tool to use to reach an objective, it is not an all knowing god.

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50 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

 

Which communist school did you attend again? 

 

My thesis advisor in grad school was David D. Friedman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_D._Friedman, often referred to as the head of the Utilitarian school of Anarcho Capitalism. I spent years trying to make his models scale, they don't. 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Bob D + 562]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Renewables are at the inflection point and growth over the next decade is going to hockey stick! Welcome to exponential economics.

 

Is it not amazing that the Greenies, warming alarmists, gov't funded projects produce "Hockey Sticks". 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Bob D said:

Is it not amazing that the Greenies, warming alarmists, gov't funded projects produce "Hockey Sticks". 

 

Yes, massive exponential growth. You guys simply don't have a clue. 

[Bob D + 562]

18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

That is such an easy problem to solve. We pay the people with EVs to sell excess power back to the grid when there is a need. 

And then what?  Drive the Suburban because the EV battery is dead.

 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Bob D said:

And then what?  Drive the Suburban because the EV battery is dead.

 

 

You won't be driving the ICE suburban because it won't have any gas as all the gas stations will have gone out of business.

[Bob D + 562]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yes, massive exponential growth. You guys simply don't have a clue. 

Of course it has massive exponential growth potential.  EV's have 3% of the market.  Batteries have 0% of the market.  And the gov't provides monetary incentives (my tax dollars) to make it happen.  

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Thanks for making my point. Fighting warlords are what you get in a completely deregulated market. The only way to make them go away is to introduce regulation.

Extreme laissez faire economics, also known as Anarcho-Capitalism, is a failed ideology. Although it is very seductive at the micro economic scale it utterly fails to scale. If you try and scale it up you get warlords. Exponential economics is the economics of scaling, a much superior economic model that is taking over the world. 

The most efficient model, born out by reality, is roughly 50% regulation and 50% free market. The market is a tool to use to reach an objective, it is not an all knowing god.

We have fighting warlords now, but they go by the names of Xi, Putin and Kim. Same game, bigger stage. Or did you believe those "local" warlords allowed laissez-faire economies to thrive under their stewardship? Anything but, any poor fool trying to operate a business under warlords gets to pay "protection" constantly. The exact opposite of your contention. 

I can't compete with your imagination. I've never promoted "extreme laissez-faire economics" whatever that is.  The knock against laissez-faire has always been "unfairness" as if "fairness" is a God given right. Sadly it didn't make it into the Commandments. Some people are taller, smarter, better looking and have more hair than others who are fat, short, dumb and bald. The better looking ones almost invariably end up with more wealth. That's just unfair. 

Too bad you weren't a better student under Friedman. You could have learned something

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Just now, Bob D said:

Of course it has massive exponential growth potential.  EV's have 3% of the market.  Batteries have 0% of the market.  And the gov't provides monetary incentives (my tax dollars) to make it happen.  

And the gov't provides incentives to the fossil fuel industry to keep them in business. Opening up ANWR is a nice subsidy and attempt by the govt to push fossil fuel development. 

And when EV's and batteries reach the top of the curve, fossil fuels will be extinct.

[Bob D + 562]

5 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And when EV's and batteries reach the top of the curve, fossil fuels will be extinct.

So will you.  And me.  

Have a nice weekend

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Bob D

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

We have fighting warlords now, but they go by the names of Xi, Putin and Kim. Same game, bigger stage. Or did you believe those "local" warlords allowed laissez-faire economies to thrive under their stewardship? Anything but, any poor fool trying to operate a business under warlords gets to pay "protection" constantly. The exact opposite of your contention. 

I can't compete with your imagination. I've never promoted "extreme laissez-faire economics" whatever that is.  The knock against laissez-faire has always been "unfairness" as if "fairness" is a God given right. Sadly it didn't make it into the Commandments. Some people are taller, smarter, better looking and have more hair than others who are fat, short, dumb and bald. The better looking ones almost invariably end up with more wealth. That's just unfair. 

Too bad you weren't a better student under Friedman. You could have learned something

HaHa, I was top of the class, I just decided to test it instead of following the dogma.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

16 minutes ago, Bob D said:

So will you.  And me.  

Have a nice weekend

 

Sorry to hear you are going to have such a short life. By 2030 all new cars will have a plug and the installed base of ICE will be gone by 2050. 

[Bob D + 562]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sorry to hear you are going to have such a short life. By 2030 all new cars will have a plug and the installed base of ICE will be gone by 2050. 

Jay

The forecast is for EV to command 10% of the market over the next decade.  That's 2030.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So the greenies are now crony capitalists? Make up your mind.

Of course greenies are crony capitalists. Otherwise California would not have made the foolish mistake of not providing enough natural gas plants. Wind and solar investors support politicians that support them.

 https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yes, massive exponential growth. You guys simply don't have a clue. 

We know corruption when we see it. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/19/2020 at 12:23 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Still no numbers. Natural gas will be back over $3 in a couple months.

Good, it needs to make a profit. That is still a historically very low price and beats the hell out of wind and solar. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/19/2020 at 4:34 PM, NickW said:

How does the cost of sunlight compare to a kwh of gas. 

Gas is cheaper than than all the costs of solar over the lifespan of the equipment. Just look at what the consumer has to pay for the electricity.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

[ronwagn + 6,290]

What does Texas rely on for electricity production?  

Twice as much electricity in Texas comes from natural gas than renewables. 

Coal generation is second, but could and should be replaced by natural gas and possibly wind if backed up by natural gas. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Bob D said:

Jay

The forecast is for EV to command 10% of the market over the next decade.  That's 2030.  

EV's are already almost at 10% of the new car market today in Europe and California and growing exponentially.  By 2030 the total installed base of EV will be about 10%. In each subsequent year, without any new ICE being produced, the installed base will decrease by about 5%.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

What does Texas rely on for electricity production?  

Twice as much electricity in Texas comes from natural gas than renewables. 

Coal generation is second, but could and should be replaced by natural gas and possibly wind if backed up by natural gas. 

Not for long

While utility-scale solar development has been less compared to wind development in the ERCOT region, it is beginning to gain traction. Today there is nearly 1,500 MW of installed utility-scale solar capacity in ERCOT, out of nearly 80,000 MW of installed capacity. As of December 2018, more than 40,000 MW of utility-scale solar capacity was under study in the ERCOT region. This is slightly higher than the amount of wind capacity under study during the same time period. While it is unlikely all of these projects will get built, the recent uptick in solar interconnection requests may be due to declining technology costs and significant solar opportunities in West Texas. Based on the latest information from resource owners, an additional 4,300 MW of the more than 40,000 MW under study have signed interconnection agreements and may be in-service by the end of 2020. http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/lists/164134/Solar_One_Pager_FINAL.pdf

and it will be backed up by batteries.

http://www.ercot.com/content/wcm/key_documents_lists/194823/ERCOT_Overview_of_Existing_and_Planned_Batteries_12-04-19.pptx

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So the greenies are now crony capitalists? Make up your mind.

Your 50/50 private/government split makes you a fascist. You know the government would call the shots. Thanks for being honest. Some economist you are.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, ronwagn said:

Your 50/50 private/government split makes you a fascist. You know the government would call the shots. Thanks for being honest. Some economist you are.

I'm a poor economist because I am honest?