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United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place

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U.S. LNG Exports Hit Record High In November

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 16, 2020, 2:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-LNG-Exports-Hit-Record-High-In-November.html

Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) out of the United States hit an all-time high in November due to recovering global gas demand and prices and unplanned outages at LNG export facilities outside the U.S., the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. 

According to EIA estimates, the U.S. exported a total of 9.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG in November 2020, beating the previous record set in January 2020, when exports totaled 8.1 Bcf/d.

The U.S. LNG exports last month accounted for 93 percent of peak LNG export capacity utilization, the EIA said.

For most of the spring and summer of this year, American LNG exports were low, and they even hit their lowest volume in 26 months during the summer due to depressed demand with lockdowns all over the world.

Earlier this year, when demand for natural gas across the world plunged due to the pandemic, buyers began to cancel cargo loadings of U.S. LNG, as gas in storage from Europe to Asia was abundant after a milder winter and the coronavirus that wiped out a lot of previously expected demand.

In July, U.S. LNG exports crashed by more than 50 percent compared to January due to historically low natural gas prices from Asia to Europe and lower demand in the pandemic. U.S. LNG export capacity was utilized at less than 50 percent in June, July, and August 2020.

American LNG exports have steadily grown since the summer, to reach a record in November, the EIA said today.

Higher prices in Asia and Europe with recovering demand, as well as unplanned outages at export facilities in Australia, Qatar, Norway, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago, contributed to higher U.S. exports in recent months. U.S. LNG export facilities returning from shut-downs during hurricanes and higher total LNG export capacity were the other factors helping exports hit a record high, the EIA said.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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An Under-The-Radar Opportunity In LNG

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 17, 2020, 1:00 PM CST

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/An-Under-The-Radar-Opportunity-In-LNG.html

2020-12-17_w7kdutvmjq.jpg

Natural gas production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, including in the United States, could get a boost from a relatively new and not-so-self-evident revenue stream—the global shipping industry.   Driven by stricter sulfur emissions standards and the ongoing global drive towards a lower-carbon future, the world’s top shipping operators and manufacturers are raising the share of vessels in the fleet powered by alternative fuels. LNG has so far emerged as the top choice among fuels alternative to marine gasoil and low-sulfur fuel oil to power ships, paving the way for another growth opportunity for the natural gas and LNG industries.

Stricter Sulfur Content Rules In Shipping

According to the new rules by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), only 0.5-percent or lower sulfur fuel oil should be used on ships beginning January 1, 2020, unless said ships have installed the so-called scrubbers—systems that remove sulfur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers—so they can continue to use high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO).

Basically, the shipping industry has three choices in light of this regulation—install the scrubbers, use the more expensive low-sulfur fuel oil, or switch to alternative fuels, including LNG.  

Last year, the shipping industry and oil refiners, traders, and buyers were bracing for what was expected to be “the single largest oil market disruptor.”

Little did they know, or anyone else for that matter, that the single-largest oil market disruptor would be a global health emergency in 2020.

The pandemic, however, accelerated calls for decarbonization and all industries, including the shipping sector, came under further pressure to reduce emissions.  

LNG Tops Alternative Marine Fuel Choices Maritime transport is essential to the global economy, transporting more than 80 percent of the volume of international trade and more than 70 percent of its value, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The IMO’s goal is to have the shipping industry’s greenhouse gas emissions reduced by at least 50 percent by 2050 compared to 2008. The shipping industry currently accounts for around 2.7 percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, according to an overview by Shell.

As ship owners and operators look to cut emissions, they are turning to alternative fuel sources, and LNG is so far the clear favorite to replace sulfur-emitting fuels in shipping.

As much as 27.2 percent of the current ship order book by tonnage is for ships powered by alternative fuels, according to recent research by Clarksons Research, carried by Hellenic Shipping News. LNG-powered vessels account for the biggest share, 13.1 percent, of the alternative fuel uptake in ordered ships. The next largest share of LNG uptake in the global vessel order book is LNG-powered LNG carriers, with 11.5 percent, Clarksons says.

There are currently 227 confirmed new-building orders for LNG-fueled vessels that are not LNG carriers, on top of the 202 already operational LNG-powered ships. Tankers are taking up LNG as an alternative fuel at the fastest pace, with 72 orders on top of the 34 LNG-powered vessels already operating in the global fleet, according to Clarksons.

“LNG’s case as a legitimate “stepping stone” to meet emissions targets is supported by port facility investment,” Stephen Gordon, Managing Director at Clarksons Research, wrote in the report. As many as 124 ports have LNG bunkering facilities, up from 114 at the beginning of this year, and their number is forecast to rise to 170 by 2022, Clarksons said.

Europe’s largest seaport, the port of Rotterdam, for example, supports the uptake of LNG and offers discounts on seaport dues for LNG-powered seagoing tankers and inland vessels with green award certificates.

“Clean ships are now a prime consideration behind every single order,” an executive at the world’s largest shipbuilder, Hyundai Heavy Industries Co, has recently told Costas Paris of The Wall Street Journal.  

LNG was the preferred solution to the 2050 emissions target for 47 percent of respondents in the ABS Future Fuels LinkedIn Survey, while hydrogen was the answer for 40 percent, according to the survey by ABS, a provider of classification and technical advisory services to the marine and offshore industries. Just eight percent opted for ammonia and five percent for methanol as the future fuel for the industry, the survey showed. 

One of the world’s largest container transportation and shipping companies, CMA CGM Group, expects to have 26 LNG-powered containerships by 2022.

The group says that LNG reduces 99 percent of sulfur dioxide and fine particle emissions and 85 percent of nitrogen oxide emissions, and can cut CO2 emissions by up to 20 percent compared with fuel-powered systems.

But Methane Emissions Could Undermine LNG’s Greener Credentials...

While LNG could reduce CO2 emissions, the super-chilled fuel and its entire value chain starting from natural gas production is a methane emitter, which traps 86 times more heat in the atmosphere than the same amount of CO2 over a 20-year time period, the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) said in a report in January 2020. 

Methane emissions from shipping surged by 150 percent between 2012 and 2018, mostly due to the rise of LNG-powered vessels, many of which have engines that allow unburned methane to escape into the atmosphere, ICCT said in August, commenting on an IMO report on greenhouse gas emissions in the industry.

“Methane is not yet regulated by the IMO, but it should be because it has a much stronger global warming potential than CO2,” senior marine researcher Dr. Bryan Comer, who led the review of the study, said in a statement. “We urge IMO to include all greenhouse gases, including methane, in the next phase of the EEDI to limit emissions from new LNG-fueled ships.”   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

 

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LNG Prices Soar To Six-Year High

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 18, 2020, 10:00 AM CST - FRIDAY

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/LNG-Prices-Soar-To-Six-Year-High.html

Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivery in Asia jumped to a six-year high this week as lower-than-normal temperatures in key LNG importers and continued growth in China’s industrial activity boost demand.

Spot LNG prices for January delivery have jumped to over $12 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as a cold snap in parts of the major LNG importers Japan, China, and South Korea raises demand for electricity and heating.

Moreover, China’s industrial output continued to grow in November, also boosting demand for power. 

The prices of LNG in Asia have recovered from less than $2/mmBtu in the spring when the winter heating season had already ended, and the pandemic created a massive oversupply of LNG globally as lockdowns heavily depressed demand for natural gas.  

Last week, spot LNG prices in Asia were estimated at $11.10/ mmBtu, while this week, the price added another $1/mmBtu to the highest level since 2014 and a six-fold surge compared to April lows.

Recent unplanned supply issues at major exporters, including Qatar, Australia, and Norway, are also driving LNG prices higher.

The high LNG prices, however, are forcing some of the more-price-sensitive buyers of spot cargoes to sway away from tenders because of the too high prices.

While LNG prices are on a tear, oil prices were headed to a seventh straight week of gains on Friday, buoyed by vaccine development and the vaccine rollout in major economies, including the United States.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s advisory committee recommended the use of Moderna’s vaccine on Thursday, the FDA said, adding that it would “rapidly work toward finalization and issuance of an emergency use authorization.”

Pfizer is seeking a fast-track approval of its vaccine in Japan.

At 10:08 a.m. ET on Friday, WTI Crude was up 0.58 percent at $48.64 and Brent Crude prices were up 0.37 percent at $51.73.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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On 12/17/2020 at 8:30 AM, ronwagn said:

The worldwide populace chooses natural gas as a clean, abundant and inexpensive fuel of the future. New finds are everywhere. RCW

 

5 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivery in Asia jumped to a six-year high this week as lower-than-normal temperatures in key LNG importers and continued growth in China’s industrial activity boost demand.

All good stuff.. I might point out in passing that Australia is the largest exporter of LNG, from lines in the states of Queensland and Western Australia, having overtaken Qatar late this year. America has some catching up to do but has projects in the pipeline, so to speak, so there will be plenty of supply. I was interested in the prices, though.. this price chart shows that prices have been declining in the last few months (untick the log scale thing, but keep inflation adjusted), albeit off a spike, but I didn't think to look at price futures..  

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Mr. Slawson,

I believe the current numbers put Australia as #1 with >80 mtpa (million tonnes per annum), Qatar at #2 with <80 mtpa, and the US #3  at ~50 mtpa.

There are presently 2 LNG plants under construction in the US ... Golden Pass  and Calcasieu Pass.

GP will produce 18 mtpa and incrementally  come online starting in 2024.

CP will produce 10 mtpa and come online incrementally in 2022.

 

The modular buildout of Calcasieu Pass is being keenly watched in the LNG world as it may offer a glimpse into the future of LNG construction.

Bringing in trains from Avenza,  Italy and cold boxes from Wisconsin is putting this project well ahead of schedule as assembly onsite is proving to be a highly expeditious approach.

The owners of Calcasieu Pass have an identical project - only twice the size -  planned at Plaquemines Parish. (20 mtpa).

This 'cookie cutter' model is being planned for numerous other projects from different owners, but financing is proving to be the big hurdle.

 

Looking ahead, 2 projects alone - Driftwood, 27 mtpa (modular build), and Rio Grande, also 27 mtpa and traditional large train build (~6 mtpa trains) - will vastly increase US output should they come online.

Qatar's proposed expansion, now revised up to ~126  mtpa, is anticipated  to come online about 2027.

 

Consumer demand is on track to expand dramatically.

India, Pakistan, and China are the leading - but far from only - large customers.

Vietnam  is committed to a massive buildout (~15,000 Megawatt) in gas fueled power plants ... comparable to New England's production.

The Combined Cycle Gas Plants will be fueled by LNG ... many via Floating Storage and Regasification Units.

 

What may be somewhat under reported is the rapid growth in the mid scale and small scale markets.

Too many data points to list, but the Wartsilla Compact Reliq units offer one example.

These small, efficient reliquefaction units are going on ships of all sizes to reliquefy Boil Off Gas.

Eventually, some iteration of this hardware will appear at LNG storage terminals worldwide so as to offer near indefinite LNG supply at manageable cost and operational efficiencies.

 

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7 hours ago, markslawson said:

 

All good stuff.. I might point out in passing that Australia is the largest exporter of LNG, from lines in the states of Queensland and Western Australia, having overtaken Qatar late this year. America has some catching up to do but has projects in the pipeline, so to speak, so there will be plenty of supply. I was interested in the prices, though.. this price chart shows that prices have been declining in the last few months (untick the log scale thing, but keep inflation adjusted), albeit off a spike, but I didn't think to look at price futures..  

I am an advocate of increased use of natural gas and that has a great deal of opposition from the Great Reset, Greenie, Climate Change extremists. They are very wealthy and want to become more wealthy by forcing the average person to not use clean, abundant, inexpensive natural gas, or diesel and gasoline. 

The solution is to promote natural gas use! Use for vehicles of all kinds including ships, trucks, cars, buses, trains, heavy equipment etc. That is cleaner and less expensive than the options IMHO. I do not like the looks of wind turbines or solar panels. They require maintenance and create their own pollution. 

The Russians talked Europe out of useing their own natural gas and now are making great profits from their success. They use virtually no "renewables" and must have a great time laughing at us as the Chinese Communists Party does while they burn coal and build more coal plants around the world.  The Great Reset will bury the USA if we let the idiots here run the show. 

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On 12/19/2020 at 6:38 AM, ronwagn said:

I am an advocate of increased use of natural gas and that has a great deal of opposition from the Great Reset, Greenie, Climate Change extremists. They are very wealthy and want to become more wealthy by forcing the average person to not use clean, abundant, inexpensive natural gas, or diesel and gasoline. 

The solution is to promote natural gas use! Use for vehicles of all kinds including ships, trucks, cars, buses, trains, heavy equipment etc. That is cleaner and less expensive than the options IMHO. I do not like the looks of wind turbines or solar panels. They require maintenance and create their own pollution. 

The Russians talked Europe out of useing their own natural gas and now are making great profits from their success. They use virtually no "renewables" and must have a great time laughing at us as the Chinese Communists Party does while they burn coal and build more coal plants around the world.  The Great Reset will bury the USA if we let the idiots here run the show. 

Just to interject some facts into this

Russia didn't talk Europe out of producing its own gas - Norway, the Netherlands and the UK are all major producers . If you are talking about fracking - this simply isn't going to happen underneath heavily populated areas. The fact is Russia is a nearby source of low cost gas and has to date been a reliable supplier even at the height of the cold war. That's why it is purchased. 

In terms of China for all its faults it produces as much of its primary energy in % terms from wind and solar as does the USA and Europe. More than a third of the Worlds deployed wind capacity is in China. It has more solar than the EU and USA combined.  Its installed Hydro capacity is equal to that of the USA, Canada, Brazil and Russia combined. its still building coal plants but then its development path is way behind that of the west. Some of this to replace very inefficient older plant. The new coal build has been significantly reduced. 

Russia is not a great location for either wind or solar. Their renewables path is going to be more focused around Hydro and Biomass. 

Edited by NickW
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On 12/16/2020 at 3:30 PM, ronwagn said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2020/01/26/us-lng-exports-reach-third-place-in-2019-with-much-more-coming/?sh=98d9db95049e

The worldwide populace chooses natural gas as a clean, abundant and inexpensive fuel of the future. New finds are everywhere. RCW

image.png.e28c99556e79e73595f7eeac2a38ab36.png

You cannot call gas from flared wells clean. Kinda like clean coal. Trump speak for give me money for policy in return for support. 
This distorts market costs unfairly for those who do capture and sell their gas.

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On 12/19/2020 at 12:38 AM, ronwagn said:

I am an advocate of increased use of natural gas and that has a great deal of opposition from the Great Reset, Greenie, Climate Change extremists. They are very wealthy and want to become more wealthy by forcing the average person to not use clean, abundant, inexpensive natural gas, or diesel and gasoline. 

The solution is to promote natural gas use! Use for vehicles of all kinds including ships, trucks, cars, buses, trains, heavy equipment etc. That is cleaner and less expensive than the options IMHO. I do not like the looks of wind turbines or solar panels. They require maintenance and create their own pollution. 

This is a well stated summary of affairs.

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8 hours ago, Boat said:

You cannot call gas from flared wells clean. Kinda like clean coal.

I agree with you on that Boat.  Needless flaring of wells is not good for our health.  Coal burning is a major cause of mercury in fish.  I'm keen on not adding toxins to our environment.

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Well some facts about Russia

Currently, in Russia, there are 102 hydropower plants with a capacity of more than 100 MW. The total installed capacity of hydro-power units at Russian HPPs is approximately 45 million kW, whereas generation is approximately 165 billion kWh per annum. HPPs account for 20.6% of Russia's total electricity production.

Taking this into account, Russia is certainly one of the leading producers of green electricity

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4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Well some facts about Russia

Currently, in Russia, there are 102 hydropower plants with a capacity of more than 100 MW. The total installed capacity of hydro-power units at Russian HPPs is approximately 45 million kW, whereas generation is approximately 165 billion kWh per annum. HPPs account for 20.6% of Russia's total electricity production.

Taking this into account, Russia is certainly one of the leading producers of green electricity

Yes and no. They have had hydro since before Dr. Zhivago. It is not new tech. It is green, but required no wind or solar. It is also not as reliable since there are droughts. I am not criticizing their wise decision to not use solar and wind when they have natural gas. I am calling out their hypocrisy in propagandizing against fracking by others. 

Edited by ronwagn
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13 hours ago, NickW said:

Just to interject some facts into this

Russia didn't talk Europe out of producing its own gas - Norway, the Netherlands and the UK are all major producers . If you are talking about fracking - this simply isn't going to happen underneath heavily populated areas. The fact is Russia is a nearby source of low cost gas and has to date been a reliable supplier even at the height of the cold war. That's why it is purchased. 

In terms of China for all its faults it produces as much of its primary energy in % terms from wind and solar as does the USA and Europe. More than a third of the Worlds deployed wind capacity is in China. It has more solar than the EU and USA combined.  Its installed Hydro capacity is equal to that of the USA, Canada, Brazil and Russia combined. its still building coal plants but then its development path is way behind that of the west. Some of this to replace very inefficient older plant. The new coal build has been significantly reduced. 

Russia is not a great location for either wind or solar. Their renewables path is going to be more focused around Hydro and Biomass. 

Russia has carried on a major propaganda campaign, against fracking, in the United States and Europe for a decade. 

FACTS

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/china-worlds-largest-energy-consumer-and-greenhouse-gas-emitter/

Screen Shot 2015-05-20 at 8.46.23 AM

Edited by ronwagn
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13 hours ago, Boat said:

You cannot call gas from flared wells clean. Kinda like clean coal. Trump speak for give me money for policy in return for support. 
This distorts market costs unfairly for those who do capture and sell their gas.

It is as clean as anything else on the market. You are confusing best practices with the product. 

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4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Russia has carried on a major propaganda campaign, against fracking, in the United States and Europe for a decade. 

FACTS

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/china-worlds-largest-energy-consumer-and-greenhouse-gas-emitter/

Screen Shot 2015-05-20 at 8.46.23 AM

Dude, ,2012.... Common man...

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN

figure1.png

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7 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Well some facts about Russia

Currently, in Russia, there are 102 hydropower plants with a capacity of more than 100 MW. The total installed capacity of hydro-power units at Russian HPPs is approximately 45 million kW, whereas generation is approximately 165 billion kWh per annum. HPPs account for 20.6% of Russia's total electricity production.

Taking this into account, Russia is certainly one of the leading producers of green electricity

Geography geography geography.  Only a few nations can actually produce hydropower.  Russia is one such lucky nation. 

Only countries that can still GROW their hydropower potential are Himalaya region, Andes region, with a tiny outlier in the Congo region.   NA/EU/most of Asia is tapped out already

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57 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Not much difference. 

True, but you know the opposition is going to say such wonderous glowing things about that 4%...

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5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Geography geography geography.  Only a few nations can actually produce hydropower.  Russia is one such lucky nation. 

Only countries that can still GROW their hydropower potential are Himalaya region, Andes region, with a tiny outlier in the Congo region.   NA/EU/most of Asia is tapped out already

Nepal has phenomenal potential - at least 65GW but development in Nepal is stymied by the Maoists. 

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4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Not much difference. 

You have to consider that in the context of how much Chinas economy has grown in that period. 

 

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10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Russia has carried on a major propaganda campaign, against fracking, in the United States and Europe for a decade. 

FACTS

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/china-worlds-largest-energy-consumer-and-greenhouse-gas-emitter/

Screen Shot 2015-05-20 at 8.46.23 AM

Whats your evidence for them running a campaign against fracking? Opposition against fracking in Europe has been local and more often than not based on the fact that suitable geology is underneath major urban areas. 

That article just states the bleedin obvious that China with the Worlds biggest population as a country has the highest total Carbon emissions. A far better measure of carbon intensity is carbon emissions per capita . That would paint a different picture. 

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3 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

True, but you know the opposition is going to say such wonderous glowing things about that 4%...

With the economy growing at approx 7% per annum between 2012 and 2019 I would say its pretty impressive they have managed to  significantly reduce the % contribution of coal with oil remaining static. 

Gas consumption has risen a lot from a relatively small base. The rest will be down to improvements in efficiency at varying stages and renewables. A proportion of the new coal build which Ron rabbits on about frequently has been to replace antiquated plant. That may also explain the fall in coal as a % of total. 

The 10 years will be interesting as Chinas economy matures and growth rates slow down. Comnbine that with the falls in costs of solar and wind. 

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For folks wishing to see how this LNG  narrative will play out, the short Reuters article from today, Dec. 22 ("Gazprom losing share in Finland to LNG ...),  provides a glimpse in real time.

Gazprom has already lost 1/3 of its market share in Finland.

In Finland.

Now, most readers here well know the geographic proximty between Finland and Russia,  but - for the American public-school edjumakated audience - they are pretty close to each other.

For those with further interest, checking out the ultra cheap cost to bring in the FSRU into Lithuania (source of the Finn's LNG), might offer a broader perspective to future (and, in Croatia's situation, right now) developments in this natgas/LNG/larger hydrocarbon and energy world in which we all have so much interest.

 

The cost of US LNG is plummeting.

The cost to ship it, store it, and regassify it is plummeting.

 

Ripple on consequences have barely begun to be manifested.

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3 hours ago, Coffeeguyzz said:

For folks wishing to see how this LNG  narrative will play out, the short Reuters article from today, Dec. 22 ("Gazprom losing share in Finland to LNG ...),  provides a glimpse in real time.

Gazprom has already lost 1/3 of its market share in Finland.

In Finland.

Now, most readers here well know the geographic proximty between Finland and Russia,  but - for the American public-school edjumakated audience - they are pretty close to each other.

For those with further interest, checking out the ultra cheap cost to bring in the FSRU into Lithuania (source of the Finn's LNG), might offer a broader perspective to future (and, in Croatia's situation, right now) developments in this natgas/LNG/larger hydrocarbon and energy world in which we all have so much interest.

 

The cost of US LNG is plummeting.

The cost to ship it, store it, and regassify it is plummeting.

 

Ripple on consequences have barely begun to be manifested.

Thats fine. If LNG can out compete piped NG so be it. 

Straight forward economics - not a hodge podge of konspiracy theories

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