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[BLA + 1,666]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited September 30, 2020 by BLA

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Donald Trump is not running for a re-election, he is begging for a do-over.

 

[BLA + 1,666]

On 8/29/2020 at 1:53 PM, BLA said:

 

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Edited September 30, 2020 by BLA

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Polls are fake remember?

You guys can't have it both ways. Pick one:

- the polls are fake (so ignore them).

- the polls are real and trump is losing.

 

Edited August 29, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

47 minutes ago, BLA said:

TIDE IS TURNING 

Not really.

"Forty-four percent of overall registered voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey approved of Trump's job as president, a 1 percentage point dip from the last poll."

As for black people, from your own link:

"Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.  That is up 9 points from the previous survey conducted Aug. 8-11, where the President received 15 percent support among this group. "

 

Wow now only 76% say they disapprove of trump! These are the stats you are using to claim he is doing well?

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 8/30/2020 at 1:48 AM, BLA said:

TIDE IS TURNING 

Respectfully disagree.  It may be more realististic to say that Realization is turning.  Not saying you are wrong, but the only way there could need to be a "tide is turning" is if the polls realistically reflected pro-trump voters in the first place.  We have debated the polls, including 2016 polls, and it is obvious that they don't.  It would also mean that they MSM has been presenting unbiased data until now, which, again, it is obvious they have not.

But I get your point, and it is positive news.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

45 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

 

But I get your point, and it is positive news.

It is more likely that Mr. Trump will be defeated at his bid for re-election.  While this is not certain, the numbers do not bode well for the Republican party.

Effectively, there are six States that are in contention:   Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Republican play-book assumption is that they are victors in the SoutheRn Belt States   [Az, Fl, NC] and will lose in PA and MI.  What they are counting on is victory in Wisconsin  (which is why Trump pushed in those Federal Marshals into Kenosha, unasked, pure showmanship).  I think Wisconsin will go Democratic this cycle.  The reason is the problems in the Southwest corner of the State, which is dairy country, and the milk farms are seriously hurting. 

The Democrats ignored Wisconsin and the problems in the last election, and Hillary lost the State by a handful of votes.  Those votes that went for Trump were concentrated in the rural dairy farms, which the arrogant and egotistical Democrats spurned.  So the farmers voted Republican, in the (desperate) hope that the Republicans would attend to their plight.  But they didn't.

Now, some 90% of the milk produced in that sector of Wisconsin is made into cheese.  The market for cheese was largely Asian, and China (no surprise) hit those imports in order to punish Trump for the so-called 'trade war.'  Trump did not alleviate the suffering, and did not develop new export markets, and did not develop further domestic markets.  What Trump did do was drive a tiny wedge into the supply-management controls in Canada Dairy, so there was a little bit of extra market opened up there, but not Enough.  So the dairy industry remains in a dismal, disastrous state.

What that does is provoke those farmers to abandon the Republicans and go back to the Democrats. It has the flavor of a Protest Vote, but as Tip O'Neill so famously stated:  "All politics is local."  The reality is that the dairy farmers of Wisconsin are not interested in the politics of China, nor of Germany and NATO, nor of the Mexican Wall, nor of abortion rights, nor of black lives matter, none of that is interesting when your farm is facing oblivion.  If Trump loses those dairy farmers in the SW corner of Wisconsin, he loses the State - and its electoral votes. 

Even if Trump takes Wisconsin, and loses Michigan and PA, it still is dicey for him.  He would end up with 269 electoral votes, and needs 270 to tip over the top.  That means taking at least one vote from Maine, where the electoral votes are apportioned by the overall state votes, or (I think) one vote in Nebraska, which also apportions votes.  How likely is that?  Nobody knows.

But here is the Republican problem:  Trump is likely to lose Oklahoma.  And the reason for this is that the Supreme Court under Chief Justice Roberts  (a Trump man, let us remember) determined that the native "Indians"  {the aboriginal peoples of the State) are the true land owners of roughly half the State.  So, overnight, half the farms and houses in Oklahoma have clouds on title, and cannot be bought or sold.  No title insurance company is going to touch anything in that State, so it is a big mess;.  Those farmers and home-owners are going to take their wrath out on the Republicans for not making some deal with the natives and buying off their claims.  You can bet that Biden et al will shovel treasury cash at the natives, to clear the land titles. 

Oklahoma has only 7 electoral college votes, and a history of voting Republican. But Trump simply cannot afford to lose those 7 votes.  And he has done nothing about the Supreme Court land-titles decision.  Will OK voters now go Democrat, in protest or disgust?  I predict they will, unless Biden et al totally screws it up. 

And that brings us to the truth of American politics: you don't have to win.  All you have to do is "not lose."  As long as Biden is kept under wraps and not allowed to screw it up with some senile comments, then it is Trump's election to go lose.  Just as Hillary screwed it up and lost in the last one. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

But now there is a chance for Mr. Trump to address those areas of deficiency, since he is an avid follower of your posts here on on OilPrice, as am I.   

But seriously, you are much much better at breaking down the realities of the electoral votes than this humble serf, as you have above, and it looks to be a close race to the end any way you slice it.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

31 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

But now there is a chance for Mr. Trump to address those areas of deficiency, since he is an avid follower of your posts here on on OilPrice, as am I.   

But seriously, you are much much better at breaking down the realities of the electoral votes than this humble serf, as you have above, and it looks to be a close race to the end any way you slice it.

Along that line (of addressing deficiencies), here is one to ponder:  what will happen in Ohio?

No Republican has carried the White House without first carrying Ohio.  Trump has a mixed record in Ohio, as to policies.  First, he undeniably brought some new life back into the steel mills of the Ohio Valley area, where jobs are scarce and paychecks even scarcer.  So he gts lots of bonus points for that.  But the problem is that lots of jobs in Ohio are dependent on cheap aluminum and steel, and the re-imposition of aluminun tariffs to help out two smelters in other States has cost some 4,700 Ohio fabrication jobs.   That is not a lot, probably not enough to tip anything, but it is an indicator that the tariff walls have side effects.  Specifically, cheap aluminum was coming in from Canada, and Canada had a "waiver" for its aluminum exports into the USA.  Since the USA only produces some 1/6 of the bare metal demand (ingots), and fabricates the material further, there is no logic to putting on a tariff against Canada smelters.  The big gorilla in flooding world markets remains China - in both steel and aluminum.  

Ohio went Democrat in 2008 and 2012, then was taken for granted by the Democrats, so the voters there went for Trump in protest to Hillary's haughty disdain for the working man, but not by much.  It has 18 electoral votes, and it is a truism in US politics that, as goes Ohio, so goes the Nation.  Trump cannot afford to lose Ohio, and right now, the State is a toss-up, split right smack down the middle, far too close to call. 

I think Ohio is what is giving the Republican strategists nightmares.  And they have no real program in place to make a dramatic play for those voters.  Ohio voters elected Sherrod Brown as their Senator, he is a Democrat, and very smart  (another Yalie). The Dems have the ability to pull ovtes in Ohio, make no mistake about it.  And Sherrod Brown is an articulate, formidable campaigner.  Personally, I think he would have been a superb Presidential candidate, but as usual, the dems simply re-cycle old has-beens as their standard bearers.  And that is why they have this dismal track record. 

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Trump loses Ohio.  And with 18 electoral votes, it makes it impossible to win at the electoral collefge; 270 becomes out of reach.  

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

It is more likely that Mr. Trump will be defeated at his bid for re-election.  While this is not certain, the numbers do not bode well for the Republican party.

+1

Glad to see a few posts from you Jan.

[BLA + 1,666]

 

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Edited September 30, 2020 by BLA

[BLA + 1,666]

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

8 minutes ago, BLA said:

 

In the case of no winner by inauguration day in January the House Speaker takes over as acting President. 

 

 

We hope.

Ideally trump loses by a very wide margin and just concedes defeat.

Worst case is he calls the election fake and refuses to leave. #CivilWar

[BLA + 1,666]

On 8/30/2020 at 10:16 PM, Enthalpic said:

 

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Edited September 30, 2020 by BLA

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

32 minutes ago, BLA said:

Hillary lost because the black vote and the young people vote stayed home

I was under the impression that Hillary had the vast majority of young people mobilized and in her favor.  You are saying this is not true?

[BLA + 1,666]

On 8/30/2020 at 10:38 PM, Dan Warnick said:

 

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Edited September 30, 2020 by BLA

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

51 minutes ago, BLA said:

Would you wear a Trump MAGA hat or put Trump sticker on your car bumper.  In most states your car windows would be smashed or your car paint job keyed.

U.S. politics is at a new low . . .  and going lower.

I'm glad we agree on a few things:

- Most states dislike trump.

- U.S. politics is at a new low. #trump

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Enthalpic

[BLA + 1,666]

19 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

I'm glad we agree on a few things:

- Most states dislike trump.

 

 

Actually, most states voted for Trump

It's the unhinged haters that can't debate the issues and resort to violence that smash the windows.

Enthal 

As an outside observer  .  .  .  .  Why do you think the nastiest, hate filled , lying politicians come from California ?

They have Adam Schiff , Nancy Pelosi , Eric Swalwell and Maxine Waters to name a few. 

Democratic Party "HELTER SKELTER" Campaign strategy is backfiring.  

 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by BLA

[Bob D + 562]

15 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

I'm glad we agree on a few things:

- Most states dislike trump.

- U.S. politics is at a new low. #trump

 

You are a moron.  

The left is violent, threatening and constitutes the vast majority of rioters.  You just don't give a damn how stupid you look because you have no idea how stupid you are.  

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Bob D said:

You are a moron.  

The left is violent, threatening and constitutes the vast majority of rioters.  You just don't give a damn how stupid you look because you have no idea how stupid you are.  

 

Classy.  Why not rebut the points instead of insulting?

Trump is behind in most states and US politics is at an all-time low.

You are correct that I don't care how I appear to you, why would I?  You probably watch nascar while drinking tall cans of bud light wearing a stained undershirt and a MAGA hat. #trumpClass

 

 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

3 hours ago, Bob D said:

You are a moron.  

The left is violent, threatening and constitutes the vast majority of rioters.  You just don't give a damn how stupid you look because you have no idea how stupid you are.  

Calling Enthalpic stupid is like calling water, wet. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Calling Enthalpic stupid is like calling water, wet. 

And yet, as far as we know, water does not know that it is wet....

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

And yet, as far as we know, water does not know that it is wet....

I single molecule of water is, in fact, not wet.

Try harder.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Richard Snyder + 70]

7 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Classy.  Why not rebut the points instead of insulting?

Trump is behind in most states and US politics is at an all-time low.

You are correct that I don't care how I appear to you, why would I?  You probably watch nascar while drinking tall cans of bud light wearing a stained undershirt and a MAGA hat. #trumpClass

 

 

 

 

Six (6) Democratic Mayors in Minnesota ( a battleground State), yesterday gave their endorsements of President Trump.  Something to the effect of Trump would lead the recovery, and Biden didn't do anything for fifty years.  Minnesota will be Red this year.  Landslide win for Trump, the democrats just haven't come out of the basement to see the writing on the wall.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Richard Snyder
Spelling

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

53 minutes ago, Richard Snyder said:

Six (6) Democratic Mayors in Minnesota ( a battleground State), yesterday gave their endorsements of President Trump.  Something to the effect of Trump would lead the recovery, and Biden didn't do anything for fifty years.  Minnesota will be Red this year.  Landslide win for Trump, the democrats just haven't come out of the basement to see the writing on the wall.

6 Minnesota Democratic mayors endorse Trump, slam Biden as 'out of touch'

6 Minnesota Democratic mayors endorse Trump, slam Biden as 'out of touch'

• POLITICS

President Donald Trump gives thumbs up while walking to Air Force One upon departure at Chennault International Airport, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2020, in Lake Charles, La. Trump toured damage from Hurricane Laura in Texas and Louisiana. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) more >

 

rint

By Jessica Chasmar - The Washington Times - Monday, August 31, 2020

Six Democratic mayors from Minnesota’s Iron Range endorsed President Trump’s reelection Friday, signing an open letter that praised the president as a champion for working-class people and slammed Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden as “out of touch.”

“Today, we don’t recognize the Democratic Party,” the mayors wrote. “It has been moved so far to the left it can no longer claim to be advocates of the working class. The hard-working Minnesotans that built their lives and supported their families here on the Range have been abandoned by radical Democrats. We didn’t choose to leave the Democratic Party, the party left us.”

“Lifelong politicians like Joe Biden are out of touch with the working class, out of touch with what the country needs, and out of touch with those of us here on the Iron Range and in small towns like ours across our nation,” the mayors wrote.

---

The mayors included Chris Swanson of Two Harbors, John Champa of Chisholm, Larry Cuffe of Virginia, Chuck Novak of Ely, Robert Vlaisavljevich of Eveleth, and Andrea Zupancich of Babbitt.

The letter coincided with a visit Friday by Vice President Mike Pence to the Clure Public Marine Terminal in Duluth, where Mr. Swanson and Mr. Cuffe joined Mr. Pence onstage outside a U.S. Customs and Border Protection warehouse.

 

“There’s many people in northern Minnesota who truly are Republicans,” Mr. Swanson said, describing a blurring of what had once been solid Democrat country, the Duluth News Tribune reported. “They truly understand what’s going on.”

“Joe Biden did nothing to help the working class,” Mr. Cuffe said, the newspaper reported.