War for Taiwan?

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

29 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

I have brought the following article to the forum before for discussion.  It is an eye opener.  It shows how China could quite literally take out U.S. bases and military forces, not to mention Taiwan's defenses in the process.  Check out who the authors are, and what positions they hold and have held.  Read it and then we can chat again.

FIRST STRIKE China’s Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Very credible authors!

Scary stuff in a very scary unstable world 

I didnt read all of it but got the gist and yes it is an eye opener to their missile capabilities.

I still dont see where the gain with a land grab is though and to go through with a preemptive strike against the US  would be a crazy strategy. It wouldn't end well for either nation. Why risk nuclear war with the worlds largest super power. These missiles wouldnt take out all of the nuclear subs in the area.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

One of the things I remember that gives a pretty quick understanding of why Taiwan is important militarily, think of Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, and imagine what that means to the world's one superpower as far as defending the entire region.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

24 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Very credible authors!

Scary stuff in a very scary unstable world 

I didnt read all of it but got the gist and yes it is an eye opener to their missile capabilities.

I still dont see where the gain with a land grab is though and to go through with a preemptive strike against the US  would be a crazy strategy. It wouldn't end well for either nation. Why risk nuclear war with the worlds largest super power. These missiles wouldnt take out all of the nuclear subs in the area.

Read it all if you get a chance.

[Michael Sanches + 187]

12 hours ago, frankfurter said:

I'm curious to know why you believe China could not take Taiwan. 

Distance from China to Taiwan = 80 miles.

From Portsmouth to lightly held Normandy = 100 miles

Allies needed:

7000 ships
Complete air superiority (This includes no enemy missiles)
Complete Sea superiority
Two artificial Harbors
Perfect weather
Thousands of paratroopers
Hundreds of floatable vehicles
Shore bombardment - It was found that shore bombardment had only been effective in areas where 20 tons of explosive per acre was achieved (only 2 small areas successful)
Germans to hold their best troops away from the beaches
Hitler to refuse to send reinforcements believing the real invasion was coming to Calais
Invading a country hostile to the defenders (partisans)

And the Germans almost split the beachheads anyway and threw the allies back into the sea.

Speaking of Calais, which is only 20 miles from Dover, it was considered too heavily protected to invade, even with all the above resources.

 

[Michael Sanches + 187]

7 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

  5,000 small craft with 20 men on board each can't be that big of a hill to climb.  Just sayin.

50 craft of 20 men = 100,000.

For the invasion of Japan, the initial wave was to be 20 divisions (360,000 men) backed up by the whole US fleet and the US and British Air Forces. Expected casualties of the first wave was 100%, with only 100,000 of those dead and the rest only wounded

Also, infantry only carries enough ammo for < half hour of fire. After that, any survivors would have to surrender or die.

[Michael Sanches + 187]

How to possibly conquer Taiwan.

1. Neutron bomb wipes out people in Taiwan, Chinese walks in. US would would not resist fait accompli.

2. Nuclear destruction. Effective. Useful?

3. Conventional invasion would fail.

4. Blockade. This could work. It all depends on US and allied response. Russia tried it with Berlin and US responded and blockade failed. But, today? Airlift may not be enough. Pushing ships through will require China to initiate conventional combat. Now, the ball is back in China's court. Would China sink a small convoy of US, ANZAC, Indian, and European freighters?

In any event, the rest of the world would stop trade with China and seize assets.

[Michael Sanches + 187]

Actually, if China decides to take Taiwan, it will be by #1. They will secretly build 200 missiles with neutron warheads. They would hit the major cities, the military posts, and the invasion beaches.

They would figure that they would be a pariah <20 years.

[frankfurter + 562]

Why and how will be interesting debates. Given the US wants now to arm TW with nuclear-capable, offensive weaponry, the spark to a war may come soon. May God forbid (whatever you may conceive him/her to be).

Whether China could take TW is not the question. Even if China attempts this, the question is: would the US send forces to strike or counter strike?  Thus the key question is: would America's citizens willingly support their military engaging in a war over an island not part of the USA, of a people not historically or racially integral to USA, and apparently of zero value economically? Such war would pit 2 nuclear powers against each other, and both have the capability to destroy the earth more than 1x over.

So far, the responses here indicate the pro war supporters heavily outweigh the cons.

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, frankfurter said:

Given the US wants now to arm TW with nuclear-capable, offensive weaponry, the spark to a war may come soon.

 

 

Cuba missile crisis version 2.0

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

6 hours ago, frankfurter said:

So far, the responses here indicate the pro war supporters heavily outweigh the cons.

I dont think that is the case at all, certainly not nuclear war which is what you kept asking Americans

[Gingerbread 0]

On 11/8/2020 at 9:26 AM, frankfurter said:

Ongly Israel dragon with UK Beast and USA katholic frogs make hell in the world. Last 700 years.
 

it was The high educated astronomy workers from kingdoms betwin Turkey and China WHO find Jesus from Israel dragon for 2020 years ago.

 

On 11/8/2020 at 9:26 AM, frankfurter said:

western pirates just stolen porsline and rape and slave other etnicity in some blind believe. This people will never c e to heaven and like Trump will die in virus and other poison becouse not lissening to high educated people.

China have make Education, medicine, food and farming since Eve eat the Apple.

 

On 11/8/2020 at 9:26 AM, frankfurter said:

 

 

 

[JoMack + 549]

China will take Taiwan as they did in Hong Kong.  A lot of chest thumping at the Pentagon, Feinstein will be clutching at her pearls, and McConnell will be yelling that the U.S. must go in, but Biden will be in his basement holding on to his mask with a firm grip.  At that point, he might also be sucking his thumb.  If Taiwan can protect itself, it better gear up and soon.

[frankfurter + 562]

1 hour ago, JoMack said:

China will take Taiwan as they did in Hong Kong.  A lot of chest thumping at the Pentagon, Feinstein will be clutching at her pearls, and McConnell will be yelling that the U.S. must go in, but Biden will be in his basement holding on to his mask with a firm grip.  At that point, he might also be sucking his thumb.  If Taiwan can protect itself, it better gear up and soon.

Take it for granted; any war against China will be nuclear. May we infer from your comment, you would be unwilling to see America enter a nuclear war?

[Michael Sanches + 187]

O.K., to answer your question, it depends on Chinese actions:

 

1. China nukes and obliterates Taiwan. No, the US will not retaliate. China will be isolated for 20 years and gain nothing.

2. China initiates nuclear war against US to prevent US from intervening in Taiwan. Yes, the US will retaliate and go to war with China.

3. China tries to invade Taiwan with conventional  weapons, only. This invasion will fail miserably, so US doesn't need to intervene.

4. China secretly builds an armada of neutron bombs and wipes out the people of Taiwan, leaving the infrastructure intact. US would accept fait accompli and China will accept 20 years of isolation.

5. China strikes Taiwan with EMPs. Depends. Democrat administration would probably do nothing and conventional invasion of Taiwan may succeed, depending on how hardened the Taiwanese military is and how fanatical the populace is. Republican administration would send help and then the ball is back in China's court - do they sink the freighters? If they do, the US will respond with conventional weapons.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

Obviously @frankfurter is a tool of the CCP which to his credit he's never denied. China is looking for a pretext for a preemptive attack on the United States and conversations such as these are meant to bolster that. They are counting on their "Mandarin Candidate" Joe Biden to be holding office and the keys to the nuclear codes. Since he was the only one to refuse to go along with the Bin Laden raid, it stands to reason he won't be able to pull the much bigger trigger against China (let alone their tremendous cache of blackmail material against him). They could win with just a few nukes taking out cities like Houston but leaving New York and Los Angeles alone. Our military would be apoplectic but it would take a military coup to override the civilian authority and China is counting on that not happening. Russia would play along to the extent that they'd threaten retaliation because of nukes landing south of their border and the ensuing fallout. I'm sure this whole scenario has been war gamed by both parties. Maybe they've got a 70% chance of success. To their military that's totally worth it. 

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

I actually agree: China is actively planning an attack against the U.S. 

As you know, I think we're in one: against the CCP VIRUS. 

The next one will be conventional warfare, unless they have Covid-20 on the laboratory bench. 

I wake up every morning and am surprised that Mr. Trump hasn't pulled the trigger. On January 10, 2020, someone alerted Mr. Trump and he closed down incoming air traffic from China. He had the info then that President Xi had known about the virus's person-to-person contagion since Christmas Day. As you recall, this was quite a show, with the CDC (Redfield) and the NIH (Fauci) going on national TV urging ordinary Americans to NOT wear masks. Then shifting stance. If Mr. Trump had just said, the hell with it, this is biological warfare, and started a conventional war at that point the current election would be for show only. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

5 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

If Mr. Trump had just said, the hell with it, this is biological warfare, and started a conventional war at that point the current election would be for show only. 

Your revisionist history is laughable, at that time trump was calling covid a flu that will disappear like a miracle, not claiming it was an act of war.

There would have been no election during a world war.  Crybabies you lost the election, don't make the world even worse in a tantrum.  If you need a war do it internally while the rest of us watch you destroy yourselves.

 

[Michael Sanches + 187]

12 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

They could win with just a few nukes taking out cities like Houston but leaving New York and Los Angeles alone. Our military would be apoplectic but it would take a military coup to override the civilian authority and China is counting on that not happening.

I disagree. Nuking "smaller" cities, like Houston will not only cause huge casualties, but many times the casualties in fallout. Retaliation would occur. It doesn't help to kill only 10 million with nuclear bombs if another 100 million die due to fallout, disease, and economic disruption.

If this were to happen, the people on our nuclear submarines would lose massive amounts of family members. I would bet a 95% chance of at least 1 retaliating with its 288 nuclear warheads retaliating without permission.

Also, remember, nuking Houston will cause an EMP in the rest of Texas, as well as the neighbor states. No electronics for hundreds of miles from Houston. Remember, the 1962 nuclear blast on Johnston Atoll  (Starfish Prime) not only knocked out the street lights in Hawaii 900 miles away, but also knocked out 3 satellites in orbit, all due to the EMP side effect.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

7 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

I disagree. Nuking "smaller" cities, like Houston will not only cause huge casualties, but many times the casualties in fallout. Retaliation would occur. It doesn't help to kill only 10 million with nuclear bombs if another 100 million die due to fallout, disease, and economic disruption.

If this were to happen, the people on our nuclear submarines would lose massive amounts of family members. I would bet a 95% chance of at least 1 retaliating with its 288 nuclear warheads retaliating without permission.

Also, remember, nuking Houston will cause an EMP in the rest of Texas, as well as the neighbor states. No electronics for hundreds of miles from Houston. Remember, the 1962 nuclear blast on Johnston Atoll  (Starfish Prime) not only knocked out the street lights in Hawaii 900 miles away, but also knocked out 3 satellites in orbit, all due to the EMP side effect.

How would the nuclear submarines even know what happened? I'd meant to mention EMP Blast before, thanks for bringing it up. China could almost win with a preemptive EMP strike. Yes, they'd be a pariah nation for a time, but they'd be looked at as a superpower, which is their ultimate goal. Now look at BRI as straight up colonialism and no one to stop them. 

[frankfurter + 562]

19 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

I disagree. Nuking "smaller" cities, like Houston will not only cause huge casualties, but many times the casualties in fallout. Retaliation would occur. It doesn't help to kill only 10 million with nuclear bombs if another 100 million die due to fallout, disease, and economic disruption.

If this were to happen, the people on our nuclear submarines would lose massive amounts of family members. I would bet a 95% chance of at least 1 retaliating with its 288 nuclear warheads retaliating without permission.

Also, remember, nuking Houston will cause an EMP in the rest of Texas, as well as the neighbor states. No electronics for hundreds of miles from Houston. Remember, the 1962 nuclear blast on Johnston Atoll  (Starfish Prime) not only knocked out the street lights in Hawaii 900 miles away, but also knocked out 3 satellites in orbit, all due to the EMP side effect.

Interesting. uhhhh, the question is whether Americans would go to war over Taiwan; not whether Americans would go to war if America were attacked.  The former has doubt; the latter is certain. 

[frankfurter + 562]

On 11/20/2020 at 5:26 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

I actually agree: China is actively planning an attack against the U.S. 

As you know, I think we're in one: against the CCP VIRUS. 

The next one will be conventional warfare, unless they have Covid-20 on the laboratory bench. 

I wake up every morning and am surprised that Mr. Trump hasn't pulled the trigger. On January 10, 2020, someone alerted Mr. Trump and he closed down incoming air traffic from China. He had the info then that President Xi had known about the virus's person-to-person contagion since Christmas Day. As you recall, this was quite a show, with the CDC (Redfield) and the NIH (Fauci) going on national TV urging ordinary Americans to NOT wear masks. Then shifting stance. If Mr. Trump had just said, the hell with it, this is biological warfare, and started a conventional war at that point the current election would be for show only. 

Are you saying Trump, Fauci et al were mistaken, negligent, or incompetent? 

China planning to attack USA?  Your hysteria is getting the better of you, again. Or, is it neurosis?

You refuse to accept the 1st isolation of the covid in humans occurred in the USA and was patented in 2007. Now, who has the largest, most extensive, most distributed bio-warfare labs across the planet?  Hint: not China. Also, you refuse to accept the research results of highly reputable scientists in Europe, who conclude the covid was present very long before the outbreak in China. The study of psychiatry has classified people who twist reality into what their minds hold to be reality.

Back to topic: I see you support a war over Taiwan.

[JoMack + 549]

China is getting ready to sit on Biden's lap, or he on their's.  The Emperor with No Clothes is a pawn of China and they ate about 50% of our economy, now they'll eat the rest since Biden will give them America on a silver platter.

[frankfurter + 562]

27 minutes ago, JoMack said:

China is getting ready to sit on Biden's lap, or he on their's.  The Emperor with No Clothes is a pawn of China and they ate about 50% of our economy, now they'll eat the rest since Biden will give them America on a silver platter.

uh, the topic is whether you would support the US going to war over TW against a nuclear foe.
Re your post, you imply Biden would not support. But this assumes Biden will be sufficiently lucid to command during his entire term. This is likely a big assumption, given his declining cognitive abilities, Biden's announcements are proving he intends fully to stack his cabinet with the old guard members. That means Hillary will be in charge, and she is itching still for yet another war. The 'AsianPivot' is her baby. Or could she be bought also? An interesting speculation.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, JoMack said:

China is getting ready to sit on Biden's lap, or he on their's.  The Emperor with No Clothes is a pawn of China and they ate about 50% of our economy, now they'll eat the rest since Biden will give them America on a silver platter.

Whew!  Good thing he's not going to be president. 

 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 11/13/2020 at 4:18 PM, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

Xi is a billionaire.  Billionaires don't care if soldiers die.
But billionaires don't want their family and their property to be destroyed.
They don't want to live in an underground bunker until they run out of food/water.
If one million Chinese soldiers die in war, Xi will still not initiate a nuclear strike.
Soldier lives don't matter.  Billionaire lives matter.

Mr Osas, never under-estimate the stupidity of politicians, especially ones that are "elected" for life. Remember Hitler? Well Xitler no different. That is why American and allied forces are pouring enormous amount of weapons and soldiers into Asia. If China wants war and gets humiliated again, it will be thanks to Mr Xi alone. China is unfortunate with both it's geography and it's history. The West has accommodated their demands for 40 years and shown great patience. China must stop behaving like a teenage boy who has just got the car keys from his father. The West has lost patience. Time for China to grow up or get a boot up the butt. I do not like it when China sails her Navy in hostile fashion between Australia and Indonesia, and I am sure they do not like it when the US Navy sails through the Taiwan Strait. However, the geography of this region requires co-operation and restraint as it pertains to energy security and food security, not to mention general trade. It is China who decided they were not happy with the "status quo" and feels humiliated when the West has done nothing but honour the Chinese dream to become a great nation again. The CCP need to get rid of Mr Xi before his ego cost them all their lives. Maybe it is not Mr Xi that wants war. Perhaps it is the Generals? Either way, they are skating on thin ice now. I think they have painted themselves into a corner from which they cannot escape and that is why they are lashing out now. As I say, the geography of Asia is not compatible with peace whenever one power becomes too much greater than another. Rather than dwell on the past, China should learn from it. If they try to invade Japan, they will become Japan if you know what I mean? The West is here to stay, whether they like it or not. Let us pray that the CCP learn to be grateful for what they have and stop asking "more please"?