ronwagn

New Chinese Coal Plants Equal All those in U.S.A

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Ron you better look at the average number of hours per year and average revenue per hour of operation before you get too carried away. Average time on line is less than 50% for all coal plants. Break even is 79-81% for economics. The plants represent sunk costs and they only operate when the power price is more than the cost of fuel less shutdown costs. Most of the new projects were committed to construction 8 years ago when coal was the cheapest source. China is shutting down coal plants that are 20 years old because they are not efficient enough or low enough pollution to be worth keeping. New plants are brought on line to cut air pollution two ways. The new units use 8300-8500 btu's/mwh vs 9300btu's mwh for pre 2005 units. And they have better pollution controls. China has only one city in the top 100 most polluted in the world now unlike 2008 where people had to wear masks during the Beijing Olympics. Only the newest plants stay on line year round.

City of San Antonio has a coal plant it brought on line in 2009 that is one of the 5 cleanest and most efficient coal plants in the US. Power prices annually are such that it operates only 5 months a year and loses $33million in cash and $100 million per year when capital costs are depreciated. https://sanantonioreport.org/coal-plant-losing-money-but-cps-energy-is-keeping-it-for-now/ Right now at 2230 hours that plant is losing $40/mwh($3600 gross/hour) because the grid price is $18.78. Breakeven is $58/mwh. There are no longer enough hours in the day in ERCOT at rates above $80/mwh to breakeven on a daily basis, But the cost of shut down and restart 3 or four days later is high enough to make it less of a money loss to stay on line losing money until about the 15-20th of September. After then it won't be profitable long enough to run again until the last week of December at the earliest.

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Yet China is still the largest user of coal in the world, followed by India. America has won the struggle to reduce pollution by using more natural gas than any other large country. Europeans were afraid to frack so lost out on their own cheap natural gas so they are stuck with wind farms in some formerly scenic areas. I am against coal and pro natural gas. 

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11 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Yet China is still the largest user of coal in the world, followed by India.

In fairness those countries have loads of people and are less developed.

Leaders lead; the winner of a race should not slow down just because the competition is lagging.

Set the highest standards, don't lower yours to match theirs.

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I agree with your statement. I am anti coal. I just think the best answer is natural gas for advanced countries. I don't know that there has been any real change in Chinese and Indian air pollution. I hope their lungs don't hurt like mine did, with exertion, in smogville Los Angeles. back in the fifties. 

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and you still haven't made a point. Building new coal plants only matters if they are operated and the capacity factor is dropping in China. I am not defending the Chinese, I suspect they will be the laggards and the rest of the world needs to be in a position to shame them. Losing face is the greatest motivator in Asia. The real question is if natural gas is so wonderful why aren't they adopting more of it?

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6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The real question is if natural gas is so wonderful why aren't they adopting more of it?

Isn't coal still cheaper in China?

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Just now, Strangelovesurfing said:

Isn't coal still cheaper in China?

I'm sure it is. it was a question for Ron because he supports gas so much.

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(edited)

What matters is how much coal they use not how many plants they build. They have been claiming that the new coal plants are replacing the old low efficiency plants. https://chinapower.csis.org/energy-footprint/#:~:text=Over%20the%20last%20half%20century,percent%20of%20China's%20energy%20use.

China’s heavy use of “subcritical” coal plants has exacerbated the issue, since such plants are notorious for burning coal in a dirty and inefficient manner. Efforts have been made to clean up coal production by renovating old coal-burning facilities, and some Chinese sources estimate that China will possess the world’s largest high-efficiency coal power system by 2020. By 2019, ultra-low emissions technology was incorporated into 80 percent of China’s coal-fired energy capacity, and more low emission plants are set to be built in 2020. 

image.png.d4c3619db2c3b374968a69cc6fb333ea.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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Now, now, Mr. McKinsey ... you might want to be a little cautious  as your (accurate) referenced data is touting the positive effects of HELE coal plants (High Efficiency Low Emission).

The Japanese have been making extremely rapid advances in this field utilizing approaches such as finely pulverized coal, oxygen-rich 'air' in the combustion chambers, ultra high pressures, etc.

 

Pretty impressive stuff ... all the more so as advances in material technology are further enabling catalytic processes to capture just about all the emissions coming out the stack.

 

Cost of natgas versus coal is - as usual - a determinant factor in fuel use.

Despite probably having the largest shale gas resources in the world, it does not seem likely that the Chinese will significantly  expand production in the near future.

Price of piped natty from Siberia is said to be about $6/mmbtu at the border ... significantly higher when shipped south. This opens the door for LNG imports as a viable competitor. The recent statement from Tellurian that they could operate in an environment of $5/mmbtu sales price should rock the energy world, if the statement proves to be accurate.

Heck, Mr. McKinsey, your apparent receptivity to HELE coal plants (or at least a seemingly sympathetic response) might lead one to wonder if you will now promote these new, magnificent coal burners as a solution for California's power problems?

Curious minds wants ta kno.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Yet China is still the largest user of coal in the world, followed by India. America has won the struggle to reduce pollution by using more natural gas than any other large country. Europeans were afraid to frack so lost out on their own cheap natural gas so they are stuck with wind farms in some formerly scenic areas. I am against coal and pro natural gas. 

I always write the same on any thread that is about:

1.Why China uses coal and United States uses natural gas for electricity generation ?

2. How long coal will be top source of electricity in China ?

ad1. China 7,500 TWh and US 4,400 Twh of electricity generation. China 70% more.

China still has relatively high growth of electricity generation, will be 200% of US in 2023-2024.

US is the largest consumer and producer of natural gas.

There is not enough known resources of natural gas on the planet Earth for China to switch to coal from natural gas.

ad2. At least next 50 years, cause only alternative technology known is nuclear power.

And nuclear power is still too risky, too complicated and too expensive for densely populated China.

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Sorry Marcin but you have no idea of the immense resources of natural gas around the world or the methane hydrates which are much higher. Please do some research of your own. I have written the facts many times!

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18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

and you still haven't made a point. Building new coal plants only matters if they are operated and the capacity factor is dropping in China. I am not defending the Chinese, I suspect they will be the laggards and the rest of the world needs to be in a position to shame them. Losing face is the greatest motivator in Asia. The real question is if natural gas is so wonderful why aren't they adopting more of it?

 

Calling from planet Earth: Not enough known resources of natural gas on our planet for China to switch electricity generation from coal to natural gas.

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3 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Sorry Marcin but you have no idea of the immense resources of natural gas around the world or the methane hydrates which are much higher. Please do some research of your own. I have written the facts many times!

You are right it is probably very simple, but I do not know.

Please tell me how, using what known resources you can supply China with additional 1,500 billion m3 of natural gas.

Current global production is 4,000 billion m3 including US the largest producer with 920 billion m3 of natural gas.

You have 20 years and 5 trillion dollars, what would you do ?

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13 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

 

Calling from planet Earth: Not enough known resources of natural gas on our planet for China to switch electricity generation from coal to natural gas.

You need to direct that to the gas heads on this forum not me. I couldn't care less because there is definitely enough sunshine and wind to replace China's coal usage.

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36 minutes ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

 

Heck, Mr. McKinsey, your apparent receptivity to HELE coal plants (or at least a seemingly sympathetic response) might lead one to wonder if you will now promote these new, magnificent coal burners as a solution for California's power problems?

Curious minds wants ta kno.

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, I am not receptive at all to coal plants of any kind. I am just playing along on Ron's coal thread that he was so excited about. The future will likely be a 100% green US and Europe who will then need to shame China into getting rid of  coal. Loss of face is a huge motivator in Asia.

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22 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

You are right it is probably very simple, but I do not know.

Please tell me how, using what known resources you can supply China with additional 1,500 billion m3 of natural gas.

Current global production is 4,000 billion m3 including US the largest producer with 920 billion m3 of natural gas.

You have 20 years and 5 trillion dollars, what would you do ?

The Chinese and India have chosen the dirty path, they know all their options and do their own research. 

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57 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

 

Calling from planet Earth: Not enough known resources of natural gas on our planet for China to switch electricity generation from coal to natural gas.

You are ignorant of the facts. Do some of your research. I am tired of doing it for you.

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On 9/3/2020 at 2:19 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

and you still haven't made a point. Building new coal plants only matters if they are operated and the capacity factor is dropping in China. I am not defending the Chinese, I suspect they will be the laggards and the rest of the world needs to be in a position to shame them. Losing face is the greatest motivator in Asia. The real question is if natural gas is so wonderful why aren't they adopting more of it?

Also many of these new coal plants replaced older less efficient plant. 

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