Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[Rob Kramer + 696]

30 minutes ago, NickW said:

I just stuck 1400W of solar on my roof (DIY) plus grid tie inverters and an electronic diverter to the hot water immersion (no subsidies involved) and the annual rate of return for me is 15- 17%. 

Solar panels on a $ / KW of capacity are very now cheap. 

However comparing solar panels to OCGT (and similar) plant is an apples and oranges comparison. 

I like that your real about it. You did it at your pace on your dime for your savings. Got good mature technology that works for what you do. You wont hear me complain about that . 

[Boat + 1,325]

I am in favor of any technology that can produce electricity with less pollution. Costs and the reliability of the grid will always be a moving target as the transition happens. If a state has problems, that should be a reflection of poor decision makers, not the products.

[Wombat + 1,028]

8 minutes ago, Boat said:

I am in favor of any technology that can produce electricity with less pollution. Costs and the reliability of the grid will always be a moving target as the transition happens. If a state has problems, that should be a reflection of poor decision makers, not the products.

Totally agree. I remember the Californians were bragging that their new battery would "replace" four OCGT's. Just silly, dunno why they not just close one or two, and keep 2-3 as backup, as they seem to have just figured out the hard way. If they are relatively old, it doesn't really matter if they get used half as often, because gas turbines require far fewer staff than coal-fired power stations and the capital has already been amortised. It is the short-term thinking that is the biggest problem when it comes to renewables and batteries. Utilities cannot get their heads around the fact that (like nuclear), the up-front cost is high but the life-time cost is very low.

[Boat + 1,325]

Even though batteries, solar and wind have been around for decades they continue to enjoy incremental improvements. I prefer a discussion on how much investment in renewables is smart knowing a much better widget will be available in a few years. To much investment to fast can lead poor decisions. A new wind farm in 5 years may obsolete an old one that is successful now. This isn’t just FF vrs renewables. This is more about will my investment be viable in 15 years.

[Bob D + 562]

All these problems with electric vehicles at 3%.  What happens at 10% which I believe is the 10 year forecast.

[Wombat + 1,028]

4 minutes ago, Bob D said:

All these problems with electric vehicles at 3%.  What happens at 10% which I believe is the 10 year forecast.

Good question. I think H2 vehicles will start to take off at that point?

[Boat + 1,325]

34 minutes ago, Bob D said:

All these problems with electric vehicles at 3%.  What happens at 10% which I believe is the 10 year forecast.

Your exactly right. Electricity use will continue to grow. Nat gas, solar and wind are in the driver 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

15 hours ago, NickW said:

I like the microturbines / mini CHP units but they are best suited for cold climates with winter peak demands driven by heating rather than when the AC is screaming out for power and a large supply of waste heat has little use. 

You actually need heat for the refrigeration cycle to work. The Freon had to boil before it can condense. Maybe I'll get around to posting a graphic. There was only one good scene in the movie Mosquito Coast with Harrison Ford, who decided the natives needed ice and the Rube Goldberg machine he built to produce it. Ran on burning wood. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Found This article on California power woes and why's

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Wombat said:

Ah, I see why you are a bit skeptical of batteries then

Skeptical of batteries?  No, everybody loves batteries (Cut the cord!).  In aviation alone, if we had better batteries, we could reduce or even eliminate some of the huge expense of ground support equipment.

I am skeptical that there will be a watershed event with battery technology in the Tesla "Battery Day" announcement.

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

57 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Skeptical of batteries?  No, everybody loves batteries (Cut the cord!).  In aviation alone, if we had better batteries, we could reduce or even eliminate some of the huge expense of ground support equipment.

I am skeptical that there will be a watershed event with battery technology in the Tesla "Battery Day" announcement.

 

He is likely to be announcing the achievement of $100kwh batteries. The industry in general is scheduled to reach that level in Q4 2021, and Tesla is a year ahead on the cost curve.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

He is likely to be announcing the achievement of $100kwh batteries. The industry in general is scheduled to reach that level in Q4 2021, and Tesla is a year ahead on the cost curve.

Yes, I am aware.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

3 hours ago, Bob D said:

All these problems with electric vehicles at 3%.  What happens at 10% which I believe is the 10 year forecast.

That is such an easy problem to solve. We pay the people with EVs to sell excess power back to the grid when there is a need. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

30 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Yes, I am aware.

I'd call that a watershed moment. Good bye ICE! By 2024 Tesla will be at $50kwh. 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[NickW + 2,714]

8 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

You actually need heat for the refrigeration cycle to work. The Freon had to boil before it can condense. Maybe I'll get around to posting a graphic. There was only one good scene in the movie Mosquito Coast with Harrison Ford, who decided the natives needed ice and the Rube Goldberg machine he built to produce it. Ran on burning wood. 

I know you can use the heat for refrigeration purposes (gas fired camping fridge the most common example) but the costs and practicalities of converting equipment over to this system? 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I'd call that a watershed moment. Good bye ICE! By 2024 Tesla will be at $50kwh. 

You would.  You're almost there!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/20/2020 at 1:50 AM, Wombat said:

Ron, you know I am a bit of a greenie but CCGT produces 80% less CO2 than coal, so I don't have a problem with it if it used in areas without good renewable sources. However, countries or just states within countries that have good wind or solar resources are plain crazy right now to not go 100% renewable for their electricity and incentivise EV's. The time has come Ron. The battery revolution is here, now. September 15 is Tesla's "Battery Day". Rememder that date, 9/15/2000, it will change everything you know about global energy systems and go down as the day that the West realise we no longer need oil from the Middle East! Think about it Ron, soak up some rays from the Sun, and sing after me: "I'm free, to do what I want, any ol time...."!

Some areas will go that route. If they prove it to my satisfaction, I will climb aboard the Tesla train. Show me the end cost to the consumer!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/19/2020 at 6:33 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

If computing were held to that development process you would be reading this on your abacus, or not.  What you are describing is called the "waterfall method" It has long been proven to be a very slow, very expensive, failed method. Silicon Valley hasn't done waterfall in decades.

 

 

People like me paid high prices VOLUNTARILY to get all those very low powered computers as they developed. There was a need proven by the MARKET. Not by crony capitalists seeking government subsidies and backroom deals. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/20/2020 at 1:26 AM, Wombat said:

I think the idea of being responsible died when it no longer assured a roof over one's head?

You can have a great roof over your head and the government can tax you out from under it. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

19 hours ago, Boat said:

I am in favor of any technology that can produce electricity with less pollution. Costs and the reliability of the grid will always be a moving target as the transition happens. If a state has problems, that should be a reflection of poor decision makers, not the products.

Who decides what is causing less pollution? Natural gas has been most effective in reducing pollution for America. CO2 pollution is not a proven fact IMHO. Government rulers?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

You would.  You're almost there!

$100 puts electric vehicles at price parity with ice so yeah that is a watershed moment because every day afterward the price of ev is that much less than ice. Pretty much the definition of a watershed moment.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

40 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

People like me paid high prices VOLUNTARILY to get all those very low powered computers as they developed. There was a need proven by the MARKET. Not by crony capitalists seeking government subsidies and backroom deals. 

So the greenies are now crony capitalists? Make up your mind.

Edited August 21, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So the greenies are now crony capitalists? Make up your mind.

I'd characterize them as useful idiots of crony capitalists. Just like Stalin famously had his useful idiots. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I'd characterize them as useful idiots of crony capitalists. Just like Stalin famously had his useful idiots. 

It is so much fun watching you guys squirm. We have a superior economic model and are rapidly taking over the market. Simple.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is so much fun watching you guys squirm. We have a superior economic model and are rapidly taking over the market. Simple.

You claim to be an economist, take away the market distorting signals and get back to me with your "winning" argument. When the government has its thumb on the scales, that's not a fair market