Jim Rickards: Brace for a Great Escape from the Dollar and a Flood of Money into Gold and Bitcoin

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Jim Rickards: Brace for a Great Escape from the Dollar and a Flood of Money into Gold and Bitcoin

(17 minutes)

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Harry Dent

In the late 1980s, Dent forecast that the Japanese economy, then the darling of the world, would soon enter a slowdown that would last more than a decade. In the early 1990s, he predicted that the DJIA would reach 10,000. Both of these predictions were met with much skepticism, and yet both eventually came to pass

The basis of Dent's investment thesis, spending wave theory, is that consumer spending related to the generational formation of families has a profound effect on the market value of investments such as financial securities, real estate, and gold. Dent's spending wave theory posits that young adults spend little within the greater economy, and spending increases while they rear children. It peaks as children leave home and then slows during the last 15 years of working life (48-63). According to Dent, the decreased spending patterns of the current generation of US baby boomers entering retirement will cause a pronounced downturn in the greater macroeconomy and an associated decline in the value of financial markets.

Harry Dent: Market Crash Coming in 2-3 Years; Economy ‘Already Dead’

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12/03/harry-dent-market-crash-coming-in-2-3-years-economy-already-dead/

And another round of stimulus won't revive it, the "Contrarian's Contrarian" tells ThinkAdvisor.

Nearly a fifth of public companies are “zombies” propped up by debt, Harry Dent says.

With its “zombie” public companies and small-business failures, the U.S. economy is “dead,” and a second stimulus won’t revive it, Harry S. Dent Jr. argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.

“The Contrarian’s Contrarian,” as Dent is known, forecasts that the pandemic-afflicted U.S. economy, amid an enormous Federal Reserve-created bubble, won’t bottom until 2023.

“The crisis ahead of us is a big detox of the biggest financial drug stimulus in history,” he warns.

The stock market will bottom late in 2022 or early 2023, he predicts. It will be “the lowest stock market of our lifetime.”

Dent, 67, accurately called Japan’s 1989 economic collapse, the dot-com bust and the populist wave that delivered the presidency to Donald Trump. He uses propriety research and bases predictions mainly on demographics and trends....

Harry Dent: Stocks to crash 40% by April and won't rebound for decades, here's why (Pt. 1/2)

~

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Lance Roberts out of Houston, Texas is pretty sharp.  I watch his YouTube occasionally and read some of his stuff.

This article is really good, but it is long.  The concept is worth understanding.

Why The Second Stimulus Won't Have Much Economic Impact

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-second-stimulus-wont-have-much-economic-impact

[[[[  LAST TWO SENTENCES OF ARTICLE...

Due to the debt, demographics, and monetary and fiscal policy failures, the long-term economic growth rate will run well below long-term trends.

Such will ensure the widening of the wealth gap, increases in welfare dependency, and capitalism giving way to socialism.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Tom Nolan

[specinho + 467]

23 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

Harry Dent: Market Crash Coming in 2-3 Years; Economy ‘Already Dead’

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12/03/harry-dent-market-crash-coming-in-2-3-years-economy-already-dead/

And another round of stimulus won't revive it, the "Contrarian's Contrarian" tells ThinkAdvisor.

Stock market started off probably

1. with kind intention of elder generations to share companies' profits with the public, mainly with the not so rich (In South East Asia for example). They let people purchased at very low price e.g. few cents per share and pay them dividends for their investments every quarter...........

2. offered to investors who would like to be partners with capital and get a return on their investments

However, things might have changed in the market........ The younger generations, mostly friends, relatives and distance or not so distance friends of the rich (family usually no need to do any of those to get money they need, hence not commonly involved), who earn easily with granted permission, found ways to skip the routine and skewed from the original purposes........ This video might depict what happens rather well........ Raph breaks the internet

The regulation is so weak that with some companies not earning a penny, stagnant sale, with huge debts, having stock prices sky rocketing........... for what is in question............

The latest concept "too big to fail" requesting bail out trend could be what mega projects world wide are heading to....... Bad example well copied............ (free and easy money for no show after all, some people would do it, no??...............)

People do not know what they are doing or copying is the key culprit (like shown in the video)...........  real estate market is a mess, banking system is a mess, financial market is a mess, economy is a mess, law institution is in much delaying mess, basic concepts are in mess etc............. Whatever can go wrong has gone wrong........ 

Yet, solutions could be obliviously easy............. Like minded of the righteous and kind gather, good things will happen.........  How soon?? ...................

Edited December 25, 2020 by specinho

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 12/24/2020 at 11:02 AM, Tom Nolan said:

Lance Roberts out of Houston, Texas is pretty sharp.  I watch his YouTube occasionally and read some of his stuff.

This article is really good, but it is long.  The concept is worth understanding.

Why The Second Stimulus Won't Have Much Economic Impact

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-second-stimulus-wont-have-much-economic-impact

[[[[  LAST TWO SENTENCES OF ARTICLE...

Due to the debt, demographics, and monetary and fiscal policy failures, the long-term economic growth rate will run well below long-term trends.

Such will ensure the widening of the wealth gap, increases in welfare dependency, and capitalism giving way to socialism.

Sadly people always think that they are the one winning in total (moving up) while others losing in total (moving down). Stock market is the great indicator for this behavior.

IMHO, I think that bit Harry Dent is missing. He didn't take into account the US socialism policies & high taxes that will make the recovery much tougher than in the past, the next US generation will not be able to spend as much as the previous and current generations which will affect world's consumption and the growing of South Asia, South East Asia or Africa. These all are currently in average income trap and wouldn't start from 0 or negative like China or Vietnam before (economics were weak and poor but not much debt back then and there were no form of financial system) unless these got into bankruptcy first, reform the political system or social hierarchy  and rebuild from scratch. Ironically they have very little burden of  existing welfare system.

Edited January 9, 2021 by SUZNV

[surrept33 + 609]

On 1/9/2021 at 12:17 AM, SUZNV said:

Sadly people always think that they are the one winning in total (moving up) while others losing in total (moving down). Stock market is the great indicator for this behavior.

IMHO, I think that bit Harry Dent is missing. He didn't take into account the US socialism policies & high taxes that will make the recovery much tougher than in the past, the next US generation will not be able to spend as much as the previous and current generations which will affect world's consumption and the growing of South Asia, South East Asia or Africa. These all are currently in average income trap and wouldn't start from 0 or negative like China or Vietnam before (economics were weak and poor but not much debt back then and there were no form of financial system) unless these got into bankruptcy first, reform the political system or social hierarchy  and rebuild from scratch. Ironically they have very little burden of  existing welfare system.

What will the world consume? What is useful work? How do people spend their time wisely? 

I think this is all good food for thought - https://www.vox.com/2015/7/27/9038829/automation-myth

Luckily, in the 5 years since that article was written, there has been a lot of progress, particularily with second generation mixed reality. 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

1 hour ago, surrept33 said:

What will the world consume? What is useful work? How do people spend their time wisely? 

I think this is all good food for thought - https://www.vox.com/2015/7/27/9038829/automation-myth

Luckily, in the 5 years since that article was written, there has been a lot of progress, particularily with second generation mixed reality. 

And how many people in US are trying to catch up instead of wasting time in Arts? Majority of US students are afraid of STEM. And even for STEM, . Take Maths as an example, 3rd year and have a paper like "Precalculus" following "Calculus" in an Automation Engineering Degree compares to STEM in university engineering level in UK, EU, Eastern EU, Russia, Canada, Australia, NZ... or even in East, South and South East Asia. The key of spending anyone time wisely is the ability to keep catch up with technology.

IMO, the written Article above is quite shallowing with the  promising of easier life with the assumption it is a peace of cake for people to catch up, less work (therefor learning) and more time enjoying life. That precisely why people move up while other left behind and therefor inequality. I have seen even workers with engineering background are lacking behind with technology if they work the same jobs for more than 10 years.

Actually tech workers in the US are hardest working people and love learning new technology. This makes up for the easier tech courses in college and US companies are really great place that encouraging you to learn and growth, with lots of imbursement and ready to try new tech. However to stay competitive, US corporates and tech workers can terminate the working contract as will. That encourage Corporations feel free to "change the blood" by attracting new talent and discard lag behind one. It is much harder to do so in other countries like EU.

More people in US are more commitment to their job because it provides their family good medical insurance, and they are scared of lagging behind.

When a small portion of people learn hard to keep up while the larger portions are thinking about easier life, less work, a attribute that is built in human nature. And that is the root of inequality in the US.  You cannot ask people to slow down so other won't lag behind. Lots of US youngsters are wasting their time and money with the degrees which offers no skills the industry out there needed. This is a huge waste to society and a burden on welfare and inequality. Being born in the US is a blessing already, do they think if they are lagging behind in the US they can go anywhere else that will pay them more for their skills?

I live in a Engineer tradition family. My mother's dad has an Chemical Engineer Degree from Russia. My Dad has equivalent Master of Electrical Engineer in West Germany with Major Automation and used to open a software company in Vietnam, younger brother has Computer Engineer Degree in Singapore and used to work with AMD, my wife is working in Automation Manufacturing after many industrial certification but I encourage her to complete her Automation Engineer Degree in the US. She has the associate degree and study more after 10 hours of working everyday. I studied in Vietnam, then went to  high school and bachelor of software engineer in top University in NZ and working in the US. I have a bunch of high school friends in Vietnam who are working in Silicon Valley as well (as my high school is school for gifted, top high school in HCM city). Others are working in EU, UK, NZ, Japan etc.

I have friend who can live in the US because his company sponsor, another one migrating to the US and repeat a US IT degree and then joined Amazon. I was helping one of my Vietnamese student for his interview for AMZ internship  ( US born, who I taught Vietnamese to in temple).

If you really want to learn into this matter, try to read Article from a Tech blog, tech Expat or something like that, at least someone who works in tech  inside and outside US, not from a random journalist article you google to make your point. Read the author background first and preferably not someone write for hire.

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by SUZNV

[surrept33 + 609]

18 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

And how many people in US are trying to catch up instead of wasting time in Arts? Majority of US students are afraid of STEM. And even for STEM, . Take Maths as an example, 3rd year and have a paper like "Precalculus" following "Calculus" in an Automation Engineering Degree compares to STEM in university engineering level in UK, EU, Eastern EU, Russia, Canada, Australia, NZ... or even in East, South and South East Asia. The key of spending anyone time wisely is the ability to keep catch up with technology.

IMO, the written Article above is quite shallowing with the  promising of easier life with the assumption it is a peace of cake for people to catch up, less work (therefor learning) and more time enjoying life. That precisely why people move up while other left behind and therefor inequality. I have seen even workers with engineering background are lacking behind with technology if they work the same jobs for more than 10 years.

Actually tech workers in the US are hardest working people and love learning new technology. This makes up for the easier tech courses in college and US companies are really great place that encouraging you to learn and growth, with lots of imbursement and ready to try new tech. However to stay competitive, US corporates and tech workers can terminate the working contract as will. That encourage Corporations feel free to "change the blood" by attracting new talent and discard lag behind one. It is much harder to do so in other countries like EU.

More people in US are more commitment to their job because it provides their family good medical insurance, and they are scared of lagging behind.

When a small portion of people learn hard to keep up while the larger portions are thinking about easier life, less work, a attribute that is built in human nature. And that is the root of inequality in the US.  You cannot ask people to slow down so other won't lag behind. Lots of US youngsters are wasting their time and money with the degrees which offers no skills the industry out there needed. This is a huge waste to society and a burden on welfare and inequality. Being born in the US is a blessing already, do they think if they are lagging behind in the US they can go anywhere else that will pay them more for their skills?

I think the main problem is not enough new jobs are being created, and the cost of education (theoretically, it should cost considerably less as you need less physical space to educate, and professors can just prerecord lectures). 

I think this is fascinating: 

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state

Note, this is after the great automation in the industrial sector in the 1970s which eliminated many jobs.  

Obviously the secretaries got replaced when computers entered the workforce, and word professors and email were invented. 

I think people with CDLs are in trouble because of vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure sensing (IEEE 802.11p and the like), which should make autonomous driving much easier. 

The US does lag significantly in STEM education from what I've seen (and this starts early. if I were a policy maker in education, I'd just copy what singapore does. they literally go around the world and study what works and what doesn't work). But then again, in a more globalized world, things that are associated with liberal arts might actually be selected for. For anyone young, I'd urge them to get a pretty interdisciplinary education and not get too overspecialized (and working in the same field or company, a least in anything in technology for more than X years is self-defeating unless you get exorbitant equity or something). It's ironic because this type of culture is a side effect of the employee labor laws in the California state constitution (from the gold rush days). 

Edited January 26, 2021 by surrept33

[SUZNV + 1,197]

2 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

I think the main problem is not enough new jobs are being created, and the cost of education (theoretically, it should cost considerably less).

I think this is fascinating: 

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state

Note, this is after the great automation in the industrial sector in the 1970s which eliminated many jobs.  

Obviously the secretaries got replaced when computers entered the workforce, and word professors and email were invented. 

I think people with CDLs are in trouble because of vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure sensing (IEEE 802.11p and the like), which should make autonomous driving much easier. 

The US does lag significantly in STEM education from what I've seen (and this starts early. if I were a policy maker in education, I'd just copy what singapore does. they literally go around the world and study what works and what doesn't work). But then again, in a more globalized world, things that are associated with liberal arts might actually be selected for. For anyone young, I'd urge them to get a pretty interdisciplinary education and not get too overspecialized. 

Singapore's only resources are their people, that is the only way to make the most out of their people as a central of trade Japan, Korea, China, South East Asia and ME. US can afford more dynamically use of multi culture. Traditionally US have Jews(finance) and Germany (manufacturing) and UK (management and trade, similar to Singapore).

New jobs are created from the very high tech and in IoT era, it  can be applied to any area, from farming to manufacturing.  Not enough people to turn from technology to application to many areas because they will need some knowledge of multiple industries and the higher the technologies, the more industries involve.

So lack of people to do high skills jobs and to many people compete for general labor jobs. US have too many illegal workers and new immigrants for general labors but not enough people for jobs that requires many year of experiences and interdisciplinary industries. US born citizen has better starting point and should studying harder STEM to move up.

IMHO, because the technology changing so fasts while college degrees are always 4 years, that means in that 4 years every generation of  student will have to learn more and more so no time for interdisciplinary education because at the end of the day, they need a core skill to have a job. Their first job will give them opportunity and vision to choose another  interdisciplinary education. Some of middle managers have 2 or 3 degrees while working. It requires lots of courage to jump from industry to industry to learn but will be very high reward as will have broader vision. But it needs lots of talents to substitute to the space they left behind. At the moment 

But the core of the students beside improving in school, family is an important issue. Teachers have no time to guide every student to stay humble, thirty for knowledge and patient with STEM challenge for better future. It will have to be from family members who can motivate them.  From my observation it will very hard if families don't pay attention to their children, the youngster potential would be waste. Teenage are very hard to guide to the right direction but herding to their friends, trying to be cool and attract more attention and ego oriented.  It got to started from family level, not school level if the goal is removing inequality. I haven't seen social media, mainstream doing good job in this but worst. I am not Christian but from my observation Church at least make people more humble and grateful and lower the ego. I believe the US youngster should be more discipline and appreciate for being born in US and yearn to contribute. The youngster ideology should be I would study hard to provide more to my old and new family, not yelling it is not fair. Life have never been fair, if they compares with their same ages in third world countries. 

[Meredith Poor + 895]

On 12/24/2020 at 12:02 PM, Tom Nolan said:

Due to the debt, demographics, and monetary and fiscal policy failures, the long-term economic growth rate will run well below long-term trends.

Such will ensure the widening of the wealth gap, increases in welfare dependency, and capitalism giving way to socialism.

Long term economic growth might run below long term trend, but not for these reasons.

'Wealth Gap', 'Welfare Dependency', and 'Socialism' are all bullshit rationalizations salespeople use to hawk commodities, whether real (as in gold) or virtual (as in Bitcoin).

The first of the above sentences is so vague and widely applied as to be utterly meaningless. 'Whose debt' (presumably countries)? China, the US, Venezuela? Will 'monetary and fiscal policy failures' outweigh 'successes', and if so, 'whose failures'? Again, within the US, the EU, Japan, China?

Trend could run for 200 years (from the founding of the Republic) to Post WW II, to post 2008 Crash. What trend?

Anyone familiar with Marvin in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Anyone familiar with Marvin in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy?

Had to laugh at that.  He has a brain the size of a planet, yet is rarely given the chance to use it.