I must admit I get a kick out from reading about the pundits "enlightening" us all on what we can expect concerning oil demand and most of all, what the prices will be.... They are either delusional or so full of...themselves that they can hardly avoid dishing out their grandiose forecasts (up or down). Their caveats are engineered merely to make you believe their main forecast expectations are good. 

I say all this out of frustration, reading how rare is the real understanding of the concept of RISK. In some cases I  find their naïveté astonishing, reading many of these "experts " crafting their expectations of price and demand in such a colloquial manner, devoid of any real technical substance.

It is very difficult to forecast oil future demand and price but I want to clearly state that I'm not against it at all. As a matter of fact, I am an economist preparing sophisticated forecast analyses, but this analyses are structured on stochastic process techniques and hybrid models. I do not factor into the models "subject matter experts' opinions, because they are worthless (this has been richly proved).

Also, I am NOT singling out any pundit writing about these subjects. However, interested parties -especially those thinking in investing in this sector- should endeavor to separate the wheat from chaff. The good news is that a website such as oilprice.com generates a wealth of valuable information which can be the foundation for the type of analysis I refer to. Pundits don't need to include a host of mathematical jargon or symbols to tell us on what are they basing their forecast; just refer to their technical findings and other processes which I will not detail at this time,

To those interested in the details of the sophisticated techniques I use, I will have to disappoint you all. This rant is about my frustration when I read about these pundits' expertise after they have "taken a peek into the future", and not about self-promotion. By the way, those searching my nom de plume (Beowulf) will learn it is an 8th century english poem. 

And now, let the spin begin!

Edited by Beowulf

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