Natural Gas Will Rule The US Energy Market For [the next election cycle]

[Meredith Poor + 883]

For the people sticking their noses up bovine orifices:

By 2044, close to [all] of the existing coal power generation capacity will be gone. At the same time, solar will grow from 60 GW this year to some [5]50 GW in 2044 – an impressive [eight]fold growth. Wind will grow, too, albeit more modestly, from 115 GW today to [4]91 GW in 2044. [Gas will flame out].

In 2044, according to Energy Market Advisors, a division of Hitachi ABB [a power generation equipment vendor], gas will account for 43 percent. [Consultants that aren't selling power generation equipment have radically different estimates, some of which see gas tanking by 2030].

Look at predictions made 24 years ago (1996) about the structure of US power generation assets in 2020. See if they bear any resemblance to the present reality.

[A/Plague + 50]

15 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

For the people sticking their noses up bovine orifices:

By 2044, close to [all] of the existing coal power generation capacity will be gone. At the same time, solar will grow from 60 GW this year to some [5]50 GW in 2044 – an impressive [eight]fold growth. Wind will grow, too, albeit more modestly, from 115 GW today to [4]91 GW in 2044. [Gas will flame out].

In 2044, according to Energy Market Advisors, a division of Hitachi ABB [a power generation equipment vendor], gas will account for 43 percent. [Consultants that aren't selling power generation equipment have radically different estimates, some of which see gas tanking by 2030].

Look at predictions made 24 years ago (1996) about the structure of US power generation assets in 2020. See if they bear any resemblance to the present reality.

you have not yet mentioned hydrogen and cold nuclear fusion ... science is rapidly accelerating, therefore gas as a source of CO2 will very soon be banned if by that time New York is not under water from melted glaciers

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

52 minutes ago, A/Plague said:

gas as a source of CO2 will very soon be banned if by that time New York is not under water from melted glaciers

When is this supposed to happen again? 2007 was 13 years ago. Isn't that an "Inconvenient Truth"? 

[markslawson + 1,042]

23 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

By 2044, close to [all] of the existing coal power generation capacity will be gone. At the same time, solar will grow from 60 GW this year to some [5]50 GW in 2044 – an impressive [eight]fold growth. Wind will grow, too, albeit more modestly, from 115 GW today to [4]91 GW in 2044. [Gas will flame out].

I take it you're talking about US power generation. The Chinese are building coal power plants like crazy. Far more capacity than they are ever likely to need. But in the US gas is pushing out coal, no argument there, thanks to the fracking revolution. In the UK coal has gone almost completely thanks to gas, from different sources. A future without gas, however, is more problematic, considering that there are no dispatchable plants which rely only on renewable energy, despite years of trying. There are hybrid dispatchable plants which use both renewables and gas, but not renewables alone.. 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 9/26/2020 at 8:22 PM, Meredith Poor said:

Look at predictions made 24 years ago (1996) about the structure of US power generation assets in 2020. See if they bear any resemblance to the present reality.

I would apply the same logic to your predictions of wind and solar dominance.

The LCOE calculations used to make those predictions are production-level costs. They've failed to account for the system-level costs that will determine the energy mix. System level costs work strongly against wind and solar.