War for Taiwan?

[frankfurter + 562]

1 hour ago, Wombat said:

Mr Osas, never under-estimate the stupidity of politicians, especially ones that are "elected" for life. Remember Hitler? Well Xitler no different. That is why American and allied forces are pouring enormous amount of weapons and soldiers into Asia. If China wants war and gets humiliated again, it will be thanks to Mr Xi alone. China is unfortunate with both it's geography and it's history. The West has accommodated their demands for 40 years and shown great patience. China must stop behaving like a teenage boy who has just got the car keys from his father. The West has lost patience. Time for China to grow up or get a boot up the butt. I do not like it when China sails her Navy in hostile fashion between Australia and Indonesia, and I am sure they do not like it when the US Navy sails through the Taiwan Strait. However, the geography of this region requires co-operation and restraint as it pertains to energy security and food security, not to mention general trade. It is China who decided they were not happy with the "status quo" and feels humiliated when the West has done nothing but honour the Chinese dream to become a great nation again. The CCP need to get rid of Mr Xi before his ego cost them all their lives. Maybe it is not Mr Xi that wants war. Perhaps it is the Generals? Either way, they are skating on thin ice now. I think they have painted themselves into a corner from which they cannot escape and that is why they are lashing out now. As I say, the geography of Asia is not compatible with peace whenever one power becomes too much greater than another. Rather than dwell on the past, China should learn from it. If they try to invade Japan, they will become Japan if you know what I mean? The West is here to stay, whether they like it or not. Let us pray that the CCP learn to be grateful for what they have and stop asking "more please"?

A true imperialist. Churchill would be proud of you. Just one detail you omit: the hostility you infer is not instigated by China; China is simply reacting.

Back to topic, I see you support a nuclear war to give a good kick up the backside.

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 11/19/2020 at 10:26 PM, JoMack said:

China will take Taiwan as they did in Hong Kong.  A lot of chest thumping at the Pentagon, Feinstein will be clutching at her pearls, and McConnell will be yelling that the U.S. must go in, but Biden will be in his basement holding on to his mask with a firm grip.  At that point, he might also be sucking his thumb.  If Taiwan can protect itself, it better gear up and soon.

It is not just about Taiwan. China wants to dominate the entire planet, starting with the USA:

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Is-The-US-Prepared-For-War-With-China.html

[JoMack + 547]

On 11/21/2020 at 8:55 AM, frankfurter said:

uh, the topic is whether you would support the US going to war over TW against a nuclear foe.
Re your post, you imply Biden would not support. But this assumes Biden will be sufficiently lucid to command during his entire term. This is likely a big assumption, given his declining cognitive abilities, Biden's announcements are proving he intends fully to stack his cabinet with the old guard members. That means Hillary will be in charge, and she is itching still for yet another war. The 'AsianPivot' is her baby. Or could she be bought also? An interesting speculation.

The problem is not whether or not Biden would protect Taiwan, as you said, the old guard members are back.  They'll do an Arab Spring to destabilize countries, but protect Taiwan by looking China in the eye?  Hell no.  

[JoMack + 547]

Oh, and frankfurter - that's an UH! No Biden will do an Obama "don't cross that red line you bastards"!  Ummmmmmm, haha, I didn't mean it.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Taiwan Semiconductor has a 50% global share in the foundry. You can't have the next iPhone 5G without their technology. This basically is what puts semiconductors at the center of the war between the U.S. and China. 

Why? Because semiconductors power the modern world. And nobody can make semiconductors like TSM. 

Believe it or not, those semiconductors are important enough to future technological advances that whoever controls them controls the technology innovation space and therefore the world. This seems so bizarre as I write it, but that's the way it is. 

No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. No 5G, no compete in the world marketplace. 

This is so dispositive that I would be very surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor didn't telescope its operations somewhere else. For example, they're building a fabrication plant in Arizona. This also signals that they want a closer relationship with the United States.  

China has deeper reasons for going after Taiwan, but it's the threat of losing the semiconductor that has them jelly-kneed. With a Biden presidency, I see an acquiescence that would stun Confucius. I truly don't think Mr. Biden has the mojo for much of a conflict, with anyone.  

 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

35 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Taiwan Semiconductor has a 50% global share in the foundry. You can't have the next iPhone 5G without their technology. This basically is what puts semiconductors at the center of the war between the U.S. and China. 

Why? Because semiconductors power the modern world. And nobody can make semiconductors like TSM. 

Believe it or not, those semiconductors are important enough to future technological advances that whoever controls them controls the technology innovation space and therefore the world. This seems so bizarre as I write it, but that's the way it is. 

No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. No 5G, no compete in the world marketplace. 

This is so dispositive that I would be very surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor didn't telescope its operations somewhere else. For example, they're building a fabrication plant in Arizona. This also signals that they want a closer relationship with the United States.  

China has deeper reasons for going after Taiwan, but it's the threat of losing the semiconductor that has them jelly-kneed. With a Biden presidency, I see an acquiescence that would stun Confucius. I truly don't think Mr. Biden has the mojo for much of a conflict, with anyone.  

 

He is beginning to fracture already, one simple unanticipated question during a staged event and poof! up in smoke. https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-cbs-news-reporter-bo-erickson

Good old uncle Joe and those damm lying dog faced pony soldiers..

Perhaps a time to go beyond talks of ww2 war strategies. We live in a time of tech and technical warfare that might challenge the minds of many in terms of a sudden and violent confrontation. The Chinese naval group may well look great in a parade, but when called to task, abject failure comes to mind. The very infa structure is archaic..have a read

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-chinas-aircraft-carriers-compare-to-us-navy-flattops-2020-10

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Perhaps a time to go beyond talks of ww2 war strategies. We live in a time of tech and technical warfare that might challenge the minds of many in terms of a sudden and violent confrontation.

You are correct.

The US has states full of people who think a simple gun is an effective weapon of war.  How cute.  Sure you can use it to shoot your wife, neighbour, and yourself, but is is not an effective means of modern warfare anymore.

Computers are the new weapons.  Watch how fast a nation can be destabilized once our software attacks the infrastructure network. 

Like Stuxnet but far more distributed.

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 11/22/2020 at 7:19 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

Taiwan Semiconductor has a 50% global share in the foundry. You can't have the next iPhone 5G without their technology. This basically is what puts semiconductors at the center of the war between the U.S. and China. 

Why? Because semiconductors power the modern world. And nobody can make semiconductors like TSM. 

Believe it or not, those semiconductors are important enough to future technological advances that whoever controls them controls the technology innovation space and therefore the world. This seems so bizarre as I write it, but that's the way it is. 

No Taiwan Semiconductor, no 5G. No 5G, no compete in the world marketplace. 

This is so dispositive that I would be very surprised if Taiwan Semiconductor didn't telescope its operations somewhere else. For example, they're building a fabrication plant in Arizona. This also signals that they want a closer relationship with the United States.  

China has deeper reasons for going after Taiwan, but it's the threat of losing the semiconductor that has them jelly-kneed. With a Biden presidency, I see an acquiescence that would stun Confucius. I truly don't think Mr. Biden has the mojo for much of a conflict, with anyone.  

 

TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, those are the big dogs, and only TSMC is a foundry, so many chip companies now are fabless, or just run pilot R&D lines. You are so right, hard to underestimate TSMC's importance.

That said, so much of 5G isn't 8 micron state-of-the-art. Analogue chips, essential for the tech, and more likely to be 40 microns. Working on a project with the US Broadcom. 

That wonderful modern smart phone has 100s of chips, but only two or three leading edge ones in some senses. The US still has some leading edge chops, just need more thru put.

[frankfurter + 562]

On 11/25/2020 at 10:51 AM, John Foote said:

TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, those are the big dogs, and only TSMC is a foundry, so many chip companies now are fabless, or just run pilot R&D lines. You are so right, hard to underestimate TSMC's importance.

That said, so much of 5G isn't 8 micron state-of-the-art. Analogue chips, essential for the tech, and more likely to be 40 microns. Working on a project with the US Broadcom. 

That wonderful modern smart phone has 100s of chips, but only two or three leading edge ones in some senses. The US still has some leading edge chops, just need more thru put.

True. Currently, China lags behind the producers you note. But the gap will be closed soon.

China claims TW as part of its territory taken away by force and now supported by a foreign power by threat of force. This is vastly different from any commercial value TSMC may present, especially in a tech world wherein the pace of tech advancement renders products obsolete in a few months.

[Michael Sanches + 187]

On 11/23/2020 at 12:42 AM, Enthalpic said:

You are correct.

The US has states full of people who think a simple gun is an effective weapon of war.  How cute.  Sure you can use it to shoot your wife, neighbour, and yourself, but is is not an effective means of modern warfare anymore.

Computers are the new weapons.  Watch how fast a nation can be destabilized once our software attacks the infrastructure network. 

Like Stuxnet but far more distributed.

This is proven by how we have rolled over Afghanistan the last 19 years and made it into a peaceful, Taliban-free paradise.

Another good example is Portland, Oregon where we have stopped the rioting, looting, and burning.

It was really cool how we deposed Assad of Syria with a flip of the switch.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

23 minutes ago, Michael Sanches said:

 

Another good example is Portland, Oregon where we have stopped the rioting, looting, and burning.

It was really cool how we deposed Assad of Syria with a flip of the switch.

Those are your failures - not ours. 

Trump fails are common.

Edited November 27, 2020 by Enthalpic

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

11 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Those are your failures - not ours. 

Trump fails are common.

Lay of the bud or turn the heater back on. It would seem the synapse's are experiencing a connectivity issue'...Maybe just a cheese burger.

Edited November 27, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

55 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Lay of the bud or turn the heater back on. It would seem the synapse's are experiencing a connectivity issue'...Maybe just a cheese burger.

Gain a sense of humour.  Only Ward thinks I'm a collective.

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 11/26/2020 at 2:12 AM, frankfurter said:

True. Currently, China lags behind the producers you note. But the gap will be closed soon.

China claims TW as part of its territory taken away by force and now supported by a foreign power by threat of force. This is vastly different from any commercial value TSMC may present, especially in a tech world wherein the pace of tech advancement renders products obsolete in a few months.

The gap, technically and in volume, chip production wise, is quite substantial, and US policy is working hard to keep it that way. You can't American made and ship to SMIC soon.

Imagine trying to do Fabs without AMAT, or Lam. You can't. A source of grief to the folks that buy the tools.

In efforts not widely publicized, but similar to how the US tries to keep Iranian oil off the market, foreign tool manufacturers are also under heavy pressure not to sell state-of-the-art. Maybe five years ago technology, but not state of the art. If someone, anyone, thinks you could knock off high end semiconductor manufacturing tools, it would have been done some time ago. It takes a few years and over the years it's gone from a garage industry and tools made by the original semiconductor companies, to highly specialized and full of theoretical PhD physicists with years in the business. Hard to clone them. And the process recipes are extremely well guarded quite well. TSMC figured out 8 nano meter and even Intell struggled, and buying from the same manufacturers. Leading edge tools are collaborative with the manufacturer as well. I've seen the specs on what goes to China. Mid-90s stuff. Still very impressive.

The strange relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland benefits them both. Nixon was right, above all money is the power they seek, and taking down Taiwan would cause economic disruptions hard to overstate. More for the West than China, but a definite lose/lose.

The IOT, internet of everything, that will explode the use of semiconductors. As BTO would say, you ain't seen nothing yet. The pie is expanding faster than ever. Tools that were expected to be obsolete 15 years ago, new ones are being built for raw capacity, and the factories making the tool are booked to capacity and looking to expand. 

Most of the chips in China won't be leading edge design, and yes, China is on a fab building spree like the world has never known. But it will be five years before it really starts to impact.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,537]

Odd you speaking to China building fabs on a that level. In 2011 Intel began construction on facilities in Hillsboro OR. on a level that is still strange to this day. Strange defined...Knife River delivered thousands of truck delivery's of base rock for foundation's. At the time i knew a logistics foreman for Knife River the logistics just overwhelmed him. Listening to him it was as if Intel was laying mountains of rock. Yet no news of it..and as of now they are cutting back personal in large numbers locally.

Edited November 28, 2020 by Eyes Wide Open

[frankfurter + 562]

4 hours ago, John Foote said:

The gap, technically and in volume, chip production wise, is quite substantial, and US policy is working hard to keep it that way. You can't American made and ship to SMIC soon.

Imagine trying to do Fabs without AMAT, or Lam. You can't. A source of grief to the folks that buy the tools.

In efforts not widely publicized, but similar to how the US tries to keep Iranian oil off the market, foreign tool manufacturers are also under heavy pressure not to sell state-of-the-art. Maybe five years ago technology, but not state of the art. If someone, anyone, thinks you could knock off high end semiconductor manufacturing tools, it would have been done some time ago. It takes a few years and over the years it's gone from a garage industry and tools made by the original semiconductor companies, to highly specialized and full of theoretical PhD physicists with years in the business. Hard to clone them. And the process recipes are extremely well guarded quite well. TSMC figured out 8 nano meter and even Intell struggled, and buying from the same manufacturers. Leading edge tools are collaborative with the manufacturer as well. I've seen the specs on what goes to China. Mid-90s stuff. Still very impressive.

The strange relationship between Taiwan and the Mainland benefits them both. Nixon was right, above all money is the power they seek, and taking down Taiwan would cause economic disruptions hard to overstate. More for the West than China, but a definite lose/lose.

The IOT, internet of everything, that will explode the use of semiconductors. As BTO would say, you ain't seen nothing yet. The pie is expanding faster than ever. Tools that were expected to be obsolete 15 years ago, new ones are being built for raw capacity, and the factories making the tool are booked to capacity and looking to expand. 

Most of the chips in China won't be leading edge design, and yes, China is on a fab building spree like the world has never known. But it will be five years before it really starts to impact.

valid points. but I shall be not surprised if China shaves a few years off your estimates.

 

[GeneralLevy + 5]

Anecdotally, the USA obsession with China makes me suspect the USA has already been overtaken 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 11/12/2020 at 4:00 PM, Boat said:

Of course the US would retaliate over Taiwan, Hong Cong, South China Sea etc.

The reason there are not dozens of countries with nuclear weapons is the promise of retaliation by the US if your a basically fair trading partner with the Western world.

The US would have to demonstrate military superiority if China attacked basically anybody except Iran, N Korea, Syria, Russia. You know, traditional bad actors. But who knows the US might not like that either.

Any real attack against U.S. forces would immediately stop most trade with China, Russia, or any other country. Even under a Biden administration. We would at least go into cold war mode. If not the political kickback would be severe. China will happily put Taiwan on the back burner while it devour us as it did before Trump. It is salivating right now. All the while it will try to appear reasonable to the world. Australia and Canada are presently suffering economically for taking a stand against China. The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia  are already getting worried about their sea borders. 

[KilonBerlin + 9]

Since my current situation (extreme angry because of AMD and Nvidia) has to do much with the product of a "Foundry" and since Taiwan is the Saudi Arabia of these it seems, could they be easy evacuated? Why Taiwan for these (more or less) new 7 up to 14nm process or the 300mm wafers? Costs for employees should be a small part for such high tech?! I would want the EU to protect the save CPU/GPU and SoC production, except apple products^^

[Boat + 1,315]

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Any real attack against U.S. forces would immediately stop most trade with China, Russia, or any other country. Even under a Biden administration. We would at least go into cold war mode. If not the political kickback would be severe. China will happily put Taiwan on the back burner while it devour us as it did before Trump. It is salivating right now. All the while it will try to appear reasonable to the world. Australia and Canada are presently suffering economically for taking a stand against China. The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia  are already getting worried about their sea borders. 

Devour? All they have done is piss off most of their trading partners. You call this acting reasonable and then list allies that don’t think it’s reasonable. 
You do know Japan, South Korea, India, the US and others all joined in the South China Sea in a show of force. They don’t look devoured. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Boat said:

Devour? All they have done is piss off most of their trading partners. You call this acting reasonable and then list allies that don’t think it’s reasonable. 
You do know Japan, South Korea, India, the US and others all joined in the South China Sea in a show of force. They don’t look devoured. 

Boat, we just "elected",maybe, Biden. He is beholden to China and his son is totally exposed and should be going to prison. The American people have little choice but to buy the products available for a reasonable price. The media do not tell the truth and hide the truth. So who is pissed off enough to actually do anything regarding trade without Trump's leadership? Watch the Demoncrats and RINOS trying to kiss the asses of the Chinese. Do you think we will really switch our manufacturing to alternate countries without Trump? What other countries will face the reality and oppose China in any meaningful way? Serious questions. I would like everyone's opinion. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by ronwagn

[Boat + 1,315]

So if Americans are buying China stuff for the best bang for the buck, what’s not to like. 
What part of the media you worried about, Fox? Look, China hacked our F-35 data. Thats about as bad as it can get. They also have been bad actors in many other areas. But the military umbrella by the US has not gone away. Trump through tariffs has warned them of their bad behavior. 9 out of 10 of Chinas top trading partners are our allies. We have China by the nuts, not the other way around. Where we and our allies have been weak is just a lack of fair policies allowing China enough rope to get into trouble. I believe corporate power over all of us peons was good and bad but definitely not controlled enough. Put your fear aside.

Worst case scenario China does not join the free trading world norms. Well, over time in a joint effort the US and allies wind down trading and isolate China. 

But make no mistake we are still the worlds policeman at least when it comes to proportionate military response to a bad China incident.

Edited December 1, 2020 by Boat

[Boat + 1,315]

I will give Trump credit for taking some of corporate power away to problem solve. We will see how Biden runs his show. But it’s not like Trump stopped Musk from building a new car factory. It’s not like trading has stopped. It’s not like the trade imbalance has improved. It’s not like China’s troublemaking has improved. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Boat

[john fletcher + 2]

On 11/8/2020 at 6:26 PM, frankfurter said:

Are you prepared to fight the most costly, the most deadly, most destructive war in history over an island of no value to you?

 

 

Give peace a chance "John Lennon" 1969

Edited December 4, 2020 by john fletcher

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 12/1/2020 at 12:15 AM, Boat said:

So if Americans are buying China stuff for the best bang for the buck, what’s not to like. 
What part of the media you worried about, Fox? Look, China hacked our F-35 data. Thats about as bad as it can get. They also have been bad actors in many other areas. But the military umbrella by the US has not gone away. Trump through tariffs has warned them of their bad behavior. 9 out of 10 of Chinas top trading partners are our allies. We have China by the nuts, not the other way around. Where we and our allies have been weak is just a lack of fair policies allowing China enough rope to get into trouble. I believe corporate power over all of us peons was good and bad but definitely not controlled enough. Put your fear aside.

Worst case scenario China does not join the free trading world norms. Well, over time in a joint effort the US and allies wind down trading and isolate China. 

But make no mistake we are still the worlds policeman at least when it comes to proportionate military response to a bad China incident.

My concern is people living under totalitarian regimes. China trade should be minimized, not maximized. The evils of the CCP will not be reduced without weakening their power. They are the equivalent of Nazis and their goals are much more threatening in the long run. 

See China Stories: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Wb2YoQGpSWTz32ljsiA_ey6FLVqc2Dpe7Fnpiqn9lBs/edit