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Erin Bale

China into more LOCKDOWN ! People really should be careful with the current market "bull" !

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The news which China locked down another two major cities that are size of WUHAN is buried by all the market stimulus & vaccine hysteria.

But you people really got be careful, Chinese New Year( Entire East Asia celebrates it ) is coming, more infection and restriction from the oil demand / price drivers is in horizon ! 

These stimulus policy is very short term and actually cause more damage to economic and demand recovery.

Restraint production is also temporary with OPEC's influence waning and all the dormant oil producers coming back in near term.

I think overall the current oil bull is bubbling up for another micro-crash, not the kind in last year, but the price would be stagnant in low point for years to come.

Be warned and you can thank me later !

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Another point is these vaccines are emergency approval, its very questionable weather they actually provide real protection,  once or if something goes wrong, things will get ugly real quick...

 

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Opec and shale are already cut . Saudi and Russia could have flooded a non covid 2019 . Apples to oranges.  Sideways at best. Inflation is happening rapidly to oil. The virus doesn't effect thoes that consume oil and everyone will get it. It will make way for money to flow to younger healthier hands. Cold hard truth. 

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31 minutes ago, Rob Kramer said:

Opec and shale are already cut . Saudi and Russia could have flooded a non covid 2019 . Apples to oranges.  Sideways at best. Inflation is happening rapidly to oil. The virus doesn't effect thoes that consume oil and everyone will get it. It will make way for money to flow to younger healthier hands. Cold hard truth. 

yes inflation is happening, it would always happen, but the speed of the money printer, is not as quick as market sentiment shift.

Also, quantity of money isn't the determining factor of inflation btw.

The one that consume oil is about to be effected by the virus.

We will all get the virus, sure,  but thats again take decade to achieve supposed herd immunity

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3 minutes ago, Erin Bale said:

yes inflation is happening, it would always happen, but the speed of the money printer, is not as quick as market sentiment shift.

Also, quantity of money isn't the determining factor of inflation btw.

The one that consume oil is about to be effected by the virus.

We will all get the virus, sure,  but thats again take decade to achieve supposed herd immunity

Your warning is for very short term. The world needs to work. For oil theres supply demand, currency , and normal inflation.  On the other discussion you'll see how Russian currency will go up and Saudi need higher prices. Hence the 1M bd cut . So USD down other currency up. Real actual inflation. And supply constrained.  Not the same as strong USD little inflation and production in a pissing contest. Sideways from 52$ brent  at worst IMO. 

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2 hours ago, Rob Kramer said:

Your warning is for very short term. The world needs to work. For oil theres supply demand, currency , and normal inflation.  On the other discussion you'll see how Russian currency will go up and Saudi need higher prices. Hence the 1M bd cut . So USD down other currency up. Real actual inflation. And supply constrained.  Not the same as strong USD little inflation and production in a pissing contest. Sideways from 52$ brent  at worst IMO. 

yes, it is a short term of 2 years or so, but aftert that, all depends on peoples energy preference, and shale oil's direction, hard to say in long term, but doesnt look so good. EV alone can hurt oil even when jet fuel is in demand. There is also a transitional tendency towards Gas and Nuclear and clean energy.

Here is future  

Saudi Crown Prince launches zero-carbon city in NEOM business zone

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-neom-project/saudi-crown-prince-launches-zero-carbon-city-in-neom-business-zone-idUSKBN29F0L8?il=0

 

 

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(edited)

A lockdown in China is far different from a lockdown in any other country.  Lockdowns elsewhere achieve nothing; people are commanded to stay indoors, and nothing else is done for them, and the economy stops, and the virus continues transmission the moment people venture outside. In China, the lockdowns, now, are temporary, intended only to allow massive testing. China can test 10mm people in only 5 days. All food is supplied. When all results for all people are known, the healthy citizens are allowed to return to daily lives. The infected parties are treated and isolated, for free.  5 days lockdown of 2 cities does not kill an economy, but it does stop transmission.

Currently, China tests about 1mm people, to discover less than 10 infecteds. What other country would incur this cost and resources for so low a detection rate?  

For the record, since June 2020, ALL cases of covid are from "imports": people and goods. If China were to close its borders tightly, covid could be eradicated.

 

Edited by frankfurter

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