GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

11 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

the wiki article is confusing to someone not familiar with the specific terminology of upstream oil and gas.  oil shale (what the wikipedia refers to) is organic rich shale which is mined, then processed at surface with surfactants chemicals and heat to produce oil.  Shale oil is what is drilled into and fractured to produce oil and gas.  The energy ROI on shale oil is MUCH better - roughly in the lower third of the conventional oil return.  

Not sure I get it. Shale oil is no relative of oil shale than?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

28 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Actually both Chevron and Exxon are heavily invested in shale oil.  Exxon's domestic US shale operations are conducted mostly through it's subsidiary XTO (formerly Crosstimbers Oil) so it may not be obvious to a casual observer.  Both have pulled back from shale gas however as a long period of low natural gas prices in the US was (and to an extent still is) making it hard to make money on it.  

What about this "enhanced recovery" stuff Is it easier than conventional fracking or harder?

My impression is that there is not really such a thing as conventional vs fracking, but a gradual  spectrum of technologies of varying degree of aggressive.

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

9 hours ago, notsonice said:

Expected Chilly Winter Weather?????

Nat gas is going to drop under $4 in the next few days. Do you think it can hold at $3.60....... Looks like winter is on hold. Global warming is not a Hoax

 

NatGasWeather said Tuesday forecasts pointed to increasing warmth expectations for the first half of December, with milder adjustments spread across the 15-day projection period.

“The overnight data remained exceptionally bearish the rest of this work week and again Dec. 9-15 as most of the U.S. experiences temperatures 10-30 degrees warmer than normal,” the firm said. “…What also makes the overnight data bearish is that the end of the 15-day forecast was again quite warm with the upper pattern, suggesting bearish weather headwinds in the 10-15 day period will carry over to forecast days 16-20.”

Widespread cold, the forecaster added, may not arrive in the Lower 48 until the final week of December.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop on Warm Weather Forecast

 

Tue, November 30, 2021, 12:31 PM·1 min read

 

Natural gas broke down through support levels. The weather is expected much warmer than normal throughout the entire United States for the next 2-weeks which should put downward pressure on natural gas demand.

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, natural gas prices dropped falling through to support near the November lows at 4.65. Target support are the July lows at 3.60. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 4.96. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is reversed and turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is about to generate a crossover sell signal.

did you not get the memo, November was the much warmer than normal over most of the US

Did you say most of the world?

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP does not use cobalt.

Battery manufacturing efficiency increases and the rise in oil prices are off setting the rise in lithium prices. I know this is difficult for you to understand but lithium is a relatively small one time cost component in a battery that lasts for a couple decades. Expensive oil is a weekly cost component in an ICE vehicle.

But forget reality let's have some fun. So Ron, just when do you say EV sales are going to start decreasing? 

 

Just when did you say EVs reach 1% of vehicle stock?  Twenty years from now?

[Ecocharger + 1,374]

Oil prices look good going forward.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Remains-Bullish-On-Oil-Despite-OPEC-Decision.html

"The bank’s analysts said they see “very clear upside risks”, per a Bloomberg report, adding it expected an average price of $85 for Brent crude in 2023.

The Goldman analysts explained that U.S. shale oil producers would likely continue to stick to their cautious approach to production growth, especially after the latest price drop. At the same time, OPEC has a looming problem with production capacity, which will grow in severity the longer the group sticks to the OPEC+ agreement on output additions.

The investment bank earlier this week said that the plunge that oil took following the news of a new coronavirus variant was excessive, adding that traders “far overshot” the potential impact of the Omicron variant on global oil demand, pricing in a massive 7-million-bpd slump.

“To put this into context, this would represent any of these extreme outcomes: (1) not a single plane flying around the world for three months, or (2) half as intense as the 2Q20 global lockdown, or (3) a world even worst-off than before vaccinations,” Damien Courvalin, Head of Energy Research & Senior Commodity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note."

Edited December 3, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Not sure I get it. Shale oil is no relative of oil shale than?

Not really, no.  They come from different places, are recovered differently, processed differently, etc.  In a technical sense:  

oil shale is thermally immature kerogen (a mixture of solid stable hydrocarbons) rich shale which is close to surface in volumes large enough to mine (Estonia uses it 'straight' in a power plant like coal) and rich enough to make it worthwhile to process.  The D.O.E. (Department Of Energy) in the US funded a lot of research on how to use it to produce crude oil in the 1970's and early 1980's when oil prices were high, but it's basically worthless now - to much shale oil to make continued research worthwhile.  It's also an environmentally unpleasant process that uses a lot of water, and the best deposits happen to be in a very dry area.  Basically you mine the stuff, then grind it up in a ball mill, then treat it with a mixture of solvents and heat, then hopefully process the liquids to recover some of the solvents, separate the emulsified hydrocarbons from the water required in the processing, then send the hydrocarbons to a refinery.  

Shale oil is thermogenically mature oil and gas which is trapped in the high TOC (Total Organic Carbon) source rock due to low permeability and porosity and usually freed by drilling into the source rock horizontally, then fracturing it to aid in getting it to flow.  

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What about this "enhanced recovery" stuff Is it easier than conventional fracking or harder?

My impression is that there is not really such a thing as conventional vs fracking, but a gradual  spectrum of technologies of varying degree of aggressive.

Enhanced recovery is a catchall term for sorts of things used to get more oil out of a reservoir (steam floods, polymer injection, anaerobic bacteria, CO2 injection and more.  It is often used in conventional recovery and on wells which are fractured.

 

You are correct in the spectrum between conventional and fracturing.  The vast majority (maybe 90%) of 'conventional' wells utilize at least some fracturing if they are in sandy/quartz containing formations, or massive acid treatments which achieve similar effects in carbonate formations.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

19 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

You are correct in the spectrum between conventional and fracturing.  The vast majority (maybe 90%) of 'conventional' wells utilize at least some fracturing if they are in sandy/quartz containing formations, or massive acid treatments which achieve similar effects in carbonate formations.

The US fracking industries fell victim of the usual American propensity for used car salesmanship.

The Russians were doing all of the same things all along, but had neither a special name for it, nor separate PR. Take a look at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazhenov_Formation

It's a thingy that possibly connects all the oil fields in West Siberia. A million square kilometers in area, but only a few meters thick.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[notsonice + 1,062]

18 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The US fracking industries fell victim of the usual American propensity for used car salesmanship.

The Russians were doing all of the same things all along, but had neither a special name for it, nor separate PR. Take a look at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazhenov_Formation

It's a thingy that possibly connects all the oil fields in West Siberia. A million square kilometers in area, but only a few meters thick.

The US fracking industries fell victim???? BS babble , you have no idea what you are talking about and then you babble bs. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

6 minutes ago, notsonice said:

The US fracking industries fell victim???? BS babble , you have no idea what you are talking about and then you babble bs. 

They are not exactly popular with the environmentalist crowd, last I checked? Which is pretty much everybody and their mom in Europe these days.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Eric Gagen + 713]

28 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The US fracking industries fell victim of the usual American propensity for used car salesmanship.

The Russians were doing all of the same things all along, but had neither a special name for it, nor separate PR. Take a look at

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazhenov_Formation

It's a thingy that possibly connects all the oil fields in West Siberia. A million square kilometers in area, but only a few meters thick.

It's not entirely 'hype' or PR.  The processes used for exploiting oil shale are an extrapolation of the ones used for 'normal' wells, but figuring out quite how to do it efficiently enough to be worthwhile is a major engineering challenge.  As a petroleum engineer who has done work on all sorts of operations, when I first got involved in gas, and oil shales I thought it would be pretty straightforward, but it actually isn't.  A lot of different kinds of technologies all have to work right for any 1 oil or gas shale well to produce.  Many many places have the right geology, but  the 'genius' of the American way of doing it was to figure out how to mass produce the wells.  This is almost the exact opposite of how 'normal' oil and gas well drilling and completion processes are organized, with each well being treated as an individual project with separate requirements and needs.  Lots of other places have done a few wells like this, but outside the US, Canada, and Argentina, they are all in the science project stage where they are too inefficient by an order of magnitude to actually make it an attractive business venture.  

 

The Bazhenov is not being produced or explored in any serious way at the present.  

It IS a 'world class' shale resource play from at least several points of view (resource in place, areal extent, good surface access/rights, and it's in the middle of an area with a well developed oilfield infrastructure - similar to the Permian basin in Texas in that regard.  However the fact that it's thin in a lot of areas is a MASSIVE complication.  There are other characteristics which are poorly known that would affect it's ability to be a good producing zone (seals, potential for accidental water production, clay and swelling clay fraction, presence (or absence) of natural fractures and faults, rock plasticity etc.  However I am sure that within the Bazhenov there will be some sweet spots which are highly productive.  Right now the Russian upstream production industry just isn't set up to deal with it efficiently.  At some point someone will make a serious attempt though. Russia has the industrial resource base and technical knowledge to do it at hand  and we will see how it goes.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[notsonice + 1,062]

10 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They are not exactly popular with the environmentalist crowd, last I checked? Which is pretty much everybody and their mom in Europe.

what are you babbling about now.  You stated The US fracking industries fell victim???? still want to know to who ??? Fracking is the rule in US production. Pretty much everybody and their mom in Europe??? you and your mom in Europe are not everyone. In the US we do not run our lives or businesses based on you and your mom.

Edited December 3, 2021 by notsonice

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 minute ago, notsonice said:

what are you babbling about now.  You stated The US fracking industries fell victim???? still want to know to who ??? Fracking is the rule in US production. Pretty much everybody and their mom in Europe??? you and your mom in Europe are not everyone. In the US we do not run our lives or businesses based on you and your mom.

Some of you do. As in, you also increasingly got policies driven by environmental appeal. Which may, or may not be misguided.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Just when did you say EVs reach 1% of vehicle stock?  Twenty years from now?

EVs will be 50% of vehicle stock in 2040. 100% in 2050.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

If true, this would merely equate to economic EV segment growing faster than luxury. A Captain Obvious kind of expectation.

There is no economic EV segment without LFP. LFP has created the entire segment.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

24 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

There is no economic EV segment without LFP. LFP has created the entire segment.

Aye, aye, Captain!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

It wasn't obvious to Toyota until this year but now they agree that LFP has created the affordable EV segment:

Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car

Reuters reports Toyota is planning to release a “small and affordable electric sedan” in China next year:

“Toyota Motor Corp will launch an all-electric small sedan in China late next year, having turned to local partner BYD for key technology to finally make an affordable yet roomy runaround, four sources told Reuters.”

The electric vehicle is reportedly going to be powered by BYD’s blade battery cells with LFP chemistry.

A Toyota source talking to Reuters said that it is what is enabling the automaker to produce its first affordable all-electric car:

“The car was enabled by BYD battery technology. It has more or less helped us resolve challenges we had faced in coming up with an affordable small electric sedan with a roomy interior.”

The new electric vehicle will reportedly be slightly bigger than the Toyota Corolla and sell for less than under 200,000 yuan ($30,000).

https://electrek.co/2021/12/02/toyota-partners-byd-affordable-electric-car/

Edited December 3, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[notsonice + 1,062]

4 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Some of you do. As in, you also increasingly got policies driven by environmental appeal. Which may, or may not be misguided.

you were babbling about The US fracking industries fell victim???? now your response is more bs babble.  Dude, do you have any idea what you are babbling about?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

LFP does not use cobalt.

Battery manufacturing efficiency increases and the rise in oil prices are off setting the rise in lithium prices. I know this is difficult for you to understand but lithium is a relatively small one time cost component in a battery that lasts for a couple decades. Expensive oil is a weekly cost component in an ICE vehicle.

But forget reality let's have some fun. So Ron, just when do you say EV sales are going to start decreasing? 

 

The public is influenced by those who run the government. The government is influenced by crony capitalists who make the politicians rich. Investment in oil and natural gas has been suppressed by the crony bankers and investors. 

Electric vehicles get tax rebates. The upper middle class and wealthy will buy them and the poorer people will pay for the rebates. 

Where do you think the electricity is going to come from? Wind turbines combined with solar cannot do the job. Electricity will become far more expensive, and comparable with gasoline and diesel fuel. They will also end up paying a mileage tax IMHO. 

Used ICE vehicles are already selling like crazy. 

I have said that lithium is abundant, including in California. Why is it so expensive, because it is part of a new technology as a battery component. Edison built battery vehicles. Just not lithium. EVs are not new technology. 

I never said EVs would decrease in numbers. I said it would take a lot longer than you think for them to replace ICE vehicles. It will. They will cost the public more money overall because of a rush to build more wind and solar power. They are already causing a Green Nightmare due to the rush. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

9 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The public is influenced by those who run the government. The government is influenced by crony capitalists who make the politicians rich. Investment in oil and natural gas has been suppressed by the crony bankers and investors. 

Electric vehicles get tax rebates. The upper middle class and wealthy will buy them and the poorer people will pay for the rebates. 

Where do you think the electricity is going to come from? Wind turbines combined with solar cannot do the job. Electricity will become far more expensive, and comparable with gasoline and diesel fuel. They will also end up paying a mileage tax IMHO. 

Used ICE vehicles are already selling like crazy. 

I have said that lithium is abundant, including in California. Why is it so expensive, because it is part of a new technology as a battery component. Edison built battery vehicles. Just not lithium. EVs are not new technology. 

I never said EVs would decrease in numbers. I said it would take a lot longer than you think for them to replace ICE vehicles. It will. They will cost the public more money overall because of a rush to build more wind and solar power. They are already causing a Green Nightmare due to the rush. 

1. By your definition the investment in oil and gas is being suppressed by the free market. 

2. If so then it will mostly be because you and your crew supported cutting taxes for the wealthy.

3. Of course wind and solar can do the job.

4. Used ICE sales are up because no one is buying new ICE vehicles. Used EV sales are even crazier because of production constraints.

5. Lithium is up because demand for EVs has jumped faster than production. The price will come back down in a few years as production ramps up. Lithium EVs are new tech. Comparing them to lead battery EVs is the same as comparing a gasoline car to a coal powered steam car.

6. So you are saying that EV growth rate will decrease. When exactly is this going to happen? 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

18 hours ago, notsonice said:

Expected Chilly Winter Weather?????

Nat gas is going to drop under $4 in the next few days. Do you think it can hold at $3.60....... Looks like winter is on hold. Global warming is not a Hoax

 

NatGasWeather said Tuesday forecasts pointed to increasing warmth expectations for the first half of December, with milder adjustments spread across the 15-day projection period.

“The overnight data remained exceptionally bearish the rest of this work week and again Dec. 9-15 as most of the U.S. experiences temperatures 10-30 degrees warmer than normal,” the firm said. “…What also makes the overnight data bearish is that the end of the 15-day forecast was again quite warm with the upper pattern, suggesting bearish weather headwinds in the 10-15 day period will carry over to forecast days 16-20.”

Widespread cold, the forecaster added, may not arrive in the Lower 48 until the final week of December.

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop on Warm Weather Forecast

 

Tue, November 30, 2021, 12:31 PM·1 min read

 

Natural gas broke down through support levels. The weather is expected much warmer than normal throughout the entire United States for the next 2-weeks which should put downward pressure on natural gas demand.

Technical Analysis

On Tuesday, natural gas prices dropped falling through to support near the November lows at 4.65. Target support are the July lows at 3.60. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 4.96. The 10-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term downtrend is in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is reversed and turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is about to generate a crossover sell signal.

did you not get the memo, November was the much warmer than normal over most of the US

Some areas always get cold weather. National forests are usually near mountains that get cold and most national forests are up north. I live slightly north of the average latitude for America, and am enjoying balmy weather. High temperature here was 62 degrees in central Illinois. In some areas firewood is free, those with free wood and physical energy sometimes. 

The weather has always changed and always will. That does not mean that CO2 is a major factor in that change. Maybe it is, maybe not. China and Russia do not care. They need to be our main concern as do affordable prices for our people and a good economy for them. We need to follow a moderate path not a rushed green dream that will harm our economy and our people. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

1. By your definition the investment in oil and gas is being suppressed by the free market. 

2. If so then it will mostly be because you and your crew supported cutting taxes for the wealthy.

3. Of course wind and solar can do the job.

4. Used ICE sales are up because no one is buying new ICE vehicles. Used EV sales are even crazier because of production constraints.

5. Lithium is up because demand for EVs has jumped faster than production. The price will come back down in a few years as production ramps up. Lithium EVs are new tech. Comparing them to lead battery EVs is the same as comparing a gasoline car to a coal powered steam car.

6. So you are saying that EV growth rate will decrease. When exactly is this going to happen? 

 

I never stated number six. That is a lie. I said it would be a lot longer than you think, it is and will. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, ronwagn said:

I never stated number six. That is a lie. I said it would be a lot longer than you think, it is and will. 

Good grief, by saying that it will take a lot longer than I think then you are saying the growth rate will decrease. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

1. By your definition the investment in oil and gas is being suppressed by the free market. 

2. If so then it will mostly be because you and your crew supported cutting taxes for the wealthy.

3. Of course wind and solar can do the job.

4. Used ICE sales are up because no one is buying new ICE vehicles. Used EV sales are even crazier because of production constraints.

5. Lithium is up because demand for EVs has jumped faster than production. The price will come back down in a few years as production ramps up. Lithium EVs are new tech. Comparing them to lead battery EVs is the same as comparing a gasoline car to a coal powered steam car.

6. So you are saying that EV growth rate will decrease. When exactly is this going to happen? 

 

It will decrease when subsidies are removed and electric vehicles and infrastructure, and also pay for their use of the roads and freeways.

Here is another factor, chip production https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/11/29/electric-vehicles-semiconductors-chips-act/

U.S. will miss electric-vehicle targets without big investments in semiconductor manufacturing,

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It wasn't obvious to Toyota until this year but now they agree that LFP has created the affordable EV segment:

Toyota partners with BYD to build affordable $30,000 electric car

Reuters reports Toyota is planning to release a “small and affordable electric sedan” in China next year:

“Toyota Motor Corp will launch an all-electric small sedan in China late next year, having turned to local partner BYD for key technology to finally make an affordable yet roomy runaround, four sources told Reuters.”

The electric vehicle is reportedly going to be powered by BYD’s blade battery cells with LFP chemistry.

A Toyota source talking to Reuters said that it is what is enabling the automaker to produce its first affordable all-electric car:

“The car was enabled by BYD battery technology. It has more or less helped us resolve challenges we had faced in coming up with an affordable small electric sedan with a roomy interior.”

The new electric vehicle will reportedly be slightly bigger than the Toyota Corolla and sell for less than under 200,000 yuan ($30,000).

https://electrek.co/2021/12/02/toyota-partners-byd-affordable-electric-car/

I will be surprised to see that price in the USA, sans rebates. I am all for it though.