ronwagn

ICE Engines Hear to Stay Regardless of War Against

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On 12/10/2020 at 10:52 AM, Rob Kramer said:

Have you ever replaced an ICE engine? Especially a modern one? When I worked at Hyundai I could have a elantra engine out in 3hrs other guys 2 hrs. The warranty engine replacement pays 8.5hrs to remove engine swap everything onto a short block and reinstall.  Generally took me 9hr but most guys beat 8.5 .... its really a peice of cake with proper tools . Same job on customer pay is 14 hours. Thats from diagnosis to final test drive. Just saying for a engine to last 300k and be in and out in 6hr as a long block is really good. Now do a chev diesel and have to do cab off or something and your doubling the time but its all relative . 

Edit: admittedly I haven't worked on pure EV. but I can also tell you there's plenty of DIY guys who won't buy them cause they can't fix them.

There are three moving parts in an electric motor and no accessories to swap. If it were equally easy to access the electric motor, I'd be surprised if it took more than an hour to swap one.

The electric motors will not be easily accessible because they're too reliable for that to matter. Again, three moving parts. Designing an ICE to last 500k miles is a bear of a problem. Designing an electric motor to last 1.5 million miles is trivially easy.

In general, it's easy to make electronic components that last 10X as long as mechanical components. When all the mechanical bits in your drivetrain turn into electrical components, maintenance, reliability, and longevity issues effectively disappear.

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On 12/10/2020 at 3:41 PM, Rob Kramer said:

I have a question about this. So if Tesla makes the car for a profit that means it has margins on sales . If it also makes software and hardware why would tesla sell the cars going for self driving taxi? Why wouldn't they just create the app the joins the payee and car and locations . Same question with the semi trucks. If your sales margin is 2-10k why sell a truck that can do 1k/ week in deliveries? Insurance is yourself just need a pile of cash and replacement vehicles easy for tesla. And there's never plant downtime. Can self advertise the system for free. Like why sell self diving cars . Its essentially selling a cheap slave for little to no profit . 

Tesla would be able to undercut the entire taxi uber delivery transportation system. If say in trucking a trucker can lower fuel cost , eliminate a 40/yr job and the service and insurance industry. Taxi: fuel driver insurance and repair savings per car per year: 2k +40k + 1k +1k $ saved per year . 44k plus the business income. 

Tesla has discussed doing exactly this.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

The automotive industry is mostly incapable of doing this.

I don't know about US companies such as Ford or GM but most European mainstream car manufacturers  are already manufacturing equivalent cars to Tesla with the comparable sophistication, performance and price bracket that Tesla are doing. 

Maybe Tesla are still a year or two ahead of the curve and have some amazing new tech coming down the pipe, who knows? I'm sure Musk wont be slow in telling the world what is round the corner thats for sure.

I dont know about the US but in Europe Tesla is still a very new brand and the car manufacturers that stand for quality i.e Audi, BMW. Mercedes etc  are still massively trusted and they arent slow in developing their own fleet of EV's/hybrids.

My original point was dont right these guys off just yet, competition is a good thing and will ultimately reduce cost to the consumer. I think Tesla have done an amazing job and continue to be innovative which is great as its pushing everyone else to do the same, if they don't they'll go bust.

The Audi below is on sale now, as is the Porsche Taycan for example, I think the engineering is none too shabby, but is already out of date, however they along with their rivals will have far greater mileage per charge in the very near future.

https://www.driving.co.uk/news/2020-audi-e-tron-gt-price-specs-release-date/

 

 

Edited by Rob Plant
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2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

The Audi below is on sale now, as is the Porsche Taycan for example, I think the engineering is none too shabby, but is already out of date, however they along with their rivals will have far greater mileage per charge in the very near future.

https://www.driving.co.uk/news/2020-audi-e-tron-gt-price-specs-release-date/

That is a sweet looking ride.

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(edited)

5 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

There are three moving parts in an electric motor and no accessories to swap. If it were equally easy to access the electric motor, I'd be surprised if it took more than an hour to swap one.

The electric motors will not be easily accessible because they're too reliable for that to matter. Again, three moving parts. Designing an ICE to last 500k miles is a bear of a problem. Designing an electric motor to last 1.5 million miles is trivially easy.

In general, it's easy to make electronic components that last 10X as long as mechanical components. When all the mechanical bits in your drivetrain turn into electrical components, maintenance, reliability, and longevity issues effectively disappear.

That doesn't matter tho. The engines we were replacing had premature failures from manufacturing errors. Recalls.  You don't need more km than an engine can do. Most cars are scrapped at 350k km. But I've seen plenty of cars that go past 500k km (an area few owners want the discomfort of owning) toyota corolla easily max out their dash odometer. 

So back on track. Please tell all the small car owners that their 18k$ car is now 50k$ (plus tax 13%)  goes less far. Can't charge in their apartment parking spot,losses up to 39% distance in the cold and 4% a year battery life. My brother had a Teacher with a Leaf with 40km distance left on the battery. After a bunch of years. Edit : on an Hyundai EV advertisement on FB i saw ppl saying they had theirs a yr and in the cold lost significant distance.  Think they were saying 319km per charge. Wouldn't get me and the fam to a non covid Christmas nevermind that there isn't an EV that can fit a fam of 5 for camping and tow a jetski a normal distance. 

I've SEEN people trade in cars because they can't afford brakes a few flushes ext. Say an 1,100$ bill . Used car guy walks out does a once over looks at the maintenance being recommended walks back in they say park it and 2 days later its on the lot and they drive away in a new one because with trade in and extended payments its the same monthly bill.and 2 years later they'll roll that bill onto anothers. Not onto a 50k base tho. 

But ya theres plenty of ppl wanting to try EV and plenty of government arm twisting in fuel tax and laws. So no doubt it'll still be a growing market. 

Edited by Rob Kramer

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Some valid points @Rob Kramer particularly on large family size, towing capabilities and also weather conditions MUST be a factor.

However this might make the EV a far more popular choice based on the price tag for lower income families though and make the EV mainstream.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Teslas-25000-Car-May-Hit-The-Market-Sooner-Than-Planned.html

You have next to nothing on fuel costs so probably save $2000 per year (depending on your commute), and servicing should be cheap as very few parts to actually go wrong.

Nissan Leaf is probably a very bad example as the tech is ancient and the battery poor. A decent Tesla at $25K may well be worth a punt for most people who don't live in -35 degree winters. Bonus on some EV's is that in winter months you can defrost your car by using an app on your phone so its frost free and nice and warm when you get in.

Re-sale value I agree may not be comparable with an ICE vehicle due to battery life diminishing.

You can of course lease them which negates the problem.

Give it 5-10 years and EV's/Hybrids will be everywhere.

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1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Some valid points @Rob Kramer particularly on large family size, towing capabilities and also weather conditions MUST be a factor.

However this might make the EV a far more popular choice based on the price tag for lower income families though and make the EV mainstream.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Teslas-25000-Car-May-Hit-The-Market-Sooner-Than-Planned.html

You have next to nothing on fuel costs so probably save $2000 per year (depending on your commute), and servicing should be cheap as very few parts to actually go wrong.

Nissan Leaf is probably a very bad example as the tech is ancient and the battery poor. A decent Tesla at $25K may well be worth a punt for most people who don't live in -35 degree winters. Bonus on some EV's is that in winter months you can defrost your car by using an app on your phone so its frost free and nice and warm when you get in.

Re-sale value I agree may not be comparable with an ICE vehicle due to battery life diminishing.

You can of course lease them which negates the problem.

Give it 5-10 years and EV's/Hybrids will be everywhere.

I agree they'll be everywhere and sales will only go up. No arguments from me there. And true the leaf isn't as good in tech. But the same issue exists.  Batteries do degrade. And electric heat uses alot of battery while driving in snowing or cold weather not connected to a house. There not using waste heat. So tire blockage like slush and heating is additional fuel use. At a normal family Christmas we go 200km both ways. So need 400km in cold (not that hard) but can't connect 10 EV at once while running x mas lights heaters hot tub interior cooking ect . Don't forget Ontario is putting 15$ mcf carbon tax on gas thats 3$/mcf in 10 years. So electric heating the home also by the time were all in EV . So electricity will go up delivery is going up  2.30$/month for every year for 4 years plus electricity rates have went up almost yearly . So large demand will speed that up with renewable and carbon taxes on nat gas plants. Just expensive energy will be the theme. And "don't put up my bill here" will be a thing.

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On 12/14/2020 at 9:56 PM, ronwagn said:

California pays double for energy. We don't want to pay double in the rest of the country. Politicians make a stupid mistake when they think they can eliminate fossil fuels. Don't you agree? You are not that stupid. 

According to this web site:

https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

The U.S. average rate is 13.19 cents/kWh. The California rate is 19.39 cents/kWh.   Californians on average pay about 1.47 times as much as the national average, not twice as much.  This is still far too much.

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7 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

According to this web site:

https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

The U.S. average rate is 13.19 cents/kWh. The California rate is 19.39 cents/kWh.   Californians on average pay about 1.47 times as much as the national average, not twice as much.  This is still far too much.

On top of reliability issues. Its another thing it it was the best system .

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On 1/13/2021 at 8:14 AM, Rob Kramer said:

That doesn't matter tho. The engines we were replacing had premature failures from manufacturing errors. Recalls.  You don't need more km than an engine can do. Most cars are scrapped at 350k km. But I've seen plenty of cars that go past 500k km (an area few owners want the discomfort of owning) toyota corolla easily max out their dash odometer.

If I understand this correctly, you're claiming that the simplicity of electric motors is not relevant to manufacturing defects and recalls. Are you certain that's the argument you want to make?

 

On 1/13/2021 at 8:14 AM, Rob Kramer said:

So back on track. Please tell all the small car owners that their 18k$ car is now 50k$ (plus tax 13%)  goes less far. Can't charge in their apartment parking spot,losses up to 39% distance in the cold and 4% a year battery life. My brother had a Teacher with a Leaf with 40km distance left on the battery. After a bunch of years. Edit : on an Hyundai EV advertisement on FB i saw ppl saying they had theirs a yr and in the cold lost significant distance.  Think they were saying 319km per charge. Wouldn't get me and the fam to a non covid Christmas nevermind that there isn't an EV that can fit a fam of 5 for camping and tow a jetski a normal distance.

You appear not to have kept up with EV performance since about 2015. You've definitely not kept up with what's coming down the R&D pipeline in the next 3-5 years.

And again, you're pulling examples from legacy automakers, who have their heads too far up their arses to make EVs work. If you want to have this discussion, first study Tesla's current technology and future plans. Sandy Munroe's teardown videos ("Munroe Live" on Youtube) and interviews are particularly enlightening, as was Tesla's recent "battery day" announcements. If you can figure out where Tesla is going with all the improvements they're making, you'll have an idea what's going on.

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52 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

If I understand this correctly, you're claiming that the simplicity of electric motors is not relevant to manufacturing defects and recalls. Are you certain that's the argument you want to make?

 

You appear not to have kept up with EV performance since about 2015. You've definitely not kept up with what's coming down the R&D pipeline in the next 3-5 years.

And again, you're pulling examples from legacy automakers, who have their heads too far up their arses to make EVs work. If you want to have this discussion, first study Tesla's current technology and future plans. Sandy Munroe's teardown videos ("Munroe Live" on Youtube) and interviews are particularly enlightening, as was Tesla's recent "battery day" announcements. If you can figure out where Tesla is going with all the improvements they're making, you'll have an idea what's going on.

My ice gets me from a to b just fine. I'll leave it there.  I don't care to know tesla inside and out. You can call every oem dumb . I have no horse in the race. My horse is in the oil race for a set ammount of time that doesn't factor tesla or EV's in. My opinion of EV is low. Have a good night . 

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On 1/13/2021 at 1:45 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

According to this web site:

https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

The U.S. average rate is 13.19 cents/kWh. The California rate is 19.39 cents/kWh.   Californians on average pay about 1.47 times as much as the national average, not twice as much.  This is still far too much.

The weather is so nice in Calif that even though they have higher electricity rates they rank 13th in cost per month. Location, location, location. 
largely the disdain for high electricity prices in Calif is political rhetoric. 
Texas electricity for example is cheaper but much hotter resulting in higher monthly bills.

It will be interesting to see what these new battery installations do the the price of electricity in Calif. Then, will Biden push battery storage? 

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If super charging stations become widespread and you can charge 80% of your battery in 10 minutes. Will range even matter much for most. This would open up the market for larger heavier vehicals that hold 5 and pull a boat. 

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3 hours ago, Boat said:

If super charging stations become widespread and you can charge 80% of your battery in 10 minutes. Will range even matter much for most. This would open up the market for larger heavier vehicals that hold 5 and pull a boat. 

Battery charging time is limited by the battery chemistry, even if the entire rest of the system were unlimited. Each individual battery cell of that chemistry has the same minimum time to charge, whether it's in a cell phone or an EV. The current "best" EV battery is Li-ion, and you cannot charge that cell from 0% to 80% in ten minutes, or even in 40 minutes. You can charge it from 0% to 50% in (maybe) ten minutes, but you must slow down after that.  We need better chemistry to get to 80% in ten minutes, or we need batteries so cheap that you will have long range when charged to 50%: a "1000-mile battery" that you only charge to 500 miles when you are in a hurry. So, on your 1300 mile vacation trip from NYC to Miami, you start with a 1000-mile (slow-charged) battery and drive to Jacksonville, where you spend 10 minutes to charge back up to 500 miles, and then proceed. Note that 500 miles is 125 kWh: in 10 minutes you are charging your magical battery with a magical supercharger at 750 kW, or 3 times more than today's V3 supercharger.

OK, back to reality. I have a model Y "long range". According to the route planner at Tesla.com, I will need to stop and recharge 8 times to get from NYC to Miami using today's superchargers. Times will vary from 40 minutes to 55 minutes. This more or less matches the stops for meals and a motel, unless you use two drivers and drive through the night.

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On 1/13/2021 at 1:45 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

According to this web site:

https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

The U.S. average rate is 13.19 cents/kWh. The California rate is 19.39 cents/kWh.   Californians on average pay about 1.47 times as much as the national average, not twice as much.  This is still far too much.

I said energy, not electricity. Gasoline, diesel, and natural gas for homes is all far more expensive, partially due to taxes. https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/ 

You are right about the percentage however!

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Let me just point out that the peak in oil demand because of EVs does not mean the end of the oil age, nor does it have to mean some very low oil prices.

We are talking about a raw material whose conventional resources are more and more difficult to find, and some 10-15 years ago the peak of conventional oil production took place. Of course, then there were shale oil and Canadian oil, there is also oil from the deepwater oil, arctic oil, but in general, apart from countries such as Iran and Venezuela, the world is gradually switching from the cheapest conventional deposits to unconventional ones that have a higher production cost, and it seems that it is the inevitable process.

If we are talking about electric cars, I personally live in a country where the temperature in winter falls below zero and you need to use heating, and air conditioning in summer. In addition, if I'm going on a business trip, it is often 400-500 kilometers one way. As in my example how petrol engine will work, and how an electric car, assuming that I dont want to refuel or charge my car too often.

 
 
 
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On 1/13/2021 at 7:13 PM, Rob Kramer said:

On top of reliability issues. Its another thing it it was the best system .

In CA, we had reliability issues leading to rolling blackouts in 2001. This was self-inflicted as part of an attempt to shift to a less-regulated electricity market. We had no further rolling blackouts until 2020. In 2020, we had  two days with rolling blackouts due to poor planning and an unprecedented heat wave. These affected 800,000 customers and lasted less than one hour for any one customer.  This is not as much "reliability"-related outage as I was used to in Virginia.

In addition, we have outages related to extreme weather: fire weather in our case. It is also self-inflicted to some extent, as it would be possible to mitigate some of it. These weather-related outages are much shorter and much less extensive than weather-related outages on the East coast and gulf coast related to hurricanes. So, on balance, I have more reliable electricity here than I did on the DC suburbs.

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