Wind, Solar & Gas in California. How's that working out for you?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Humor aside, computing power did not cause my calculator to stop working from time to time while it was being developed.  My telephone kept working just fine and all media kept chugging along.  As time went by and the benefits of computing became proven we were able to switch over, and what a phenomenal success the entire affair has turned out to be.

Similarly, nobody is arguing that wind and solar are not worth exploring, developing and using in any way possible; it is the mismanagement of its implementation that makes people pay extra and even suffer that is in question.  That together with the mismanagement is a higher cost that is passed on to the consumer without their consent that is in question.  That a proven energy source was displaced and allowed or forced to be removed BEFORE the wind and solar, and battery, development was ready to take over flawlessly that is in question.

Get it together, prove it works under all possible scenarios, prove the costs are comparable or even less and bring it on.  Until then, keep working in the background and bring it to maturity without pain and additional expense to the consumer.  Those are considered minimums in any other endeavor and they should not be left out in this regards just because THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END!  THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END!.

If computing were held to that development process you would be reading this on your abacus, or not.  What you are describing is called the "waterfall method" It has long been proven to be a very slow, very expensive, failed method. Silicon Valley hasn't done waterfall in decades.

 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

I'll put it a different way. You usually can't solve the scaling problem you run into at say 8% market share until you reach 8% market share and run into the problem. Scaling problems are extremely difficult to identify in the lab and impossibly expensive to fix without having 8% market share worth of cash flow to fix. Intel didn't wait until the current minimum possible architecture size was achieved in a lab. They started where they could and solved problems where they arose. I was the Moore's Law expert at the Semiconductor Industry Association back in the nineties, (yes, introduced to Gordon Moore as his Law's expert) and Intel most certainly made a lot of blunders along the way that tend to be forgotten today. Everyone said, since the 70's, they would never keep Moore's Law going but they did until just the past few years and now it appears others are taking over the lead. It is very much about the investment and development model that has driven big tech, it is called Exponential Economics, the economics of Silicon Valley. Tesla, Amazon, Intel all invest and develop according to Exponential Economics theory.

[Wombat + 1,028]

13 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Sounds like ontario. The idea of being responsible is dead.

I think the idea of being responsible died when it no longer assured a roof over one's head?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

13 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Even at 3.50 -4$ if the byproduct of heating my home is its electricity and hot water I'm laughing.  My pilot lit gas 40G water tank ( the most inefficient type) was 5.50$ in gas charges for the month I have 2 kids I bathe 2 times a day plus my shower and my wife's hygiene plus clothes and dishes.... if the byproduct is my electricity we'd be laughing.  At 4.60 that's 11$ in gas . Even make the hydro the fuel use and heat the byproduct 22$?!.... get real man.

Since it is such an awesome solution you must have already installed it in your house. Please tell us more about your setup?

[Wombat + 1,028]

12 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Areas with cold winters rely more on natural gas for home heating. Other areas get it in the form of electricity just as electric vehicles will. Natural gas is not expendable. Renewables cannot and will not replace it.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/10/25/natural-gas-and-renewables-will-rule-americas-electricity-future/#3c8f68d31e36

 

Ron, you know I am a bit of a greenie but CCGT produces 80% less CO2 than coal, so I don't have a problem with it if it used in areas without good renewable sources. However, countries or just states within countries that have good wind or solar resources are plain crazy right now to not go 100% renewable for their electricity and incentivise EV's. The time has come Ron. The battery revolution is here, now. September 15 is Tesla's "Battery Day". Rememder that date, 9/15/2000, it will change everything you know about global energy systems and go down as the day that the West realise we no longer need oil from the Middle East! Think about it Ron, soak up some rays from the Sun, and sing after me: "I'm free, to do what I want, any ol time...."!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I'll put it a different way. You usually can't solve the scaling problem you run into at say 8% market share until you reach 8% market share and run into the problem. Scaling problems are extremely difficult to identify in the lab and impossibly expensive to fix without having 8% market share worth of cash flow to fix. Intel didn't wait until the current minimum possible architecture size was achieved in a lab. They started where they could and solved problems where they arose. I was the Moore's Law expert at the Semiconductor Industry Association back in the nineties, (yes, introduced to Gordon Moore as his Law's expert) and Intel most certainly made a lot of blunders along the way that tend to be forgotten today. Everyone said, since the 70's, they would never keep Moore's Law going but they did until just the past few years and now it appears others are taking over the lead. It is very much about the investment and development model that has driven big tech, it is called Exponential Economics, the economics of Silicon Valley. Tesla, Amazon, Intel all invest and develop according to Exponential Economics theory.

I'm impressed.

Except that Intel's problems did not cost the consumer of electricity more and did not result in blackouts.

[NickW + 2,714]

14 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

If it wasn't a waste of time I would.  I posted the article on the 170B$ expense Ontario is incurring to go green vs a made up cost of using coal at 4.4$B that was made up of 3.4B$ of imaginary health care Bill's that were after the fact found to be from vehicle emissions.  My house has a gas furnace & hot water tank and electric everything else (a micro turbine could do all that and be more than 33% efficient exhaust heat not turning the motor can heat a water tank or be put through a heat exchanger in winter and be as efficient as a furnace 90%). The gas line is from the 70's I've never seen any gas line work outside of new lines for additional housing just built. If your really asking the cheapest fuel and most reliable system imagine a mcf of gasfrom BC to Ontario at 2.30$cad on lines from the 60's . The poles and power line costs alone could pay the costs for micro turbines(not to mention the furnaces and water tanks and electricity turbines we pay for though hydro one).  Half the utility maintenance... ontario has hydro one trucks everywhere tons of workers driving gas cars to work ect ect ect. The answer is there if you want to obsesses on the savings go nuts . BTW I had my hydro out this week also. They came repaired it . An hour later the 3 transformers were on fire and burned the pole and power was out a day. I'd post the video I have of the transformers on fire then exploding but i dont know how. Just saying I've NEVER had my gas go out . 

I like the microturbines / mini CHP units but they are best suited for cold climates with winter peak demands driven by heating rather than when the AC is screaming out for power and a large supply of waste heat has little use. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

50 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Ron, you know I am a bit of a greenie but CCGT produces 80% less CO2 than coal, so I don't have a problem with it if it used in areas without good renewable sources. However, countries or just states within countries that have good wind or solar resources are plain crazy right now to not go 100% renewable for their electricity and incentivise EV's. The time has come Ron. The battery revolution is here, now. September 15 is Tesla's "Battery Day". Rememder that date, 9/15/2000, it will change everything you know about global energy systems and go down as the day that the West realise we no longer need oil from the Middle East! Think about it Ron, soak up some rays from the Sun, and sing after me: "I'm free, to do what I want, any ol time...."!

Sorry to butt in.

September 22nd, or Battery Day as it is being hyped, does not apparently mean that any new watershed event battery tech is going to be announced.  FWIW.

Tesla (TSLA) surges as investors get in before Battery Day announcements

(excerpt)

I don’t think that’s impossible, but if it does happen, it is going to be years down the road. Late this decade at the earliest in my opinion.

As we previously reported, the real announcement at Battery Day is Tesla’s Roadrunner project which aims to solve battery supply constraints and enable Tesla to launch its many upcoming vehicle programs that are going to be massive battery consumers – namely Tesla Semi and Tesla Cybertruck.

Tesla is going to lay out how it plans to not be completely reliant on third-party manufacturers anymore. The automaker is still going to need them for the foreseeable future, but it is going to show a path to supporting itself with its own battery production.

Furthermore, we also expect some battery performance improvements being announced at the event, but I think that will actually be second to the scale and cost of batteries that Tesla plans to present at the event.

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

54 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Sorry to butt in.

September 22nd, or Battery Day as it is being hyped, does not apparently mean that any new watershed event battery tech is going to be announced.  FWIW.

Tesla (TSLA) surges as investors get in before Battery Day announcements

(excerpt)

I don’t think that’s impossible, but if it does happen, it is going to be years down the road. Late this decade at the earliest in my opinion.

As we previously reported, the real announcement at Battery Day is Tesla’s Roadrunner project which aims to solve battery supply constraints and enable Tesla to launch its many upcoming vehicle programs that are going to be massive battery consumers – namely Tesla Semi and Tesla Cybertruck.

Tesla is going to lay out how it plans to not be completely reliant on third-party manufacturers anymore. The automaker is still going to need them for the foreseeable future, but it is going to show a path to supporting itself with its own battery production.

Furthermore, we also expect some battery performance improvements being announced at the event, but I think that will actually be second to the scale and cost of batteries that Tesla plans to present at the event.

 

Interesting. If they can improve battery performance by 20%, and lifespan by 50%, plus reduce cost by 30%, then that still changes the game completely. Not just for EV's, but for grid storage as well. I would even go so far as to say that would probably make batteries suitable for long-term grid storage?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

31 minutes ago, Wombat said:

Interesting. If they can improve battery performance by 20%, and lifespan by 50%, plus reduce cost by 30%, then that still changes the game completely. Not just for EV's, but for grid storage as well. I would even go so far as to say that would probably make batteries suitable for long-term grid storage?

The whole world is waiting for battery tech to have its watershed event.  In aviation the Boeing Dreamliner hosts some of the latest available for our applications, and let's just say we're living with the limitations after billions of $$ spent to stretch it this far (and keeping our fingers crossed that another fire doesn't happen on board another aircraft 🤞).

Billions and Billions of $$ have been and continue to be poured into this research and development and, mark my words, when that day comes it will indeed change the world.  Until then, it's a lot of spin with a whole heapin helping of "we'll get there soon".

[Wombat + 1,028]

35 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

The whole world is waiting for battery tech to have its watershed event.  In aviation the Boeing Dreamliner hosts some of the latest available for our applications, and let's just say we're living with the limitations after billions of $$ spent to stretch it this far (and keeping our fingers crossed that another fire doesn't happen on board another aircraft 🤞).

Billions and Billions of $$ have been and continue to be poured into this research and development and, mark my words, when that day comes it will indeed change the world.  Until then, it's a lot of spin with a whole heapin helping of "we'll get there soon".

I think we need to wait and see what Tesla has to say, but I would be interested in knowing a little more about the Dreamliner and the limitations? My father is a retired airline pilot, and I used to read his Flight magazine each week. All I know about the Dreamliner is that the engines are huge but very efficient, and that it has large windows and better air-conditioning? Fire was in the engine or internal?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Wouldn’t the economics of the micro-turbines depend on the number required, decentralized maintenance, and spares required to be kept on hand?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Wombat said:

I think we need to wait and see what Tesla has to say, but I would be interested in knowing a little more about the Dreamliner and the limitations? My father is a retired airline pilot, and I used to read his Flight magazine each week. All I know about the Dreamliner is that the engines are huge but very efficient, and that it has large windows and better air-conditioning? Fire was in the engine or internal?

The batteries.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

17 hours ago, NickW said:

How does the cost of sunlight compare to a kwh of gas. 

About 4x more expensive should we quote California and Ontario again?

[0R0 + 6,251]

On 8/18/2020 at 10:35 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa, Here in California we make our own reality. That's why we accomplish such amazing things. But you don't make things happen without having a few things break on the way. We just fix them and charge forward.

If you consider expensive and unreliable electricity to be an accomplishment then perhaps we should discount your estimates and predictions accordingly.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Since it is such an awesome solution you must have already installed it in your house. Please tell us more about your setup?

I already did. I run the CHEAPEST set up PILOT lit NAT GAS furnace and water tank with natural chimney (no fan). Tell me yours ? Tesla car and home batter on 100% solar OR IS THAT TOO EXPENSIVE? lol that was fun. 

.... I knew you didnt read a word I literally said it on multiple chats and once in this one for reference to cheap fuel and once as a joke to imply the new hi tech (furnace) doesnt pay for itself with the less fuel used . As with solar. 

Edited August 20, 2020 by Rob Kramer
Last paragraph

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

10 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

If you consider expensive and unreliable electricity to be an accomplishment then perhaps we should discount your estimates and predictions accordingly.

I had a light breeze against me the whole way, both going and coming, and the voyage has been performed wholly by the power of the steam engine. I overtook many sloops and schooners, beating to the windward, and parted with them as if they had been at anchor. The power of propelling boats by steam is now fully proved. The morning I left New York, there were not perhaps thirty persons in the city who believed that the boat would ever move one mile an hour, or be of the least utility, and while we were putting off from the wharf, which was crowded with spectators, I heard a number of sarcastic remarks. This is the way in which ignorant men compliment what they call philosophers and projectors. Having employed much time, money and zeal in accomplishing this work, it gives me, as it will you, great pleasure to see it fully answer my expectations. - Robert Fulton

A lot of steam engines exploded in those early days killing a lot of people but on we progressed...

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I had a light breeze against me the whole way, both going and coming, and the voyage has been performed wholly by the power of the steam engine. I overtook many sloops and schooners, beating to the windward, and parted with them as if they had been at anchor. The power of propelling boats by steam is now fully proved. The morning I left New York, there were not perhaps thirty persons in the city who believed that the boat would ever move one mile an hour, or be of the least utility, and while we were putting off from the wharf, which was crowded with spectators, I heard a number of sarcastic remarks. This is the way in which ignorant men compliment what they call philosophers and projectors. Having employed much time, money and zeal in accomplishing this work, it gives me, as it will you, great pleasure to see it fully answer my expectations. - Robert Fulton

A lot of steam engines exploded in those early days killing a lot of people but on we progressed...

There you go again.  

"Having employed much time, money and zeal in accomplishing this work, it gives me, as it will you, great pleasure to see it fully answer my expectations."

But every consumer in New York did not have to suffer through Mr. Fulton's hardships, did they?  Nor did they have to pay for his errors or see their electricity disrupted, I presume?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

There you go again.  

"Having employed much time, money and zeal in accomplishing this work, it gives me, as it will you, great pleasure to see it fully answer my expectations."

But every consumer in New York did not have to suffer through Mr. Fulton's hardships, did they?  Nor did they have to pay for his errors or see their electricity disrupted, I presume?

Very few people suffered blackouts this past weekend and only for short periods. I recommend reading up on how many people were killed and maimed in steamboat explosions. Our high price of electricity is mainly for grid liability, our renewables energy sources are cost effective.

[NickW + 2,714]

48 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

About 4x more expensive should we quote California and Ontario again?

The point was that comparing the actual conversion efficiency of solar against gas is apples and oranges because the light itself is free. The whole but solar is only 16% efficient (at conversion of sunlight to electricity) is irrelevant - the critical factor is how much a KW of panels costs and how long they last. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Cost effectiveness of CA Renewable Program, wildly successful-

The overall contracted commitment in renewables by retail sellers in California has increased over time, which has contributed to the cost competitiveness of technologies, particularly solar and wind. Figure 7 illustrates the average annual contract prices by technology category for procuring RPS eligible projects with capacities greater than 3 MW in cents per kilowatt-hour (¢/kWh) for the three IOUs. Data Source: CPUC 2019 Annual Report on Costs and Cost Savings for the RPS Program (Padilla Report)66 CPUC 2019 RPS Annual Report (November 2019) In real dollars, between 2007 and 2018 RPS contract prices have dropped an average of 11.5 percent per year. The downward trend in contract prices can be attributed to falling prices for wind and solar technologies, which together make up 83.2 percent of the total renewable generating capacity in California. 67  In 2018, the trend of falling renewables contract costs continued and reached a historic low average price of 3.81 ¢/kWh for RPS-eligible energy contracts.

Edited August 20, 2020 by Jay McKinsey

[JoMack + 549]

Huge batteries, huge solar farms, huge wind farms and what do you have without crude oil and natural gas?  I guess I'm missing the point of  of the super charge to use a massive amount of land mass and batteries the size of a house to electrify, heat and cool to replace fossil fuels.  California where you would think after years of claiming a high percentage of renewable usage, it imports 1/6th of its electricity from other states from coal-fired power plants,1/2 of the states utility-scale electricity generation is fueled by natural gas.  However, several interstate natural gas pipelines enter the state from Arizona, Nevada and Oregon and bring natural gas into California from the Southwest and from the Rocky Mountain and western Canada.   50% of California's crude comes from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador and Columbia.  But, the state has one of the largest refinery capacities in the United States.  But, they've banned offshore production, and have added unrealistic climate standards, so rolling blackouts is a reasonable outcome with the highest electricity costs in the nation.  You have to look at California as an example of a state trying to be something it is not and that is anything but a place run by solar, wind and batteries.  4 years ago, the Aliso Canyon natural gas facility in LA County had a leak and released about 6 billion cubic feet of methane into the atmosphere.  So, as usual the people that run the state slapped mandates and regulations for management requirements.  

So, the truth of the matter is, that in most cases, the loss of agricultural lands, the impact of land and sea migratory patterns, unreliable electric generation, all add up to a bleak picture in the effort to fight climate change, which is another name for scamming big bucks and unwieldy power in the hands of idiots.  The strange thing is, that at the end of last year, Gov. Newsom approved 33 percent more new oil and gas drilling permits than Jerry Brown and his approval for fracing soared.  But, it might just be that $15,000 to $25,000 for each permit and he'll slap regulations on the oil and gas companies that will probably stop them, ie, EIS.

[Rob Kramer + 696]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

The point was that comparing the actual conversion efficiency of solar against gas is apples and oranges because the light itself is free. The whole but solar is only 16% efficient (at conversion of sunlight to electricity) is irrelevant - the critical factor is how much a KW of panels costs and how long they last. 

Ya total cost in dollars is very high for renewables.  Dollars to dollars you pay more . Theres no other way of putting it. Ontario has had the highest price increases year to year for 10+ years in a row since the renewables kick. Do you literally want someone to engineer a system source and price it all online like a city planner to compair costs for you to just say "nope not true." ? Mabey solar has gotten to half the price it was. But like shale companies you still pay the piper for everything done before 2019. So from 2007 to now and going forward I can tell you all those added assets are costing us LARGE. Clearly noone is changing anyone's mind on here. JAY hasn't told me hes had a system in place since 09 and a 4 year old Tesla lol. 

[NickW + 2,714]

4 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Ya total cost in dollars is very high for renewables.  Dollars to dollars you pay more . Theres no other way of putting it. Ontario has had the highest price increases year to year for 10+ years in a row since the renewables kick. Do you literally want someone to engineer a system source and price it all online like a city planner to compair costs for you to just say "nope not true." ? Mabey solar has gotten to half the price it was. But like shale companies you still pay the piper for everything done before 2019. So from 2007 to now and going forward I can tell you all those added assets are costing us LARGE. Clearly noone is changing anyone's mind on here. JAY hasn't told me hes had a system in place since 09 and a 4 year old Tesla lol. 

I just stuck 1400W of solar on my roof (DIY) plus grid tie inverters and an electronic diverter to the hot water immersion (no subsidies involved) and the annual rate of return for me is 15- 17%. 

Solar panels on a $ / KW of capacity are very now cheap. 

However comparing solar panels to OCGT (and similar) plant is an apples and oranges comparison. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

5 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

The batteries.

Ah, I see why you are a bit skeptical of batteries then